How Was The Game? (June 4, 2013)
Just what the doctor ordered.
Tigers 10, Rays 1
After a road trip to forget, the Tigers returned to Comerica Park and enjoyed some home-cooking at the expense of the Rays’ interim ace Matt Moore. Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 78 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 3.4 WAR) took care of business on the mound over 7 innings of 1 run, 9 K baseball and got out of the way for the offense to do their thing. And do their thing they did. They got 4 in the 2nd from Tuiasosopo, Infante, and Fielder RBI hits and 2 in the 3rd from a Garcia hit and Infante walk. For good measure, the tacked on runs in the 5th, 6th, and 8th to put this one out of reach and hopefully started a new winning streak. With the win, they improve to 31-25 and will look to take the series tomorrow behind Doug Fister (5-2, 68.2 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince singles in a pair in the 2nd.
The Morning Edition (June 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Molina and Beltran homer to back Lynn against the Snakes
- Medlen shines as Burnett stumbles
- Arroyo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rox
- Kendrick hits a 3B and goes the distance to beat the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Mets in DC (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Sanchez in Detroit (7p Eastern)
- Skaggs and Wacha make prospect hounds drool in STL (8p Eastern)
- Peavy and Felix out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should the All-Star Game be?
Someone on Twitter asked Keith Law if Matt Carpenter should be an All-Star, which Law disagreed with because
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/341747971655872512
I’m curious what other people think, but I like when the All-Star game features a mix of star players and lesser known guys having good opening months. I understand his argument is that MLB wants to showcase the stars to expand the popularity of the sport, but I think national media events should be a time for the sport to turn its unsung players into stars. I don’t like when ESPN and Fox only talk about Jeter and Sabathia and Big Papi. National forums should be a chance to put guys like Matt Carpenter (2.5 WAR) and Josh Donaldson (2.6 WAR) on display. “Hey look, here are some guys you might not get a chance to see a lot who are playing great!” I like that aspect of it. The game will have Miguel Cabrera and Buster Posey, but I think it should also have the unknowns because it should be a game for die hard fans as well as casual fans who often use the word “boring” to describe baseball.
Victor Martinez Shouldn’t Play Vegas
I’m sure most Tigers fans are aware that Victor Martinez’s number this year aren’t very good. He’s had a few productive games, but on the whole they don’t look great. He’s hitting .230/.280/.319 good for 59 wRC+ in 225 PA. I don’t have to tell you that isn’t enough from a full time DH.
But there is more to the story than that. I know this is going to sound like an excuse, but Victor Martinez has been terribly unlucky. I’m serious, I have data to prove it. This isn’t just an eyeball test, it’s a real thing. I’ll show you.
First of all, the walk rate is almost identical to his strong ’11 season and he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strikezone so far this season (26.8% versus 30.2%). So it’s not like he’s chasing bad pitches or anything. There are two explanations. First, he’s getting unlucky. Second, he’s not hitting the ball with as much authority as he used to.
I’m going to argue this is mostly about luck, but I’ll give some credence to the type of contact he is making. He is hitting fewer line drives this year in favor of more flyballs, which is generally bad for your production, but it’s not dramatic enough that you would expect someone to lose .100 off their batting average. His 2013 ratios are very similar to his 2007 ratios and in that season he hit .301/.374/.505.
So yes, the trajectory of the ball is slightly off his 2011 numbers, but he’s been successful with the 2013 numbers before. He’s not walking less. He’s not chasing bad pitches. This is a story about bad luck.
A number of people have commented, myself included, that Victor is hitting a lot of balls hard that are turning into outs. That’s true. ESPN Stats and Info tracks hard hit balls (balls can be soft, medium, or hard) and ESPN Stats and Info Researcher and former podcast standout Mark Simon often posts the statistic on Twitter. Here is his most recent update (June 3):
As you can see, Martinez is 6th in MLB with 24.4% of his PA ending in a hard his ball. The average MLBer hits 17% hard hit balls. That’s 7% better than league average, but if you look at his batting average, it doesn’t reflect that. You have to drop pretty far down the list to find someone with a lower average than Martinez (Ruggiano at 22). In other words, it’s very rare to have someone hit the ball hard this often without getting better results. How rare? I asked Simon and this is what he said:
The picture he posted in accordance with that tweet indicates that all but one of Martinez’s hard hit balls at home have turned into outs:
So what you can see here is that your eyes aren’t deceiving you. Victor Martinez is hitting the ball hard and has nothing to show for it. He’s been unlucky in a very uncommon way. We should expect this luck to even out over the course of the season and his hard hit balls will start to fall for hits. Everyone above him on that list is crushing the ball and Martinez has been at the top of this list all season long.
