How Was The Game? (April 1, 2013)
[Our daily recaps at New English D will follow this mold for the rest of the season. The first line will be the answer to the question that my mom used to pose to me any time I got home from a game. She’d ask, “how was the game?” Here, I’ll answer that question, give you the score, and provide the type of summary I would to her in a paragraph or two.]
It was baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 2
The Tigers got off to a good start scoring two runs in the first and one in the second before both pitchers settled in during the middle innings. Verlander was good (0 R, 2 BB, 7K) but scarce, only throwing 5 innings and 91 pitches. Smyly didn’t have good command out of the bullpen but didn’t let the game unravel either before yielding to Alburquerque, Benoit, and Coke to get the final eight outs. Hunter had a nice showing in his Tigers debut and Fielder, Peralta, and Infante joined him with multi hit games of their own.
It probably wasn’t the best played game of the day, but it was just really good to have the Tigers back in our lives. We’ll have to keep our eye on Smyly out of the pen and if this was just a one time blip or if he’s having trouble getting loose mid-game. I’m a big fan of the way Leyland played the matchups rather than looking to fit guys into defined roles early. The weather made it tough on everyone, but the Tigers took care of the Twins on Opening Day and improved to 1-0 on the season.
The Moment: Prince Fielder sliding on his face while scoring on a wild pitch.
We Have a New Name!
Hello Loyal Reader (or New One!)
Due to a recently discovered trademark issue relating to the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR), SABR Toothed Tigers was asked to change our name. Being the law abiding citizens that we are, we’ve decided to comply.
From here on out, you can find us here at New English D. We think it communicates the same message and nothing else about the site will change other than the web address and title. If you forget about the change, fear not, you’ll still be direct to our pages from sabrtoothedtigers.com.
Please poke around the site and check back daily for updates about the Detroit Tigers and MLB.
Thanks!
Five Things to Watch in April
Due to the glorious reality that we now have actual baseball to watch and dissect rather than just future baseball to dissect, we can start to look for early seasons indications of how the season is going to turn out.
Here are five Tigers-related things I’ll be looking for in the early days.
1. Rick Porcello’s Breaking Ball
Porcello was the subject of lots of trade rumors and fifth starter battles, but he has silenced his critics with a strong spring for the time being. He dumped his slider for a curveball this season and the results have been great. In 2012, opposing batters hit .394 against his slider for a lot more power, but the early returns on the curveball have been promising. He had a great spring (not that you should put much stock in the numbers) and the curveball was a much better compliment to his fastball. The velocity separation was bigger and it kept hitters off balance. If Porcello can continue to utilize that pitch against bona fide big leaguers, he could tick his strikeout numbers up and turn into the #2/#3 starter that he was projected to be. Frankly, he’s been a 2-3 WAR pitcher over the last few seasons, so he’s already good enough for most rotations. If he develops into anything more (remember he’s still 24), he could be a borderline All-Star.
2. Andy Dirks’ Bat
The Tigers everyday left fielder had a phenomenal slash line last season (.322/.370/.487) but only played in 88 games due to injury. Those numbers are relatively consistent with his minor league numbers, so we have reason to believe the 27 year old lefty can produce like this again, but the MLB sample size is small. Hitting in the midst of a strong lineup should help, but I’ll be looking to see if Andy Dirks is really this good, or if the truth is hiding behind last year’s small sample. A lot of scouts see Dirks as a really good fourth outfielder, but I’m a fan of his skills and think he can stick as a third outfielder on a good club.
3. Torii Hunter’s BABIP
Hunter had his best big league season by WAR and batting average last year, but a lot of that was driven by an unusually high batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Typically, you expect to see a number around .300 with the game’s best hitters leaning toward .330 or .340. You generally don’t see players, especially older ones improving on their BABIPs outside of randomness, meaning any big one year spike should be observed with caution. Hunter had such a spike last year, posting a .389 BABIP on a .307 career mark. Most people see those numbers and think Hunter was the recipient of good fortune last year and was not as good as his numbers indicate. He’s always been a good defender, but is he actually as good as his last season at the plate? Probably not, but that’s okay. He’s a 2-3 WAR corner outfielder replacing Brennan Boesch who was a -1 WAR player last year. Even if Hunter isn’t a 5 WAR player this season, he’ll still be good. But keep an eye on Hunter’s BABIP. If it’s high and stays that way, it may indicate a change in approach in his old age for the better.
