How Was The Game? (June 21, 2013)
Not for the purists.
Red Sox 10, Tigers 6
The box score just looks ugly. Both starters allowed 4 run innings and both teams had 10 or more hits. It was one of those traffic on the bases, always threatening games. Doug Fister (6-5, 96 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.7 WAR) had an ugly line, but most of the damage came on groundballs that found holes and that’s just something you live with when you have such an extreme groundball pitcher on the mound. Usually it works nicely for him. Fister finished with 3.1 inning, 11 hits, 6 runs, 1 BB, and 0 K. The offense did fine work as Pena singled in a run in the 2nd and the Tigers got 4 in the 5th on a Dirk solo shot and a Cabrera 3 run HR. The bullpen surrendered 4 additional runs, but two of which came without the benefit of a hit and one came on a Garcia error, so you can’t really blame them. The Tigers will try to secure no worse than a split behind Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.1 WAR) on Saturday, who is making a case to start the All-Star game.
The Moment: Cabrera launches a 3 run HR.
How Was The Game? (June 20, 2013)
Not a bad ending.
Tigers 4, Red Sox 3
The buzz around the Tigers today was about the bullpen situation, but despite Leyland giving Coke the ball when it should have gone to Smyly, it wasn’t the Tigers bullpen that would be the story. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 0.1 WAR) did solid work across 5 innings of 2 run baseball against a very strong offense and Putkonen, Coke, and Smyly combined to allow just one additional run. The bats were unable to get more than two runs in the first 8 innings, however, as a Torii Hunter 2 run single was the only scoring the Tigers could muster against Lackey and company until Martinez walked to start the 9th inning against Bailey and then Jhonny Peralta stepped to the plate and lined a slider into the Tigers bullpen to end the game. I know it doesn’t matter, but I said to my wife before the inning started that Martinez was going to walk and Jhonny was going to walk off. It felt good as the Tigers delivered their first walk off win of the season. If you’re going to lose one in this series, it certainly should be the Alvarez game but the Tigers survived it and can now turn to Fister, Scherzer, and Verlander the rest of the way, who are among the best dozen starting pitchers in baseball so far this season. It will be Doug Fister (6-4, 92.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who will get the ball Friday night at Comerica Park.
The Moment: Jhonny Perlata walks off into the Tigers bullpen.
The Morning Edition (June 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bruce ties it in the 9th and Phillips wins it in the 13th as the Reds beat the Bucs 2-1
- Myers drives in his first two to lead the Rays over the Sox
- Medlen shuts down the Mets
- Papelbon allows the Nats to tie it in the 9th, Suzuki delivers a GS in the 11th
- Yanks and Dodgers split a DH
What I’m Watching Today:
- Oswalt returns to the bigs with the Rockies against Zimmermann (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Pettitte at Yankees stadium (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez faces the Angels (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- After 8 straight wins, are the Blue Jays getting back in this?
I’m doubtful despite the hot streak. Despite 8 straight wins, they are still 7.5 games back of first place and 4.5 back of the second wild card. That isn’t a number too big to overcome, but the problem is how many teams are between them and their goal. To make up the terrible start, they would have to outplay at least two other teams the rest of the way plus the distance they are already back. I’m not sure they are good enough. Fangraphs’ own standings projection is equally skeptical of the Jays, figuring them for 82 wins. New English D has them at 83 wins, and I feel pretty good about that. One week in June isn’t enough to convince me the first 10 weeks didn’t happen.
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
- Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
- Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
- Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
- The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks
- 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
- Astros sweep the White Sox
- Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
- Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
- Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we think of the Padres?
I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.
The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
- Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
- Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
- Freeman walks off on the Giants
- The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
- Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
- Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
- CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
- Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup?
So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…
The Morning Edition (June 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Dbacks and Dodgers trade serious beanballs, brawl in LA, many suspensions to come
- Cole goes 6.1 in his MLB debut as the Pirates beat the Giants
- The Jays tie it in the 9th and win it in the 10th against the White Sox
- Kluber goes 8 to end the Indians’ skid
- Cingrani and the Reds unload on Garza and the Cubs
- Stanton homers in the 8th to avoid spoiling Turner’s strong outing
- Rays shell Lester
- Harang CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller goes to Citi Field (7p Eastern)
- Corbin and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
- Bonderman gets the Astros in Seattle (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, no hard feelings between the Dodgers and Dbacks?
