The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
The Morning Edition (May 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Angels get 4 HR off former teammate Santana to beat the Royals
- The Indians take out their Tigers frustration on the Red Sox, win 12-3
- Gausman doesn’t impress with results in his debut, falls to the Jays
- The Pirates get to Jackson, win 4-2
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Masterson looks to stay hot against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Danks makes his season debut against the Marlins (8p Eastern)
- Burnett heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to back up two good starts against the Friars (930p)
The Big Question:
- Who would you guess is the worst defensive team in the league?
I’d have said the Astros before I looked it up, but it’s the Angels. The Angels! They’re -37 DRS, -16.1 UZR, -10.3 UZR/150 which are all 30th best in the league. That seems really crazy to me given some of the great defenders they have, but with their overall struggles, some must be leaking into the defensive side. Let’s look. I set the minimum innings to 30 at a position and looked at the leaderboard. Here it is:
I know defensive numbers don’t stabilize this early, but that’s just not what you want to see for a team that should be pretty good on defense.
The Morning Edition (May 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cliff Lee delivers the CGSO against the Marlins
- Wilson strong as the Angels thump the Mariners
- Granderson comes up a 3B short of the cycle, but Kuroda leaves early as the Yanks fall
- Liriano out duels Sharky at PNC
- Bautista homers twice and then hits a walk off extra inning single
- Gio and Bumgarner duel but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Nats
- The Reds make Harvey look human, win in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Only four games on the schedule that don’t involve the Tigers, here are your matchups: Jackson/Gomez, Gausman/Morrow, McAllister/Dempster, Blanton/Santana
- I’d tell you I was watching Gausman, but I can’t because I live in NC and we aren’t legally allowed to watch the Orioles or Nationals play under any circumstances
The Big Question:
- How do you spend rain delays? (I stare off into space until there is something worth watching again.)
I’ve written a good deal about guys near the top of the WAR leaderboard, but I’m going for it again because I noticed something as of this moment: four of the top six players on the list are the guys I consider to be the four best in the game. Longoria (1), Cabrera (2), Votto (3), Trout (6). Trout and Longoria are elite two way players while Cabrera and Votto are the best hitters in their respective leagues. It’s not often that your expectations line up with reality so well, but here we are.
The Morning Edition (May 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Trout hits for the cycle
- Leake strong as the Reds beat the Mets 4-0
- McClouth walks off against the Yanks
- Garza sharp in his season debut, but Snider slams the Cubs pen to give the Bucs the W
- Greinke gets roughed up over 4 innings in Milwaukee
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey versus Latos at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Gio and Bumgarner throw from the left side in SF (330p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is a 4th AL 3B trying to get involved in this race?
Last week I talked about how Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Manny Machado led the AL in WAR, but a new AL 3B has moved into the #4 spot: Josh Donaldson. As I write this, he’s hitting .315/.391/.530 with a 152 wRC+ an 2.1 WAR, which is 9th in MLB. He’s flashed solid potential before, but nothing quite like this. In 300+ previous big league at bats he was a below average walker and above average strikeout guy who didn’t hit for average of power. In the minors he had some reasonable success, but it wasn’t anything spectacular. Now in 2013, he’s crushing. His BABIP (.353) is elevated, but he’s shown a higher BABIP in various minor league stints so it’s not like it is guaranteed to regress dramatically. I left him out of my top 9 3B to start the year and I think I’m sticking with that, but for now, the best 3 players in the AL play 3B and one of them is Josh Donaldson.
The Morning Edition (May 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chapman gives up 2 HR in the 9th to Katz and Galvis and blows it in Philly
- Moore twirls 7 innings of 1 run ball, gets help from a Joyce homerun that was reviewed for 9 minutes to win 3-1
- Locke and Harrell duel to a 1-0 Pirates victory
- Ozuna backs Nolasco’s 11 Ks to take one from Arizona
- The Indians rough up Felix, Masterson Ks 11 in 7 innings for a 6-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Under the radar Iwakuma tries to salvage one in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Odorizzi makes his Rays debut against Dickey and the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Cueto returns versus the Mets (7p Eastern)
- Lester faces the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw comes to Milwaukee after dominating his last time out (8p Eastern)
- Corbin on the mound in Colorado (830p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will you divide up your MLB viewing today?
