The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
The Morning Edition (April 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Dickey finally delivers a strong start as the Jays beat the White Sox
- Wainwright keeps his walk-less streak alive in a 4-3 win over the Phillies
- Derek Jeter suffers a setback, will be out until at least the All Star Break
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay looks to stay on track against the Cards (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz faces Shields in the first game at Fenway since the marathon bombings, pending the current manhunt’s resolution (7p Eastern)
- Stephen Strasburg faces Matt Harvey at Citi Field (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Halladay fare against a tough lineup after handling the Marlins last week?
We had some close finishes on Thursday that didn’t make the headlines above like the Rays/O’s and Yankees/Dbacks, but the only thing I can talk about here is Strasburg versus Harvey tonight. Easily the most exciting two right handers in the NL right now square off in the same game, which makes for super-appointment television. The problem for me is that I live in North Carolina, so I can’t watch the game. What are you talking about, you ask? Well, NC is in Nationals territory so it’s blacked out on MLB.TV and local cable companies do not carry MASN, so it’s literally impossible to watch the Nats or O’s while remaining within the confines of the law. Someone please call me and describe this game in great detail! I’m pretty sure not letting me watch this game is a violation of my civil liberties.
The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
The Morning Edition (April 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain delays games and washes out NYY/CLE and MIL/CHC
- Harper and Desmond back Zimmerman in a 5-2 win over the White Sox
- Giants put up a 10 spot on the Rockies as Zito puts up a zero
- Matt Moore keeps the Rangers off the board despite 6 walks in a 2-0 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dan Haren looks to bounce back from a rocky first outing against the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Greinke looks to build on his superb first effort against the Friars (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez is pitching. That’s all you need. (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Barry Zito a thing again? (I mean, probably not, but he’s trying!)
I’ve been trying to decide if bullpens are worse this year or not. I’m the king of lecturing on small sample sizes, but it seems like several times a night we’re watching bullpens in full on meltdown mode. Naturally, I went digging to see if my perception is well-founded or not. Here’s what I found (league-wide reliever numbers).
- 2013: 8.57 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 4.27 ERA, 4.11 FIP
- 2012: 8.37 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP
- March/April 2012: 8.09 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.74 ERA, 3.95 FIP
That’s a lot of numbers, but let me summarize. Relievers are striking out more batters in 2013 than they did last year and they’re walking fewer too regardless of whether we look at the whole season or just the first month. But when we look to the far right we see a much higher set of ERA and FIP in 2013, pointing us to the culprit: homeruns. Relievers are giving up more homeruns in 2013 than they did last April or last year. This is a small sample, so it may not be predictive of what we will see the rest of the way, but I am right in my suspicion that bullpens are performing worse so far. They’re giving up bombs at a higher rate and it’s translating into worse run prevention by bullpens league-wide.
So it’s not just the Tigers, guys.
The Morning Edition (April 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kris Medlen cruises past the Fish in Miami
- Cliff Lee gets help from his offense, but comes up one out shy of a complete game in aa 8-3 win over the Mets
- Pettitte needs little help, but gets a lot in 14-1 win over the Indians
- The Nationals hang on for dear life in an 8-7 win over the White Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore faces the Rangers in a redux of his 2011 ALDS Game 1 start (2p Eastern)
- Barry Zito looks to build on his strong first start against the Rockies (345p Eastern)
- Kyle Lohse will try to follow his strong first start against the Cubs (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How awesome was Don Kelly’s catch last night?
It happened after we went to press on Monday night, but I can’t help but comment on what happened in the final at bat of Monday’s game between the Rangers and Rays. Down one, with one on and two out, Ben Zobrist stepped to the plate to face Joe Nathan. Marty Foster gave us this beauty of a strikezone.
