How Was The Game? (May 16, 2013)
A wacky disaster.
Rangers 10, Tigers 4
When you see Verlander and Darvish in the program, you expect a level of pitching that you did not receive on this night. Darvish struggled early, allowing 4 runs in 8 innings including a homerun to Don Kelly, but the story was Justin Verlander’s (4-4, 54 IP, 3.17 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 1.9 WAR) meltdown in the 3rd inning. He walked in two, allowed two to score on a double, and surrender a 3 run homer and was pulled after 2.2 innings and just 70 pitches. You don’t often see Verlander get taken out for being ineffective, but it happened today. His velocity was there in spades, but his command was lacking like it was against the Indians and there will be a lot of whispers about something being wrong with Verlander. It’s likely a mini-funk and a reminder of how spoiled we are to rely on him start after start. He’ll try to wash this one out of his mind and get back on track for his next outing. The game also featured Ian Kinsler giving new meaning to “head first slide” and Lance Berkman striking out on a pitch that hit the backstop on the fly. The Tigers will try to do the same and will be back at it tomorrow with Rick Porcello (1-2, 32.1 IP, 6.68 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 0.3 WAR) on the hill coming off three solid outings.
The Moment: The Rangers chase Verlander after just eight outs and as many runs.
The Morning Edition (May 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Choo gets 4 hits, 2 homers as the Reds beat the Fish
- Mariners crush the Yanks, Alberto Gonzalez pitches, Vernon Wells plays 2B
- Price leaves with an injury as Lester and the Sox roll over the Rays
- Greinke returns to the mound against the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Adam Wainwright welcomes the Mets to St. Louis (130p Eastern)
- Cobb tries to last longer, but strikeout just as many against the Sox (7p Eastern)
- Verlander and Darvish (8p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes to Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- With the injury to Price, will my prediction that Moore will out-pitch him come true?
The Rays are being the Rays. After a rough start they are back in the thick of the division race and they are doing it with…offense? They have the 3rd best offense by wRC+ (109) and the 23rd best pitching by WAR. Cobb (3.76 FIP), Price (4.00 FIP), and Moore (4.41 FIP) are a formidable top 3, but they aren’t really pitching like aces even if they have the stuff. They’re playing good defense and hitting well. No matter what people say about the Rays, always expect them to play better than the expectations. Just always.
A Slightly Valuable Graph about Miguel Cabrera
By telling you Miguel Cabrera is a good hitter, I’m telling you nothing you don’t already know. But I was curious about his progression as a hitter and started playing around with the numbers, which led me to the creation of this graph. It seemed silly to waste it, so here you are. This is a graph tracking Cabrera’s career OBP and SLG at the end of each game. This isn’t surprising, but in the last three years he’s gotten better. That coincides with his prime and the obvious uptick in his notoriety in the game.
Cabrera is a good hitter. Not every post can be groundbreaking. This one is just a graph.
How Was The Game? (May 15, 2013)
A near miss.
Astros 7, Tigers 5
The Tigers entered today’s game going for the series and season sweep of the Houston Astros and came up just short. The Tigers got out in front early, but allowed the Astros back into the game and would have to settle for 6 wins against the Astros in 7 tries. The Tigers are now 22-16 as they prepare for a four game series against the Rangers this weekend in Arlington. Max Scherzer (5-0, 54.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 1.9 WAR) was good except for the fourth inning in which he allowed 4 runs, finishing with 7 innings, 5 hits, 5 runs, 3 walks, and 7 strikeouts. Avisail Garcia made his mark on the young season by powering his first major league homerun in the 2nd inning to deep left centerfield that put the Tigers on top, but Alburquerque walked the leadoff man in the 9th and Coke allowed him and another to score to put the Tigers behind 7-5. In the bottom of the inning, the Tigers loaded the bases for Miguel Cabrera who crushed a ball to the wall in deep RCF, but Barnes ran it down and made a leaping catch to end the game. The Tigers will begin the Rangers’ series in style tomorrow with Justin Verlander (4-3, 51.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 2.1 WAR) lining up against Yu Darvish for one of the premier pitching matchups of the young season.
The Moment: Garcia hits his first ML homerun in the 2nd
Doug Fister and Something We’ve Never Seen Before
Doug Fister is doing something kind of amazing so far this season. He’s hitting more batters than he is walking. Through 8 starts and 50 innings, Fister has hit 10 batters and walked 8 for a HBP-BB = 2. This is remarkable just because it’s a crazy thing, but it’s also remarkable because it has never happened before. (Editor’s Note: As of 9/2, Fister has hit 16 and walked 37 in 179.2 IP, he currently ranks 3rd all time and is 5 behind the leader. As of August 7th, this is the BB% to HBP% of every season in MLB history. Fister is in red).
Granted, Fister is only about a quarter of the way through his season and this can’t possibly keep up, but it’s worth noting how crazy this is. Over the course of an entire season, for qualified pitchers, no one has ever hit more batters than they have walked. The MLB record holder is Carlos Silva in 2005 who hit 3 batters and walked 9 in 188.1 innings. That walk rate itself is just fun to look at, but it’s beside the point. No one has ever complete a full season in which they have hit more batters than they have walked and the closest anyone has ever come is a differential of 6.
Now certainly, you will call attention to a small sample size and that over 50 innings pretty much anything can happen. And that’s true, but it doesn’t escape the fact that in 2013, no one else is hitting more batters than they are walking. Not Wainwright, not Colon, not Haren. None of the great control artists of our time are doing this even in the same small sample as Fister. I’m sure there are instances of pitchers doing this over similarly small stretches in history, but they would be very hard to find.
