Tag Archives: indians

The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
  • Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
  • Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
  • Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
  • Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
  • Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
  • Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
  • Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
  • Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
  • Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
  • Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
  • The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Will Chris Sale have another great outing?

I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.

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I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.

The Morning Edition (June 29, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Indians beat the Sox 19-10 in game one of a DH, Casper Wells (the OF!) is the only Sox arm not to allow a hit
  • Harvey goes 7, gives up 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K…doesn’t get a win and the Mets lose
  • Teheran K’s 10 Dbacks, Braves win 3-0
  • CC dominates early, but the Orioles get to him late to win 4-3
  • The Pirates big inning backs Cole’s victory
  • Miller gets chased early in Oakland
  • Cuddyer takes the hit streak to 25

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Wainwright duels Parker in Oakland (4p Eastern)
  • Turner welcomes the Friars to Miami (7p Eastern)
  • Liriano tries to keep up his ’06 impression (7p Eastern)
  • Lee and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is it time to track Cuddyer?

On an eventful Friday, three things stood out most. First, the Indians and White Sox played an insane game that featured former Tigers outfielder throwing a scoreless inning. Second, Matt Harvey threw another brilliant gem that his team coughed up. Third, Michael Cuddyer has now crossed the 25 game mark on his hit streak. I usually take notice around 20 and lock in past 25. I’m in love with hit streak chases because DiMaggio’s 56 game streak is the the single most impressive record in professional sports and any attempt to get near it is so impressive. Cuddyer only needs three more hits to be halfway. Wow.

The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
  • Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
  • Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
  • Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
  • Garza dominates the Brewers
  • Kluber gets shelled

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
  • Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
  • James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
  • Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
  • Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Is this finally the year for the Pirates?

As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.

The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
  • Gordon walks off on the Braves
  • Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
  • Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
  • Lackey dominates the Rockies
  • Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
  • AJ Griffin CGSO
  • Dickey CGSO

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
  • NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?

We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.

Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.

Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.

Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.

Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).

57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)

Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS

51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)

Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS

49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)

Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS

19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)

Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS

18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)

McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH

11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)

All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH

9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)

Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)

Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT

7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH

6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT

5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)

Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS

4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)

Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:

pic1

I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS

3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)

Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT

2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)

Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT

1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)

Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:

pic2

Not bad. HIT

Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.

The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
  • Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
  • Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
  • Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
  • Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
  • Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
  • Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
  • James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
  • Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
  • Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
  • Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How long until we stop idolizing closers?

I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:

  1. Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
  2. High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
  3. High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
  4. Right Handed Specialist
  5. Left Handed Specialist
  6. Long Reliever
  7. Long Reliever

I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.

The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)

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From Last Night:

  • The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
  • Kazmir dominates the Twins
  • Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
  • Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
  • Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
  • NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
  • Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?

As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:

But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.

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The Morning Edition (June 18, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Johnson and De La Rosa both go 7 scoreless, but the Jays score late to win
  • The Nats tie it in the 9th, but Brown walks off for the Phils
  • The Royals get 2 late runs to beat the Indians 2-1
  • 5 good innings for Miller, who leaves with an injury

What I’m Watching Today:

  • The Matt Harveys come to ATL (1p Eastern)
  • Cliff Lee faces the Nationals (7p Eastern)
  • Zack Wheeler makes him MLB debut in game two of a DH (7p Eastern)
  • Parker and Darvish in Arlington (8p Eastern)
  • Sharky and Wainwright in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
  • Bonderman! (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Can the Mets make tomorrow Groundhog Day?

It’s been a tough season for Mets fans, but they should have fun tomorrow. They have ace and Cy Young contender Matt Harvey opening the day, but top prospect Zack Wheeler will make his debut in the night cap. Harvey has already showed himself to be a star, but if Wheeler can be as good as advertised, this could be quite the 1-2 punch for the next 6 seasons. I bet the Giants wish they still had him. Wheeler’s strikeout rate in the minor leagues has been great, but he’ll need to dampen the walks a bit to succeed in the big leagues. Luckily for him, he gets the strikeout prone Braves in his debut.

The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
  • Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
  • Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
  • Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
  • The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks

  • 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
  • Astros sweep the White Sox
  • Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
  • Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
  • Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
  • Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What should we think of the Padres?

I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.

The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
  • Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
  • Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
  • Freeman walks off on the Giants
  • The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
  • Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
  • Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
  • CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
  • Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
  • Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup? 

So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…