The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
- Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
- Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
- Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)
I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).
- 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
- 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
- March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP
That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.
So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
2013 Season Preview: National League West
If we knew nothing else than who won the World Series every year, the National League West would look as if it was doing pretty well for itself as it is home to two of the last three world champions. Both of those teams are the San Francisco Giants, however, so it’s probably better for everyone if we had a little more information.
The division features those defending champion Giants and baseball’s newest quarter billion dollar payroll, the Dodgers. Both clubs have their sights set on a playoff run and they will have company.
The Diamondbacks made a lot of roster juggling, win now type deals this year and the Padres had a good run to end 2012. Only the Rockies can be said to have no realistic playoff hopes for 2013.
The division features big ballparks and could be a growing challenge to baseball’s previously elite divisions in the years to come. For now, it remains a bit off the pace in my book. Here’s how SABR Toothed Tigers sizes up the NL West for 2013.
[Division Rank. Team (Predicted 2013 Record, Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Colorado Rockies (63-99, 28)
The Rockies had a bad season in 2012 and didn’t do a whole lot to make their team better for 2013. The offense, with a healthy Tulowitzki, is formidable enough to contend, but they cannot do it alone. The starting rotation and bullpen, even with generous adjustments for the tough home ballpark, are abysmal. The Rockies have a number of guys I would feel comfortable placing at the back end of my rotation, but none who belong at the front. If the Rockies won more than 75 games in 2013, I would be absolutely shocked. As you can see by my preseason ranking, I think the Rockies will be among the worst five teams in baseball this year.
4. San Diego Padres (78-84, 22)
The Padres played much better in the second of half of 2012 and actually looked like a team that could contend in 2013 with a few upgrades. Unfortunately, they didn’t make any big upgrades. They took some chances on previously injured starters who could certainly provide good value, but no one who will be a bona fide difference maker. With some good fortune, the Padres should spend a few months kicking dirt around the second wild card, but the talent just isn’t there without a couple more acquisitions.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80, 15)
The Diamondbacks have a talented roster, but also made some strange moves this offseason. They traded Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Trevor Bauer for a return of Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Heath Bell, and Randall Delgado. There are a few more pieces as well, but these are the ones who look to make an impact this year. They signed Cody Ross and Eric Chavez and have good pitching depth coming from the system to go along with centerfielder in waiting Adam Eaton. On the whole, this is a talented club, but they seemed to get the worse end of every move they made. That doesn’t mean they’ll have a bad season, but it does make you wonder how well the team is run. I wouldn’t be surprised by a playoff push from the Dbacks, but it will require another big year from Aaron Hill and Paul Golschmidt in addition to solid seasons from a lot of lesser pieces. The key will be how well a deep but inexperienced pitching staff can navigate through a full season. This is a good team, but not a great team and their record will reflect that.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, 11)
I’ve written on several occasions that I don’t think the Dodgers have successfully spent their way into a playoff berth, but rather have merely allowed themselves to get into the discussion. Their top two starters, Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, are phenomenal, but the rotation is uncertain after that despite a number of options. Carl Crawford claims he’ll be ready by Opening Day, but I’m doubtful we’ll ever see him regain his Tampa Bay form. Matt Kemp is coming off an injury plagued season and Andre Either’s and Adrian Gonzalez’s best days are behind them as far as I’m concerned. This isn’t a bad team, but this is not the best team $250 million can buy. The Dodgers should be in the playoff chase right down to the wire, but they’re not going to make into October.
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71, 7)
The Giants have earned this spot in part due to history and in part due to reason. As far as history is concerned, they’ve won two World Series in three years and are due some deference for that. Rationally though, they won the division last year and return the same team minus a half season of Melky Cabrera and plus full ones from Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro. The Dodgers may be better than last year, but they also had an unusually lucky first two months last year, so that might balance out. It’s also hard to imagine Tim Lincecum doing any worse than he did in 2012 and could reasonably do much, much better. The Giants aren’t the most talented team in baseball for 2013, but they have shown the ability to exceed our expectations of them. This is a team that plays good defense and pitches well, but they are also a better offensive club than they were in 2010 when they played “torture baseball.” Buster Posey will lead the way, but he won’t be on his own. The Giants aren’t my pick for the World Series, but they are my pick to represent the NL West in the postseason.
Awards and Miscellaneous Predictions:
NL West Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL West MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Hanley Ramirez
Division Storyline That Will Surprise Us: The Dodgers will be desperate for pitching by June.
Boldest of the Bold: Carl Crawford will be a platoon player by August.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 30-21
Spring Training begins this week in Florida and Arizona as all thirty MLB teams do their best to prepare themselves for another season. That preparation will be critical to their respective successes and failures, but before anyone gets hurt or anyone has a breakout season, this is how SABR Toothed Tigers thinks the league stacks up.