You may look at his .230 batting average and say he’s having a bad year. That’s only partially right. The results have been bad, but based on everything I’m looking at here, the process has been good. And good process will yield good results, even if it hasn’t over the first third of the season.
That said, I still wouldn’t advise Victor Martinez spend any time in Vegas, just in case he’s pissed off the God’s of probability.
Editor’s Note: A follow up piece on the same subject can be found here.
The Morning Edition (June 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jeremy Bonderman’s return doesn’t go well, gives up 7 ER in 4.2 to the Twins
- The Angels lose their 3rd straight to the Astros fall to 25-32
- Darvish narrowly outduels Santana, but has to sweat as his bullpen nearly costs them
- The Dbacks back Corbin’s 9th W
- Lee Ks 11 in 7.2 innings to beat the Crew
- Dusty waits to use his closer and it costs him a win against the Pirates
- The Fish hit Harvey and sweep the Mets
- The Rays rough up the Indians
What I’m Watching Today:
- Masterson vs Pettitte in NY (7p Eastern)
- Burnett and Medlen face off in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Under the radar Cahill and Lynn draw each other at Busch (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Puig do in his MLB debut?
If you follow me on Twitter or were an early regular at New English D, you know I was very invested in Jeremy Bonderman’s comeback today. It didn’t go well. Because the Tigers were in Baltimore I had to have the Tigers on the radio, which gave me a chance to watch Bonderman on television. He had a fastball from 89-92 and a good slider at times, and he struck out the first batter he faced and delivered a 1-2-3 first inning. If you followed his career as a Tiger, you know the first inning gave him nightmares. But from there it unraveled as he allowed 3 runs in the 2nd and 2 runs in each of the 4th and 5th innings before being removed from the game. He struck out just one batter. He actually kept the ball down and had decent movement on his pitches, but without a good offspeed pitch, it’s hard to be successful as a starter if you don’t have a big fastball. It sounds like he’ll get another shot in five days, but if nothing else, he made it back to the big leagues. I’ll always be rooting for him even if he doesn’t have much left. He has something left.
How Was The Game? (June 2, 2013)
Another good outing for Porcello, but the bats let him down.
Orioles 4, Tigers 2
The Tigers entered today’s rubber match trying to win the series from the Orioles despite losing a game they absolutely should have won on Friday night. Rick Porcello (2-3, 57 IP, 5.21 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 0.8 WAR) did his part with 6+ innings strong innings in which he allowed 3 runs (all in the 7th inning) and struck out 7 while walking 1. Porcello dominated the Orioles for 6 innings and gave up a homer and a couple quick hits to start the 7th before he was pulled, but the whole of his performance was very strong against one of the league’s better offenses. His progression into a very good major league starter continued as he used all his pitchers effectively and made these graphs look even better after this start:
Coke allowed two inherited runners to score in the inning, but holding the Orioles to 4 runs should usually be enough (Downs allowed a run in the 8th). It wasn’t however on this day. Fielder hit a solo homer in the 4th and the Tigers were on pace for a big inning in the 7th before it fell apart. With two on, a run in, and no out, Leyland called for a bunt with Avila at the plate and Martinez as the lead runner. Needless to say, it went poorly and the Tigers ended up with a runner on second and two outs and would end the inning without scoring again. They were up against top prospect Kevin Gausman, who was relatively strong, but they needed to provide more than 2 runs for Porcello. The Tigers end the weekend 1-2 in Baltimore despite the fact that they should have won all three games. They’ll take Monday off and will get back at it Tuesday against the Rays behind Anibal Sanchez (5-5, 71 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.87 FIP, 3.0 WAR).