4. Alex Avila’s Power
The difference between Avila’s 2011 (4.6 WAR) and 2012 (2.4) is twofold. One was health (141 games to 116). The other was power (.506 SLG to .384). A lot of people focus on batting average, but walking is such a big part of his game that average obscures the truth. Even last year, he got on base at a .352 clip, which is very good despite a .243 average. He’s probably not going to be the .295 hitter he was in 2011, but if he gets some of that power back, he’ll be as good as he needs to be. A catcher who gets on base at a .350 to .360 rate with .440 to .460 slugging is a hugely valuable asset given his quality defense. If Avila is driving the ball for extra bases early and his knees aren’t sapping his power in April, the Tigers can rest easy knowing 2013 will look more like 2011 than 2012 for Avila.
5. Max Scherzer’s Delivery
I’ve said on many occasions that the key to Scherzer taking the leap from really good stuff and pretty good results to top flight starter was his ability to keep his delivery in line pitch after pitch. Last season, he started to put it all together and led qualifiers in K/9. If he can keep on that path, he could be an All-Star with borderline Cy Young stuff. If he gets out of whack, we’ll know he’s likely always going to have that flaw. He has a lot of moving parts when he winds up, so an early season showing that Scherzer can repeat his delivery will bode well for the Tigers’ fortunes this year.
What are some other important things to watch in April? Let us know what you think in the comments or on Facebook.
Ernie Harwell Brings You Opening Day
Every year, Ernie used to read this quotation from the Song of Solomon on Opening Day. Yesterday, I heard a priest recite this in Ernie’s name in reference to the rebirth of baseball, Spring, and Easter.
For, lo, the winter is past,
The rain is over and gone;
The flowers appear on the earth;
The time of the singing of birds is come,
And the voice of the turtle is heard in our land.
Go Tigers.
Check back after the game for the first edition of How Was the Game?
Happy Opening Day, Everyone!
It’s here. We made it. Baseball is back.
Opening Day is the first day of the rest of your life. We can finally stop staring out the window in anticipation of spring. It’s here.
Take the day off, put up your feet, grab a hotdog and enjoy. This is a holiday unlike any other. Umps will scream “play ball” and fighter jets will buzz stadiums full of elated fans. Gloves will pop. Bats will crack. That singing hotdog guy will annoy us.
In most cities the sun will shine brightly, in others, like Detroit, it will be cold and rainy. But it doesn’t matter. Our long, collective nightmare is over.
Baseball is back.
Mascots will race around the track and we’ll all wait for that first, get-out-of-your-seat moment when we all hold our breath. It’s coming.
On this day, everything is possible and no one is in last place. Everyone can have a career year and there is no yesterday about which to complain.
No more contract speculation or trade talk. No more rankings and previews or roster competitions. Just nine innings of baseball that counts.
Your team’s best pitcher against the other team’s leadoff guy is just hours away, maybe even minutes if you’re reading this late enough in the day.
You’ve made it, congratulations. Another awful, terrible, too long winter with nothing to care about.
But it’s all over now. Seven months of baseball begins today.
I don’t know about you, but for me, it’s about time.
Happy Opening Day, friends. I’ve missed you.
This Could Be The Year
Every year could be the year. Even this one. Especially this one.
That’s what we’re all thinking as the baseball season begins today. During this time of year, there is still a chance for all of us. Tigers, Nationals, Twins, and Rockies fans alike all share in this feeling.
Until proven otherwise, every team could go the distance this year. This could be the year.
