How Was The Game? (May 16, 2013)
A wacky disaster.
Rangers 10, Tigers 4
When you see Verlander and Darvish in the program, you expect a level of pitching that you did not receive on this night. Darvish struggled early, allowing 4 runs in 8 innings including a homerun to Don Kelly, but the story was Justin Verlander’s (4-4, 54 IP, 3.17 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR) meltdown in the 3rd inning. He walked in two, allowed two to score on a double, and surrender a 3 run homer and was pulled after 2.2 innings and just 70 pitches. You don’t often see Verlander get taken out for being ineffective, but it happened today. His velocity was there in spades, but his command was lacking like it was against the Indians and there will be a lot of whispers about something being wrong with Verlander. It’s likely a mini-funk and a reminder of how spoiled we are to rely on him start after start. He’ll try to wash this one out of his mind and get back on track for his next outing. The game also featured Ian Kinsler giving new meaning to “head first slide” and Lance Berkman striking out on a pitch that hit the backstop on the fly. The Tigers will try to do the same and will be back at it tomorrow with Rick Porcello (1-2, 32.1 IP, 6.68 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 0.3 WAR) on the hill coming off three solid outings.
The Moment: The Rangers chase Verlander after just eight outs and as many runs.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
A Slightly Valuable Graph about Miguel Cabrera
By telling you Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter, I’m telling you nothing you don’t already know. But I was curious about his progression as a hitter and started playing around with the numbers, which led me to the creation of this graph. It seemed silly to waste it, so here you are. This is a graph tracking Cabrera’s career OBP and SLG at the end of each game. This isn’t surprising, but in the last three years he’s gotten better. That coincides with his prime and the obvious uptick in his notoriety in the game.
Cabrera is a good hitter. Not every post can be groundbreaking. This one is just a graph.
How Was The Game? (May 15, 2013)
A near miss.
Astros 7, Tigers 5
The Tigers entered today’s game going for the series and season sweep of the Houston Astros and came up just short. The Tigers got out in front early, but allowed the Astros back into the game and would have to settle for 6 wins against the Astros in 7 tries. The Tigers are now 22-16 as they prepare for a four game series against the Rangers this weekend in Arlington. Max Scherzer (5-0, 54.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 1.9 WAR) was good except for the fourth inning in which he allowed 4 runs, finishing with 7 innings, 5 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, and 7 strikeouts. Avisail Garcia made his mark on the young season by powering his first major league homerun in the 2nd inning to deep left centerfield that put the Tigers on top, but Alburquerque walked the leadoff man in the 9th and Coke allowed him and another to score to put the Tigers behind 7-5. In the bottom of the inning, the Tigers loaded the bases for Miguel Cabrera who crushed a ball to the wall in deep RCF, but Barnes ran it down and made a leaping catch to end the game. The Tigers will begin the Rangers’ series in style tomorrow with Justin Verlander (4-3, 51.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 2.1 WAR) lining up against Yu Darvish for one of the premier pitching matchups of the young season.
The Moment: Garcia hits his first ML homerun in the 2nd
Doug Fister and Something We’ve Never Seen Before
Doug Fister is doing something kind of amazing so far this season. He’s hitting more batters than he is walking. Through 8 starts and 50 innings, Fister has hit 10 batters and walked 8 for a HBP-BB = 2. This is remarkable just because it’s a crazy thing, but it’s also remarkable because it has never happened before. (Editor’s Note: As of 9/2, Fister has hit 16 and walked 37 in 179.2 IP, he currently ranks 3rd all time and is 5 behind the leader. As of August 7th, this is the BB% to HBP% of every season in MLB history. Fister is in red).
Granted, Fister is only about a quarter of the way through his season and this can’t possibly keep up, but it’s worth noting how crazy this is. Over the course of an entire season, for qualified pitchers, no one has ever hit more batters than they have walked. The MLB record holder is Carlos Silva in 2005 who hit 3 batters and walked 9 in 188.1 innings. That walk rate itself is just fun to look at, but it’s beside the point. No one has ever complete a full season in which they have hit more batters than they have walked and the closest anyone has ever come is a differential of 6.
Now certainly, you will call attention to a small sample size and that over 50 innings pretty much anything can happen. And that’s true, but it doesn’t escape the fact that in 2013, no one else is hitting more batters than they are walking. Not Wainwright, not Colon, not Haren. None of the great control artists of our time are doing this even in the same small sample as Fister. I’m sure there are instances of pitchers doing this over similarly small stretches in history, but they would be very hard to find.
Think of it this way, from 1900-2013, the average pitcher hits 5 batters a season and walks 68. Even in the smallest of samples, it’s pretty extraordinary to find a period in which a pitcher is hitting more than he is walking, and these statistics include eras in which walks were much less common. Even in data that includes the 2013, which will bias the data away from these results, I calculate a chance that a pitcher would finish a season with more HBP than BB between 0.5 and 2 percent if this process played out at random. Here is a graph of HBP-BB with 2013 included, which will include pitchers like Wainwright this year who just haven’t walked many batters because they are good and it’s only been six weeks:
For now, Fister is on pace for a record all his own.
How Was The Game? (May 14, 2013)
Not surprising.
