Ernie Harwell Brings You Opening Day
Every year, Ernie used to read this quotation from the Song of Solomon on Opening Day. Yesterday, I heard a priest recite this in Ernie’s name in reference to the rebirth of baseball, Spring, and Easter.
For, lo, the winter is past,
The rain is over and gone;
The flowers appear on the earth;
The time of the singing of birds is come,
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.
Go Tigers.
Check back after the game for the first edition of How Was the Game?
Happy Opening Day, Everyone!
It’s here. We made it. Baseball is back.
Opening Day is the first day of the rest of your life. We can finally stop staring out the window in anticipation of spring. It’s here.
Take the day off, put up your feet, grab a hotdog and enjoy. This is a holiday unlike any other. Umps will scream “play ball” and fighter jets will buzz stadiums full of elated fans. Gloves will pop. Bats will crack. That singing hotdog guy will annoy us.
In most cities the sun will shine brightly, in others, like Detroit, it will be cold and rainy. But it doesn’t matter. Our long, collective nightmare is over.
Baseball is back.
Mascots will race around the track and we’ll all wait for that first, get-out-of-your-seat moment when we all hold our breath. It’s coming.
On this day, everything is possible and no one is in last place. Everyone can have a career year and there is no yesterday about which to complain.
No more contract speculation or trade talk. No more rankings and previews or roster competitions. Just nine innings of baseball that counts.
Your team’s best pitcher against the other team’s leadoff guy is just hours away, maybe even minutes if you’re reading this late enough in the day.
You’ve made it, congratulations. Another awful, terrible, too long winter with nothing to care about.
But it’s all over now. Seven months of baseball begins today.
I don’t know about you, but for me, it’s about time.
Happy Opening Day, friends. I’ve missed you.
This Could Be The Year
Every year could be the year. Even this one. Especially this one.
That’s what we’re all thinking as the baseball season begins today. During this time of year, there is still a chance for all of us. Tigers, Nationals, Twins, and Rockies fans alike all share in this feeling.
Until proven otherwise, every team could go the distance this year. This could be the year.
It’s an annual tradition that we never fail to observe. I wrote about it last year, right about this time, for the Eastern Echo. I wrote of the hope that comes in Spring, both for those who should be hopeful and for those who have nothing better to do than be hopeful.
It’s a hopeful time of year.
Last year around this time, my entire life was changing. I was graduating, getting married, and moving away to start graduate school 700 miles from the baseball team that anchored me so firmly. It was a hopeful time after a long, arduous winter ahead of a summer of upheaval.
And that hope was rewarded with a great season and run deep into October that made me feel close to home while I was far away.
The view from a year later is much clearer. Much less tumultuous, but no less hopeful. The last year for me has been a good one, but it was also taxing and trying. The stress and anxiety that came with such big changes dampened some of the joy that one might expect to find in a baseball team that comes within four wins of a World Series.
Which makes this Spring, this moment, sweeter. Those changes are behind me and with unclouded eyes, I can embrace the 2013 season and the prospect of a title. It’s almost as if the Tigers were waiting for me. I had to take the next step before they would.
The two aren’t connected, but I’m going to believe that they are because, damn it, this is the time of year when everything makes sense. The sun shines brighter and the prospects of a glorious summer are unrestrained.
This could be the year. For the Tigers. For me. For anything.
I’m a pretty rational and analytical person, a true child of the enlightenment. But sometimes, and this is one of those times, the romantic in me emerges. Things are bigger than us and the world is a magical place full of wonder. Sure we can debate all the reasons something shouldn’t happen, but is there anything better than watching a team who has no business winning a division title pour out onto the field to celebrate that title?
I mean, it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball. We all know that. It overwhelms us sometimes. When Adam Greenberg gets another at bat after getting hit in the head after his first and only prior at bat, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic.
Or when Darrin Downs takes the mound three years after a fractured skull nearly killed him. That’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
When your team sprays champagne and the grumpy old man who managers the team starts crying like a baby and waxing poetic about your city, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
So I’m getting romantic in anticipation about all of that. About the flyover before Opening Day and the crowd on their feet for the nobody journeyman closing in on a no-hitter. About the kid from a small town about to take the big stage for the first time. About the fathers and sons sharing a game for the first time. About watching your team finally, finally hoisting the trophy.
Right now, at this moment, all of that can happen. It will happen. For some of us at least. My hope for all of you, as it always is, is that your faith will be rewarded.
