Justin Verlander Conquers April (with graphs!)
This particular pitcher, Justin Verlander, is widely considered to be one of the best in baseball. You may disagree with that statement, but he’s certainly one of the very best pitchers in the entire league. Yet he has become the game’s best without doing very well in the season’s first month over the course of his career. Even in his Cy Young/MVP season, his April ERA was 3.64. In 2009, it was 6.75!
It’s been a bit of a thing among Tigers fans that Verlander isn’t that good in April. But he’s getting better and that should probably terrify you if you are a major league hitter.
Let’s take a look at his ERA and FIP in April across his career:
There was a time in which Verlander allowed a lot of runs in April and pitched in a way that suggested he would allow runs. ERA tells you what happened, FIP tells you what generally happens to pitchers who pitch a certain way. But over the last few years, he’s conquered April. His 2013 April ERA was 1.83. Imagine what he can do this season now that he isn’t trying to play catch up.
This trend is evident in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers as well:
Verlander has made noticeable improvement in April walk rate over the last few seasons and the strikeout rate hasn’t suffered.
Now maybe Verlander won’t take this great April and turn it into a season better than 2009 or 2011 or 2012, but he very easily could. If he continues his pattern of pitching better in the summer months, then we may be in for a treat. Verlander, I would argue, is nowhere near the top of his game so far this year, but he’s getting good results. When he settles in, it could be awesome.
He’s the richest pitcher in history and his teammates are putting pressure on him to match their great start. Justin Verlander has usually stumbled through April, but he did not do so in 2013. Could this be Verlander’s career year? If April is any indication, clear your calendar for every fifth day and start thinking about a trip to Cooperstown in about 15 years.
Dynamic Standings Projection (May 1, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 30 games.
The Morning Edition (May 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Garcia leads the Cards past the Reds with 8 strong
- Shields leads the Royals past his former team 8-2
- The Indians hit 7 HR including 2 more from Ryan Raburn as they rough up Halladay and the Phils
- More than 46 HR hit across MLB
What I’m Watching Today:
- Control savant Cliff Lee faces wild and exciting Trevor Bauer in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz tries to stay hot against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann tries to stay hot as Maholm tries to bounce back at Turner Field (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Seriously, what was up with all the runs scored last night?
The Indians offense pummeled the Phillies and Roy Halladay who did not look like the guy who tossed a couple good starts in a row. He’s not going to be a 6.00 ERA guy, but I don’t know that we’ll ever see the surgeon of the strikezone again. Ryan Raburn is being Ryan Raburn. He’s 7-8 with 4 HR in his last two games and is just crushing the ball right now. He’s the most engaging, streaky hitter I’ve ever seen. When it’s going good, he’s Babe Ruth and when it’s going bad he’s a reasonably good middle schooler. I just can’t look away. It’s a lot of fun.
How Was The Game? (April 30, 2013)
A blast.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
Sorry for the pun, but the Tigers won with more homeruns. It was Cabrera, then Avila, then Price. And Hunter had a regular RBI in there too. They hammered Vance Worley across 4.2 innings and sent him to the showers in line for a loss. Verlander had a rocky 2nd inning, but limited the damage to one run and ended the night with 8 K’s, 1 walk, and 5 hits across 7 innings. His velocity was up from earlier in the month and his thumb didn’t seem to bother him. He capped off his best April to date with his 3rd win of the season (3-2, 39.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 1.6 WAR) and you can come back tomorrow at 12:30pm to see just how much better he performed this April than he had in the past. This win made it 5 in a row for the Tigers and 6 of their last 7 to move to 15-10 on the season with a chance to sweep the Twins behind Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 33.2 IP, 10.96 K/9, 1.34 ERA, 1.36 FIP, 1.7 WAR) tomorrow at 1pm. It’s possible we may see some strikeouts.
The Moment: Prince puts it out of reach with a line drive homerun in the 5th.
MLB Power Rankings May 2013
Before the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings projection based on the games from the previous week, but I have yet to address how that changes the way I see the teams within leaguewide rankings. Today, and at the beginning of every month, that’s what you’ll get. What follows are my MLB Power Rankings for May 2013.
The idea is simple. I ranked the teams at the beginning of the season based on how well I thought they would perform over the entire season. I am doing the same thing here, but I just have new information to include based on a months worth of games and injuries. You’ll notice a couple teams have big jumps, but most are very close to where they started because I don’t believe in dramatically altering my opinions one sixth of the way through the season.