It’s an annual tradition that we never fail to observe. I wrote about it last year, right about this time, for the Eastern Echo. I wrote of the hope that comes in Spring, both for those who should be hopeful and for those who have nothing better to do than be hopeful.
It’s a hopeful time of year.
Last year around this time, my entire life was changing. I was graduating, getting married, and moving away to start graduate school 700 miles from the baseball team that anchored me so firmly. It was a hopeful time after a long, arduous winter ahead of a summer of upheaval.
And that hope was rewarded with a great season and run deep into October that made me feel close to home while I was far away.
The view from a year later is much clearer. Much less tumultuous, but no less hopeful. The last year for me has been a good one, but it was also taxing and trying. The stress and anxiety that came with such big changes dampened some of the joy that one might expect to find in a baseball team that comes within four wins of a World Series.
Which makes this Spring, this moment, sweeter. Those changes are behind me and with unclouded eyes, I can embrace the 2013 season and the prospect of a title. It’s almost as if the Tigers were waiting for me. I had to take the next step before they would.
The two aren’t connected, but I’m going to believe that they are because, damn it, this is the time of year when everything makes sense. The sun shines brighter and the prospects of a glorious summer are unrestrained.
This could be the year. For the Tigers. For me. For anything.
I’m a pretty rational and analytical person, a true child of the enlightenment. But sometimes, and this is one of those times, the romantic in me emerges. Things are bigger than us and the world is a magical place full of wonder. Sure we can debate all the reasons something shouldn’t happen, but is there anything better than watching a team who has no business winning a division title pour out onto the field to celebrate that title?
I mean, it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball. We all know that. It overwhelms us sometimes. When Adam Greenberg gets another at bat after getting hit in the head after his first and only prior at bat, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic.
Or when Darrin Downs takes the mound three years after a fractured skull nearly killed him. That’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
When your team sprays champagne and the grumpy old man who managers the team starts crying like a baby and waxing poetic about your city, that’s when it’s hard not to get romantic about baseball.
So I’m getting romantic in anticipation about all of that. About the flyover before Opening Day and the crowd on their feet for the nobody journeyman closing in on a no-hitter. About the kid from a small town about to take the big stage for the first time. About the fathers and sons sharing a game for the first time. About watching your team finally, finally hoisting the trophy.
Right now, at this moment, all of that can happen. It will happen. For some of us at least. My hope for all of you, as it always is, is that your faith will be rewarded.
This could be the year, it really, really could.
The Nine People Who Make Baseball Fun
Now this cannot be thought of as an exhaustive list or a list that perfectly ranks the quality it seeks to. Rather, this is a list of Nine people who make baseball fun, without a particular guarantee about who is left off and who is ahead of who.
However, let’s also think of this list as one that doesn’t include baseball players. This is about people outside of the clubhouses and front offices. In some cases, like in most good stories, they are composite characters. What follows, is The Nine People Who Make Baseball fun.
Because, after all, that’s what baseball is. Fun.
9. Eric Karabell (ESPN Fantasy Writer, former Baseball Today podcast host)
Here’s what I like about Karabell: He’s not reactive and he loves baseball. So many people who follow and cover sports react to everything as if it dramatically reshapes the landscape of the entire sports world. Karabell says not so fast. He doesn’t accept that one bad game or outing changes a season. He makes for good listening and following because he can walk you down off the edge when things are looking bad and keep you from getting your hopes up when things are great. But on the other side of it, he is such a fan. He openly professes to watching his team when they stink and enjoys going to Fall League games and minor league parks, and once confessed to being disappointed during the postseason because he couldn’t watch ten games at once.
8. The Fan Who Isn’t Quite Up to Date
You all know this guy. The one who still sees baseball through the prism of 2008. Like all of the players he thinks are good are getting old and he’s never heard of anyone under 25. He thinks $10 million is a big salary and can’t fathom why anyone would offer a ten year contract. This person makes baseball fun because you can exploit their ignorance for entertainment. Hey guy, who is better, Jason Heyward or Jason Werth?
