The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
The Morning Edition (April 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Phillies and Reds remain tied in the 9th inning as play was suspended with the score 0-0
- In a wonderful display of patriotism, Yankee Stadium plays “Sweet Caroline” between innings of a 4-2 win
- Braves hit five homeruns and improve to 12-1 on the season
What I’m Watching Today:
- Justin Masterson takes on the Red Sox in Cleveland looking to build on strong start (7p Eastern)
- Cards’ rookie Shelby Miller takes the hill against AJ Burnett and the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- The brilliant and wild Matt Moore takes on the O’s (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw is pitching (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer face off in the battle for the soul of Fangraphs (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s the record for most games ahead of 2nd place for a team through 13 games? Braves have to be close. 4.5 ahead of the Mets and Nats as I write this.
Of note on Tuesday was hearing “Sweet Caroline” at Yankee Stadium in honor of those affected by the tragedy in Boston. That’s a relatively powerful statement of solidarity that should bring fear to the hearts of those responsible. Additionally, the Braves won a baseball game, which should not surprise us at this point. They’re 12-1 over their first 13 games but the only offensive star who is producing is Justin Upton. The other guys who are contributing are names like Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, and, I kid you not, Ramiro Pena. Uggla, Simmons, Heyward, and the elder Upton are all struggling. The NL East should shudder at the thought of a Braves team in which all of those players are performing even reasonably well. I would also like to point out Edwin Jackson’s stat line for the season because it is just ridiculous. He’s 0-2 in 3 starts over 16.1 innings and has a 6.06 ERA which sounds awful. But he has an 11.02 K/9, 5.51 BB/9, and .260 FIP. Early season numbers mean very little, but that’s just silly. That’s a technical term, silly.
The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
- The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
- Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
- The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7
What I’m Watching Today:
- MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
- Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
- Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
- The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?
Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.
Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.
It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.
Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.
The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
- Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
- Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
- Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)
I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).
- 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
- 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
- March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP
That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.
So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
The Morning Edition (April 6, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Josh Hamilton goes 0-4 with 2K as his Angels fall to the Rangers in his return to Arlignton
- Gordon and Hosmer lead the way as the Royals pummel the Phillies 13-4
- Zito outduels Westbrook in a 1-0 win over the Cards
- The Reds throw down the gauntlet in the NL with a 15-0 thumping of the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller makes his second big league start as his Cards take on the Giants (4p Eastern)
- Julio Tehran tries to build on his hot spring against the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Trevor Bauer makes his Tribe debut against Rays youngster Alex Cobb (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw goes for an encore in LA against AJ Burnett and the Bucs (9p Eastern)
The Big Question
- How long can Chris Davis keep this up?
In 18 PA this season Davis has 4 HR and a .600/.611/1.600 line. Obviously, that pace is a bit unsustainable, but at some point it just becomes ridiculous even in the short run. He’ll get to face Vance Worley tomorrow, against whom he has not recorded a hit in three trips to the plate. Davis, as it appears, will win the New English D “Race to 1.0 WAR” very shortly. He has 0.9 as of this writing. Today, MLB on Fox begins their final season in which they will terrorize our Saturdays by blacking games out. Starting in 2014, MLB.TV won’t go dark on Saturday afternoons. Luckily, the Tigers play the Yankees, so Fox will let me watch. Additionally of note, New English D will publish our usually Saturday edition of The Nine later today with a focus, likely, on ballpark food.
For your reading pleasure, below is a strike zone plot of Prince Fielder’s at bat against Boone Logan from Friday. Observe the location of the pitch that Fielder hit into the seats. A pitcher should reasonably be able to assume that if he misses the strike zone by that much that he should be safe from such outcomes.
So Shawn Kelley tried this when he faced Fielder in the 7th. I would not recommend this.
The Morning Edition (April 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rays fall to the Orioles after Evan Longoria was called out in the middle of a rally for passing Ben Zobrist on the bases. Replay didn’t show conclusive evidence, but he appear to remain behind the runner
- Choo powers the Reds past the Angels as Chapman gets Pujols and Hamilton to the end the game with the tying run on second
- The Nats complete a three-game sweep of the Marlins to start the year
- Cliff Lee dominates the Braves in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Josh Hamilton returns to Arlington for the first time as an Angel (2p Eastern)
- Wade Davis makes his Royals debut against the Phillies (4p Eastern)
- The Cardinals visit San Francisco in an NLCS rematch (435p Eastern)
- Josh Johnson makes his first AL start at home against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore begins what I expect to be a great sophomore season against the Indians in St. Pete (7p Eastern)
- Zach Greinke wears the Dodger blue for the first time (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will early season bullpen blowups continue?
One of the things I was thinking about yesterday was a topic I’m sure we’ll be talking about for years. Harper or Trout? I’ve been on the Trout side of that debate for a while and I’m not ready to change my mind, but Bryce Harper just keeps doing things that make me like him. He’s fun to watch run the bases and he’s mashing early. Those two will be a lot of fun to watch this season. We’re just three or four games into the season, but it’s already been a fun year. Lots of games are going down to the wire and we’ve seen a lot of great starting pitching and late inning heroics. The Mets and Nats are leading the way on the hill and we’ll turn the league over and get another shot to see the aces again Saturday and Sunday.
New English D 