Tag Archives: red sox

The Morning Edition (July 4, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Felix and Holland hold both clubs to 2 runs, but the bullpens settle it in 10 on a Seager bomb
  • Gomes walks off on the Padres
  • Nolasco does well in front of the scouts, beats the Braves
  • Norris pitches well in trade audition to beat the Rays
  • CC goes 7 to beat the Twins
  • Grilli gives up 2 runs, gets a save anyway because the save rule is silly
  • Lohse twirls a gem to top the Nats

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Cain and Leake in Cinci (1p Eastern)
  • Gerrit Cole Hamles matchup! (1p Eastern)
  • Shields continues to get no help from his team (2p Eastern)
  • Wainwright takes on the Angels (9p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s your take on the no-hitter war?

Brian Kenny, who we’re quite fond of at New English D, took to the airwaves and Twitter on Wednesday to mock the attention give to no-hitters because walks and hit batters are part of the game and that separating it into hits and other ways to get on base is misguided. While I understand the sentiment and am I big believing in walks as offensive weapons, there is a different argument that Kenny hasn’t responded to at this point. No hitters are not always great performances, I fully agree. A one hit shutout is better than a 5 walk no hitter, but no hitters in all their forms are much rarer that no walk games. Since 1916, there have been more than 9,000 CG with no BB or HBP, but less than 300 CG with no hits. Less than 30 with no baserunners, period. The point here is that one baserunner is one baserunner no matter how he gets on, but it is much rarer to allow no hits than no walks and that is something worth celebrating. Kenny is right that the mainstream press doesn’t cover one hitters appropriately compared to no hitters with several walks, but I think the problem is in the other direction. Kenny thinks no-hitters are no big deal when the pitcher walks a couple guys, but I think we just don’t give enough credit to 1 and 2 hitters. Here at New English D, we make an attempt to highlight all great pitching performances, but do value the no hitter because the no hitter is rare and it’s quirky. After all, baseball is fun. I don’t usually disagree with Kenny, but on this issue I do.

The Homer Bailey (Morning) Edition (July 3, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Homer Bailey pitches his second career no-hitter, first in MLB this season, against the Giants
  • Bailey walked 1 and struck out 9 across 109 pitches
  • Bailey is now 11th among pitchers in WAR at 2.9, has a 3.57 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.97 xFIP in 111 IP
  • He is getting more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more groundballs than last year

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  • He did it basically with a fastball and slider, with a handful of changeups and curves mixed in

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  • He Verlander’d them, throwing harder as the game went on

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Harvey Day! (7p Eastern)
  • Felix faces Holland in Texas (8p Eastern)
  • Shelby Miller heads to the big A (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Did anything else interesting happen that didn’t make the cut in the headlines section?

Lackey was pretty good, some other stuff happened. First no-hitter in New English D history. Exciting stuff!

The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
  • Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
  • Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
  • Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
  • Darvish beats Latos
  • The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
  • Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
  • Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
  • Sox walk off on the Jays

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
  • Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
  • Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s a realistic season for Puig?

The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.

The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
  • Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
  • Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
  • Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
  • Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
  • Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
  • Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
  • Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
  • Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
  • Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
  • Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
  • The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Will Chris Sale have another great outing?

I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.

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I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.

The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
  • Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
  • Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
  • Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
  • Garza dominates the Brewers
  • Kluber gets shelled

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
  • Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
  • James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
  • Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
  • Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is this finally the year for the Pirates?

As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.

The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
  • Gordon walks off on the Braves
  • Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
  • Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
  • Lackey dominates the Rockies
  • Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
  • AJ Griffin CGSO
  • Dickey CGSO

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
  • NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?

We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.

The Morning Edition (June 26, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Chris Sale went 8, gave up 2 ER, had 13 K and left with the lead. He didn’t get the win. The guy who blew the save did.
  • Matt Moore does a Matt Moore impression with 11 K and 6 BB, wins
  • The Red Sox score 11 without a HR
  • Ichiro walks off as Darvish and Kuroda are ordinary
  • Casilla hit as many homeruns as Chris Davis, 1 each

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Felix faces the Pirates (330p Eastern)
  • Zimmermann takes the hill (7p Eastern)
  • Cole Hamels against the Padres (10p Eastern)
  • Kershaw and Lincecum (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Come on guys, can we leave Chris Sale alone?