30. Miami Marlins (Preseason Rank: 29)
The Marlins are really terrible and will now miss at least a couple weeks of Stanton, and possibly more. It’s a toss up to decide which of the bottom two teams is the worst, but the Marlins are a bad team going in the wrong direction and the Astros are a bad team going in the right direction.
29. Houston Astros (30)
Would you believe the Astros are slightly above average offensively so far? It’s true, they have a wRC+ of 102, which can hardly make up for their 5.33 ERA, 5.17 FIP, and 29th best -0.7 pitchers’ WAR. This isn’t a good team, but they have had their moments and, I’m starting to think, won’t totally embarrass themselves this year. Don’t get me wrong, they’re going to lose a lot, but I think they’ll be good enough at the plate to avoid 110 losses.
28. Chicago Cubs (25)
The Cubs are an average pitching staff (3.82 FIP) with a terrible offense (85 wRC+), which is pretty much exactly what I expected from them this season. They have fallen on this list only because the teams I had behind them have slighlty exceeded my expectations.
27. Minnesota Twins (27)
The Twins are a respectable 11-11, but they have 5th worst offense (89 wRC+) and worst defense (-16.0 UZR) in the league. Their pitching has carried this far with a 3.41 FIP and 3.3 WAR, but that doesn’t seem sustainable to me over the long run. Their pitching is probably a touch better than I expected, but it isn’t good enough to overcome the offensive deficiencies.
26. San Diego Padres (22)
I was a bit bullish on the Padres going into the season, but their below average offense and league worst -1.4 pitchers’ WAR doesn’t have me feeling great about that pick. They missed Headley for a couple weeks, but there just isn’t enough on this roster to keep them from sliding 4 spots.
25. Colorado Rockies (28)
A three spot bump for the Rockies might not seem like enough to you given their 16-10 record and first place standing in the NL West, but just couldn’t bring myself to think they’re any better than this. The offense has been a league best so far (116 wRC+) which isn’t a giant shock, but I’m not buying the 7th place pitchers’ WAR (3.3). The staff will regress and the offense won’t lead the league for the whole season. It’s important to note that they have played a total of 3 games against teams above #14 on the present list and went 1-2 in those games. The Rockies have 16 wins, but most are against average or below average clubs. They aren’t as bad as I thought they’d be, but they aren’t good.
24. Seattle Mariners (24)
The Mariners just plain below average. The offense (94 wRC+) and pitching (4.10 FIP) aren’t awful, but they aren’t good at anything. Felix Hernandez is a great pitcher, but there isn’t much else on this team that screams more than 78 wins.
23. Cleveland Indians (26)
My original rankings had the Indians 26th, but they came out prior to the Bourn signing, so they realistically should have gotten a bump already. As expected, the offense has been the bright spot (113 wRC+), but the pitching is not so good (4.48 FIP, 0.8 WAR). This is pretty much exactly what we expected from the Tribe.
22. Chicago White Sox (16)
No team fell more in the rankings than the White Sox, but that shouldn’t surprise me. They’re a fickle team to predict. I didn’t want to underestimate them after they overperformed last season, but it doesn’t look like they’re due to match that performance. Only the Marlins have been worse at the plate (76 wRC+) and the pitching (3.81 FIP, 3.5 WAR) can’t really do much more to help. They’re 10-14, which is by no means a deep grave, but if they don’t start hitting, it’s not going to get easier.
21. Kansas City Royals (23)
The Royals are a respectable 13-10 on the young season, which is enough to bump them up two slots in the rankings. I was outspoken this offseason about my lack of enthusiasm for their rotation overall, not because it didn’t help, but because it didn’t help as much as people thought it would help. Their offense, which could have used some attention, is 22nd in the league with 92 wRC+ and the pitching is only 11th best with 2.9 WAR and a 3.65 FIP. The bullpen is great and the rotation is fine, but they need more offense if they’re going to actually contend.
20. New York Mets (18)
The Mets have a perfectly average 100 wRC+ and a perfectly dreadful 0.7 pitchers’ WAR. They have the incredible Matt Harvey, but the rest of the rotation has been very bad. I think that will even out, but I’m not nearly as sure as I was when the season started.
19. Milwaukee Brewers (19)
The Crew are 13th in wRC+ and 24th in pitcher WAR, which lands them somewhere in between at 19th on the list. They’ve been a streaky 13-11 so far and have what I think is an average type team. They could really use one more mid-level bat and one really good arm.
18. Philadelphia Phillies (13)
I’m not worried about Halladay, who looks like he’s getting back on track, but Hamels hasn’t been that good either. They rely on the big three arms and they haven’t gotten enough from them to offset the 25th best offense in the game (90 wRC+). They’ll be a decent team, but their talent falls off a lot after their top few players.
