2012 Season in Review: American League West
The West was won on the final day of the season. Mike Trout unleashed greatness. Other things happened. But mostly the first two. Here are some final info-graphs about baseball out west.
Final Standings: 
Playoff Odds:
Early 2013 Projection:
Final 2012 Grades:
AL West MVP: Mike Trout
AL West Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
2012 Season in Review: Oakland Athletics
94-68, 1st in the AL West
Lost in the ALDS to the Tigers
So this is the final team-based Season in Review for 2012 and normally I recited the WARs of the top players and talk about the club’s big story lines. This one will be different, because it deserves it. If you want to check out the stat leaders for the 2012 A’s, here is the link.
When 2012 started, everyone had Oakland pegged as a cellar dweller. Everyone. Me too. When August started, we all agreed they were playing better and we should have been nicer to them. Fair?
Then everything went bonkers. Absolutely bonkers. The made up 13 games on Texas and caught them on, you guessed it, the final day of the season. The final day of the season.
This would be an appropriate time to hear the radio announcer from Moneyball say “WHAT IS HAPPENING IN OAKLAND?!”
What was happening in Oakland was that the geniuses out there got scrap heap platoon split guys and threw them in a blender. Then they got a bunch of young pitchers and told them to pitch well. Lather, rinse, repeat. Pray.
And it worked. Lots of people made the Orioles the Cinderella story of 2012, but the Oakland A’s were the ones to talk about. This was the story of baseball in 2012. There was Mike Trout and perfect games and lots of great stuff going on, but gosh darn it, the Oakland A’s came from nowhere and won the division on the final day of the season.
That was magical.
Tied with Texas going into the final day, the winner was going to real playoffs and the loser was going to a coin flip. I remember watching the final inning on my phone while my wife drove me home from a night class. Watching those guys celebrate winning that division was what sports are all about.
No one saw this coming. How much fun was that?
2012 Grade: A
Early 2013 Projection: 87-75
Short Answers to Pressing Questions (Feb. 6, 2013)
1) Where are Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse going to sign?
On Bourn, I leaned toward the White Sox in my post a couple weeks ago with the Mets as a close second. The Mets are certainly the team getting the most attention right now, so the odds are probably in their favor. His problem is there aren’t a lot of teams that a) have the money he wants b) need a center fielder c) are willing to lose their first round pick in order to sign him. Only the “a” is negotiable, so it’s going to be tough to predict this.
Lohse, on the other hand, has a lot of teams interested, but no one extremely interested given his price. With Carpenter going down for the season, St. Louis might get involved, but they have a ton of depth and don’t need to commit this kind of money to him. If I had to wager on Lohse, the Angels make a ton of sense to me, but I’m not sure they will spend the cash, so I’ll go with the Brewers from out of nowhere.
2) How bad are the Astros going to be?
I’ve struggled with this one because it could go a couple of ways for me. I want to believe that they actually won’t be as bad as everyone thinks because it is extremely rare for a team like this not to defy expectations even a little bit. But then I look at their roster and don’t see much of anything. Now that Lowrie is gone, I’m not sure I can even find a two win player on the entire team. That can’t bode well. I pegged them at 65 wins for the Early 2013 Projection of the AL West due out on Friday, but since I wrote that I’ve walked them back toward 60 wins. It could get really ugly, but something about them tells me they’re going to be just a touch better than the conventional wisdom. Just a touch!
3) People seem to be in disagreement over who had the better offseason, Washington or Atlanta. Who should I believe?
Glad you asked! The answer to this question is probably Washington. Span, Soriano, and Haren are good additions if healthy and retaining LaRoche while not losing anyone who would have otherwise had a key roster spot seems to take it for me. Atlanta added both Uptons, but they lost Bourn, Prado, and Chipper. The Nats added marginally and lost nothing. The Braves added a lot and lost a lot. I think the Nats are the better team and did better this offseason.
4) So, like, what should we think about all of this PED stuff?
You should think many things, but the important things are these. First, don’t jump to conclusions until we have all of the facts. That doesn’t do you any good. If A-Rod or anyone else is guilty of using banned substances, the investigations and testing procedures will catch them. Association and rumor should not cause you to form a definite opinion. Let everything play out and then decide.