Think of it this way, from 1900-2013, the average pitcher hits 5 batters a season and walks 68. Even in the smallest of samples, it’s pretty extraordinary to find a period in which a pitcher is hitting more than he is walking, and these statistics include eras in which walks were much less common. Even in data that includes the 2013, which will bias the data away from these results, I calculate a chance that a pitcher would finish a season with more HBP than BB between 0.5 and 2 percent if this process played out at random. Here is a graph of HBP-BB with 2013 included, which will include pitchers like Wainwright this year who just haven’t walked many batters because they are good and it’s only been six weeks:
For now, Fister is on pace for a record all his own.
Dynamic Standings Projection (May 15, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the May 14 games.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bailey goes the distances, punches out 10 Marlins in 6-2 win
- McCutchen walks off in 12
- Kershaw dominates the Nationals, but comes one out shy of the CGSO
- Felix outduels CC, but the Mariners bullpen gives it back as they lose to the Yanks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester draws Price at the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Mets (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to action (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Greinke be on his game after missing a month?
I miss Brandon Inge and he is Mr. Utility this year. Entering Tuesday, he has played 2.1 innings at 1B, 58.2 innings at 2B, 18 innings at 3B, and 13 innings in RF. Tuesday, he played SS. That appearance at short now completes his collection of positions in his MLB career. Brandon Inge has done everything but pitch at the MLB level (which he did in college). Love that guy. He’s also hitting .273/.304/.318 in 47 PA as I write this. That’s nothing special, but it’s a very nice utility player. I’ll always be rooting for him.
How Was The Game? (May 14, 2013)
Not surprising.
Tigers 6, Astros 2
With a 6-2 win today, the Tigers improved to 22-15 and a robust 6-0 against the Houston Astros. Outside of a rough 2nd inning, Doug Fister (5-1, 50 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.5 WAR) performed well, posting a final line of 7 innings, 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, and 7 strikeouts against the swinging ‘Stros. The offense was very quiet early, but came alive with three runs on four straight hits in the 5th to take the lead for good before adding on in the late innings. One can’t get too excited about defeating the Astros, but one also can’t expect your team to do anything more than beat the Astros, as there is not a category of outcomes better than winning. With Fister’s solid performance, there are now 21 major league teams that do not have one starting pitching who has a higher WAR than the Tigers’ 4th best starter this season. The four Tigers starters are 1st, 5th, 6th, and 13th best baseball at about 10pm on May 14th. If you’re wondering how the Tigers are doing it, this should probably tell you most of the story (team stats entering today):
The Tigers will attempt to complete their second sweep of the Astros in as many weeks Wednesday behind Max Scherzer (5-0, 47.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 1.89 FIP, 2.0 WAR).
The Moment: Dirks doubles in the go-ahead run in the 5th by bouncing the ball over the RCF wall.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hicks hits 2 HR and robs one for good measure as Twins beat the White Sox
- Masterson delivers a CGSO as the Tribe split a DH with the Yanks
- Upton mashes in his return to Arizona
- Harper injured as the Nats roll
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix and CC face off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore welcomes the Red Sox to the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Corbin tries to quiet the Braves in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Nats in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you think Dbacks fans liked Upton’s homecoming?
Here are the four best teams by wRC+ as of 12:19am (May 14): Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays. The Tigers certainly fit, but I don’t know how many people would have said the Indians, Sox, and Rays were top level offenses when the seasons started. The Marlins and White Sox are the worst, but that Nationals are 28th, which is exactly how we all saw it six weeks ago. I’m a big fan of the Anthony Rizzo extension because I think he’s going to be a star and he’s about to be paid like less than $7 million AAV during his prime. In the last calendar year, he’s played 124 games in the big leagues and has 24 HR and a .283/.345/.485 line good for 124 wRC+. Among players below Rizzo by wRC+ over the last year are: A-Gon, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez. Rizzo is good and now he is cheap.
How Was The Game? (May 13, 2013)
It’s always fun to play the Astros.
Tigers 7, Astros 2
The Tigers performed against the Astros as a team should. Behind a strong start by Anibal Sanchez (4-3, 52.2 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.42 FIP, 2.6 WAR) in which he went 7 innings, allowed 2 runs, struck out 8 and walked 1. In addition to Sanchez’s strong outing, Andy Dirks’ 4th inning grand slam backed Victor Martinez’s 2 run homer in the same inning to give the Tigers plenty of offense with which to work. The Tigers didn’t miss Jackson with Dirks providing three hits from the leadoff spot and Sanchez maintained his position atop the pitcher WAR leaderboard – actually by a lot. After today’s start, Sanchez now owns a 11.28 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9 in 8 starts, which if you’re new to baseball, is very good. Both numbers, in addition to the ERA and FIP, are on pace to be career bests. Should Sanchez keep anything close to this pace up for the rest of the season, this will certainly be Sanchez’s career year. One of the things that is contributing to Sanchez’s success this year is his increased reliance on his changeup as opposed to in the past (as illustrated below by yearly averages):
It’s too early to say for sure, but it looks like trading a few sliders for some changeups is helping Sanchez perform above his career norms early in 2013. He’s also allowing fewer homeruns per flyball (2.6%) than his career average (8.2%) which could be good fortune or the result of the new approach. The Tigers will look to take the series tomorrow night with Doug Fister (4-1, 43 IP, 3.14 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 1.2 WAR) toeing the rubber.
The Moment: Dirks hits a no doubt grand slam – the first of his career – in the 4th.
New English D 