The Moment: Hunter makes a leaping catch to rob Hardy in the 2nd.
The Morning Edition (June 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Ubaldo goes 8 scoreless to beat the Rays
- The Twins walk off on the Mariners
- Miller throws 7 scoreless, Wainwright goes the distance and allows one run as the Cards sweep the Giants in a DH
- Oakland literally walks off against the Sox
- Rockies walk off on the Dodgers
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey faces the Marlins, expect strikeouts (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee goes against the Crew (130p Eastern)
- Jeremy Bonderman is back on an MLB mound against the Twins (2p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Darvish toes the slab against the Royals (3p Eastern)
- Buchholz and Kuroda in NY (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Does playing a different position really affect you at the plate?
You may have heard recently that Mike Trout is crushing at the plate again after his early season slump because he’s back in CF while Bourjos is on the DL. I’ve got to say, this is silly. Very. I could buy the argument if he was struggling when playing a more difficult position. For example, if you move from 1B to 3B and struggle at the plate because you have to work on your defense, that could make sense. But Trout was moving to an easier spot, why would that affect him? It wouldn’t. He’s a world class 21 year old athlete coming off a crazy good season. It’s nonsense to think he was affected at the plate by a position change that put him in a spot that was too easy. Ken Rosenthal has led the way on this topic and points to this split:
Trout 2013 as LF:.247/.327/.412
Trout 2013 as CF: .324/.400/.632
But that’s normal variation. Rosenthal and others just saw it and went for it as something to write about to gin up controversy. Here’s how I know:
Trout 2012 as LF: .326/.395/.645
Trout 2012 as CF: .329/.404/.542
If Trout was affected psychologically by playing out of position, why didn’t affect him last season? This is random noise in his production over the course of the season that happened to correlate with a teammates injury. Want better evidence?
Trout 2013 in Odd Numbered Games: .401 OBP
Trout 2013 in Even Numbered Games: .339 OBP
Look, Mike Trout is better during odd numbered games. The Angels should sit him today. Give me a break.
How Was The Game? (June 1, 2013)
A nice correction.
Tigers 10, Orioles 3
After last night’s Valverde meltdown and the offensive struggles of the last few games, Saturday adjusted the averages back to normal as the Tigers crushed the Orioles and finally won their 30th game after five tries. Justin Verlander (6/7-4, 73 IP, 3.70 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.5 WAR) was solid, even if he was unimpressive, over 7 innings, allowing 3 runs while striking out 5 and walking 1. But the story of the day, no doubt, was the Tigers massive 8 run 4th inning. It started with a Martinez homerun. Then a Peralta homer. Then Avila joined the party with a bomb of his own. It was at this point that Hammel put one in Tuiasosopo’s ear and was ejected from the game to the disappointment of Tigers hitters, who didn’t mind his replacement. Garcia singled. Infante doubled. Dirks walked. And then Miguel Cabrera walked to the plate and whacked a 3-2 pitch into the left field seats to complete the rally. Fielder would add a solo shot later, but it was over when Cabrera fired off the grand slam. The Tigers are now 30-24 on the year and will look to take the series Sunday behind Rick Porcello (2-2, 51 IP, 5.29 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 0.7 WAR) who will look to build on his fantastic outing last time out and continue his breakout season.
The Moment: The Tigers deliver four HR in the 4th.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers May Report
Excellent, until the very end.
14-14 (29-24 overall)
The Tigers entered May on a hot streak and ended it on a cold streak losing four in a row, even if most of the month was very strong.
They end May fourth in MLB offensively with a 108 wRC+ after hitting 110 wRC+ during the month of May. On the bump, the Tigers are far and away the best staff in baseball with a 13.4 WAR overall thanks to a 6.5 WAR month of May in which they struck out 9.9 batters per 9 and walked just 2.44 per 9, good for a 2.92 FIP and 2.99 xFIP.