Tigers 6, Astros 2
With a 6-2 win today, the Tigers improved to 22-15 and a robust 6-0 against the Houston Astros. Outside of a rough 2nd inning, Doug Fister (5-1, 50 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.5 WAR) performed well, posting a final line of 7 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, and 7 strikeouts against the swinging ‘Stros. The offense was very quiet early, but came alive with three runs on four straight hits in the 5th to take the lead for good before adding on in the late innings. One can’t get too excited about defeating the Astros, but one also can’t expect your team to do anything more than beat the Astros, as there is not a category of outcomes better than winning. With Fister’s solid performance, there are now 21 major league teams that do not have one starting pitching who has a higher WAR than the Tigers’ 4th best starter this season. The four Tigers starters are 1st, 5th, 6th, and 13th best baseball at about 10pm on May 14th. If you’re wondering how the Tigers are doing it, this should probably tell you most of the story (team stats entering today):
The Tigers will attempt to complete their second sweep of the Astros in as many weeks Wednesday behind Max Scherzer (5-0, 47.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.89 FIP, 2.0 WAR).
The Moment: Dirks doubles in the go-ahead run in the 5th by bouncing the ball over the RCF wall.
How Was The Game? (May 13, 2013)
It’s always fun to play the Astros.
Tigers 7, Astros 2
The Tigers performed against the Astros as a team should. Behind a strong start by Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 2.6 WAR) in which he went 7 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 8 and walked 1. In addition to Sanchez’s strong outing, Andy Dirks’ 4th inning grand slam backed Victor Martinez’s 2 run homer in the same inning to give the Tigers plenty of offense with which to work. The Tigers didn’t miss Jackson with Dirks providing three hits from the leadoff spot and Sanchez maintained his position atop the pitcher WAR leaderboard – actually by a lot. After today’s start, Sanchez now owns a 11.28 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in 8 starts, which if you’re new to baseball, is very good. Both numbers, in addition to the ERA and FIP, are on pace to be career bests. Should Sanchez keep anything close to this pace up for the rest of the season, this will certainly be Sanchez’s career year. One of the things that is contributing to Sanchez’s success this year is his increased reliance on his changeup as opposed to in the past (as illustrated below by yearly averages):
It’s too early to say for sure, but it looks like trading a few sliders for some changeups is helping Sanchez perform above his career norms early in 2013. He’s also allowing fewer homeruns per flyball (2.6%) than his career average (8.2%) which could be good fortune or the result of the new approach. The Tigers will look to take the series tomorrow night with Doug Fister (4-1, 43 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.2 WAR) toeing the rubber.
The Moment: Dirks hits a no doubt grand slam – the first of his career – in the 4th.
Jackson Heads to the DL, Garcia Called Up
Today the Tigers put CF Austin Jackson on the DL with a pulled hamstring retroactive to May12 and recalled OF Avisail Garcia from AAA Toledo. Jackson’s injury doesn’t appear to be terribly serious, so he should only miss a couple of weeks and Garcia should be able to fill in admirably.
So far this year, Garcia has 6 games at Lakeland during an injury rehab (.417/.500/.708) and 8 games at Toledo (.432/.447/.541) and has hit well at both spots. The sample is small, but it’s good to see a player with great raw tools performing well on the field even if it is only over 14 games. In 51 PA with the Tigers last season, his .319/.373/.319 line indicated he was able to make contact against big league pitching, but he wasn’t yet able to drive the baseball for extra bases. His minor league power numbers have been climbing over the last year, so look for some of that to show up at the big league level.
Garcia is still just 21 years old and still requires some seasoning, but he is a great athlete with an excellent throwing arm who should at least be able to spell Jackson for now without costing the team too much over the short run. The Tigers might even get lucky and discover he’s ready for prime time, in which case, the Tigers’ lineup will get even scarier for opposing pitchers. To me, he’s a .270 type 15/15 guy who can give you plus defense in a corner.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
How Was The Game? (May 12, 2013)
Great, until Valverde time.
Indians 4, Tigers 3
On Mother’s Day, the Tigers lost the rubber match of the three game series against the Indians despite a strong effort from Rick Porcello (1-2, 32.1 IP, 6.68 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 0.2 WAR) who allowed 2 runs in 6 innings of work while limiting the Indians to 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. This marks his third consecutive quality start and during those three starts he has averaged 8.4 K/9, which is very good for a groundball pitcher. The offense was provided mostly by backup catcher Brayan Pena, who had three hits including a 2 run homerun, but also via an Infante sacrifice fly. Valverde entered the game in the 9th win a one run lead and gave it away with two walks and a single, forcing the Tigers to deliver in the bottom of the 9th which they were unable to do, sending the game to the 10th inning where they gave up a run and couldn’t match it. The loss drops the Tigers to 20-15 and just their 4th series loss in 12 tries this year. They will welcome the Astros to Comerica Park for three starting tomorrow behind Anibal Sanchez (3-3, 45.2 IP, 1.97 ERA, 1.48 FIP, 2.2 WAR), the league’s best starting pitcher by WAR so far this season despite having one fewer start than his competitors Wainwright, Buchholz, and Verlander.
The Moment: Pena’s homerun just clear the right centerfield wall.
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