Jump over to Jeff Sullivan’s article at Fangraphs for .gifs of the pitch and how awful it looked it real time. Foster admitted after the game that he missed the call. We’re speaking specifically about #6 above (but #1 was bad too!). It’s hard to be too critical of MLB umpires give the state of officiating in high profile events in other sports like the NCAA title game, but this is just one of the many reasons why we need expanded replay in baseball. There are a lot of calls that we could get right if we let the umpires take another look. Not only would it help us get calls right, but it would take pressure off the umpires and remove a lot of tension that comes after blown calls. Heck, there were two clear ones on Opening Night in Houston and another really bad one (that the crew chief overturned) in Detroit this weekend. A lot of this is avoidable, so let’s avoid it!
The Morning Edition (April 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Justin Upton’s 4-hit game powers the Braves past the Marlins
- Matt Harvey pitches brilliantly again while Halladay struggles as the Mets beat the Phillies 7-2
- Mitchell Boggs vomits up the game as the Reds rally for 9 runs in the 9th to top the Cards 13-4
- Clay Buchholz shines as the Red Sox beat the O’s on Opening Day in Boston
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jake Peavy and Gio Gonzalez hook up in D.C. (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee tries to get the Phillies rotation back on track against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- The ageless Andy Pettitte tries to quiet the Indians’ bats (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we watching the end of Roy Halladay?
Three things stood out on Monday in major league baseball. Let’s take them in turn. First, Mitchell Boggs gave up 6 earned runs to go with his four walks in 1/3 of an inning. This is particularly notable because he’s on my fantasy baseball team, so I can tell you that calculates out to a 162.00 ERA and 18.00 WHIP for the day. Good grief. Second, Matt Harvey is very good. The Phillies aren’t the best offense in baseball, but his 7IP, 3H, 1R, 2BB, 9K line is hard to ignore. For the season, he’s 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA, 1.14 FIP and a 12.21 K/9. Stats don’t mean much over two starts, but those are pretty snazzy. Matt Harvey is officially my non-Tiger man-crush of 2013. Third, Roy Halladay might be slipping away from us. Against the Mets on Monday he went 4IP, gave up 7 earned runs, walked 3, and struckout just 3 as well. His ERA on the season is 14.73. Again, you don’t want to make too much of the numbers, but Halladay, after a rough 2012 and rough spring, just doesn’t look like the pitcher we used to know. A one time surgeon of the strikezone, now looks as if he is using Apple Maps to find it. Just two years ago, at the start of 2011, I wouldn’t have batted an eye that Doc was the best pitcher in baseball. This year, he didn’t make my top 9 NL pitchers. I’m not sure he’s in the top 40 right now. He has to be hurt, right? It’s tough to watch.
The Morning Edition (April 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- R.A. Dickey, David Price, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Stephen Strasburg all get hit hard in losing efforts
- Will Middlebrooks hits 3 HR in 13-0 thumping of the Jays
- Dayan Viciedo walks off on Kameron Loe in the 10 inning as the White Sox beat the Mariners
- Marlon Byrd wins it for the Mets in the bottom of the 9th against the Marlins
- The Twins silence Chris Davis and beat the O’s
- Rockies beat the Friars 9-1, improve to 5-1 on the season
- Darvish and Weaver surrender runs early in Arlington
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Reds and Cards square off in an early NL Central showdown (4p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces Roy Halladay in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- The Marlins play their first home game after the winter firesale against Paul Maholm and the Braves (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Was Halladay’s weird outing last week a sign of things to come or blip on the road back to dominance?
Sunday was not a good day for the College of Aces as Dickey, Price, Hamels, Cain, and Straburg all gave up 6 or more earned runs in relatively short outings. As I’m writing this, Darvish and Weaver have given up five runs between them in just two innings, so either one of them could join the party. Sabathia shut down the Tigers and Verlander was good against the Yankees save for one bad pitch. It’s hard to imagine that on a day in which so many of baseball’s best starters took to the hill that so few good pitching performances occurred. I toyed around with the idea of developing an AceStart% statistic that measured what percentage of aces pitched on a given day, and I would guess that Sunday would be the highest non-Opening Day of the season as far as that goes, but it sure didn’t look like it. 148 runs were scored in the 14 games that are final at this point. It was not the day of great pitching I hoped for, but hey, that’s what makes baseball great. On any given day, any team can make a great pitcher look silly.