To no one’s surprise, Miguel Cabrera led the way during May with 2.1 WAR thanks to an otherworldly 224 wRC+ and .379/.455/.767 line during the month to go with his 12 HR, but Jhonny Peralta stood out as well. Peralta put up 1.3 WAR in the month and hit .362/.413/.543 good for 160 wRC+. The Tigers also had decent months from Dirks (0.7 WAR in May), Infante (0.5), Pena (0.4), and Kelly (0.4). Hunter, Avila, Fielder, and Martinez combined to cost the Tigers -1.0 WAR in May.
The pitching ERAs belie how good the staff was during the month thanks to about one poor start each, but the other numbers are great. Sanchez (1.4 WAR, 2.26 FIP), Fister (1.3 WAR, 2.08 FIP), Scherzer (1.2 WAR, 2.95 FIP), Verlander (0.9 WAR, 2.42 FIP), and Porcello (0.7 WAR, 3.25 FIP) all had strong months thanks to big strikeout totals, low walk rates, and a limitation of the longball. Three of the seven best pitchers in baseball during May and four of the top ten overall this season play for the Tigers.
Of MLB pitchers with 50 or more innings so far this year, the Tigers 5 starters rank 2, 5, 6, 12, and 13 in xFIP, which is FIP adjusted for park, league average, and HR/FB%.
It’s hard not to like what the Tigers are doing, as they lead MLB in WAR at the end of May and are in first place despite finishing the month with four straight losses. Fans sometimes have a tendency to focus on your team’s struggles without realizing that your team is one of the best teams in the league because you don’t watch every other team day in and day, thus failing to notice their flaws. The Tigers are very, very good. Their starters are on another level and their offense is also deadly. Teams will go through poor stretches throughout a 162 games schedule and will not play at the exact same pace for an entire year. There will be variation, and you have to be able to see the forest rather than the trees.
The Moment: Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins, coming within two outs, on May 24th.
MLB Power Rankings June 2013
Before the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings projection based on the games from the previous week, and at the beginning of every month, have synthesized that into league-wide power rankings. What follows are my MLB Power Rankings for June 2013. (You can find May’s here.)
The idea is simple. I ranked the teams at the beginning of the season based on how well I thought they would perform over the entire season. I am doing the same thing here, but I just have new information to include based on a months worth of games and injuries.
30. Miami Marlins (May Ranking: 30)
The Marlins are on pace for fewer wins than the 2003 Tigers and currently have the league’s worst offensive by wRC+ and WAR and the 6th worst pitching staff by WAR. As a team they are hitting .221/.281/.316. That line isn’t really isn’t good enough to stay in the major leagues as a bench player unless you’re a great defender. The Marlins are terrible and not in a hopeful way like the Astros.
29. Houston Astros (29)
The Astros have the 9th worst offense in the league and 2nd worst pitching staff, but they do have an air of decency surrounding them. They have something to prove, while the Marlins have nothing for which to live. Neither team is any good, but the Astros are better in my book.
28. Minnesota Twins (27)
The Twins have a bad offense, a bad defense, and mediocre pitching that is performing above and beyond what it is probably capable of for an entire season. The sum total of their position players (2.3 WAR) has been dragged above zero entirely by their best player, Joe Mauer (2.3 WAR). The Twins aren’t the abject failures that the Marlins are, and they have some major league level talent, but they’re nowhere near good.
27. San Diego Padres (26)
I was mildly bullish on the Padres entering the season, figuring they could hit well enough to hang around .500 with some solid pitching. Well, the offense has actually done the job (97 wRC+), but the pitching has been the worst in baseball (-2.7 WAR) with a really terrible FIP (4.56) despite playing half their games in Petco Park.
26. Seattle Mariners (24)
The Mariners’ ranks (18th best offense, 13th best pitching) probably deserve a higher spot on this list, but I can’t do it. Kyle Seager is a solid player and Kendrys Morales is having a nice bounce back year, but when those two guys are your offensive studs, it’s probably going to be a long season.
25. Chicago Cubs (28)
The Cubs move up on the list because their offense has proven itself to be close to average while their pitching is showing itself to be decidedly above average. They’re 19th in offense (94 wRC+), but they are the 11th best staff (5.5 WAR) and have just recently gotten Matt Garza back. They’re likely to trade off their valuable pieces, so I can’t seem them finishing very high in the standings, but they are good enough to challenge the Brewers for 4th place in the Central.