Second, I think we need to accept that PED use will always be an issue in all sports. Athletes are hyper-competitive people with lots of money on the line. Good penalties and testing has stifled drug use, but it’s never going to eliminate it. These players are rule breakers, but I don’t think they are fundamentally different that players who do other questionable things to gain advantages like stealing signs or putting pine tar on their caps. People will always try to get an edge and I don’t like some of the self-righteous attacks from members of the media who seem to pick and choose who a target is. We have system in place to police the game, let it work and relax. Cheaters are bad, but there will always be cheaters.
5) ESPN is arguing over the best division in baseball. Which one is it?
Good question! Assuming they’re talking about 2013, I think we have a three tiered system. Tier 1 is the AL East, AL West, and NL East. Tier 2 is the NL West. Tier 3 is the AL and NL Centrals.
The AL East has five teams capable of .500 or better seasons and four who could probably win 90 or more games. I don’t think it’s the best at the top, but it is the deepest. The AL West has three very good teams (90+ win potential) and two bleh teams (<80 win teams). The NL East is excellent at the top with two of the best teams in the entire league, followed by two average type teams and one really bad one. If you had to make me chose, I’d go with the NL East by a hair.
However, this could easily change as certain teams settle into their over and under performing paradigms for the season. Here at STT, we’ll be rolling out Power Ranking and prediction pieces starting next week and running into March so you’ll get a good sense of what is ahead this year.
Now let’s have five more questions with even shorter answers!
6) Does my team need a proven closer to make the playoffs or be successful in the playoffs?
No.
7) Which player would you rather have, one who hits .250 but walks a lot or one who hits .320 but rarely takes a free pass?
The one who walks. Batting average is overrated, plate discipline is not.
8) Who will be the most obscure player to throw a no-hitter in 2013?
Fun one. I don’t know how obscure he is, but Jon Niese sounds right now that Mets players are allowed to throw no-hitters.
9) Shin Soo Choo had a -17.0 UZR in RF for the Indians in 2012. That can’t be good for his prospects in CF this year in Cincinnati.
Well, it isn’t a good sign, but you can’t put too much stock into one season of defense numbers. He’s been between -2.0 and +6.0 in every other year of his career with a similar pattern for DRS. I would tend to think last year is an outlier and he won’t be that bad again because such a dramatic drop off seems artificial. But if you’re asking him to play a tougher position, it won’t be good. It could actually be quite bad!
10) Not one player who qualified for the batting titled avoided grounding into a double play last season. De Aza did it once and he was closest. Who was the last player to avoid a GIDP all season?
This is incredible. Craig Biggio, 1997. He had 744 PA, .309/.415/.501. Stole 47 bases and had a 9.7 WAR to lead the league. Tell me again why he isn’t in the Hall of Fame?
This actually gets more amazing. From 1998-2012, every player who qualified hit into at least one double play. Biggio didn’t in 1997, but in 1994, three players hit into zero double plays. Otis Nixon, Ray Lankford, and Rickey Henderson. It gets better though. Since 1990, the only other player on this list:
Rob Deer, 1990.
Baseball is amazing.
Send in questions via the comments section, Twitter @NeilWeinberg44, or on Facebook for the next edition of Short Answers to Pressing Questions.
2012 Season in Review: Texas Rangers
93-69, 2nd in the AL West, 1st Wild Card
Lost in the Play-in Game
These are things to know about the Rangers. They ran away with the division and then tripped over September and found themselves losing it on the final day of the season. At which point, they played in the inaugural play-in game and lost. So it was all over pretty quickly. Josh Hamilton started fast and cratered. So everyone is kind of thinking the Rangers time has passed, but I’m not so sure it’s over.
Adrian Beltre (6.5) led the way and Josh Hamilton (4.4), Elvis Andrus (4.2), David Murphy (4.0), Ian Kinsler (3.2), Craig Gentry (2.9), and Mike Napoli (2.0) had his back. Texas is a good place to hit, but we should also not confuse that fact with the fact that they employ very good hitters.
Yu Darvish (5.1) and Matt Harrison (3.8) combined for one of the more interesting two headed rotation monsters, but it worked pretty well. Scott Feldman (2.3) and Colby Lewis (2.0) weren’t slouches either. Derek Holland at 1.7 WAR, was a bit of a slouch though. The bullpen was pretty solid too.
Overall, this was a good team who lost it at the worst possible time. They won 93 games, they just probably should have won one more. There isn’t much to say other than that.
