The Morning Edition (June 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clete Thomas goes 4-4 as the Twins beat the Phils
- Miller K’s 10 but gives up 4 as the Cards fall to the Mets
- The Pirates outslug the Giants 12-8
- Frazier homers to lift Leake over Wood and the Cubs
- The Angels beat the O’s despite an 0-5 from Trout
What I’m Watching Today:
- WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY. WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY (1p Eastern)
- Guys, Wainwright and Harvey!
- Latos versus Sharky (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Jays again (8p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee heads to Minnesota (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Wainwright and Harvey a Cy Young battle?
That’s a bit of a misnomer, but it’s easily one of the top duels we’ve seen so far this season even if it won’t actually determine who wins the Cy Young. But it should inform who gets to start the All-Star Game. Verlander and Darvish was close as far as how each pitcher had performed up to that point, but not quite. Let’s look at the big one tomorrow:
Wainwright: 9-3, 93 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 3.8 WAR
Harvey: 5-0, 90 IP, 2.10 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 3.0 WAR
The two starters are 26th and 9th in K/9, 1st and 22nd in BB/9, 8th and 5th in ERA, 1st and 3rd in FIP, 2nd and 6th in xFIP, and 1st and 4th in WAR in MLB. So yeah, that’s pretty good. Watch it. And while you’re waiting for that one to start, check out New English D’s newest feature: New English D Audio.
The Morning Edition (June 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marlins win a 20 inning marathon against the Mets
- Darvish and Buehrle both go 7, but it takes 18 for the Jays to beat the Rangers
- Danks goes 8 as the Sox win with 3 in the 8th over the A’s
- Pettitte wins #250 against the Mariners
- Gausman gets shelled, again
- Twins beat the Nats in 11
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Twins (1p Eastern)
- Moore tries to shake off his last outing against the O’s (130p Eastern)
- The still underappreciated Felix Hernandez gets the Yankees (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So the Marlins and Mets, eh?
Let’s review. The Mets and Marlins were tied 1-1 after 9 innings of baseball. At this point, Harvey and Fernandez had both been strong and the bullpens had combined for 5 scoreless innings. There were still 11 innings left. In the innings that followed two pitchers would each throw more than both team’s starters! Slowey went 7 in relief, allowing 8 hits, 0 BB, and 8 K. Marcum went 8, allowing 5 hits and a run with 0 BB and 8 K. That’s right, the Mets walked 2 batters in 20 innings and lost. Only twice in MLB history has a team lost a game in which they walked 2 or fewer hitters in 18 or more innings. Perhaps even more remarkable, this was the 2nd 15+ inning game between the clubs this year starter by Fernandez and Harvey.
The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
The Morning Edition (June 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The first night of the MLB Draft features some surprises, Appel, Bryant, Gray go 1-2-3
- Rosales’ 10th inning HR beats the White Sox
- Four run 8th gets the Royals past the Twins
- Miller, after being named to my Appointment TV list, Ks 9 in 6 innings and homers as the Cards beat the Dbacks
- Ortiz walks off as Holland and Lester both meander through 6
What I’m Watching Today:
- Middle rounds of the MLB Draft (1p Eastern)
- Harvey and Hernandez face off in New York (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces the Reds (7p Eastern)
- Lee heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Cain versus Corbin in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kuroda gets Bonderman’s 2nd start (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which clubs will look back on last night as a building block en route to a title?
I’m not the world’s best guy for draft analysis, but I’ll give you my brief thoughts. First of all, if you’re looking for who went where, I can direct you here, among other places. The reason I’m not the best guy for draft analysis is not because I don’t know anything about amateur baseball, but rather because I don’t like to give analysis that isn’t based on my own observation. Almost everyone who was and will be drafted this weekend are guys I haven’t seen myself, so I’d rather direct you to guys like Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo or Baseball America. I could give you reports about guys based on things I’ve read, but you can read. I’m much more useful to you as someone who analyzes baseball players I’ve seen in person and on TV and in the box score. I have, however, seen Colin Moran, who went 6th overall to the Marlins. He’s a 3B with a great approach and a very good hit tool. Some question if the power will come and if he can stick at third, but I’m bullish there. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but a good approach can play for me. Here are some picks I liked from the first day:
Plenty of teams got good players, but those stand out to me as teams who made good choices when presented with a lot of options.