24. New York Mets (20)
The Mets have the 5th worst offense in the game (88 wRC+) and 5th worst defense (-13.1 UZR) in baseball. Their pitching, which I loved entering the season hasn’t done enough (3.7 WAR) to keep me interested in their chances. With Santana hurt and Niese and Gee performing below expectations, Matt Harvey, as great as he is, cannot save them. They’ll get help from Wheeler this summer, but this isn’t a team destined for great things.
23. Kansas City Royals (21)
The Royals improved their pitching staff during the offseason by trading their best position player prospect and it has resulted in the 14th best pitching staff in the league (4.5 WAR) and the 27th best offense (84 wRC+). I was very critical at the time and won’t rehash it for you except to say that even at their best, the Royals are a .500 team. Anyone who expected more was fooling themselves and misunderstanding the quality of their players or what contributes to success in MLB.
22. Chicago White Sox (22)
I admittedly overshot my Sox prediction this year out of fear that they would overperform again. Looks like my caution was unwarranted as the only team producing less on offense is the Marlins (75 wRC+). They get credit for good pitching (8.1 WAR, 4th in MLB), but I’m not convinced that their staff can stay healthy while also getting some recovery from the lineup.
21. Colorado Rockies (25)
I thought the Rockies would be awful, and it looks like they’re just going to be meh. They’ve jumped up the list in both installations, but they were 12-16 in May and look more like that type of team than the one that had the best record in baseball for some of April. Their offense has fallen back to 16th in the league, even if the pitching is still inexplicably hanging in the top 10. Their early season wins will keep them out of the cellar, but they aren’t a great team.
20. Milwaukee Brewers (19)
The Brewers have a solid offense (98 wRC+) that is carried by three standouts, Gomez, Segura, and Braun, but their pitching staff has been really terrible (0.6 WAR). You aren’t winning anything with that kind of pitching, even if you can score a good amount of runs.
19. Los Angeles Dodgers (14)
When I expressed doubts about the Dodgers this preseason, I was doubting their ability to be great in the way that many national writes thought they would be. The $216 million payroll made lots of people think Yankees, but the Dodgers roster was built with players past their prime. So I said they’d be in the Wild Card conversation, not anywhere near the best team in the league. I got half of that right – they aren’t anywhere close to the best team – but I also missed on the Wild Card part so far. I don’t think they’re this bad, but I don’t think they’re good. The offense ranks 17th and the pitching ranks 21st in baseball, and that is with the great Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers just aren’t very good.
18. Philadelphia Phillies (18)
The Phillies have the 25th ranked offense and 26th ranked pitching so far, which isn’t great at all. However, I think this is their floor and they are still 26-29. They’ll get more from Hamels and Halladay should pitch at the end of the season and Utley will eventually be back. I don’t think they’re good, but they’re doing okay, and I’m not sure they can get worse.
17. Los Angeles Angels (13)
I had the same questions about the Angels that I did about the Dodgers, sort of, entering the year. They have a good offense, but they spent their money on an expensive and bad Josh Hamilton instead of improving their bad pitching staff. It’s cost them. They have the league’s 7th best offense, but 17th best pitching staff and they are already 9.5 games behind the Rangers with another team in between. They’ll play better the rest of the way, but the hole is already too deep.
16. Toronto Blue Jays (12)
Their 99 wRC+ is 13th best in baseball, but their staff ranks 24th with just 2.8 WAR. Partly, this is injuries and partly this is poor performance. Reyes and Johnson will come back. Dickey should get better than this. In general, everything I said could go wrong with Toronto is going wrong at it’s reflected in their 23-32 record. Like the Phillies, there is nowhere to go but up, but that doesn’t mean they’ll get there. Right now, Baseball Prospectus has the Jays playoff odds at less than 2%. I have to agree.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates (17)
The Bucs are going to finally finish over .500. I think. Their offense (93 wRC+) isn’t much to look at, and their pitching (4.2 WAR) is just about average, but they get credit for turning that into a 34-21 record so far. I don’t think they’ll play near this pace the rest of the way, but they only need to play at a 72 win pace the rest of the way to get to 82 wins. It’s going to happen. Probably. Maybe. Man…I don’t know.