Going into next year, I like them as an overlooked club. They lost Hamilton, but they have a good enough platoon in center to keep them only a couple wins worse and I like what Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar can add in. Not to mention Lance Berkman. This is still a deep team. The Angels are the sexy pick and the Athletics are still a menace, but I like the Rangers to bounce back.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection : 91-71
2012 Season in Review: Los Angeles Angels
89-73, 3rd in the AL West
Let’s talk about the Angels. In order to perform better, they signed Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson to big contracts of different degrees before the 2012 season. Wilson didn’t pitch that well. Pujols struggled early and eventually ended up having a good for most people kind of season. They probably should have been a playoff type team, but instead came in third in their own division. Oh, and there was this Mike Trout fellow too. It was a busy year.
Seven players topped 2.0 WAR and helped the offense get the team on track led by Mike Trout (10.0) and backed up by Torii Hunter (5.3), Albert Pujols (3.9), Erick Aybar (3.4), Howie Kendrick (2.8), Alberto Callaspo (2.7), and Mark Trumbo (2.4). It was a good offense, especially in the sense that they didn’t give a lot of at-bats to any player who was really bad. That might seem easy to do, but the lots of clubs gave 300 plus at bats to replacement level guys.
On the mound, the Angels disappointed. Jered Weaver (3.0) an CJ Wilson (2.5) were the only guys to top 2.0, but the Zach Greinke (1.8 in 13 starts) trade did help. What didn’t help, was Ervin Santana (-0.9). Yup, that’s a minus sign. He made 30 starts.
This was a team that should have pitched better and pitched them into the playoffs. That didn’t happen and they ended up missing by four games. They started slow and never recovered.
But there was Mike Trout. He was baseball’s best player in 2012 and it was hard not to enjoy that. He’ll have company in 2013 because the Angels added Josh Hamilton on a big contract and revamped their pitching staff. They didn’t necessarily do it well, but they gave it a shot.
But they lost Hunter and Greinke and Haren. So that might be a wash. At any rate, this is a good team, but I’m not sure it’s a great one.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 89-73
2012 Season in Review: Seattle Mariners
75-87, 4th in the AL West
Welp, Mariners. There is one great player on this team who had an amazing year and threw a perfect game. The rest of the team was pretty meh, and while the farm system is interesting, the future still isn’t now.
Just three position players topped 2.0 WAR, Kyle Seager (3.6), John Jaso (2.7), and Michael Saunders (2.3), for the 2012 Mariners and none of them were star level good. Brendan Ryan should also be acknowledged for being awesome on defense at shortstop, because well, he’s pretty freaking good.
Kevin Millwood (2.0) was one of two pitchers on the club to hit the magic 2.0 threshold. I don’t really want to talk about him or the ones who didn’t measure up, I want to talk about the one who exceed that number by a lot. Felix Hernandez (6.1) was awesome. He threw a perfect game and he pitched in near Verlander level fashion. Wow. Worth the price of admission.
Top to bottom this isn’t a great club. But I like some of their pieces. With some exciting prospects on their way and some slugging low risk players coming off other teams’ scrap heaps, 2013 could be better, but at least it shouldn’t be worse.
Ultimately, this is a team with a window to win coming, but they aren’t there yet. When they get going in that direction a little faster, their Season Recap will be more exciting.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 76-86
2012 Season in Review: American League East
What most consider baseball’s toughest division was tough this year as well. The Yankees led the way and the Orioles played out of their minds. The Rays won 90 games. The Sox were bad. The Blue Jays built well in the offseason.
Final Standings:
Playoff Odds across time:
Early 2013 Projected Standings:
2012 Grades:
AL East Cy Young: David Price
AL East MVP: Robinson Cano
The Nine Best Second Baseman for 2013
Over the last two weeks we’ve revealed our nine best catchers and first basemen for 2013 and today we’re talking about those who man the keystone sack. This was a surprisingly tough group to rank because there are a lot of similar players in this crop. As with the catchers and first basemen, I’m thinking about 2013 only.
Note: Ben Zobrist is considered an OF for 2013 by STT.
9. Dustin Ackley (Mariners)
A look at Mr. Ackley’s 2012 numbers might not breathe life into his candidacy here, but there is a lot to like. His minor league numbers suggest he has the ability to get on a base at a high level and could easily be a 15+HR player, especially with the fences coming in at Safeco. Additionally, his defense, while originally a question seems to be playing at the big league level. Entering his age 25 season, I like this as a breakout year for the former top prospect.