Seriously, I want to discredit the win stat too, but can it not keep happening to the same guy. But. BUT! Let’s play a game regarding Astros pitcher Erik Bedard. Let’s explore his ERA and FIP by month:

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He’s getting a lot better each month. This is good news. I bet he’s striking out more batters than he was at the beginning of the season.

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Oh. Well. I bet he’s walking fewer people!

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Well he is, but he’s still walking and awful lot of people. Hmmm, this is tricky. Maybe it’s because he is allowing fewer homeruns?

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Yeah, that’s probably it. Sorry, Bedard this probably isn’t sustainable!

How Was The Game? (June 23, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Bizarre.

Tigers 7, Red Sox 5

Despite the fact that starting pitching is the hallmark of the 2013 Tigers and the fact that Justin Verlander (8-5, 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.8 WAR) entered the season as one of the game’s top starters, today wasn’t really a day for such things to be on display. Verlander was inefficient and off his mark, going just 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 runs, and 3 walks while only striking out 4. He wasn’t knocked around, but he was not the master of the mound that we have come to expect. A key issuse, today at least, was the lack of horizontal movement on his curveball. Take a look at this comparison between his start today and his game averages last season:

pic1 pic2

 

His teammates helped him out, however, as Cabrera and Fielder knocked in runs in the first, Holaday scored on a passed ball in the 2nd, and then Jhonny Peralta delivered the tying run on a bases loaded hit by pitch in the 7th. It was a funky game that included a ridiculous play by Victor Martinez and a play in which Dustin Pedroia dropped a line drive, only to failed to get a double play because Napoli tagged the base before he tagged the immobile Jackson. Then of course, there was the 8th inning fly ball that Nava caught cleanly in RF that turned into a double because…well…I’m not entirely sure. The umpires just totally missed it. Then Holaday tried to sacrifice bunt and reached on an error and Jackson walked to set up a Torii Hunter go-ahead sac fly and a Prince Fielder go-further-ahead 2 RBI single. Thanks to some solid relief work by Smyly and Benoit (who gave up 1 R), the Tigers road the strange inning to a series win and a 42-32 record overall. They’ll take Monday off before turning to  Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.3 WAR) to start the three game set with the Angels.

The Moment(s): Victor Martinez makes a circus play at first AND Garcia doubles on a fly out.

Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013

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In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.

Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.

Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.

Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).

57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)

Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS

51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)

Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS

49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)

Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS

19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)

Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS

18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)

McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH

11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)

All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH

9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)

Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)

Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT

7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH

6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT

5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)

Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS

4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)

Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:

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I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS

3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)

Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT

2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)

Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT

1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)

Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:

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Not bad. HIT

Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.

How Was The Game? (June 22, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

Nice and comfortable.

Tigers 10, Red Sox 3

Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.3 WAR) gave up two runs in the first inning and then the offense unloaded and he remembered he is now MAX SCHERZER in capital letters.

Despite the two early runs, Scherzer finished with a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 run, 0 walk, and 6 strikeout evening, adding to his brilliant season and Cy Young campaign. Scherzer now leads all AL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 3.3 (also in Run Support per 9 with 7.83). I mean, check this out. He threw almost nothing off the plate inside:

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The bats did more than enough, as Martinez got the scoring going with a 1st inning grand slam, before Jackson drove in a run in the 4th, and the Tigers took off with 2 more in the 5th and 7th each and 1 in the 8th. After the 1st inning, it was never really in doubt as Scherzer shifted into cruise control and allowed just three additional baserunners to earn his his team the victory. The win lifts the Tigers to 41-32 and they will go for the series win against the AL leading Red Sox behind the forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.7 WAR).

The Moment: Victor Martinez hits a first inning grand slam, goes 2-3 with a GS, 2B, 2 BB, 5 RBI, and 3 R