This could be the year, it really, really could.
Crazy Predictions for 2013
Yesterday, we published a post regarding bold predictions for the upcoming baseball season. In this post, we made predictions based on little, but that were at least somewhat reasonable. This post will go a step further.
Here are ten crazy predictions for 2013. Think of these as the bold predictions that were left on the cutting room floor.
1. A fan of the Miami Marlins will conduct a protest so dynamic that it will make national, non-baseball news. Jeff Loria will celebrate by kidnapping his dog.
2. During Hall of Fame weekend, in which no one will be inducted, a member of the BBWAA will be arrested under suspicion of committing a crime and will be convicted based on shaky evidence. He will not get the irony.
3. Ben Zobrist will become the first baseball player to ever play two positions simultaneously when he plays both 2B and RF at the same time, allowing Joe Maddon to invent a new position called “superfield.” Ben Zobrist will also play that.
4. Ryan Raburn will hit 20 HR. They will all come against the Tigers.
5. Mariners fans will finally just decide that reality is subjective and start to accept the results of Dave Cameron’s MLB The Show season as “how the season is going.”
6. Jason Heyward will have a slump during June. Later in the season, he will attribute it to the fact that his last name isn’t Upton and he felt left out.
7. The All-Star Game will end in a tie. Selig will suggest awarding home-field advantage to the team whose fans send him the most letters.
8. Justin Verlander, desperate for his first career hit, will enter the batter’s box in Prince Fielder’s lucky pants. He will lace a single to right, but will fall down running to first, allowing the outfielder to throw him out.
9. Cubs fans will arrange an elaborate ruse in which they pretend as if they won the 1994 World Series. Eventually, the will start to believe it.
10. The Pirates will win more than half of their games.
Fangraphs and Baseball Reference Unify Replacement Level
Today, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference consummated a relationship we knew to be coming for the last few weeks. While the two sites have always calculated Wins Above Replacement (WAR) differently, they decided to discuss reworking a component of the metric. That component was replacement level, defined as the production of a player who is readily available as a minor league free agent or on the waiver wire.
Today it happened. Dave Cameron can give you all the specifics over at Fangraphs, and I can’t say I disagree with any of the changes. I like that the two leading sites are working to improve WAR and our overall statistical evaluation of baseball. This is a step in the right direction and it’s good for everyone involved.
But there is a weird result from today’s unveiling of the new replacement level that is freaking me the hell out.
Everyone’s WAR is slightly different than it was yesterday.
Now many who hate sabermetrics might use this as a point of assault, but those people who know better know that it’s just a shifting baseline calculation that marginally changes the precise point value of WAR. The substantive results are the same, just refined.
But for someone who reviews baseball statistics quite religiously, it’s trippy. For example, Justin Verlander gained 0.2 WAR for 2012. Buster Posey lost 0.4 WAR. Most of the exact changes are pretty small and don’t change the interpretation much, but when we’re dealing with something like WAR that is imprecise and on a relatively small scale, things get funky. A bunch of players shifted places in rankings. Not dramatically, mind you, just from 2nd to 3rd or 8th to 7th. It’s minor and doesn’t mean much, it’s just weird.
I woke up today and the past had changed. I mean, I know that isn’t true, but it seems like it. Justin Verlander was the best pitcher by WAR last season, but now he is the best by more. Perhaps this means nothing to anyone else, but it was interesting for me.
WAR got better today and given the people in charge of its design, it will continue to get better into the future. Let’s just hope I’m better prepared to cope next time and don’t spend an hour of my day staring at my computer repeating “this is weird” to myself.
But seriously, it was.
Bold Predictions for 2013
I like Bold Predictions posts because they’re an excuse to make stuff up. A lot of people, (I’m looking at you Jon Morosi and Jon Heyman) make things up and call it analysis, but here at STT, we always need concrete reasons to believe things.
Except when making Bold or Crazy predictions. When you open a post saying this is all made up, it gives you license to go crazy. What follows is the product of that craziness.
Editor’s Note: The first six bold predictions were included in our divisional preview series.
1. Carl Crawford will be a platoon player by August.
2. Freddie Freeman will make the All-Star team.
3. Anthony Rizzo will finish in the Top 10 of the NL MVP voting.
4. Houston will win the season series against one divisional opponent.
5. The Yankees will listen to trade offers for Cano and Granderson in July.
6. Joe Mauer will regain some power and hit 20 HR.
7. Shane Victorino will be the Red Sox best outfielder.
8. Clever women from Cleveland will come up with a funny name for a group of fans that adore Nick Swisher to replace Grady’s Ladies.
