The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013
As we do every week here at STT, we present lists of things ordered by the nines and on this Saturday, it’s a list of The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013.
On this list, you’ll find a couple of center fielders have gone missing as they no longer play the position. If you’re looking for Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, for example, try the left field list. Beyond that, I found this list to be a bit convoluted and had a difficult time doing the rankings. A lot of players are left off who could easily be in the 7-9 range and lots of players who are on the list could easily end up somewhere else on the board.
Apologies to: Justin Ruggiano, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury.
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jones hits for power and average and has decent speed, but his plate discipline is suspect. He’s also less than stellar on defense according to the metrics, but coaches seem to like him as they gave him a gold glove last year over the great Mike Trout. He’s a good player, but he’s not a complete player.
8. John Jay (Cardinals)
You could probably attack this choice more any other because Jay doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t have one eye popping skill. But Jay hits for average, runs the bases pretty well, and plays solid defense. It’s more of gut feeling here than anything, but I like Jay to break out this year. Entering his prime years on a great team, I’m buying.
7. B.J. Upton (Braves)
Upton will play between his brother and Jason Heyward on a good all-around team. He’s a solid defender who hits for power and runs well to mix with a good approach at the plate. He has a swing and miss problem and a lowish batting average, but he’s a good bet for 3 to 5 WAR.
6. Peter Bourjos (Angels)
The speedy, defensive star put up a 4.5 WAR season when he got a full season as a starter in 2011 and has two 2+WAR season in a backup role in 2010 and 2012. He doesn’t light up a lot of the traditional stats, but he plays amazing defense and runs as well as anyone. He’s worth the price of admission on defense alone and could easily be a top five centerfielder if he has a moderately good offensive year.
5. Denard Span (Nationals)
Span is a great defender who doesn’t strikeout much and gets on base better than average for a centerfielder and runs well. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be great at the top of the Nationals lineup and between Werth and Harper. With his concussion history hopefully behind him, he should be in for a big year.
4. Michael Bourn (Indians)
Bourn may be aging, but he’s coming off four very good seasons and is a top tier defensive player. He’s a top flight runner and gets on base well. Four years from now, the Indians might not want to pay him $12 million a season, but for 2013, he’s still one of the very best centerfielders money can buy.
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
Kemp’s 2011 season was one for the ages and his 2012 started off on the same pace but was cut down by injuries. That’s the only reason Kemp isn’t #1 on this list. I’m just not sure he’ll play a full season. His defense could use some work, but on offense, a healthy Kemp is as good as they come. If he was coming off a less serious set of injuries I would be more likely to brush them off, but I’m doubtful Kemp can play 150 games for a team with big expectations in 2013.
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
McCutchen is one of baseball’s best players. He mixes speed, power, and plate discipline and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012. He has four very good seasons under his belt and is only held back by averageish defense. There is some debate about his skills in center, but all in all there isn’t much bad to say about the Pirates’ star.
1. Austin Jackson (Tigers)
Now before I’m accused of bias in favor of my favorite team, go back and look at Jackson’s 2012 season. He was better than Bourn in every major category excepts steals and defense, but he also missed 25 games with an injury. He cut down on his strikeouts, walked more, and hit for more power. He’s a great defender and is a year younger than McCutchen. Despite missing time with an injury that has completely healed, Jackson was third in centerfield WAR among players who still play the position and less than 2 WAR behind McCutchen. I’m buying another step forward for Jackson in 2013 toward something like a 6-6.5 WAR player and modest regression by McCutchen. This isn’t to say Cutch is in decline, but rather that 2012 was simply his career year. It will be hard to reproduce that peak, so Jackson might catch him in 2013. This might be a bit bold, but I’ll stick to it. Jackson is my pick for the best centerfielder in baseball for 2013.
Sound off in the comments and online about the merits of this list. Should you want your money back because it was terrible, try to remember this site is free, unlike ESPN Insider, which charges you to read mostly terrible commentary.
A Brief Note of Warning to Cleveland Outfielders
Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com wrote a piece recently wondering if any AL Central team could challenge the Tigers for the division title and specifically referenced the Indians acquisition of Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs this offseason, which provides them with a great deal of speed. But the Tigers’ returning DH and former catcher has a word of warning for the base swiping inclined Indians outfielders.
“They gotta do better than Michael Bourn,” said a smiling Victor Martinez, before gesturing toward catcher Alex Avila. “We’ve got some policemen who give tickets to people who go from first to second!”
It’s a wonderful note of support from V-Mart about Avila, but is it accurate? We know catcher defense is the most difficult defense to measure and clunky things like fielding percentage and caught stealing percentage just don’t do it.
