Which Relievers Should The Tigers Take To October?
With just three weeks and change standing between the Tigers and postseason baseball for the third straight October, it’s time to start thinking about using the home stretch to make some tough choices. Specifically, the Tigers need to address Jhonny Peralta’s status with the club and which relievers are coming and which relievers are staying home. I’ll leave the Peralta question for another day and tackle the relievers right now.
Let’s start with some basic assumptions. The Tigers are going to carry 11 pitchers and 5 will be the members of their starting rotation, even if one or more of them will pitch out of the bullpen. So that leaves us with 6 slots.
The No Brainers
Joaquin Benoit, Jose Veras, Drew Smyly, and Bruce Rondon are all locks barring a serious injury or some sort of terrible meltdown.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Drew Smyly | 53 | 69 | 9.26 | 1.96 | 0.52 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 3.04 | 1.5 |
| Joaquin Benoit | 55 | 55 | 9.82 | 3.11 | 0.65 | 2.13 | 2.89 | 3.23 | 1.1 |
| Jose Veras* | 58 | 58.1 | 8.18 | 3.09 | 0.93 | 2.93 | 3.74 | 3.99 | 0.6 |
| Bruce Rondon | 29 | 27.2 | 8.78 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 3.58 | 3.22 | 3.43 | 0.3 |
*with both the Tigers and Astros in 2013
Using New English D’s own propriety metric, SOEFA, each of these four grade out as above average relievers for the season with Benoit and Smyly being among the best dozen in the game as of last Sunday.
| Player | SOEFA |
| Joaquin Benoit | 0.79 |
| Drew Smyly | 0.76 |
| Jose Veras | 0.15 |
| Bruce Rondon | 0.02 |
The Question Marks
We know whomever the Tigers call on has to currently be in the organization and we also know that Octavio Dotel is likely out for the season. That leaves the Tigers with 7 relievers who saw big league action this year. These numbers are in relief and as Tigers.
| Name | G | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| Darin Downs | 26 | 33 | 10.09 | 2.73 | 1.09 | 5.18 | 3.46 | 3.31 | 0.3 |
| Phil Coke | 45 | 36.2 | 7.36 | 3.93 | 0.74 | 4.91 | 3.78 | 4.14 | 0.2 |
| Luke Putkonen | 23 | 23.1 | 8.10 | 2.70 | 1.16 | 2.70 | 3.81 | 3.62 | 0.1 |
| Evan Reed | 13 | 19.1 | 6.52 | 1.86 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 0.1 |
| Al Alburquerque | 44 | 40.1 | 13.17 | 6.92 | 1.12 | 5.58 | 4.18 | 3.59 | 0.0 |
| Jose Alvarez | 3 | 4 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 15.75 | 5.79 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 10 | 15.1 | 8.22 | 5.87 | 1.76 | 5.28 | 5.71 | 4.61 | -0.2 |
Downs pitched well for the Tigers earlier this year before struggling and then missing time with a shoulder injury. He wasn’t added to the roster when the limit went from 25 to 40, which signals that the Tigers don’t plan to use him in October. That could change, but it’s possible too that he hasn’t fully recovered from his injury. If Downs is healthy, he’d be an obvious choice for me as he did excellent work until the last couple outings before going on the DL and has an excellent strikeout rate and no serious platoon issues.
Coke struggled with command this season and has become a LOOGY for the most part since returning from Toledo. Last month, I looked into his struggles and didn’t find anything stuff or health related to worry about. Coke seems like an obvious choice if Downs isn’t an option because the Tigers are going to want to carry at least 2 lefties.
Jose Alvarez won’t be needed for his length and it’s hard to think he’s a better LOOGY than Coke at this point. He’s a touch and feel guy who can give you innings, which isn’t that valuable in the postseason.