17. Pittsburgh Pirates (21)
The Pirates are doing it again. Good first half, collapse in August. Well I’m not sure about the last part yet. But they’re 20th in wRC+ (93) and 27th in pitchers’ WAR (0.6). They deserve some credit for their 15-11 record, but I just can’t see them keeping it up if they don’t play better.
16. Baltimore Orioles (17)
The O’s are on a mission to show us last year wasn’t a fluke, and they’re doing a decent job at it with a 15-11 record. Their 102 wRC+ is 8th best in baseball but the staff is 20th at 1.7 WAR (4.49 FIP). I’m certainly comfortable with them as a relevant team for most of the season, but it’s hard for me to buy into them as a really good team.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks (15)
Arizona made weird choices this offseason, but I won’t rehash them. They have the 23rd best offense in the league (91 wRC+), but the staff is 5th best with a 3.4 pitchers’ WAR. 15-11 so far this year is good, but they need to hit more if they’re going to move up the list. Don’t worry though, a couple teams ahead of them are falling fast.
14. Los Angeles Dodgers (11)
So losing Greinke for two months was a freak thing, but losing like every other pitcher didn’t make it any easier. They’re 19th best in wRC+ (94) for all their spending and they’re 16th in pitchers’ WAR with 2.1. They’re playing like a very average team despite high expectations. I was skeptical, and so far that looks right.
13. Los Angels Angels (9)
I gave it to the Angels this offseason for spending money on Hamilton when they needed pitching in bad way and that looks like a smart call. Hamilton has been terrible and the pitching staff is 28th in baseball with a -0.3 WAR and 4.64 FIP. They have some good bats, but they got worse this offseason and it could get worse before it gets better.
12. Toronto Blue Jays (8)
I doubted the Blue Jays as division favorites and they’ve struggled early. Their 88 wRC+ is 27th best in the league and the staff is only ranked 17th in pitchers’ WAR. The Reyes injury hurts, but they need more from the star pitchers if they’re going to contend. They’re 9.5 games back on April 30th, so this too could get worse before it gets better.
11. Boston Red Sox (20)
The Sox have made a meteoric rise on the charts thanks to great pitching from their top two. I was worried about Lester and Buchholz’s ability to return to form, but they have done so in a big way. The Sox are 4th in wRC+ and 3rd in pitchers’ WAR and have jumped out to a 18-7 record. I don’t think they’re quite as good as their record shows, but they are better than I thought going into the season. If they look like this for another month, they’ll crack the top ten no problem.
10. New York Yankees (12)
I ranked the Yanks 12th before all the injuries, but somehow, they’re still doing it. They have the 7th best offense and 10th best pitching despite running out a lineup that doesn’t look anything like a Yankee lineup should. Heck, they’ve made it this far without their stars and those guys will slowly come back throughout the year. I just can’t justify keeping them out of the top ten for now.
9. Oakland Athletics (14)
Oakland hits. A 113 wRC+ makes them 2nd in the game and their staff has done good work at 2.6 WAR which is 12th in the league. They’re well managed and they play to their strengths, but the record also reflects the underlying numbers as they are 15-12 through 27 games.
8. St. Louis Cardinals (10)
I was really surprised to see the Cards only have a 90 wRC+, but Wainwright is carrying the staff to 9th in the league at 3.2 WAR. I like the offense to regress upward and the staff is for real in my book. They’re only a half game back of first and Dave Cameron at Fangraphs recently wrote a piece regarding their well-timed hits that produce more wins than the underlying numbers might suspect. I’m not sure if it’s predictive, but I think this is going to be a good offense.
7. San Francisco Giants (7)
14th in offense and 21st in pitching. That doesn’t scream 7th best team, but they’ve been consistently good for years and guys like Cain are underperforming, so I’m just going to stay the course with this one until I see some more data. The Giants are the Giants.
6. Cincinnati Reds (6)
They have the 16th best offense and 8th best staff, but I love their depth in the rotation and some of their offensive players are elite guys. Choo has been great and Votto is the best in the game. If Zack Cozart wasn’t hitting second, they might even score more often! The Reds are a very complete team.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (3)
They’re an average offense (100 wRC+), but the defense (10.6 UZR) has been great as usual. The staff has been surprisingly middling at 1.9 WAR and 3.89 FIP, but they have a good staff and I’m sticking with them. I’m not keeping them in the top 3, but this is one of the best teams in the league.
4. Texas Rangers (5)
Average offense so far, 2nd best staff. I told you so. The Rangers did not get worse this offseason. They are good.