7. The Person Who Asks Sportswriters Stupid Questions
I’m not talking about people asking Buster Olney if he thinks the Yankees will trade A-Rod. That’s stupid, but it’s not what I mean. People, mostly on Twitter, routinely ask “experts” to answer factually based questions like “Who is starting tonight?” and “What time does the game start?” Have these people mastered Twitter, but have no concept of Google or MLB.com? How is tweeting at a sportswriter the most effective way to gather that information? These people make baseball fun because they are funny in a sad sort of way.
6. Your Mom
Hear me out. Your mom, while she doesn’t know much about baseball, tries to portray herself as someone who knows things about baseball, leading to endless enjoyment. Specifically, moms can never pronounce/remember players’ names. It has something to do with them only have a little spare time in which to pay attention and their lack of interest in most cases. This is not a comment about women in general or middle-aged women, this is about the stereotypical mom. Below are actual names my mother calls players:
Placido Polanco: “Poblano.” This is a type of chili pepper.
Rick Porcello: “Portabello.” Notice, this isn’t just here replacing a food name for a player name, this is a hybrid of the two.
Al Alburquerque: “New Mexico.”
5. Vin Scully (Dodgers Announcer)
Scully’s pipes are incredible and he’s been working the same glamorous gig for more than a half century. Hiss soothing voice and mix of baseball acumen and catalog of great stories makes him the best announcer who doesn’t work for your team. I love Mario and Rod, but Scully is the best of the best when I take my blinders off. I can’t tell you how often, after a Tigers game ends, I flip on the Dodgers feed to listen to Scully call a Clayton Kershaw start. He’s baseball’s answer to easy listening.
4. The Nine Year Old Kid in All of Us
This is a tweet from WSJ’s Jason Gay, who sums it up nicely:
The kid in all of us makes baseball fun because they enjoy the game with such incredible optimism that can’t be match today, despite my optimistic leanings. I mean seriously, tell nine year old Neil the Tigers are terrible and can’t play worth a damn and he’ll tell you a million reasons why baseball is awesome and he can’t wait to go watch and play. (Full Disclosure: After writing that sentence, it’s entirely possible I am still nine years old. But most of you aren’t.)
3. Brian Kenny and Harold Reynolds (MLB Network)
Brian Kenny is MLB Network’s sabermetric mouthpiece and Reynolds is as old school as they come, once saying that the Triple Crown “is the [MVP] trump card.” Kenny draws on analytic thinking and research while Reynolds goes with his gut. If you know something about this site, you might think I’d prefer Kenny (and I do), but they are awesome together. Really awesome. Reynolds has great charisma and knows how to push Kenny’s buttons. At one point during an MLB Tonight episode last season, I literally rolled on the floor (read: couch) laughing at this exchange.
(Slight paraphrase)
HR: (jokes about Kenny’s use of The Shredder to analyze players)
Kenny: I’ll shred you!
HR: Yeah, yeah whatever, real baseball people don’t care about that stuff.
Kenny: They do, come to the SABR conference with me and see managers and GMs there.
HR: Do you wear your Star Wars costume to the convention?
This would be funnier if I had a clip, but trust me, it was hilarious.
2. The Person Who Runs @CantPredictBall
This and its counterpart @CanPredictBall are must follows on Twitter for their awesome and poignant baseball commentary. The premise for the account is that they post things that happen in baseball that are uncommon and strange. What’s even better is their awareness of strangeness which allows them to almost parody themselves by tweeting about things that are unpredictable in a predictable way. Here is an example of their standard tweeting:
And here is that self-awareness (from the World Series this year):
CanPredictBall does the same thing from the opposite perspective. Awesome stuff.