Luke Putkonen has a solid fastball and some pretty good numbers to match working in long relief (for the most part) this year as he bounced up and down as necessary. Putkonen would be a good fit in principle, but with Porcello likely heading to the bullpen for the playoffs, the value of a guy who can offer length is somewhat diminished. Putkonen is certainly a candidate, but it’s a tough call.
Evan Reed hasn’t spent much time in the show this year, but he’s done solid work during his stints with the big club. There isn’t much to go on with Reed, but he doesn’t really seem to have anything that distinguishes him from Putkonen in terms of what he could bring to the roster.
Jeremy Bonderman is an interesting one because the overall results haven’t been great this year, but he’s show the ability to come in and slam the door at times this year. September will be key for evaluating Bonderman because I’m not sure if he’s capable of being a shutdown middle reliever or not. That might have been a flash in the pan, but I always thought his stuff would play up in the pen.
Al Alburquerque is going to be the key. His strikeout rate is nuts and if you need a big strikeout he’s a guy you want to be able to call upon. But he’s also extremely wild and might walk in the key run as well. He’s been hit hard lately and the overall results package hasn’t been great. He has a high payoff potential, but you’re also scared to use him to some extent with too much on the line. He might punish hitters with his slider or he might get creamed.
Which leaves us with a tough choice. It’s hard to imagine Coke, who had so much success last October and remains the best LOOGY option, doesn’t get invited to the dance. Unless he lays a big egg in the final days, he’s going to join the four-headed monster – even if I would prefer a healthy Downs.
The last righty is a tough one because of the different dynamic in October. If you need length in the pen, you’re going to use Porcello because you don’t need a guy who “saves the pen,” you need a guy who holds the lead at all costs. So a swingman, mop up type isn’t what you need. If Al-Al in the zone, he’d be in for sure, but he isn’t and a guy like Putkonen could be a safe option. He’s not going to come in and get you a big K the way Al-Al could, but you have Rondon for that and you don’t have to worry about holding back in October. The marathon is over and it’s time to sprint.
It’s tough, but I think you have to try it with Alburquerque. He’s a high risk, high reward pick but he brings a skill to the table that Putkonen, Reed, and Bonderman don’t. Presumably, with all of the off days in October and the finish line in sight, you can pitch with a short pen if Al-Al loses it and can’t be trusted. But if he hits one of his grooves, the benefits will be huge.
Should We Worry About Smyly?
Drew Smyly has had a fantastic year out of the Tigers bullpen. That’s hard to argue. He’s thrown 69 innings, turned in a 2.22 ERA and 2.43 FIP (what’s FIP?) to go along with a 1.5 WAR (what’s WAR?). He has struck out 26% of opposing hitters and walked just 5.5%. He’s been otherworldly against lefties and pretty good against righties. In fact, until August, he was dominating righties as well.
In August, Smyly had a rough go of it. It was only 8 innings and 35 batters, but it wasn’t good. It was the equivalent of one or two really bad starts, but for a reliever it looks worse. But even after that rough August, our own reliever metric, SOEFA, still likes him as the 11th best reliever in the game this year. So let’s take a look at his monthly splits and see if there is anything we should worry about going into October:
| Split | IP | ERA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| Mar/Apr | 18 | 1.50 | 0.188 | 0.246 | 0.250 | 0.226 |
| May | 14.2 | 3.07 | 0.214 | 0.267 | 0.321 | 0.263 |
| Jun | 16.1 | 2.20 | 0.203 | 0.281 | 0.310 | 0.260 |
| Jul | 12 | 0.00 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.159 | 0.141 |
| Aug | 8 | 5.63 | 0.353 | 0.371 | 0.735 | 0.471 |
So while it is only 8 innings, the ERA is way up, the average is way up, the OBP is way up, the slugging is way up, and the wOBA is way up. Hitters did a lot better in August.
