Dynamic Standings Projection (April 17, 2013)
In case you missed it, last week we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a new column this week on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 16 games.
The Morning Edition (April 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Phillies and Reds remain tied in the 9th inning as play was suspended with the score 0-0
- In a wonderful display of patriotism, Yankee Stadium plays “Sweet Caroline” between innings of a 4-2 win
- Braves hit five homeruns and improve to 12-1 on the season
What I’m Watching Today:
- Justin Masterson takes on the Red Sox in Cleveland looking to build on strong start (7p Eastern)
- Cards’ rookie Shelby Miller takes the hill against AJ Burnett and the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- The brilliant and wild Matt Moore takes on the O’s (7p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw is pitching (10p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer face off in the battle for the soul of Fangraphs (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s the record for most games ahead of 2nd place for a team through 13 games? Braves have to be close. 4.5 ahead of the Mets and Nats as I write this.
Of note on Tuesday was hearing “Sweet Caroline” at Yankee Stadium in honor of those affected by the tragedy in Boston. That’s a relatively powerful statement of solidarity that should bring fear to the hearts of those responsible. Additionally, the Braves won a baseball game, which should not surprise us at this point. They’re 12-1 over their first 13 games but the only offensive star who is producing is Justin Upton. The other guys who are contributing are names like Evan Gattis, Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, and, I kid you not, Ramiro Pena. Uggla, Simmons, Heyward, and the elder Upton are all struggling. The NL East should shudder at the thought of a Braves team in which all of those players are performing even reasonably well. I would also like to point out Edwin Jackson’s stat line for the season because it is just ridiculous. He’s 0-2 in 3 starts over 16.1 innings and has a 6.06 ERA which sounds awful. But he has an 11.02 K/9, 5.51 BB/9, and .260 FIP. Early season numbers mean very little, but that’s just silly. That’s a technical term, silly.
How Was The Game? (April 16, 2013)
Good, but I only saw 2/3 of it.
Tigers 6, Mariners 2
With respect to the phrase above, let it be known that on the eve of my birthday, when all I wished to do was relax on my couch with the Tigers, MLB.TV saw fit to meltdown for a solid three innings. Alas, it returned in the 4th inning and it had not seemed to affect the team. Cabrera drove in Jackson to take an early lead in the 1st inning and Fister sailed smoothly for the first three. The 4th was an adventure as Doug surrendered 2 runs, but Cabrera came to his rescue with a 2 run homerun to right centerfield that returned the Tigers to the lead in the 5th. The Big Fella wasn’t done, however, and drove Jackson in again in the top of the 7th to give the Tigers a 4-2 lead. They would add two more in the 8th thanks to two based loaded walks by Jackson and Hunter. Fister would maneuver his way through 7 and the bullpen did the rest to secure the Tigers’ third straight victory and their 8th overall on the season. The Tigers struggled against the Mariners last season (1-5) and an early win should help reverse that trend for 2013. Max Scherzer will meet Felix Hernandez Wednesday night at 10pm, so schedule an appointment with your television. There could literally be 25 strikeouts, which would be worth seeing with your own eyes.
The Moment: Miguel Cabrera gives the Tigers the lead with a 2 run homerun in the 5th
The Morning Edition (April 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The joy of a Sox win on Patriot’s Day is marred by tragedy in Boston
- The Nats pound the Marlins behind a CG from Zimmerman
- The Reds survive a tight one against the Phillies
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kris Medlen takes the mound for the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Barry Zito tries to keep the magic going against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
- Chris Capuano makes his first start in place of Zach Greinke (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will the teams who didn’t play Monday wear #42?
Baseball took a backseat on Monday after attacks killed and wounded many during the Boston Marathon. Our hearts are heavy for those who lost loved ones and who are currently fighting for their lives. Boston isn’t a city that will stay down for long. For today, this Tigers fan says “Go Red Sox.”
The Morning Edition (April 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clay Buchholz makes a run at his second no-hitter in a 5-0 win over the Rays
- The Braves complete a sweep of the Nats with a 9-0 win
- Halladay goes 8, gives up 1 run in a 2-1 win over the Marlins
- The Giants outslug the Cubs in 10, win 10-7
What I’m Watching Today:
- MLB celebrates Jackie Robinson day
- Rays and Sox play a morning game on Patriot’s Day in Boston (11a Eastern)
- Cliff Lee looks to stay sharp against the Reds (7p Eastern)
- The Padres and Dodgers meet just three days after Quentin injures Greinke, but Quentin will begin serving his suspension and won’t be in the lineup (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will stand out on a day meant to honor the great #42?