1. Jeff Sullivan (Fangraphs)
A few weeks ago, Sullivan retired from the Mariners blog Lookout Landing, which he created about ten years ago in favor of spending more time working for Fangraphs and working on other things. At that time, I posted his final column and remarked that if I had been born in the American northwest, I would have liked to have been Jeff Sullivan. He is quite simply, the best. The voice he achieves in his writing is among the best I’ve ever read (not just among sportswriters) and he picks up on the best things about baseball. He writes a lot of posts on pitch framing and pace and weird things that happen like Jesus Montero throwing out Mike Trout attempting to steal. If I write anymore, I think my wife will get jealous, but sufficed to say, Sullivan makes baseball fun.
Who makes baseball fun for you? Can your mom pronounce baseball names?
Crazy Predictions for 2013
Yesterday, we published a post regarding bold predictions for the upcoming baseball season. In this post, we made predictions based on little, but that were at least somewhat reasonable. This post will go a step further.
Here are ten crazy predictions for 2013. Think of these as the bold predictions that were left on the cutting room floor.
1. A fan of the Miami Marlins will conduct a protest so dynamic that it will make national, non-baseball news. Jeff Loria will celebrate by kidnapping his dog.
2. During Hall of Fame weekend, in which no one will be inducted, a member of the BBWAA will be arrested under suspicion of committing a crime and will be convicted based on shaky evidence. He will not get the irony.
3. Ben Zobrist will become the first baseball player to ever play two positions simultaneously when he plays both 2B and RF at the same time, allowing Joe Maddon to invent a new position called “superfield.” Ben Zobrist will also play that.
4. Ryan Raburn will hit 20 HR. They will all come against the Tigers.
5. Mariners fans will finally just decide that reality is subjective and start to accept the results of Dave Cameron’s MLB The Show season as “how the season is going.”
6. Jason Heyward will have a slump during June. Later in the season, he will attribute it to the fact that his last name isn’t Upton and he felt left out.
7. The All-Star Game will end in a tie. Selig will suggest awarding home-field advantage to the team whose fans send him the most letters.
8. Justin Verlander, desperate for his first career hit, will enter the batter’s box in Prince Fielder’s lucky pants. He will lace a single to right, but will fall down running to first, allowing the outfielder to throw him out.
9. Cubs fans will arrange an elaborate ruse in which they pretend as if they won the 1994 World Series. Eventually, the will start to believe it.
10. The Pirates will win more than half of their games.
Justin Verlander Had a Big Day
Well folks, what we’ve all been expecting to happened has finally happened. Justin Verlander will be a Tiger (essentially) for life. Today he (effectively) signed the largest contract ever for a pitcher, coming in at a cool 7 years and $180 million with a vesting option for 2020 worth $22 million, for a potential total of $202 million, surpassing Felix Hernandez’s 7 year, $175 million deal from earlier this offseason.
After the Felix deal, I discussed what I thought Verlander was worth and guessed at what he would earn. I figured 8 years and $210 million if he signed this early, but it now looks like the Tigers effectively signed a seven year deal with an option for an eighth given that he is already under contract for 2013-2014. We can debate about whether or not that is a fair comparison, but let’s just think about the deal.
The Tigers now have Verlander through age 36 (37 with the option) and will pay him close to $26 million a season on average. Given the current going rate for a win above replacement (WAR), Verlander needs to be worth around 5 WAR per season on average to earn his keep, but that’s before we adjust for contract inflation which will likely mean he will need to average somewhere around 4.5 WAR per season for the rest of his career.
For now, that should be pretty easy given that he’s been averaging 6 WAR or better for the last four seasons, but we should expect some regression as he ages near the end of the deal. So long as he stays healthy and ages relatively well, the Tigers won’t regret this from a purely baseball perspective.
But it’s more than that. On the field, he’ll probably earn this deal or close to it given his skill level and durability, but he’s also worth a lot to the Tigers as a brand. If you go to Comerica Park, you’ll see more Verlander gear on fans than any other player. He’s the face of the franchise and a huge moneymaker in the pro shop. Plus he’s such a big supporter of the city and fan base as a whole.
