The Homer Bailey (Morning) Edition (July 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Homer Bailey pitches his second career no-hitter, first in MLB this season, against the Giants
- Bailey walked 1 and struck out 9 across 109 pitches
- Bailey is now 11th among pitchers in WAR at 2.9, has a 3.57 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.97 xFIP in 111 IP
- He is getting more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more groundballs than last year
- He did it basically with a fastball and slider, with a handful of changeups and curves mixed in
- He Verlander’d them, throwing harder as the game went on
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey Day! (7p Eastern)
- Felix faces Holland in Texas (8p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to the big A (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did anything else interesting happen that didn’t make the cut in the headlines section?
Lackey was pretty good, some other stuff happened. First no-hitter in New English D history. Exciting stuff!
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (July 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez (coming of the DL July 6th)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s get the minor changes out of the way first. Stephen Strasburg is back on the list because he’s off the DL and I’ve decided to let Anibal Sanchez slide because he is schedule to come off the DL when his turn comes up in the rotation this weekend. Clay Buchholz gets the DL treatment, so he’s off the list for the time being because you can’t watch a guy who doesn’t pitch.
Doug Fister moves from the borderline italics section to the permanent list because he’s really good and Chris Sale gets a first even jump for not listed to regular type with his fantastic month of June. Jon Lester has really stumbled since his strong April so he’s off the list until he gets himself back on track, and Matt Moore, whom I really wanted to be great this year, is walking too many batters to be considered must watch. The strikeouts and run prevention is good, but if he doesn’t get his control in line he’ll regress a good deal.
Finally, the list gets three new names in the italics section. Mat Latos and Derek Holland have pitched too well to ignore even if I haven’t personally enjoyed their starts as much as their teams have. Both guys are on notice as I haven’t really fallen in love with their outings, but they’ve earned mention. Finally, Jose Fernandez has been lights out this season and after last night’s gem, he’s earned your attention. The Marlins have two players worth watching! I’m crossing my fingers for Jacob Turner.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
The Morning Edition (July 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harper homers in his return from the DL, Nats beat the Crew
- Fernandez goes 8 scoreless with 10 K to lead the Marlins over the Friars
- Matt Moore strikes out many Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber looks to bounce back (8p Eastern)
- Price returns from the DL to face the Astros (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw battles Oswalt at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What about the young pitchers?
So much attention is paid to the Trout, Harper, Machado…Puig(?) talk, but the game’s young starters are having some fun too. Obviously Harvey is getting the bulk of the attention because he’s ripping off a Cy Young season, but Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are now 17th and 18th in park adjusted FIP- in all of baseball and both have ERA’s below 3.00. These guys are having great seasons, and that doesn’t even include Patrick Corbin, all the way down at 21st.
The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
The Morning Edition (June 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Indians beat the Sox 19-10 in game one of a DH, Casper Wells (the OF!) is the only Sox arm not to allow a hit
- Harvey goes 7, gives up 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K…doesn’t get a win and the Mets lose
- Teheran K’s 10 Dbacks, Braves win 3-0
- CC dominates early, but the Orioles get to him late to win 4-3
- The Pirates big inning backs Cole’s victory
- Miller gets chased early in Oakland
- Cuddyer takes the hit streak to 25
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright duels Parker in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Turner welcomes the Friars to Miami (7p Eastern)
- Liriano tries to keep up his ’06 impression (7p Eastern)
- Lee and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is it time to track Cuddyer?
On an eventful Friday, three things stood out most. First, the Indians and White Sox played an insane game that featured former Tigers outfielder throwing a scoreless inning. Second, Matt Harvey threw another brilliant gem that his team coughed up. Third, Michael Cuddyer has now crossed the 25 game mark on his hit streak. I usually take notice around 20 and lock in past 25. I’m in love with hit streak chases because DiMaggio’s 56 game streak is the the single most impressive record in professional sports and any attempt to get near it is so impressive. Cuddyer only needs three more hits to be halfway. Wow.
The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
- Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
- Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
- Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
- Garza dominates the Brewers
- Kluber gets shelled
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
- James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
- Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this finally the year for the Pirates?
As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.
Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).
57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)
Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS
51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)
Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS
49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)
Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS
19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)
Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS
18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH
11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)
All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH
8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT
7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH
6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT
5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS
4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:
I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS
3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)
Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT
2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:
Not bad. HIT
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
- Kazmir dominates the Twins
- Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
- Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
- Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
- Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
- Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?
As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:
But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
New English D 