9. Peter Bourjos will have a higher WAR per PA than Josh Hamilton.
10. Chase Utley will be the best second basemen in the league.
11. Choo will stick in CF.
12. Brandon Belt will finally be left alone to play.
13. Troy Tulowitzki will accumulate more WAR than the Rockies entire starting staff.
14. People will start to notice Jonathan Lucroy is good.
15. Someone will vandalize the Marlins homerun statue. It will be Giancarlo Stanton.
16. When excitedly encouraging his third base coach to send runners home, Ron Washington will accidentally begin to fly.
17. Watching Chris Sale’s delivery will require Tyler Flowers to need Tommy John’s Surgery.
18. The Orioles will have a losing record in one run games. People won’t understand.
19. There will be 800 stories written about R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball and the dome in Toronto.
20. Lynn Henning will finally admit that Jhonny Peralta owes him money.
21. Someone on the A’s I’ve never heard of will play 100 games. And will be good.
22. Adam LaRoche will repeat his big year.
23. The Pirates will win more than 81 baseball games. A sinkhole will swallow PNC Park right before the final out of the season, invalidating the accomplishment.
24. Despite the shorter fences, Petco Park will allow fewer homeruns.
25. Martin Prado will have a higher WAR than Justin Upton.
26. Allen Craig won’t spend time on the DL.
27. A Mets starter will throw a no-hitter.
28. Brendan Ryan will hit .220 or better.
29. Eric Hosmer will bounce back.
30. James Loney will dunk himself in the Rays magic and have a good season.
Are these bold enough? Too bold? Comment below about the level of boldness you observe and desire.
2013 Preseason Playoff Predictions
In February, I wrote up Preseason Power Rankings (30-21, 20-11, 10-1) and Win-Loss predictions for all thirty clubs. The next step in any process of this kind is to discuss how these predictions will manifest in October.
Let’s review who made the cut.
American League (listed by seeding):
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
Toronto Blue Jays
National League:
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
Atlanta Braves
St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers (tied for WC #2)
And now let’s play it out!
NL Tiebreaker:
Cardinals over Dodgers
NL Play-In Game:
Braves over Cardinals
AL Play-In Game:
Blue Jays over Angels
NLDS:
Nationals over Braves (3-1)
Reds over Giants (3-2)
ALDS:
Tigers over Blue Jays (3-2)
Rays over Rangers (3-0)
NLCS:
Nationals over Reds (4-2)
ALCS:
Tigers over Rays (4-2)
World Series:
Tigers over Nationals (4-3)
Think October will go differently? Let us know in the comments or on Facebook. Should October actually go differently, feel free to pretend you never read this.
2013 Preseason Awards: AL MVP
So this is where I wonder about how consistent I have to be. In my divisional season previews and The Nine best lists, I boxed myself in.
I listed MVP’s of each division which included Evan Longoria, Justin Verlander, and Mike Trout. Logic dictates that I have to pick one of those three players for the league-wide award. I, however, ranked Miguel Cabrera over Longoria in my third base rankings, meaning I can’t logically pick Longoria. So I have to choose between Verlander and Trout.
Those are my only two choices. But, darn it all, I want to pick Longoria. Perhaps my caution earlier in the winter will protect me from the potential Longoria injury. I’ll spare you my inner dialogue and get on with it.
And the award will go to…
Mike Trout (LF – Angels)
Am I bitter about last season? Nah. Awards don’t really matter, so all of the ink we spilled over Trout vs Cabrera last fall was a little much and the cool sobering winter has hopefully dampened the flames of the baseball Civil WAR (get it?!).
That said, Trout is just an amazing all-around player. He had an all-time great season at age 20 and was a full two wins better than anyone else in the sport in 2012. There’s no way he posts another 10 WAR season in 2013, but even if he regresses 25% he’ll still be among the best two or three players in the game.
He is among the best baserunners and defenders in the sport and tied with Cabrera as the best offensive player in the game in 2012 with a wRC+ of 166. Let’s not forget he did everything that he did last season while missing April trudging around AAA.
In a just world, Trout would have won the award last season, but Cabrera won the Triple Crown and the sway of the writers who can’t handle basic math and/or watching defense. But let’s not worry about what happened before and focus on this.