| Split | K% | BB% | BABIP | FIP | xFIP |
| Mar/Apr | 29.00% | 7.30% | 0.273 | 1.65 | 2.95 |
| May | 23.30% | 6.70% | 0.268 | 2.83 | 3.36 |
| Jun | 26.20% | 7.70% | 0.286 | 2.06 | 3.24 |
| Jul | 31.80% | 0.00% | 0.233 | 0.71 | 1.97 |
| Aug | 17.10% | 2.90% | 0.360 | 6.79 | 3.81 |
Smyly struck out fewer batters in August, but he also walked almost no one. You’ll notice a much higher BABIP and a clear spike in FIP. His xFIP (what’s xFIP?) goes up as well, but not nearly as much, which tells you that homeruns were likely a bit of an issue in August.
| Split | HR/9 |
| Mar/Apr | 0.00 |
| May | 0.61 |
| Jun | 0.00 |
| Jul | 0.00 |
| Aug | 3.38 |
Smyly gave up three big longballs in August after allowing just one all season long prior to that. That’s going to drive bad results over 8 innings. This is a small sample, clearly, but the exercise is useful in pointing out that Smyly hasn’t performed well lately. Is this cause for concern?
Using Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/X data on his fourseam fastball, we observe this pattern in game to game average velo:
The average climbed until his 30th or so appearance and has been working its way down a bit since then, but there is a lot of fluctuation. There is a trend over the last dozen appearances, but not really as much over the whole season. The movement, which is a little harder to show graphically isn’t quite as crisp as his best days, but it’s not dramatically different. His release point is drifting very marginally toward the center of the plate, but again, not in a big way.
It just looks like he threw a bad pitch to Konerko and Moss and Salvador Perez hit a good one. That’s really the difference between a good month and a bad one for a reliever who only saw 8 innings. If there are signs of fatigue or an injury, they aren’t big, dramatic, and clear signs.
This doesn’t look like anything to worry about. Some are concerned about his workload based on his never having pitch out of the pen like this, but he threw 100 MLB innings last season and isn’t getting anywhere close to that in 2013 and is still 700 pitches or so behind the number he threw last year.
This appears to be a blip on the radar for Smyly who continues to be having a great season overall. Leyland appears to watching him closely and has gone five days without using him at this point. I’m not sure if that’s a good strategy or not. I think I would want him to get more regular reps down the stretch, but it’s possible he’s tiring a bit and Leyland knows something we don’t. Either way, nothing I’m seeing concerns me very much about Smyly and I expect he’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball the rest of the way.
How Was The Game? (September 4, 2013)
One you’ll want to forget.
Red Sox 20, Tigers 4
Things were strange at Fenway on this night as Rick Porcello (26 GS, 153 IP, 4.76 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 2.2 WAR) made some very good pitches during parts of the game and got smoked on other occasions. He allowed 3 HR and then left the bases loaded for Alburquerque to unload, pushing Porcello to 5 IP and 8 ER, but can at least take some (?) comfort in the fact that he did throw some nasty curves early in this one. The bats did a decent job scoring early, but it’s hard to match 20 runs (twelve of which came after Porcello left). Not a whole lot you can do about this one, other than to forget it and get ready for Kansas City on Friday with Anibal Sanchez (24, 151.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 5.0 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Mario Impemba calls two innings from a cell phone as the FSD’s microphones go down.
How Was The Game? (September 3, 2013)
The wrong side of a duel.
Red Sox 2, Tigers 1
Max Scherzer (28 GS, 190.1 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 5.7 WAR) gave the Tigers 7+ strong innings of 2 run baseball in which he walked 3 and struck out 8 Red Sox, but his team was unable to gather the necessary offense to carry them to victory. Leyland made some strange bullpen choices in the 8th, going to Coke and Putkonen, but no damage was done. However, when you only score one run – on an Iglesias double in the second – it’s unlikely that you’re going to win. The Tigers will have a chance to take the series Wednesday night with Rick Porcello (25 GS, 148 IP, 4.44 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 2.6 WAR) taking the ball.