In a shocking turn of events, however, it was not Chris Davis who won New English D’s “Race to 1.0 WAR,” but rather the A’s shortstop, Jed Lowrie. Mr. Lowrie has 30 plate appearances in his team’s first 7 games and has 3 HR and a .500/.567/1.000 line to go with his .645 wOBA and 326 wRC+. If you had Jed Lowrie in the first to 1.0 WAR pool, come claim your prize. It’s a unicorn. Lowrie, at this moment, is on pace for 23.1 WAR. That would be a record, if you’re curious, topping Babe Ruth‘s 1923 season (.393/.545/.764) by a full 8 wins. Lowrie is a good player, but I’m willing to take the under on that one.
2013 Season Preview: American League Central
While certain national baseball writers seem to think Kansas City and Cleveland adding five or six wins to their 2012 totals will somehow help them unseat a Tigers team that added four or five wins of their own this offseason, the overwhelming evidence points to a third straight Tigers division title.
Things can go wrong, but the Tigers are far and away the safest bet to win any division in baseball again this season.
Here’s how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Minnesota Twins (65-97, 27)
The Twins are looking down the road at a crop of exciting position prospects who are a few years away. They traded away both of their center fielders and signed scrap heap pitching. The plan is to wait it out, and that’s what they are doing. The Twins might not be baseball’s worst team, but on paper, they are certainly the worst in the AL Central.
4. Cleveland Indians (71-91, 26)
To be clear, I locked in these rankings and projections days before the Indians signed Michael Bourn, so this reflects a lower opinion of the Indians that is appropriate. The numbers reflect my views in the days before Spring Training, so for consistency’s sake, I’ll stand by them. The Indians added Bourn, Swisher, Stubbs, and Reynolds on offense and Myers, Bauer, and Dice-K in the rotation this offseason and should be better in 2013 for it. I kind of like their positions players and would like them more if they had one elite bat to put in the middle. But the pitching just can’t cut it. They have plenty of guys I like at the back end of a rotation, but no one I like for the top in 2013.
3. Kansas City Royals (76-86, 23)
Listen, the Royals didn’t get that much better. They added Ervin Santana who was terrible last year. They added Jeremy Guthrie who is okay. They added Wade Davis who could be solid and James Shields who is very good. At most, they added ten wins to their 2012 total. At most. That’s if Santana and Guthrie and Davis all contribute like legitimate major leaguers and if they all stay healthy. Don’t get me wrong, Hosmer should be better and Perez should hopefully stay healthy, but man is that a lot of qualifications. The Royals are no one’s whipping boy anymore, but let’s cool it with the excitement from national writers who somehow think adding James Shields changes everything. Guys, Wil Myers would have been just as big an upgrade over Jeff Francoeur.
2. Chicago White Sox (83-79, 16)
The White Sox didn’t do much to improve upon the 2012 roster and that team was the picture of average. So they shall be again. They over performed my expectations last year because I bet on certain players to continue washing up instead of returning to form. This team is a 78-85 win team at its finest and can certainly hang around if the Tigers let them.
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68, 2)
The Tigers return the same team that made it to the World Series in 2012 after underperforming all season, but they also add Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, and full seasons of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They do so without losing anything of substance. If the Tigers remain as healthy as their opponents, they should win the division easily in 2013. Their pitching staff is head and shoulders above the Twins, Royals, and Indians while remaining significantly better than the White Sox and are serious contenders for the title of baseball’s best staff. Certainly things can go wrong, but they would have to go a lot more wrong for the Tigers than for every other team for this to be much of a race.
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander (snooze)
AL Central MVP: Justin Verlander
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Eric Hosmer
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: The Tigers won’t stumble out of the gate or down the stretch and will make it easy on their fans.
Boldest of the Bold: Joe Mauer will find his power again and hit 20 HRs.
New English D 