8. Jason Kipnis (Indians)
I’ve seen a lot of Kipnis in the AL Central over the last two seasons and his minor league numbers also support the fact that he has a good command of the strikezone and can hit for power. I expect him to be a top five or six offensive second basemen in 2013 entering his age 26 season, but his defense will hold him back on this list a little bit. He’s not a huge liability, but he is far from great with the glove.
7. Neil Walker (Pirates)
Walker enters his age 27 season in 2013 and has confirmed his ability to walk at a league average or better pace while putting up 15-20 homeruns a season from the second base position. That should be good enough to make any list of this nature when combined with solid defense. If we take the past as a predictor, Walker belongs somewhere near the bottom third of this list. But, I’m pegging Walker for a power breakout in 2013 and expect him to be close to 20-25 homeruns, which should shoot his value north. And, being a switch hitter who is brother-in-law to Don Kelly doesn’t hurt either.
6. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
This may seem a tad low for @datdudeBP, but I’ve always found him to be a tad overrated. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a very good player, but there are facets of his game that bother me. First, he’s entering his age 32/33 season, which means he’s not likely to improve on his past performances, even if he can sustain them. While he hits for power as well as almost any second baseman around, his extremely low walk rate (4.5% in 2012, 5.8% for his career) really bothers me. Driving in runs is important, but you need to put yourself on base so someone can drive you in as well. His defense is often raved about, but I’m more skeptical than most in that regard. The metrics put him firmly above average to great, but he makes a lot of hotdog plays (behind the back, between the legs) that he doesn’t have to make. He’s a showman and as his physical skills decline with age, I think that will bite him. Phillips is a very good player, but he has a couple holes that are two big to ignore.
5. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
Kinsler was a tough one to place for me. He is consistently above 20 homeruns and a league average or better walker. He limits strikeouts. He steals bases. The batting average is on the low side of average. The defense is viewed well, but I’m not a huge fan of it. But he is also going to turn 32 this season and he might not get to play second base for the whole season with Jurickson Profar, baseball’s number one prospect, waiting in the wings. I thought about all of these factors and thought fifth made sense. He’s definitely no higher than fourth and no lower than sixth, so I did the lazy thing and put him in the middle of those two.
4. Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks)
This could go a lot of different ways. Aaron Hill was phenomenal in 2012. He was a top tier second baseman in every way. No doubt. But in 2011 he was a mess. A giant mess. In 2010, he hit for power but with no average. In 2009, he was excellent. So this has a wide distribution of possibilities, but I’m betting on the top end. I think it’s safe to say the power is for real, it’s just a question of if he can hit enough for it to show up. I think that he can. If you take out 2010-11, his average is pretty stable between .270 and .300. If I let myself believe that he has gotten himself straightened out, I can easily talk myself into another good year. Probably not another 6.2 WAR, but to put himself fourth on this list, I’m only asking for 4.5 WAR or so. His defense has also generally been slightly above average and I don’t see any reason why that can’t continue. I’m bullish on Aaron “Two Cycle” Hill.
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
I don’t have a bad thing to say about Dustin Pedroia. He hits and hits for power. He steals bases and plays superb defense. Going into his age 29 season, he should be one of the top second basemen in the game and could easily be the best. He also gives hope to small human beings everywhere.
2. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
I would imagine I’m in the minority in placing Cano anywhere but first on my list, but I have good reason. Cano is a very good hitter. High average and power, but a somewhat pedestrian walk rate. Even in his most patient years, he’s only league average. His defensive numbers are very scattered. Some years he’s great, some he’s terrible. I lean more toward the latter. I actually think Cano is below average in the field, but gets good marks from some because he rarely makes boneheaded plays, so he always looks good even when a ball is getting past him. He’s an excellent player and is very durable, but he’s not the guy who I think will be the best in 2013.
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
My view that Utley will be the best second baseman in baseball in 2013 is predicated on his ability to stay healthy. If he can do that, I have no doubt he’s the best player on this list. But he hasn’t played a full season since 2009, so I am going out on a proverbial limb here. But let’s say Mr. Utley can stay on the field, consider what he can do. He hits for average, hits for power, has a good eye, runs the bases well, and plays excellent defense. If you look at his numbers year by year, the only complaint you can make is that for the last three seasons, he hasn’t played enough games. When he plays, he is very good. When he plays healthy, he is incredible. Now I know he’s 34 and likely past his peak, but I’m buying into one more great year from a great player. From 2005-2009, the list of players to accumulate more WAR than Utley is short. It has one name: Pujols. So while his best days may be behind him, his best days are better than anyone on this list for me. And I’m banking on one more great season.