The Marlins are just above the Tigers 43-119 pace from 2003 and are currently tracking toward 44 wins. Their team slash line is an incredible .221/.284/.317. In 2012, four players hit between .220 and .230 and slugged between .310 and .320. Here’s the list: Peter Bourjos (195 PA), Anthony Gose (189 PA), Jose Lobaton (197 PA), and Carlos Triunfel (24 PA). Put it this way, the Marlins as a team are hitting like four players who couldn’t get 200 PA on another team. The average Miami Marlin couldn’t even platoon in the majors. The 2013 Marlins are worse than Don Kelly’s career line, who has made a career being a defense first 13th man who can play many positions. The Marlins are fielding a team that is below replacement level (-1.6 WAR). That’s happening.
The Morning Edition (May 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jordan Zimmermann gives up 1 ER in 8 innings…and loses…to the Padres
- Gattis and Simmons go back to back to back Medlen in his duel with Capuano
- Parra hits a leadoff homer and then McCarthy delivers a CGSO as the Dbacks beat the Fish 1-0
- Tampa Bay gets 6 runs in the 9th to beat the Orioles 10-6
- The Indians win on a walk off fielder’s choice (what?!)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces Masterson in Cleveland (1p Eastern)
- Dickey and CC try to regain Cy Young creds (1p Eastern)
- Matt Moore looks to complete the sweep in Baltimore (130p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are McCarthy’s peripherals finally lining up with the results?
I made a comment on Twitter last night that Carlos Gomez was impressively leading the league in WAR (2.7) and was 9th in the league in wRC+ (170) despite just a 3.9% walk rate. Since I wrote that, those numbers have fluctuated just a bit, but the idea holds up. So I was curious, who had the best low walk season in the last ten years? Since 2004, the best qualifying seasons for players who walked 5.0% of the time or less are:
5. Freddy Sanchez 2006 – 4.9% BB, 4.5 WAR
4. Brandon Phillips 2007 – 4.7% BB, 4.7 WAR
3. Carl Crawford 2005 – 3.9% BB, 4.8 WAR
2. Ichiro 2009 – 4.7% BB, 5.1 WAR
1. Adrian Beltre 2011 – 4.8% BB, 5.3 WAR
Each of those seasons feature a strong defensive effort and low K%, but if you’re curious the best <5% BB season since 2004 with a negative UZR belongs to Adam Jones (2012) who walked 4.8% of the time and posted a 4.4 WAR (7th overall). Also, apparently walking didn’t used to be as cool as it is today, because I then queried a search back to 1980 and Beltre’s 2011 season turned up to be 15th in the last 34 years. Kirby Puckett’s 1988 reigns with 3.9% BB and 7.1 WAR. I’m serious. He hit .356/.375/.545. That’s crazy. Puckett’s 1988 is the best <5.0% BB season, not just since 1980, but also since 1932.
The Morning Edition (May 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Upton slams the Braves past the Dodgers
- Goldschmidt’s 2 bombs back Cahill’s 8 inning gem
- Kuroda blanks the Jays over 8, wins 5-0
- Hellickson gives up 8 runs in 7.2 innings…and gets a win in a 12-10 affair over the O’s
- Kipnis walks off in extras over the M’s
- Phillies bullpen tries to spoil a nice outing by Lee, but the offense bails them out against the Reds
- Harvey twirls 7.2 strong innings and drives in the winning run against the Cubs
What I’m Watching Today:
- Quietly strong Zach McAllister faces the Mariners in an attempt to pad his stats (1p Eastern)
- Burnett gets the Astros at home, watch for Ks (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to follow his strong outing against the Marlins 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann faces the Padres at Petco (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do people still take pitcher wins seriously after Hellickson gave up 8 runs and still earned one on Friday?
If I gave you 5 guesses as to who baseball’s best hitter is so far (as of 11:21pm Friday night), would you get it? Miguel Cabrera might be your guess and that’s close, but he’s percentage points behind the leader. Maybe Upton? Or Longoria? Or Choo? All good guesses, but it’s actually Paul Goldschmidt. The Dbacks slugging first baseman has a nice season and a half to his name in the big leagues, but he’s taken a step forward so far this season. His plate discipline is improving and his power is better, while also buoyed by a little good luck. Right now his 185 wRC+ is a fraction of a point ahead of Cabrera and his .338/.421/.656 line is a thing of beauty.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
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