How Was The Game? (July 8, 2014)
A 180.
Tigers 14, Dodgers 5
I adopted a dog in December, so during the 2014 baseball season I’ve occasionally missed watching the beginning of a game because the pup takes his evening way between dinner and the first pitch. Today was one of those days. Like, I have a cell phone and everything, so it’s not like I can’t follow the game, I just can’t watch on my TV. By the time I got to my couch, it was 3-0 Dodgers.By the time I sat on my couch, it was 5-0. That’s not good because Justin Verlander (19 GS, 122.2 IP, 4.84 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) was pitching and we’re trying to get him going. He gave up five runs before I basically did anything! And then, miraculously, the Tigers jumped all over Ryu. They got all five back in the 2nd. Then they got two in the 4th. Then four in the 4th! Then one in the 5th! And two in the 7th! All the while, Verlander didn’t even allow a baserunner for a long time after that first inning and didn’t surrender another run. Even the bullpen didn’t allow a run over three innings. There’s quite a bit you could say (Cabrera tripled!!!!), but I think this might say it all.
Max Scherzer (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.0 fWAR) faces Greinke for the sweep on Wednesday
The Moment: The Tigers rally back for five in the 2nd to erase Verlander’s clunker.
How Was The Game? (July 6, 2014)
Not much at which to look.
Rays 7, Tigers 3
On the evening he wasn’t chosen for the All-Star team, Rick Porcello (17 GS, 112.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.6 fWAR) had a rough night, certainly compared to his previous few outings. Coming off two straight shutouts, Porcello was due for a more human performance. The Rays were aggressive early and jumped on him for a few hits and three runs in the 1st and then tacked on runs in the 5th. All told, it was 5.1 innings and seven runs, but it’s hard to be upset given what he’s done recently. The bats grabbed and early run and then remained silent for quite some time until rHunter added one on in the 7th and JD Martinez added another in the 9th. Then it started raining and thundering and lightening as the Tigers drew two walks to put some pressure on but they failed to complete the rally and dropped three of four in the series. They’ll take Monday off and then turn to Justin Verlander (18 GS, 116.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) against the Dodgers Tuesday.
The Moment: The Tigers mount a 9th inning rally as thunder and lightening engulf metro Detroit.
How Was The Game? (July 5, 2014)
Forgettable.
Rays 7, Tigers 2
In reality, I shouldn’t actively direct you to stop reading the site I created, but you don’t want to read about this game. Anibal Sanchez (15 GS, 87.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.1 fWAR) appeared to be in control early, but absolutely lost it in the 5th and 6th inning, offering walks and hard contact to any Ray who would take them. He ended the day after 5.2 innings, seven runs, six hits, four walks, and just one strikeout. There was nothing to like about this start by the time it was over. Although, if you’re going to throw a clunker, you might as well do it on a day when the offense didn’t deliver either. The Tigers put almost no pressure on Archer and scored their only runs on an Avila homer in the 7th and a Martinez bomb in the 9th. Rick Porcello (16 GS, 106.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.8 fWAR) will get the ball Sunday night against David Price, looking for his third straight shutout and a series split.
The Moment: Avila launches a home run in the general direction of the FSD broadcast team.
How Was The Game? (July 4, 2014)
Explosive (/logs off).
Rays 6, Tigers 3
Drew Smyly (14 GS, 81 IP, 3.89 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) allowed quite a few extra base hits on Friday night against the Rays and it cost him, as he survived just 5.1 innings while allowing five runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out just three. The dagger that chased him is probably worth forgiving as Ausmus probably should have pulled him a batter earlier. At any rate, it wasn’t a great outing but you won’t always get a great outing from your number five starter. The bats added a run in the 4th and two in the 6th and both teams got involved in some hit batter-action that may or may not have been intentional. All told, it was a run of the mill loss in which the other team sent a better pitcher to the mound and neither club made any particularly game changing mistakes. The third game of this four game set will feature Anibal Sanchez (14 GS, 82 IP, 2.63 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 2.3 fWAR) on Saturday.
The Moment: Don Kelly actually speaks in a harsh tone when the umpire made a bad call.
How Was The Game? (July 3, 2014)
Never in doubt.
Tigers 8, Rays 1
Max Scherzer (18 GS, 119.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 3.1 fWAR) certainly seems to be over his case of the hiccups from earlier in the year and is back to being Max Scherzer. On this night he gave the Tigers eight innings two hit, one walk, one run innings featuring seven strikeouts and almost no trouble after the first two batters. And Max didn’t really have to sweat after the first inning because the Tigers logged five runs during the first six batters on three home runs from Kinsler, Martinez, and Hunter. They chased Bedard early and tacked on additional runs as the night wore on, but it was a bit of a role reversal as people drove in Miggy rather than Miggy doing the driving. After sweeping the A’s, the Tigers got off to a great start against the recently hot Rays on Thursday and continued their resurgent ways. For all the run scoring and quality pitching, it was a pretty nondescript game after the first. Scherzer allowed just one baserunner and the Tigers had a comfortable lead the entire way. They’ll turn to Drew Smyly (13 GS, 75.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 0.9 fWAR) on Friday.