The Moment: Iglesias drives one in against his former club.
Could We Assign “Wins” Differently?
If you’ve been here before, or someone like Brian Kenny tweeted a link to this post, you know that we are big proponents of the #KillTheWin movement. We don’t like wins and losses as a pitching statistic for many reasons. You can pitch well and not get a win, you can pitch terribly and get a win, wins don’t even out, and wins are extremely misleading. Put simply, wins are dependent on things that pitchers can’t control and it’s silly to measure them based on something their teammates do. Here are links to all of our formative #KillTheWin work:
- You Can Pitch Great and Not Win
- You Can Pitch Poorly and Win
- Wins Don’t Even Out Over Long Careers
- Wins Mislead You When Comparing Players
- Assorted Facts About Wins from 2013
- Dissecting the Case in Support of Wins
But today I’d like to address a solution that a lot of people are calling for. You see, the old guard won’t let go of the wins and losses concept and language. They can’t accept things like FIP, xFIP, and WAR, or even K%, BB%, GB%. Even ERA is doesn’t satisfy their longing for the “W.” So I’d like to propose a simple idea that simply changes the methodology for awarding wins and losses. Currently, a starter has to pitch at least 5 innings, leave with a lead, and not watch the bullpen surrender that lead. If we invented wins and losses today, no doubt we wouldn’t use such a silly rule.
So let’s use a better one. If there is an appetite for Wins and Losses, why don’t we actually tie wins and losses to performance? Here are two basic proposals that do that while solving a couple of key issues with wins.
The first problem with wins and losses is that it depends on how much and when your team scores. So what we want is something that only measures the impact of the pitcher on the game. Another problem with wins and losses is that the no-decision essentially erases everything you did on a given day. If a pitcher throws 7 shutout innings and gets a no decision, that game shows up in every single one of his stats except wins and losses. We want to judge every start a pitcher makes, not just one in which the right conditions are met by his offense and bullpen.
To partially resolve this issue, let’s turn to the 2013 Tigers as an example. Instead of wins and losses as determined by the current rule, what if we allocate them by Win Probability Added (WPA) or Run Expectancy 24 (RE24)? Those two stats are a bit complicated to calculate, but extremely easy to understand. WPA reflects the percentage by which a player improved his team’s chances of winning. It is very context dependent, but you can still earn positive values even when your team is losing. RE24 is a similar statistic except it doesn’t pay attention to the score of the game and just reflects how many runs above or below average you are contributing. Think of it this way, in a 10-0 game a solo homerun has a pretty low WPA because the game is already decided, but it has the same RE24 in a 10-0 as it does in a 2-0 game. Both allow for the addition of value in a context dependent sense, but both also allow a player to add value even when his team is not. Both of these stats are readily available on FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
Below I present the 2013 Tigers with WPA and RE24 “wins.” If a pitcher has a positive WPA or RE24 for a single game they get a win. If it’s negative, they get a loss. No no-decisions and no concern about how the game actually ended. Did the pitcher improve his team’s chances of winning a single game? That’s what wins and losses should tell us, so let’s try this.
There are obvious weakness to this approach, namely that I’m not addressing by how much a pitcher helped his team, but to answer that question, we have season long numbers that are more important. This approach is meant to give people who want to see wins and losses a better reflection of true value.
| Pitcher | Starts | W-L | WPA W-L | RE24 W-L |
| Fister | 28 | 12-7 | 18-10 | 19-9 |
| Sanchez | 24 | 12-7 | 16-8 | 17-7 |
| Scherzer | 27 | 19-1 | 22-5 | 22-5 |
| Verlander | 29 | 12-10 | 17-12 | 18-11 |
| Porcello | 26 | 11-7 | 15-11 | 16-10 |
You will notice a couple of things. You’ll notice that Scherzer’s no-decisions are primarily the function of his team bailing him out and Fister, Sanchez, and Verlander’s are almost all a case of the Tigers not providing enough run support. Porcello’s are divided pretty evenly. This is interesting because it shows that even on individual teams, wins/losses/no decisions are handed out irregularly despite the same contingent of position players.