The Morning Edition (June 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners and White Sox take a 0-0 game into the 14th, each score 5, but the Sox win it in 16
- CarGo hits 3 HR and Tulo hits 2 HR as the Rockies smash the Reds
- Byrd homers twice to back a solid outing by Gee over the Nats
- Dickey helps his own cause at the plate and nearly misses a CGSO
- Hamels finally looks like Hamels, striking out 11 Marlins
- Sabathia gives up 4, but gets the CG win against the Indians
- Teheran nearly no-hits the Pirates
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester and Holland duel in Boston (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Dbacks, looks to earn Appointment Television title in the process (8p Eastern)
- Greinke tries to straighten out against the Braves (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will populate the top picks in today’s draft?
While there is plenty of exciting baseball on today, the MLB Draft will take center stage for most die hard fans. Unlike the NFL Draft, the MLB version doesn’t turn itself into an entire season in and of itself, but rather calls attention to itself in more subtle and sophisticated ways. Only a handful of mock drafts are done and only the first two rounds get airtime. A few names to know for the first pick are Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, Kris Bryant, and Colin Moran, but it still remains unclear as to who the Astros will take first overall. I’m hoping for the Tar Heel, Moran, not because he’s the best, but because I’m a grad student at UNC and am hoping he drops several hundred dollars on his way back from signing the contract. If you’re new to the process, the key difference between the MLB Draft and others is that MLB teams are always drafting the best player available and do not focus on their current positional needs. NFL picks are expected to contribute right away, but MLB picks go through a seasoning process. For example, the Tigers will take a 3B with their pick if he’s the best player left even though they have a big of a logjam at the position. If you’re looking for a primer on the top picks, I suggest Mark Anderson’s work at BPN:
The Morning Edition (June 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jeremy Bonderman’s return doesn’t go well, gives up 7 ER in 4.2 to the Twins
- The Angels lose their 3rd straight to the Astros fall to 25-32
- Darvish narrowly outduels Santana, but has to sweat as his bullpen nearly costs them
- The Dbacks back Corbin’s 9th W
- Lee Ks 11 in 7.2 innings to beat the Crew
- Dusty waits to use his closer and it costs him a win against the Pirates
- The Fish hit Harvey and sweep the Mets
- The Rays rough up the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Masterson vs Pettitte in NY (7p Eastern)
- Burnett and Medlen face off in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Under the radar Cahill and Lynn draw each other at Busch (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Puig do in his MLB debut?
If you follow me on Twitter or were an early regular at New English D, you know I was very invested in Jeremy Bonderman’s comeback today. It didn’t go well. Because the Tigers were in Baltimore I had to have the Tigers on the radio, which gave me a chance to watch Bonderman on television. He had a fastball from 89-92 and a good slider at times, and he struck out the first batter he faced and delivered a 1-2-3 first inning. If you followed his career as a Tiger, you know the first inning gave him nightmares. But from there it unraveled as he allowed 3 runs in the 2nd and 2 runs in each of the 4th and 5th innings before being removed from the game. He struck out just one batter. He actually kept the ball down and had decent movement on his pitches, but without a good offspeed pitch, it’s hard to be successful as a starter if you don’t have a big fastball. It sounds like he’ll get another shot in five days, but if nothing else, he made it back to the big leagues. I’ll always be rooting for him even if he doesn’t have much left. He has something left.
The Morning Edition (June 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Ubaldo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rays
- The Twins walk off on the Mariners
- Miller throws 7 scoreless, Wainwright goes the distance and allows one run as the Cards sweep the Giants in a DH
- Oakland literally walks off against the Sox
- Rockies walk off on the Dodgers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Marlins, expect strikeouts (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee goes against the Crew (130p Eastern)
- Jeremy Bonderman is back on an MLB mound against the Twins (2p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Darvish toes the slab against the Royals (3p Eastern)
- Buchholz and Kuroda in NY (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Does playing a different position really affect you at the plate?