The Moment: The Tigers hit three home runs in the 1st to jump ahead 5-0.
Which Tigers Belong On The All-Star Team?
I don’t usually get worked up about the All-Star Game voting/selection unless something egregious happens. If Cabrera was left off the team and Eric Hosmer made it, I’d have a problem. Otherwise, there’s no set definition of All-Star and the game doesn’t matter and getting four days off isn’t a bad thing. That said, let’s scan the Tigers roster and see who belongs.
Relievers:
NOPE!
Well, Joba Chamberlain isn’t an awful choice, but there are more deserving people and not many spots. He’s not Greg Holland or Delin Betances. No one else is even really in the conversation.
Starters:
Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello
All three of these guys are “deserving,” but none of them are slam dunks at all. It depends how many starters a team takes and how many relievers, but Max is 8th in WAR, Sanchez is 15th, and Porcello is 19th among AL starters. Some of that is number of starts and innings, which I’m not a slave to when it comes to the ASG. If a pitcher has 2 WAR in 100 innings or 1.8 WAR in 90 innings, those are basically the same thing at this point in the year. I’ll consider it as a factor more when talking about awards. Min. 50 IP, Sanchez is 8th in ERA- and Porcello is 14th. Max is 28th. Using FIP-(which I care much more about), Sanchez is 5th, Scherzer is 9th, and Porcello is 29th. I think all three have been good enough that inclusion would be deserved, but I’m not going to argue that any of them have pitched well enough that they have to be on the team. Sanchez belongs most, I think, and he deserves recognition, but I don’t think any of them are clear All-Stars if we’re talking about 2014 performance only. If you want to include second half of 2013 numbers, star power, whatever, that’s fine. I don’t mind. But that’s not how I vote.
Outfielders:
JD Martinez?
So Hunter, Jackson, and Davis are obviously out. Among outfielders with 100 PA overall, Martinez is 24th in fWAR, but he only has 162 PA. If we’re looking purely at that group’s offense, Martinez is fourth behind only Trout, Pearce, and Bautista. I don’t think he’ll make it. The AL OF is pretty crowded. If he had started the year with the team and had regular playing time at this rate, he’s an All-Star, but you can’t pull deserving guys out of the game to stick him in.
Infielders:
Cabrera and Kinsler
Cabrera is tied for first in WAR and is a top 5 hitter among the people who are really full time 1B. He’s one of the game’s biggest stars and is deserving. Seems obvious. Kinsler has a harder path because of the voting and the position, but he deserves it. He leads in WAR by plenty and sits right behind Altuve and Cano in wRC+. The problem is Dozier, who probably belongs as the Twins representative. There’s no question Ian is one of the best two or three second basemen in the AL and one of the best players in the league this year. I think he won’t make it onto the team because of the way the process works. That’s too bad, but I bet Ian won’t mind the time off. Although he could be a solid final vote choice.
Catcher/DH:
Martinez
Yeah, not even a question. Leads in wRC+, leads in WAR. Might not win the vote, but an All-Star Game that includes a DH and doesn’t have Victor after this red hot start isn’t worth watching.
I bet that Cabrera and Martinez make it. Maybe Kinsler gets a shot. JD Martinez won’t make it, but has a reasonable case if the season started a month late. The pitchers could all easily be on the team, but probably shouldn’t be. We’ve had a lot of All-Stars lately, but it might be a small crop despite the fact that this is the best start to a season, based on their record, since 2007. Funny, eh?
How Was The Game? (July 2, 2014)
Satisfying.
Tigers 9, A’s 3
The game didn’t exactly start well considering Justin Verlander (18 GS, 116.2 IP, 4.71 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 1.7 fWAR) gave up two big home runs in the first inning, but he didn’t allow another run over five more innings, didn’t walk anyone and pitched out of a couple of jams to set his team up for a big middle innings attack. They pushed across three runs earlier, but blew the game open with six in the 6th to pull away from the A’s and let the bullpen land the plane over the final three innings. Nothing stands out particularly from this game, but it was a comfortable win to cap off a sweep of who I would consider the best team in baseball. The Tigers were dragging there for a month, but appear to have pulled out of the tailspin. They will welcome the Rays to town on Thursday with Max Scherzer (17 GS, 111.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.7 fWAR) going in game one.
The Moment: The Tigers break it open with six in the 6th!