For the die-hard #KillTheWin-er, this approach is still too context dependent and derived from an illogical attempt to hand wins and losses to a single player. But for a more traditional observer, hopefully this is compelling. Even if you like wins and losses, surely you can appreciate that the actual way in which wins and losses are assigned is arbitrary and foolish. Why is 5 innings the cutoff? Why do you not get a win if you pitch 8 shutout innings and your team wins in a walkoff? Why should you get a win if you allow 6 runs? Even if you want to track day to day contribution, at least track it in a way that reflects what the player you’re judging actually did.
Now I’m not sure if this is the best way, but this is definitely an improvement over wins and losses as currently defined. The current stat makes no contribution to analysis, this one makes some contribution. I’d still rather pay attention to season long numbers, but if we’re going to judge a player in each individual game, let’s at least do it right.
How Was The Game? (September 2, 2013)
An October preview?.
Tigers 3, Red Sox 0
The two best teams in the AL faced off on Labor Day and the Tigers locked in a .500 or better record with their 81st win of the season. Doug Fister (28 GS, 179.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.9 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 scoreless despite having to pitch around 5 free passes (4 BB and 1 HBP) with a couple double plays and some flashy (?!) Tigers defense. Neither team could score until the Tigers broke through with 2 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th. Rondon pitched around a double from Pedroia in the 8th and Veras shut the door to end it. The Tigers will try to take the series Tuesday night with the talented Max Scherzer (27 GS, 183.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 2.73 FIP, 5.4 WAR) getting the ball.
The Moment: Dirks triples to put the Tigers ahead in the 7th.
How Was The Game? (September 1, 2013)
A fun duel until the end.
Indians 4, Tigers 0
Justin Verlander (29 GS, 185.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 4.0 WAR) flipped the script on the Indians today after a lengthy and laborious first inning and started to look like the Verlander we used to know as the game wore on. It wasn’t the best he’s been this year, but he was solid, tossing 7 shutout innings while allowing 4 hits, 2 walks, and getting 6 strikeouts include a very nice dissection of Kubel in his penultimate batter. The bats were quiet, however, today and Verlander left the game in a 0-0 tie that would only be broken by an Aviles grand slam off Benoit in the 9th. The Tigers failed to rally and sent the Indians packing only trailing the Tigers by 7.5. Despite the loss, the Tigers faithful still got a chance to see Nick Castellanos make his MLB debut, in which he flew out to right. They’ll hop a plane to Boston and send Doug Fister (27 GS, 172.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.9 WAR) to the mound against the Sox on Monday afternoon.
The Moment: Castellanos gets called on to pinch hit and flies out in his MLB debut.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers August Report
A heck of a ride.
19-9 (80-56 overall)
In July the Tigers went 18-8 and put themselves in the AL Central driver’s seat. In August they won 19 of 28 and put the rest of the competition out of its misery. They entered August on a winning streak and continued to roll for seven more games and ended it 8.5 games up in the division.
The Tigers led the league in offense in a big way, leading the second place A’s in wRC+ 124 to 116 (what’s wRC+?) and in Wins Above Replacement (what’s WAR?) 7.0 to 6.8 over the Red Sox. Cabrera posted an insane 212 wRC+ followed by Victor Martinez at 158. Pena, Infante, Jackson, Fielder, and Dirks all provided 125 wRC+ or higher. Hunter, Santiago, and Iglesias all added 99 wRC+ or better themselves. It was a domination across the board at the plate and no one with more than 60 PA had less than a 99 wRC+.