30. Houston Astros
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the Astros other than that they are a very bad team. The new front office has worked well over the last year to restock the farm system and get them on a path to rebuilding but that has come at the expense of the clubs won-loss record for 2013. The Opening Day payroll will be south of $30 million and the Astros could easily lose another 100 games. The future looks much better for the Astros, but the now is just terrible.
29. Miami Marlins
Entering the 2012 season the Marlins had a new stadium and a revamped club. The ownership committed to higher payrolls and more competitive clubs, but after a rocky start to the season, the Marlins began selling off pieces and completed the process with a full on fire sale in the offseason. Almost nothing remains. The Marlins ownership didn’t like the less than stellar attendance and they decided they weren’t going to pay for a team that didn’t sell tickets. The 2013 Marlins are Giancarlo Stanton and players who are either too young to make any money or two broken to get other offers.
28. Colorado Rockies
Last season was a disaster for the Rockies. They lost Tulowitzki for most of the season and their pitching staff was terrible. A healthy Tulo will help the team and the offense should be okay, but the pitching staff isn’t much of anything. They didn’t do anything to improve the club during the offseason and the return of Tulowitzki can only do so much. With other teams in the NL West adding to their arsenals, the Rockies won’t find room to improve.
27. Minnesota Twins
The Twins pursued two offseason strategies this winter. First, they traded all of their centerfielders. Span to the Nationals and Revere to the Phillies. Second, they signed every pitcher they could find that is coming off an injury hoping for the best. On the face of it, those moves won’t do much for the 2013 team, which could easily lose 95 or more games, but these moves have helped stock an already interesting farm system. The Twins are a couple years away from getting back into things, but they have enough pieces that we shouldn’t expect them to be terrible in an unwatchable sort of way.
26. Cleveland Indians
The Tribe added Nick Swisher and others in free agency and picked up Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer via trade during the offseason to plug up holes in their team, but their main issue is starting pitching and they didn’t do enough to turn themselves into contenders. The Indians have some exciting young position players, but when you’re counting on Swisher to be your top offensive player you’re probably too short on offense and when Justin Masterson is your ace, you’re definitely short on pitching. Editors Note: This ranking was determined as of Saturday Feb. 9th, prior to the beginning of Spring Training. The signing of Michael Bourn is not reflected here.
25. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are moving in the right direction with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer now at the helm and I like their starting pitching for 2013 and beyond. The offense isn’t much to look at and the bullpen isn’t really anything. If you’re hoping for an end to the curse, you should probably shift your hopes until next season.
24. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and a lot of young starting pitching coming, but 2013 won’t be their year. They tried to improve their lineup with a bunch of broken pieces, but it’s going to be a rough offensive season even with shorter fences at Safeco. This is a team that can prevent runs but not one that can score them.
23. Kansas City Royals
The Royals place on this list might seem low, but there are still a lot of problems with this team despite adding James Shields. They probably added a few wins with pitching upgrades, but the offense didn’t improve much other than counting on bounce back seasons. The Royals will probably have more wins than other teams ahead of them on this list, but that will be a function of playing two teams on this list ranked 26th or lower 19 times each. The Royals probably won’t be embarrassing, but I don’t think they’ll be good either.
22. San Diego Padres
The Padres have some good young players in their system and the fences are coming in at Petco Park, but they didn’t do much to improve their team. In a tough division, it’s hard to see them being much better than they were in 2012 especially with their starting catcher spending 50 games on suspension for PED use.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
In my 2012 Season in Review series I told you I thought the Pirates would finally break the under .500 curse and turn into a winning team for the first time in two decades, but I’ve been talking myself out of it ever since. I think they might still win over 81 games this year, but I think that will be a function of luck and timing rather than true talent. I think the Pirates are the 21st best MLB team, but they might still finish with a record above average.
Come back tomorrow and Thursday for 2013 Preseason Power Rankings 20-11 and 10-1.ets.
2012 Season in Review: National League West
It was a big year for the National League West as the the World Series champion and the newest baseball juggernaut called the left coast home. The Dodgers spent a lot of the season as a surprise contender and then big time spender while the steady as she goes Giants took home the ultimate prize.
Here’s how the division finished up:
And for those of you tracking how it played out, here are the playoff odds from April to October
My early projection for next season looks like this:
And finally, I look back at my 2012 grades for each club.
The NL West Cy Young is Clayton Kershaw’s in a runaway, and Buster Posey takes the NL West MVP over Chase Headley.