Rick Porcello Doesn’t Need Me Anymore
It’s late Tuesday night and I sat down to write about Rick Porcello’s second straight complete game shutout but something stopped me. For the most part, my goal as a writer is to provide a message that you can’t get anywhere else. You’ll notice that I don’t write long recaps or cover day to day news on the site. Sure I talk about little things like that on Twitter, but I don’t strive to be a place you come just to hear what’s going on. I’m an analyst and I see it as my job to provide insight and perspective on topics others aren’t covering.
For years, that’s been Rick Porcello in spades. Very few people saw what I saw in him and even fewer were out here banging the drum on his behalf during the longest, 10-hittingist games. The first big viral post on this website was about Porcello last year and I’ve taken on the mantle of “the Porcello guy” and worn it with honor. Tonight I’m looking around and everyone is banging the Porcello drum. National writers, previously skeptical fans, and even his biggest doubters. Porcello’s made it. People are actually talking about him as an All-Star. His ERA is close to 3, his FIP and WAR look good, and he’s looking dominant on a pretty regular basis. Everything I’ve always seen in him is coming true.
I don’t say this to brag, although I’m doing that too, but to point out that Rick Porcello doesn’t need me anymore. It’s no longer trendy to be high on Porcello. It simply is. He’s good and he’s convinced the world of that fact. I’m immensely proud of him and thrilled that people are now seeing what I’ve seen in him for so many years. I can’t tell you exactly what it was, but the first time I saw him pitch I knew he was going to be special. That’s a weird thing for a stat-head type like me to say, but I saw it. I held back for a while but I’ve been screaming it now for quite some time.
I think he’s a star.
Not a Cy Young winning, MVP, Clayton Kershaw star. But a top 25, you can count on me in October star. He’s that good and people are starting to notice.
So basically, my work here is kind of done. I don’t have to be the one to tell you how Porcello is growing into a great pitcher because you’re on board. The bandwagon is full. Won the battle, won the war.
I’m really happy tonight. For Rick. For the fans. For the organization that wouldn’t trade him even when people were screaming for it. I’m a guy with a #48 Rick Porcello shirt. Vintage. Last week was satisfying. Tonight was something else. The end of an era and the beginning of a new one.
Rick Porcello is good and no one needs convincing.
How Was The Game? (July 1, 2014)
Madduxian.
Tigers 3, A’s 0
Rick Porcello (16 GS, 106.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.8 fWAR) stole my heart a long time ago, but after tonight he’s won over his remaining doubters. Against the league’s best offense, he tossed a Maddux (CGSO in under 100 pitches). It wasn’t even a challenge. He recorded a career high 17 ground outs and didn’t deal at all with strikeouts, walks, or home runs. It was a brilliant three hit shutout that required just 95 pitches. And this was his second straight shutout. JD Martinez did most of the heavy lifting on offense but Porcello didn’t need much as he carried the Tigers to victory for the second straight start and punctuated his impressive season with another gem. Rick freaking Porcello, everyone. Justin Verlander (17 GS, 110.2 IP, 4.80 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.8 fWAR) will try to follow him on Wednesday.
The Moment: Porcello finishes another gem.
Exploring Ian Kinsler’s Reverse Platoon Split
The Tigers already won the trade, but let’s talk about Ian Kinsler some more anyway. Through 78 games he has a 128 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR. If he was that valuable over an entire season we’d have loved the acquisition and it’s only now July. Nicely done, everyone involved. Kinsler is simultaneously playing good defense, running the bases well, and having his best offensive season since 2008. His BABIP and ISO are up so far, but not unsustainably so. Kinsler is a good player having a good season. I didn’t think he had a 6 win season left in him, but I certainly thought a 3-4 win season was doable.
One thing I noticed over the weekend was this.
The first thing I would say is that a reverse platoon split (when you hit same side pitching better than opposite side pitching) is extremely rare and takes multiple seasons to stabilize. I don’t think Kinsler is all of a sudden a true talent righty masher, but I will point out that his best season prior to this was 2008 (offensively) and that was the only other season in which he was meaningfully better against righties.
In other words, a lot of this strong performance can be chalked up to better success against RHP. We’ll assume he’ll get better against lefties and worse against righties as the season continues on, but let’s peak into the numbers against right-handers.
There’s a corresponding BABIP spike, but that doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know. We know he was better, but we don’t know why. He’s swinging more often and making better contact on pitches up against righties. Below I have two heatmaps. One is from 2011-2013 and the other is from 2014. Red is good and blue is bad. These are run values per 100 pitches relative to league average. If that was mumbo jumbo, just understand that he’s more productive than average on pitches in the red zone and less productive than average on pitches in the blue zone.
I can’t tell you exactly why Ian is successfully attacking more pitches up and over the plate, but he’s doing so this year. Typically, batters have some difficulty making contact in that area, but right now he isn’t. I’m not ready to provide an answer, but we now have something specific to watch.
New English D 