Players who perform like Trout did at age 20 almost always have great careers. Mike Trout is a legitimate five tool player. Mike Trout plays on a good team. Mike Trout is no longer a rookie, so the bias should be gone. The world always leans toward progress.
My awards picks are rarely bold and this one is no different. Trout was the best player last year and I think he will be again, but what are the odds he’s the best player again while someone else wins a Triple Crown? Probably lower. I mean, when has that ever happened?
Can Mike Trout follow up his 2012 runner up with an MVP award? Or will a big slugger take the crown? Sound off.
2013 Preseason Awards: National League MVP
Last season, Buster Posey narrowly escaped a repeat campaign from Ryan Braun to claim his first MVP award. This season, both men will make a run at the award and will likely finish in the top five or six spots in the voting.
But the award will go to the game’s best hitter.
Posey is the best hitting catcher and the leader of a great pitching staff. Braun is a great hitter, but adds a good amount of value on the bases. Tulowitzki brings lots of value with his defense and his position. Heyward is a great all-around player.
The guy I’m picking here is the best at the plate. He’s no slouch in the field, but he is king in the box.
And the award will go to…
Joey Votto (1B – Reds)
Dude, Votto is ridiculous. He missed time last season with a bad knee, but for the 111 games he was on the field, no one was on the same planet at the dish. Not Miguel Cabrera. Not Mike Trout.
He hit .337/.474/.567 with a league leading .438 wOBA and 177 wRC+. He failed to qualify for the batting title because of the injury, but it’s not like he did this in 50 games. This was 111 games and 475 plate appearances. And it’s not like he doesn’t have a history of being awesome.
Add this together with his preposterous ability to never hit infield popups or foul balls you have the most can’t take your eyes off him batter in the game. He’s a strong defender too.
Votto got on base more than 5% more than Joe Mauer last season and Mauer was the second best on base guy in the league. Votto walked in 19.8% of his plate appearances. And struck out in fewer. His power is insane.
He’s just the best.
The knee looks good this Spring, so we can assume he’s healthy and only has one other season in which he played fewer than 150 games. He’s 29 and in his prime and, for my money, the best hitter in the sport.
As an opposing pitcher, no one scares me more than Votto. As someone who loves baseball, he’s amazing to watch and will be an MVP worthy of your attention this season.
Think Posey or Braun will outdo Votto in 2013? Sound off, but don’t you dare say RBI!
2013 Preseason Awards: National League Cy Young
Yesterday, we released The Nine Best NL Starters for 2013, so this will come as no surprise to those of you who did last night’s homework. Yet, for completeness sake, we’ll go through it for those of you who had that paper to finish for MLB Trade Rumors.
The NL has some great starters and a lot of top flight starters just missed the cut here. You can refer to the list linked above to see how I rank them, but my reasoning should be clear through my description below.
And the award will go to…
Stephen Strasburg (SP – Nationals)
There are two major concerns with picking Strasburg for NL Cy Young. First, would be the workload, which the Nationals claim will not be limited during this season. Second is his health. He’s now two years removed from Tommy John’s Surgery and showed no real ill effects last season. So, I’m banking on a full, healthy season from Strasburg.
Given that, he’s my Cy Young pick.
Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee are all fantastic pitchers who I expect to have very good seasons, but Strasburg, if performing at his best, is the class of the league.
In 45 career starts he has an 11.21 K/9 and 2.40 BB/9 in 251.1 innings to go with a 2.94 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 8.0 WAR. Of active starters with at least 250 innings, no one has a higher strikeout rate and less than 30 have a lower walk rate. No one has a lower FIP.
About that FIP, the next closest active starter with a FIP that low is Kershaw. Kershaw’s FIP is more than half a run higher.
We can often get caught up by small sample sizes and extrapolation where it isn’t appropriate, but everything about Strasburg points to this being real. Scouts rave about his stuff and he put up amazing numbers in college. The minor league numbers are consistent.
Stephen Strasburg, when he’s been on the field, has an incredible mix of high strikeouts and low walks. And he’s only 24, so there is a lot of reason to believe he’s going to get better before he gets worse. Roll that all together and I’m picking him to win the NL Cy Young.
I’m not worried about injuries for him, and if we assume every starter in the league performs to their ceiling, I’m taking Strasburg easily. No disrespect to Mr. Kershaw, but Strasburg will be king in 2013.
Disagree? Just watch the dude pitch.
New English D 