14. Cleveland Indians (23)
The Indians are the big movers on the list for a couple reasons. First, they were ranked lower than they should have been in the preseason because the rankings came out just before they got Michael Borun and because I was very cautious above big moves in May because April is often deceiving. But after two months of play, I’m ready to concede the Indians are a good team. They aren’t a playoff team in my book, but they are certainly the second best team in the Central. Right now, they lead the league with a 111 wRC+ and their pitching (3.4 WAR, 22nd in MLB) hasn’t been bad enough to slow them down. Masterson is back to being a good MLB starter and the offense is absolutely for real. They’re a 80-85 win team, but that’s way better than I had them at the start. My bad guys, my bad.
13. Baltimore Orioles (16)
The O’s can hit (111 wRC+), but they aren’t great on the hill (3.3 WAR, 23rd in MLB). They’re certainly a contender, but there are three teams in the AL East I like better this season, but they’re slowly climbing the list as a reward for good performance.
12. Arizona Diamondbacks (15)
I missed a little on the Diamondbacks this preseason because I got distracted by trades I considered to be bad long term moves. But in the short run, they weren’t so bad and the Dbacks do have a very nice team. The offense is 20th in baseball, but the staff is deep (8th in MLB). I love their defense and their young talent and they can absolutely beat the Giants in the West.
11. San Francisco Giants (7)
Speaking of the champs, it’s bizzaro world out at AT&T. They have the 8th best offense in baseball (104 wRC+) and the 27th ranked pitching staff (2.5 WAR). They’re 29-25 despite that and I expect the staff will regress back to the mean, meaning they’ll pitch more like themselves in the second half. That said, I’m not sure I can reasonably consider them a top ten team until I actually see the results.
10. Oakland Athletics (9)
The A’s are right where they belong (11th ranked offense, 10th ranked pitching) and the 32-24 record reflects that. This is a good team built with less than recognizable faces and it’s managed very well. I’m not sure if I’d bet on them to make the playoffs, but they will absolutely be relevant in September.
9. Boston Red Sox (11)
I liked what Boston did this offseason, but I didn’t expect their leading men, Lester, and Buchholz, to also restore themselves in the way that they did. It’s clear at this point that the Sox are legitimate contenders and should be in this until the end.
8. New York Yankees (10)
The Yankees are 31-23 without a single game from Tex, A-Rod, Jeter, or basically Granderson. When the reinforcements come, it should help sustain the performance. I had them down for 86 wins and I think that’s just a little light at the moment considering they’re baseball’s 3rd best staff (8.3 WAR) and are expecting their sluggers back in the next few weeks.
7. Washington Nationals (3)
The Nationals are slowly falling for me. I had them as the best team entering the season and I still believe in their talent, but I do have to adjust my expectations realistically. Gio stumbled a bit and Strasburg has an injury to deal with while Harper has been great, but looks to be hurt as well. They’re just not hitting at all (82 wRC+). I still like them for the playoffs, but they’ve missed 1/3 of the season that they could have been using to set the pace and now getting back on track is the goal rather than setting their October rotation.
6. Tampa Bay Rays (5)
I stuck with the Rays last month after early season stumbles and that looks to have been a sage choice. They are 30-24 are going 18-10 in May and have baseball’s 2nd best offense at the moment (111 wRC+). The pitching is somewhat lower than expected, but David Price wasn’t himself and was hurt, but should be back for the second half. I’m buying the Rays.
5. Cincinnati Reds (6)
The Reds are third in baseball by wins and losses and 11th on offense (102 wRC+) and 9th on the mound (6.0 WAR), which generally makes for a good club. They have Votto and Choo who are raking and a host of other very good complimentary pieces. If only Dusty Baker could figure out that hitting your worst hitter 2nd because he can “handle the bat and bunt” is a terrible thing, they might just run away and hide.