Roy Halladay pitched deep into the game in Miami yesterday, temporarily quieting the whispers, but it was against one of the worst teams in the league, so we have to be cautiously optimistic. After two rough starts to get the season going, Halladay was much closer to his old self and should get a chance to fully correct his recent woes. The other big story on Sunday was the Braves completing a 3 games sweep of division rival Washington, who most, including the author, believe to be the best team in the league. Certainly one series doesn’t change my opinion of the clubs, but the Braves have played very well out of the gate and are putting early distance between themselves and the Nats. It doesn’t mean they’re a better team, but every game is going to count and I’d rather be ahead than behind after two weeks.
Ahead today is the Padres and Dodgers game that will feature neither of the principals from last Thursday’s melee, but it should feature some tempers. I doubt we’ll see any beanballs given the cost of escalating the conflict further, but I expect the Dodger faithful will have something to say to the Padres as they take the field. Vin Scully will be on the mic at 10pm, try not to miss it.
It’s too early to make meaningful statistical arguments about performance, but Justin Upton and Prince Fielder are leading the MVP races over the first two weeks. In 12 games, Upton has 7 HR, a .348/.415/.891 slash line, and a 242 wRC+, good for 1.1 WAR. Fielder only has 4 HR, but his .429/.527/.833 line and 250 wRC+ are no less impressive alongside his 1.0 WAR. Like I said, it’s too early for these numbers to be predictive of anything, but both players have sustained the performances long enough to consider them noteworthy and impressive in their own rights. Many players are having good fortnights, but these two are leading the way.
Pitchingwise, it’s a bit more difficult to separate the players, but Kershaw, Wainwright, Darvish, and Harvey would be the arms I’d point to as the early year standouts. It’s too early to make much of it, but they, among others, have been the most fun to watch in the early goings.
How Was The Game? (April 14, 2013)
A big win.
Tigers 10, A’s 1
It went like this for the Tigers on Sunday. Score early, score often, don’t let them score. When that happens, as it did for them today, you win and win easily. The Tigers scored twice in each of the first two innings, four times in the fourth frame, and once each in the 7th and 8th, while allowing just one run in the bottom of the 4th. Sanchez struckout 8 over 7 innings and Porcello delivered two easy innings in relief to get some work in due to the upcoming off day that will allow the Tigers to skip him this time through the rotation. Austin Jackson had 4 hits including his first homerun, scored 3 runs, and drove in 3 ahead of Torii Hunter who had 3 hits of his own. Every starter except Infante had at least one hit in the big offensive effort that included 14 hits and 5 walks. The Tigers improve to 7-5 on the season after taking their third consecutive series as they slowed down the hot A’s this weekend in Oakland. They’ll head north to Seattle for a three game series starting Tuesday and will send Doug Fister to the hill against Aaron Harang.
The Moment: Hunter slides around the tag at home to score the second run of the game in the first inning.
The Morning Edition (April 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Harvey takes a no-hitter into the 7th in a 4-2 win over the Twins
- Wainwright throws a CGSO with 12K in an 8-0 thumping of the Crew
- Strasburg gives the Nats 6 strong innings, but Hudson is better as the Braves win 3-1
What I’m Watching Today:
- Roy Halladay tries to right the ship again, this time against the Fish in Miami (1p Eastern)
- Maholm and Gonzalez face off in DC (1p Eastern)
- Phil Humber and the Astros look to take advantage of the slumping Halos (330p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- If Halladay can’t get going against the Marlins, is it time to talk DL?
The two big stories for me on a full Saturday of baseball were Harvey and Wainwright. Harvey continues to dominate and came within a few outs of throwing the second no-hitter in Mets history. His fastball got faster as the game went on and all four pitches looked great in his standout performance. I’ve been drooling over him all season, and he just keeps delivering. I’m officially putting Harvey on the list of pitchers who are appointment television right now. The list includes Verlander, Kershaw, King Felix, Strasburg, and now Harvey. It’s a fluid list, but right now, I don’t think you can afford to miss a Matt Harvey start. Speaking of appointment TV, have you seen what Wainwright is doing this season? After his CGSO today, he has thrown 22IP with 24 strikeouts and 0 walks. To find another pitcher with no walks, you have to drop down to Cliff Lee who has thrown 7 2/3 fewer innings and after that you have to go down to Kyle Lohse who only has 13 innings this season. I think it’s safe to say Adam Wainwright has fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery and is back to being an ace.
