The Morning Edition (May 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zimmermann strikes out 8 and walks none across eight shutout innings as the Nats beat the Braves 2-0
- Red Sox bats rock the Jays as Buchholz dominates again
- Raburn has 4 more hits to power Bauer to his first win despite 6 walks in 5 innings against Cliff Lee
- Feldman K’s 12 in a CG win over the Padres
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ervin Santana looks to keep his early season success going against the Rays (2p Eastern)
- Haren tries to stay on track as Medlen tries to bounce back in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Jake Westbrook’s 0.98 ERA on display against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How series is Bryce Harper’s injury?
Ryan Raburn was always fun to watch in my opinion, even though most Tigers fans didn’t feel that way. He’s up to his old tricks in Cleveland destroying the baseball over the last three days (11 for 13, 4HR). This is his updated line: .364/.407/.655 with a 193 wRC+ and a positive 1.9 UZR which is good for 1.0 WAR in just 16 games. Obviously he won’t keep that up, but Ryan Raburn is basically Babe Ruth so far this season. He’s capable of amazing things and from 2009-2011 was incredible in the 2nd half of the season. He’s doing it early this year. Watch out.
How Was The Game? (May 1, 2013)
It had to end sometime.
Twins 6, Tigers 2
Despite a 40+ pitch first inning in which he allowed 2 runs and a 2nd inning in which he allowed another, Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 39.2 IP, 11.34 K/9, 1.82 ERA, 1.33 FIP, 2.0 WAR) settled in and turned in a solid pitching performance against the Twins allowing just 7 baserunners and 3 runs to go with his 9 strikeouts over 6 innings. Unfortunately, just as the Tigers were rallying after a slow start in the bottom of the 6th, the bullpen erased the progress as Rondon allowed 2 in the 7th and Downs allowed 1 in the 8th to extend the deficit to four runs. With Dotel and Coke on the DL and Smyly and Alburquerque getting the day off, the Tigers didn’t have a lot of options in the ‘pen, but it’s likely that Rondon will head back to Toledo after today’s outing in which he couldn’t find the plate or get anyone to miss his fastball, especially considering how easily Ortega handled the Twins in the 9th. The Tigers still won the series and finish the homestand 6-2 and 15-11 overall as they hop on a plane for Houston to start a four game set on Thursday behind Rick Porcello (1-2, 19.1 IP, 8.84 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 0.0 WAR).
The Moment: Sanchez retires the last 11 batters he faces to get through 6 despite a 41 pitch first inning.
Justin Verlander Conquers April (with graphs!)
This particular pitcher, Justin Verlander, is widely considered to be one of the best in baseball. You may disagree with that statement, but he’s certainly one of the very best pitchers in the entire league. Yet he has become the game’s best without doing very well in the season’s first month over the course of his career. Even in his Cy Young/MVP season, his April ERA was 3.64. In 2009, it was 6.75!
It’s been a bit of a thing among Tigers fans that Verlander isn’t that good in April. But he’s getting better and that should probably terrify you if you are a major league hitter.
Let’s take a look at his ERA and FIP in April across his career:
There was a time in which Verlander allowed a lot of runs in April and pitched in a way that suggested he would allow runs. ERA tells you what happened, FIP tells you what generally happens to pitchers who pitch a certain way. But over the last few years, he’s conquered April. His 2013 April ERA was 1.83. Imagine what he can do this season now that he isn’t trying to play catch up.
This trend is evident in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers as well:
Verlander has made noticeable improvement in April walk rate over the last few seasons and the strikeout rate hasn’t suffered.
Now maybe Verlander won’t take this great April and turn it into a season better than 2009 or 2011 or 2012, but he very easily could. If he continues his pattern of pitching better in the summer months, then we may be in for a treat. Verlander, I would argue, is nowhere near the top of his game so far this year, but he’s getting good results. When he settles in, it could be awesome.
He’s the richest pitcher in history and his teammates are putting pressure on him to match their great start. Justin Verlander has usually stumbled through April, but he did not do so in 2013. Could this be Verlander’s career year? If April is any indication, clear your calendar for every fifth day and start thinking about a trip to Cooperstown in about 15 years.
Dynamic Standings Projection (May 1, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 30 games.
The Morning Edition (May 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Garcia leads the Cards past the Reds with 8 strong
- Shields leads the Royals past his former team 8-2
- The Indians hit 7 HR including 2 more from Ryan Raburn as they rough up Halladay and the Phils
- More than 46 HR hit across MLB
What I’m Watching Today:
- Control savant Cliff Lee faces wild and exciting Trevor Bauer in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz tries to stay hot against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann tries to stay hot as Maholm tries to bounce back at Turner Field (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Seriously, what was up with all the runs scored last night?
The Indians offense pummeled the Phillies and Roy Halladay who did not look like the guy who tossed a couple good starts in a row. He’s not going to be a 6.00 ERA guy, but I don’t know that we’ll ever see the surgeon of the strikezone again. Ryan Raburn is being Ryan Raburn. He’s 7-8 with 4 HR in his last two games and is just crushing the ball right now. He’s the most engaging, streaky hitter I’ve ever seen. When it’s going good, he’s Babe Ruth and when it’s going bad he’s a reasonably good middle schooler. I just can’t look away. It’s a lot of fun.
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