You may have heard recently that Mike Trout is crushing at the plate again after his early season slump because he’s back in CF while Bourjos is on the DL. I’ve got to say, this is silly. Very. I could buy the argument if he was struggling when playing a more difficult position. For example, if you move from 1B to 3B and struggle at the plate because you have to work on your defense, that could make sense. But Trout was moving to an easier spot, why would that affect him? It wouldn’t. He’s a world class 21 year old athlete coming off a crazy good season. It’s nonsense to think he was affected at the plate by a position change that put him in a spot that was too easy. Ken Rosenthal has led the way on this topic and points to this split:
Trout 2013 as LF:.247/.327/.412
Trout 2013 as CF: .324/.400/.632
But that’s normal variation. Rosenthal and others just saw it and went for it as something to write about to gin up controversy. Here’s how I know:
Trout 2012 as LF: .326/.395/.645
Trout 2012 as CF: .329/.404/.542
If Trout was affected psychologically by playing out of position, why didn’t affect him last season? This is random noise in his production over the course of the season that happened to correlate with a teammates injury. Want better evidence?
Trout 2013 in Odd Numbered Games: .401 OBP
Trout 2013 in Even Numbered Games: .339 OBP
Look, Mike Trout is better during odd numbered games. The Angels should sit him today. Give me a break.
The Morning Edition (June 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland and the Rangers pile on the Royals
- Strasburg leaves with an oblique injury, but the Nats manage to win 3-2
- Jacob Turner goes 7 strong to beat the Mets
- Another rough outing for Hamels as the Phils fall to the Crew
- Cueto throws 8 scoreless to beat the Bucs
- Sabathia gets 10 K to beat the Sox
- Another good start by Garza beats the Dbacks
- Bartolo Colon CGSO
- Rays and Indians start late in Cleveland
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Miller try again in St. Louis (1p Eastern)
- Greinke travels to Coors 4p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Wainwright in game two (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Chris Davis, are you buying or selling?
I’ve remained cautiously skeptical of the Davis breakout, as one should. Entering 2013, he was a career .258/.310/.466 hitter, which is perfectly league average 100 wRC+. Career 6.5 BB%, 31.0 K%. Barely above replacement level. This year, he’s .356/.442/.749, good for 209 wRC+. Everyone wants to believe, but I can’t. He’s never done anything like this and I just don’t think he’s changed his approach enough to sustain star level performance. The power is real, but I don’t buy the average and walk rate. I don’t usually like to be the negative guy, but here we are. Valverde nights will do that to you.
The Morning Edition (May 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey and Kuroda deliver a classic duel in NY
- Lee dominates the Red Sox, wins 3-1
- Rays walk off against the Marlins
- McCann homers in the 10th to lift the Braves over the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Orioles in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to stay hot against the Rangers (8p Eastern)
- Weaver returns to action against the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you like some of these home and home series in MLB?
Cliff Lee in 2013: 7.03 K/9, 1.45 BB/9, 0.56 HR/9, 39.1 GB% 2.34 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 2.0 WAR
Rick Porcello in 2013: 7.06 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 55.7 GB%, 5.29 ERA, 3.93 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 0.7 WAR
Once their HR/FB rates normalize (5.5% to 19.4%), they’re basically the same pitcher with Porcello getting the ball on the ground more often. I’m not saying Porcello is going to be Cliff Lee, but so far, it’s not such a crazy thought. (Innings aside)
The Morning Edition (May 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mets rally late to back a strong outing by Niese against the Yanks
- Samardzija drops a CGSO against the cross town Sox
- Aaron Harang also provides a CGSO against San Diego
- Skaggs is sharp at the front of a doubleheader
- Wainwright goes 8 to beat Shields and the Royals 6-3
- Gomez homers twice, but the Crew lose to the Twins
- The Astros walk off in 12 versus the Rockies
- Votto’s 8th inning homer leads the Reds over the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gausman takes his second turn, gets the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Yankees for the first time (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee comes to Boston (7p Eastern)
- Chris Sale tries to take one from the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is the new schedule dulling interleague play?
Danny Knobler at CBS wrote yesterday how little buzz there is for this week’s big interleague matchups and I’m in total agreement. Interleague play, which is the scorn of my father’s generation, used to feel special for me. It would be fun to spend a couple weeks watching players from the NL that I usually didn’t get to watch up close. Now, those teams are sprinkled into the normal schedule after nearly 20 years of being confined to a fortnight or so in June. The novelty has really lost its luster. It feels strange and awkward and forced. It’s either time to add two more teams and dump interleague play or get rid of the pretense all together and play all 29 clubs.
New English D 