The Tigers pitching staff turned in the third best month by WAR (4.7) and continued to pace the league overall. Sanchez (1.3 WAR), Scherzer (1.2), and Fister (1.0) dominated and Porcello (0.6) and Verlander (0.5) did nice work at the back end considering. The bullpen did decent work, surprisingly in the face of a subpar stretch from Drew Smyly.
On the whole, it was a fantastic month for the team as they put the division to bed. They’ll need to use September to fine tune some things and get everyone to full strength, but it’s hard to imagine having a much better month than one in which they played at a 110 win pace. They’ll face the Red Sox for three, but other than that their best opponent is the mediocre Royals. After five months, the Tigers sit ready for October.
The Moment: Pretty difficult to choose, but we’ll go with Hunter’s walk off. Or Iglesias’ play. Or Cabrera homering off Salazar. Or off Rivera. Or off Rivera again. Or Avila’s homerun. Holy cow.
New English D Joins A Tribute To The ’48 Indians
Thanks, on occasion, to the Tigers, the Cleveland Indians haven’t won a World Series since 1948. Sixty five long seasons. I grew up a few hours from Cleveland and some of my best childhood friends still root for the Tribe. I remember playing one on one baseball when I was ten years old against a lineup stacked with Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, and Sandy Alomar. This is all by way of saying that I understand how Indians fans feel about their team and their near-Cubsian history.
I recall the 1997 World Series and the 2007 ALCS. Indians fans need a winner, but my rooting allegiance is directly at odds with such a thing. Which makes Did The Tribe Win Last Night‘s new project absolutely perfect. The team at DTTWLN have given up on the future and are turning to the past to cover the last Indians championship as if it were happening live. Starting in three weeks, they will begin covering the 1948 season one day at a time as if it were happening in the modern day. They’ll have game stories, features, Twitter coverage, and a whole host of other material to bring the 1948 season to life.
A few weeks ago, DTTWLN reached out to us at New English D and asked us to be a part of their coverage. Their goal was to bring other teams’ sites into the project to reach a broader audience and offer different angles on the last winner in the Rock and Roll capital of the world. Because we like baseball and history and want to do everything we can to make Cleveland fans happy without actually letting them win the Central, we accepted.
Now we won’t be writing game recaps alongside DTTWLN or anything so ambitious. But we will be chipping in. During each series between the Tigers and the Indians, New English D will be publishing posts about aspects of the 1948 Tigers to run as companion content for the 1948 project. This will start later in the month and will carry into March, but it won’t detract from any of our pennant chase coverage.
The 1948 Tigers finished 5th in the AL at 78-76, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy them 65 years later. Come back and learn about the Tigers of the past and see what DTTWLN have to offer. You can find their page devoted to the project here and you can follow the Twitter account here.
It should be a lot of fun. Just as long as it doesn’t give the 2013 Indians any ideas….
How Was The Game? (August 31, 2013)
The night they made October plans.
Tigers 10, Indians 5
Anibal Sanchez (24 GS, 151.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 5.0 WAR) put a messy first inning behind him nicely and despite allowing 3 runs over 6.2 innings, was quite good and rarely in any sort of trouble while striking out five and walking one. The Tigers got their runs in bunches, mostly thanks to two big homeruns from Infante who delivered a 3 run shot in the 2nd and a 2 run bomb in the 6th. Things got close and dangerous in the 8th when Carlos Santana launched a fly ball to deep center that Jackson nearly caught, but couldn’t as he crashed into the wall. Santana would wind up scoring on the play as Jackson was hurt – though thankfully stayed in the game and broke it back open in the bottom half with a 2 run triple as part of a 4 run inning. The win is the Tigers 80th as they push their division lead to a near ironclad 8.5 games entering the season’s final month. The ball will go to Justin Verlander (28 GS, 178.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.7 WAR) on Sunday who will look to give the Tigers a 16-3 record against the Indians in 2013. Also of note, will be the arrival of top prospect Nick Castellanos.
The Moment: Infante homers…twice.
New English D 