I haven’t thought about this enough to be sure, but I’m not sure there is a more beloved athlete by his home fans than Verlander in sports right now. Maybe Tom Brady. Maybe Derek Jeter. But it’s a short list of contenders for a few key reasons. First, Verlander is homegrown. He’s only ever played for the Tigers. Second, he has absolutely no off-field problems like Kobe Bryant or Miguel Cabrera. Third, he embraces the relationship. Fourth, he is really good at baseball.
So I love this deal. It’s a fair price for the Tigers and Verlander gets to become the richest pitcher in the game until Kershaw signs his extension. But I love it because it means Justin Verlander, likely the greatest Tiger of my lifetime thus far, will be a Tiger for his entire career. He will go into Cooperstown having played for only one team. That’s rare today and it demonstrates a level of loyalty that is important to me.
I love athletes who are loyal to their team. Verlander has now locked in that status for life. The Dodgers or Yankees might have offered him more after 2014, but the Tigers offered him enough now, so he took it. He’ll spend the rest of his playing days trying to bring titles to the city that he loves, and more importantly the city that adores him.
If you’re not a Tigers fan, you might not have a good understanding. When Verlander is on the mound, Detroit (and Michigan) stop. When people say, “When’s he pitching next?” you don’t have to ask who they mean.
When he throws a gem, the standing ovation is on another level. We love Justin Verlander in a way that we can’t love most athletes anymore. Either their bad people in the private lives or they jump ship for more money or more glamour. Justin Verlander is neither. They don’t build statues for people who leave town for more money and they can start building his statue now.
He’s the real deal. If he blows out his elbow in two years, I won’t look back on this deal as a mistake. At this moment in time, he is worth it. He’s more worth it than any other pitcher in the game and he means more to Detroit than he ever would to anyone else.
Justin Verlander will be a Tiger for life. He will, for now, be the richest pitcher on the planet. Opening Day is in three days and his first home start should be eight days from now. I promise you, when he leads the team onto the field with “Til I Collapse” playing on the stadium speakers, Comerica Park could cave in.
Detroit has always loved Justin Verlander. Now we know he loves us too.
Editor’s Note: This was perhaps not even the coolest thing JV did today. See below.
Fangraphs and Baseball Reference Unify Replacement Level
Today, Fangraphs and Baseball Reference consummated a relationship we knew to be coming for the last few weeks. While the two sites have always calculated Wins Above Replacement (WAR) differently, they decided to discuss reworking a component of the metric. That component was replacement level, defined as the production of a player who is readily available as a minor league free agent or on the waiver wire.
Today it happened. Dave Cameron can give you all the specifics over at Fangraphs, and I can’t say I disagree with any of the changes. I like that the two leading sites are working to improve WAR and our overall statistical evaluation of baseball. This is a step in the right direction and it’s good for everyone involved.
But there is a weird result from today’s unveiling of the new replacement level that is freaking me the hell out.
Everyone’s WAR is slightly different than it was yesterday.
Now many who hate sabermetrics might use this as a point of assault, but those people who know better know that it’s just a shifting baseline calculation that marginally changes the precise point value of WAR. The substantive results are the same, just refined.
But for someone who reviews baseball statistics quite religiously, it’s trippy. For example, Justin Verlander gained 0.2 WAR for 2012. Buster Posey lost 0.4 WAR. Most of the exact changes are pretty small and don’t change the interpretation much, but when we’re dealing with something like WAR that is imprecise and on a relatively small scale, things get funky. A bunch of players shifted places in rankings. Not dramatically, mind you, just from 2nd to 3rd or 8th to 7th. It’s minor and doesn’t mean much, it’s just weird.
I woke up today and the past had changed. I mean, I know that isn’t true, but it seems like it. Justin Verlander was the best pitcher by WAR last season, but now he is the best by more. Perhaps this means nothing to anyone else, but it was interesting for me.
WAR got better today and given the people in charge of its design, it will continue to get better into the future. Let’s just hope I’m better prepared to cope next time and don’t spend an hour of my day staring at my computer repeating “this is weird” to myself.
But seriously, it was.
New English D 