How Was The Game? (April 13, 2013)
Closer than it needed to be.
Tigers 7, A’s 3
Needing a boost after a tough 12 inning loss on Friday, the Tigers called on Justin Verlander. Verlander was only able toss six innings thanks to a long, laborious 4th, but he was effective, allowing just 1 run and striking out 6. The offense carried the day thanks in part to homeruns from Hunter, Fielder, and Peralta. The bullpen struggled again with Alburquerque, Coke, and Benoit piecing together the final nine outs while allowing two runs. For a game in which the Tigers offense put up 7 runs and sent Verlander to the hill, this one felt too close in the late innings. The Tigers’ relievers need to get a handle on their command in a hurry or we’re going to have some high antacid bills coming this summer. It certainly didn’t help that Dotel, Downs, and Smyly were unavailable due to workload concerns with the lefties and an elbow issue with Dotel, but you need to be able to trust your bullpen to hold a six run lead. With today’s win the Tigers improve to 6-5 and send Anibal Sanchez to the hill against Jarrod Parker tomorrow looking for a third straight series win.
The Moment: Torii Hunter launches a long 2-out homerun in the 3rd inning.
The Nine Signs You’re a Die Hard Baseball Fan
This week on The Nine we’re providing a public service announcement about a serious affliction that affects so many of us. Learn the signs of being a Die Hard Baseball fan. They are as follows:
9. You decorate your home with no regard for aesthetics but rather care about how much team paraphernalia you can place on your walls.
This is a classic sign. There is such a thing as taste in that too much team gear can be obnoxious, as if you’re in a TGI Fridays. However, if you’re a die-hard fan, you don’t care. You place it everywhere it will fit because you love your team.
8. You consider your MLB.TV/Extra Innings subscription to be a non-discretionary expense.
This one is simple, you would sooner give up gasoline than you would access to baseball.
7. Your friends have stopped asking you to hang out during games.
They know that you’ll always choose watching baseball over spending time with other people, unless their desired activity is also watching baseball.
6. You plan procreation around important times of the season.
One would never want to be in the position to miss a playoff game or Opening Day while your wife/you go into labor. This means absolutely no hanky panky during February or July.
5. You spend the offseason in a state of depression despite normally fun events such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, etc.
It’s unavoidable, November to April is just the worst.
4. Your entire schedule centers around game times including doctor’s appointments, classes, meetings, etc.
When someone asks you to schedule something, you don’t check your schedule, you check the team’s schedule.
3. You can only communicate with others if they understand baseball analogies.
“So you’re saying your oldest kid is more of the Avila of the family?”
2. Summer travel is restricted to cities with MLB teams and hotels with MLB Network.
“A free trip to Paris in June? Are you crazy? We have have a nine game homestand starting that week.”
1. You develop hatred toward other people and even other entire states because they cheer for your team’s rival.
For example, you avoid the entire state of Minnesota because it’s terrible.
Do you suffer from these symptoms? If so, don’t call a doctor, you’re fine. If you don’t do these things, call a doctor because you don’t like baseball the right amount.
The Morning Edition (April 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Quentin suspended 8 games for Thursday’s incident, Greinke will miss 8 weeks
- Reyes injures his ankle in an 8-4 win over the Royals, will miss 1-3 months
- Masterson throws a CGSO in a 1-0 win of the White Sox
- Kershaw gives up first 3 runs of the season, loses
- Ramiro Pena’s HR lifts the Braves over the Nats in 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on Hudson in DC (1p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Samardzija face off at Wrigley (1p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Twins (4p Eastern)
- Dickey and Shields battle in a clash of new team aces (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long will the Angels be able to avoid panicking after another slow start?
So much happened on Friday and there are many interesting matchups coming up today that I really had to truncate those bullet points for the first time. I didn’t even mention the Phillies winning in extras or the Astros beating up on the Angels. The Quentin suspension is too light for my taste but fits with precedent. MLB needs to readjust the punishment for this type of thing, as I wrote yesterday. Clear your schedules today because Strasburg, Harvey, Verlander, Price, Lester, Dickey, and many other top pitchers are on the hill. It’s a good time to be alive, people.
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