Hardly the case. Greinke hit Ross early in the game (not intentional at all), but things heated up when Kennedy hit Puig in the 6th and Greinke retaliated by hitting Montero in the 7th. Greinke came to the plate in the 7th and Kennedy hit him in the head, precipitating a massive bench clearing brawl that featured grown men tackling each other and punches being thrown. I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need to curtail this type of behavior in baseball. I wasn’t watching the game, so I don’t know which pitch was the one that started it, but everyone carries some blame for keeping it going. I hope MLB suspends everyone involved because there is just no place for this in the game. Intentional beaning is dangerous and childish, especially when it’s up around the head, but it’s even more ridiculous for adults to run onto the field and start fighting. I have no problem with certain members of the teams coming out to talk and yell about it, but it’s not appropriate to settle these things with violence. If this happened somewhere other than the field of play, there would be arrests. It reflects poorly on the sport, even if people enjoy it.
The Morning Edition (June 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox and Rays enter into Game of the Year territory (see below)
- Bailey rolls over the Cubs with 8 innings, 0 ER
- A fog delay at US Cellular
- Another Kershaw-y Kershaw start
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gerrit Cole makes his MLB debut against the Giants (7p Eastern)
- Lester starts after Monday’s marathon game (7p Eastern)
- Turner tries to stay hot in Miami (7p Eastern)
- Wacha against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- CC and Colon in Oakland, I’ll leave the jokes to you (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe that game in Tampa last night?
So here’s what happened, briefly. Alex Cobb started and got shelled. 6 run first. But the Rays clawed back. 2 in the first and 1 in each of the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th. 6-6. In the 10th, the Sox got two to take the lead, then Andrew Bailey had the meltdown to end all meltdowns and sent it hurling forward deeper into the night. It ended, finally, when Nava singled home Victorino in the 14th and the Sox added another for good measure. Just for reference, one of the more incredible win expectancy graphs you will ever see:
The Morning Edition (June 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix out duels Phelps, but the Yanks score on the M’s pen to win 2-1
- Puig has 3 hits, but the Braves pound the Dodgers 8-1
- EJax is strong as the Cubs beat the Bucs
- Lohse goes 8 strong as the Brewers beat the Phils
- The O’s gets 6 HR to outslug the Rays
- Zimmermann goes 7 as the Nats blank the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Silent ace Alex Cobb faces the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw goes against the Dbacks (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma gets the Astros at Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s everyone enjoying Yasiel Puig?
I haven’t written much about Puig because he’s been playing on the coast and I usually write this post before games end out west. So far, he’s hitting .464/.483/.964, good for 307 wRC+. That’s pretty good by any measure, even if it is just 29 PA. Puig certainly won’t hit like this for the whole season, but he’s impressing early and fans are loving him. It’s almost as if the Dodgers shouldn’t have traded for Crawford and/or extended Andre Ethier into their declines. It will be interesting to see what they do once everyone gets healthy, but such a scenario doesn’t look good for Ethier who has been worth 0.1 WAR in 228 PA. For perspective, that’s less than Zach Greinke has in 16 PA. Zach Greinke, the pitcher.
The Morning Edition (June 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tropical Storm Andrea washes out 3 games and soaks the offices of New English D with 5 inches of rain
- Wainwright cruises as the Cards thump the Reds
- Jennings’ 2 run HR lifts the Rays over the O’s
- Liriano walks 5, but goes 7 to beat the Cubs 2-0
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish goes north to play the Jays (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Harvey (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz goes against the Angels (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who is this week’s surprising leaderboard climber?
That would be Michael Cuddyer. All of a sudden, he’s 6th in MLB in wRC+ with 161, trailing just Davis, Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Goldschmidt, and CarGo. Take your time, read that list. What do you see? Three Colorado Rockies. They have 3 of the top 6 hitters in baseball and 4 of the top 28 (Fowler), but then everyone else is below MLB average and they’re 10th overall with 101 wRC+ as a club. I had them as one of the worst teams in baseball coming in to the season, but their pitching is performing better than I expected, but the key is the health of their big hitters. They don’t have the depth to fill in, but Tulo and CarGo are as good as almost any pair in the game when they are healthy.
New English D 