4. Atlanta Braves (1)
The Braves gave themselves a nice April cushion but 15-13 in May is worth pumping the brakes slightly. They can hit (105 wRC+) and haven’t even gotten anything from BJ Upton or Heyward, but the staff is 16th best in baseball and bullpen injuries could pull them back to the pack a bit. They look like a playoff team, but I don’t think they’re the best team.
3. Texas Rangers (4)
You’re sick of hearing it if you’re a regular at the site, but I TOLD YOU THE RANGERS WOULD BE FINE. And they are. The 9th best offense (104 wRC+) and 2nd best staff (10.1 WAR) will do that for you. They don’t miss Hamilton or Napoli a lick and look poised to strut their way to October.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (8)
35-18 is hard to ignore. So is the 5th best staff in the game (7.9 WAR) who has a league best 3.09 team ERA. They’re also reasonable good at the dish (103 wRC+). There isn’t anything not to like, except perhaps the bullpen, and the best record after two months has to count for something.
1. Detroit Tigers (2)
I promise you this isn’t a biased pick. I actually do think the Tigers are the best team and I think this entry will stand up to scrutiny. They’re the fourth best offense in the league (108 wRC+) and far and away the best staff (13.4 WAR). Their starting rotation, as I’ve shown in many posts on this site, is incredible. They have 4 of the best 10 pitchers in the league by WAR this year (and two of the guys above them are a start ahead) and their team FIP and xFIP are both more than a quarter run better than 2nd place. The Tigers can pitch like crazy, but are also a top 5 offense. You know on this site I draw heavily from advanced metrics and if you ranked the teams by position player and pitcher WAR the Tigers are in 1st and it’s not close. The Tigers are 4.3 WAR ahead of 2nd place. They’re something like 5% better than second place by WAR and are only a couple wins off the best record in the AL.
Thoughts on the list? Post a comment.
The Nine Worst Tigers Teams Ever
Last week, as the Tigers honored the 1968 World Series team, I took a look at the The Nine Best Tigers Teams Ever. Today, I’ll do the opposite and will give you the worst Tigers teams ever. The methodology is the same. I’m ranking the teams by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), not because that’s the best way, but because it’s easy to take a look at win totals and this requires a little more legwork. WAR is a good choice for a list like this because it compares the team to its environment, which is good because the level of competition varies and we’d like to control for context when making a list like this.
Also of note, which you can see in the original post, is the WAR and Wins correlate extremely well over samples of this size.
9. 1994 Tigers (18.0 WAR, 53 Wins)
8. 1918 Tigers (17.7 WAR, 55 Wins)
7. 1904 Tigers (15.4 WAR, 62 Wins)
6. 1989 Tigers (14.2 WAR, 59 Wins)
5. 1975 Tigers (13.8 WAR, 57 Wins)
4. 2002 Tigers (12 WAR, 55 Wins)
3. 1995 Tigers (9.9 WAR, 60 Wins)
2. 1996 Tigers (2.2 WAR, 53 Wins)
1. 2003 Tigers (1.7 WAR, 43 Wins)
A few things are worth noting about this list that I think are interesting and/or important. First, the 1994 Tigers are somewhat unfairly listed here because that was a strike shortened season. If you’re curious the 2001 Tigers are the first team out at 18.2 WAR and 66 Wins. Additionally, the 2003 Tigers are not just the worst Tigers team ever, but likely one of the worst teams ever, period. By this same measure, they are the 4th worst team ever, trailing only the ’54 Athletics, ’63 Mets, and ’79 Athletics (also the ’13 Marlins and Astros, but they will presumably add a couple more WAR before the end of the season). I wrote about the 2003 Tigers more extensively here.
What’s also pretty fun is that the 2013 Tigers were not excluded from consideration and are already better than 15 Tigers teams just 52 games into the season. That’s got to be a good sign.
Helping the cause, the worst Tigers seasons ever by a qualifying player and pitcher belong to Jerry Morales in 1979 (-2.5 WAR) and John Hiller in 1979 (-1.6 WAR). Surprisingly, the 1979 Tigers won 84 games and are only the 46th worst Tigers team in history.
New English D 