3. Washington Nationals (1)
The Nats were my pick at the beginning of the season, but they haven’t quite looked as good as I thought. I still have them third, but the 93 wRC+ is a little worrisome and the pitching is 15th in WAR so far. They’re underperforming, so question, but 30 games of not meeting expectations is enough for me to drop them two spots.
2. Detroit Tigers (2)
The Tigers are 14-10 so far, which isn’t eye poppingly good, but they’ve lost a couple extra inning games too, so it looks a little off. They’re 6th in baseball with a 106 wRC+ and are far and above the best pitching staff with a 2.66 FIP and 6.3 WAR. Tigers fans will probably even tell you they’re underperforming too, so this could get even better.
1. Atlanta Braves (4)
Honestly, I don’t think the Braves are the best team. 5th best offense and 13th best pitching. But it’s working and it’s working without Jayson Heyward. It’s working with a lot of guys not playing up to career norms. They’re 16-9 and just got swept by the Tigers, but for now they get the top spot because of what they can be if they play up to their potential after they have already jumped out to a great start.
What do you think? How would your list look different?
The Morning Edition (April 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Reds and Latos edge the Cards and Wainwright 2-1
- Ryan Raburn’s 4 hits and 2 HR power a strong Ubaldo past the Royals 9-0
- Braves slip past the Nats 3-2 thanks to a Simmons sac fly
- Marlins and Mets play deep into the night as Harvey goes 5.1 and allows 1 run and Stanton leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay looks to stay hot against the Tribe (7p Eastern)
- Lester and Morrow face off in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Gio and Hudson duel in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Shields faces Cobb and his old team in KC (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you choose what to watch tomorrow? (Verlander at 7p too!)
Matt Harvey limited the Marlins to 1 run in 5.1 innings with 7 K’s on Monday, but it took him 121 pitches in his least efficient outing to date. Yes, we’re disappointed in a 1 run performance. Thanks for setting that bar, Harvey. Carl Crawford is also having a solid start to his first season with the Dodgers after I said he’d be a platoon player by the Dog Days. He’s got 4 homers and 4 steals in 102 PA (at 12:07am on April 30) to go with his .311/.392/.522 line and 1.4 WAR. I’m not ready to say he’s back to being the Crawford who reigned in Tampa, but he’s certainly better than I expected him to be this year. And don’t look now, but even after tonight’s loss to the Reds, Adam Wainwright has vaulted above 2 WAR in April (2.1) and guys who provide that kind of value in April, usually have big years. I predicted he’d be a top 5 NL starter this year, but if I could do it all over again, he’d be in my top 3.
How Was The Game? (April 29, 2013)
Tigers’ baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 3
The formula for Tigers’ victories this year is relatively simple: strike the other team out and hit for power. That’s just happens to be what they did on Monday against the Twins. Scherzer provided 7.1 innings of 3 run baseball and struck out 10 while allowing 6 hits and no walks to improve to 3-0 on the season (13.21 K/9, 4.02 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 1.4 WAR). Dirks homered in the 3rd and Prince matched him with a 3 run shot of his own in the 6th to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead that would hold up for good. The ‘pen backed Scherzer with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief from Smyly (who by the way, is killing it so far this season: 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 17 innings) and Benoit. They played to their strengths and won their 4th straight game and 5th in their last 6 tries to improve to 14-10 on the season. They’ll try to take the series tomorrow behind the seemingly forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (2-2, 32.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 1.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince homers into the visiting bullpen to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead in the 6th.
The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
How Was The Game? (April 28, 2013)
Awesome.
Tigers 8, Braves 3
The Tigers took the field Sunday knowing they had already taken the series against the Braves, but didn’t leave their brooms at home. Doug Fister got the strikeout working early and often and finished with 8 K’s in 7 innings, while allowing 3 runs, all of which came in one awkward inning. The bats delivered for Fister as Austin Jackson and Miguel Cabrera both smacked 3 run homeruns in the 3rd and 7th inning, respectively. Infante also provided a solo homerun and Martinez added a sac fly to round out the score. Alburquerque pitched a scoreless 8th, but put the first two men on in the 9th and Valverde was called on to get the final three outs in the 9th. The Tigers have now won three straight and four of their last five, sending them to 13-10 on the season as they welcome the Twins in for three starting tomorrow behind Max Scherzer (2-0, 24 IP, 4.53 ERA, 1.54 FIP, 1.1 WAR).
The Moment: Jackson slams a three run bomb to left center in the 3rd.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
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