Sound off on this list in the comments section and share your own!
2012 Season in Review: New York Yankees
95-67, 1st in the AL East
Lost in the ALCS to the Tigers
When the season ended on the 3rd of October, no American League club had won more games than the one that plays in the Bronx. They then faced off against the upstart Orioles in the ALDS and survived in five games on the back of Raul Ibanez. It was, at this point, that their season fell apart. Granted, only three teams made it further.
The offensive contingent followed Robinson Cano (7.8 WAR) and filled in around Nick Swisher (3.9), Derek Jeter (3.2), Mark Teixeira (2.9), Curtis Granderson (2.6), Russell Martin (2.2), and Alex Rodriguez (2.2). The failed to register a starter level player only in left field and DH and that was pretty close.
The top of the rotation was very good with C.C. Sabathia (4.9) and Hiroki Kuroda (3.9), but was shaky below either from poor performance or injury. A few good bullpen pieces helped out and they managed to shut things down even with Mariano Rivera.
The Yankees had a good season, but left the stage with a bad taste in their mouths. A-Rod was benched and Cano set a record for most consecutive outs made in a postseason. And that was only the beginning.
The offseason has been rocky. Jeter is recovering from a broken ankle and A-Rod will miss the whole season and has new steroid issues to deal with. The Yankees lost Swisher. They got outbid on Russell Martin by the Pirates. They’re working to get under next year’s luxury tax, so they aren’t spending big.
It’s hard to even recognize them. But they are the Yankees, so they’re make it work to some extent. They’re certainly no longer a juggernaut, but they have resources and savvy. 2013 will be rocky, but it won’t be a mess
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 87-75
2012 Season in Review: Baltimore Orioles
93-69, 2nd in the AL Central, Wild Card #2
Lost in the ALDS to the Yankees
Here’s the thing about the Orioles, they were not supposed to win this many games. If you asked 100 baseball experts entering the 2012 season to rank the 14 AL clubs by how many wins they would achieve during the season, I can’t imagine more than five would have them any better than 10th. But, the funny thing about baseball is that the Orioles won the fourth most games in the AL in 2012. Fourth!
Lots of mean, rational people tried to rain on their parade the whole time. I am among the guilty in this regard. You see, the Orioles were winning in magical ways. They had a ridiculously good record in one run games and extra inning games and they didn’t score more runs than they allowed until like August. They were, by every measure, over performing.
Don’t get me wrong, I love over performing. It’s exciting and it’s fun. But over performing rarely lasts and often the other shoe drops. The Pirates may have something to add to this discussion if you are interested. But the beautiful thing about the 2012 Orioles is that they never stopped over performing. They made the playoffs even though they weren’t playing the best. The lucked themselves in. I don’t say that derisively, I say that as a matter of fact. Normally, baseball teams who play like the Orioles did in 2012 don’t sustain that performance. They did. It was fun.
The offense was led by Adam Jones (4.6 WAR) and Matt Wieters (4.1) and supported by J.J. Hardy (2.8) and Chris Davis (2.1). They had help from a lot of platoons and part time players, but the only players who sustained starter level production are the four listed above.
The starting pitching wasn’t impressive, but it was okay. Jason Hammel (2.9 in 20 starts) set the pace and Wei-Yin Chen (2.2) held his own. No other pitcher made more than 20 starts and no starter made it above 1.6 WAR. That’s not usually how you draw it up.
But, then there was the bullpen. Jim Johnson, Darren O’Day, and Pedro Strop anchored an excellent bullpen, and a bullpen that was well-used by their manager. These gentleman are the reason the Orioles held so many close leads.
So it was a lucky year for the Orioles, but that doesn’t make it less than great. They were a contender wire to wire and made the playoffs for the first time since 1997. They won the inaugural AL Wild Card game and pushed the Yankees to the brink in the ALCS. All in all, it was a brilliantly successful season for a club that had no business being brilliantly successful.
The 2013 version of the team is due for regression mostly because lighting rarely strikes twice, which is what makes lighting so exciting and powerful. Also, they didn’t take steps to upgrade the roster in any meaningful way. With some excellent prospects coming and a respectable core, the Orioles are nobody’s punching bag anymore. But they also aren’t the big man on campus, either.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 85-77
New English D 