The best we have so far is Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). If we accept DRS as the best we can do without detailed scouting reports, how does Avila stack up?
In 2012, he was tied for fourth best in baseball with 6 DRS at catcher trailing Ryan Hanigan (7), Salvador Perez (9 in 653 innings), and Yadier Molina (16).
So, don’t trying anything Indians or you’ll have to deal with this.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 30-21
Spring Training begins this week in Florida and Arizona as all thirty MLB teams do their best to prepare themselves for another season. That preparation will be critical to their respective successes and failures, but before anyone gets hurt or anyone has a breakout season, this is how SABR Toothed Tigers thinks the league stacks up.
30. Houston Astros
There isn’t a whole lot to say about the Astros other than that they are a very bad team. The new front office has worked well over the last year to restock the farm system and get them on a path to rebuilding but that has come at the expense of the clubs won-loss record for 2013. The Opening Day payroll will be south of $30 million and the Astros could easily lose another 100 games. The future looks much better for the Astros, but the now is just terrible.
29. Miami Marlins
Entering the 2012 season the Marlins had a new stadium and a revamped club. The ownership committed to higher payrolls and more competitive clubs, but after a rocky start to the season, the Marlins began selling off pieces and completed the process with a full on fire sale in the offseason. Almost nothing remains. The Marlins ownership didn’t like the less than stellar attendance and they decided they weren’t going to pay for a team that didn’t sell tickets. The 2013 Marlins are Giancarlo Stanton and players who are either too young to make any money or two broken to get other offers.
28. Colorado Rockies
Last season was a disaster for the Rockies. They lost Tulowitzki for most of the season and their pitching staff was terrible. A healthy Tulo will help the team and the offense should be okay, but the pitching staff isn’t much of anything. They didn’t do anything to improve the club during the offseason and the return of Tulowitzki can only do so much. With other teams in the NL West adding to their arsenals, the Rockies won’t find room to improve.
27. Minnesota Twins
The Twins pursued two offseason strategies this winter. First, they traded all of their centerfielders. Span to the Nationals and Revere to the Phillies. Second, they signed every pitcher they could find that is coming off an injury hoping for the best. On the face of it, those moves won’t do much for the 2013 team, which could easily lose 95 or more games, but these moves have helped stock an already interesting farm system. The Twins are a couple years away from getting back into things, but they have enough pieces that we shouldn’t expect them to be terrible in an unwatchable sort of way.
26. Cleveland Indians
The Tribe added Nick Swisher and others in free agency and picked up Drew Stubbs and Trevor Bauer via trade during the offseason to plug up holes in their team, but their main issue is starting pitching and they didn’t do enough to turn themselves into contenders. The Indians have some exciting young position players, but when you’re counting on Swisher to be your top offensive player you’re probably too short on offense and when Justin Masterson is your ace, you’re definitely short on pitching. Editors Note: This ranking was determined as of Saturday Feb. 9th, prior to the beginning of Spring Training. The signing of Michael Bourn is not reflected here.
25. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are moving in the right direction with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer now at the helm and I like their starting pitching for 2013 and beyond. The offense isn’t much to look at and the bullpen isn’t really anything. If you’re hoping for an end to the curse, you should probably shift your hopes until next season.
24. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have Felix Hernandez and a lot of young starting pitching coming, but 2013 won’t be their year. They tried to improve their lineup with a bunch of broken pieces, but it’s going to be a rough offensive season even with shorter fences at Safeco. This is a team that can prevent runs but not one that can score them.
23. Kansas City Royals
The Royals place on this list might seem low, but there are still a lot of problems with this team despite adding James Shields. They probably added a few wins with pitching upgrades, but the offense didn’t improve much other than counting on bounce back seasons. The Royals will probably have more wins than other teams ahead of them on this list, but that will be a function of playing two teams on this list ranked 26th or lower 19 times each. The Royals probably won’t be embarrassing, but I don’t think they’ll be good either.
22. San Diego Padres
The Padres have some good young players in their system and the fences are coming in at Petco Park, but they didn’t do much to improve their team. In a tough division, it’s hard to see them being much better than they were in 2012 especially with their starting catcher spending 50 games on suspension for PED use.
21. Pittsburgh Pirates
In my 2012 Season in Review series I told you I thought the Pirates would finally break the under .500 curse and turn into a winning team for the first time in two decades, but I’ve been talking myself out of it ever since. I think they might still win over 81 games this year, but I think that will be a function of luck and timing rather than true talent. I think the Pirates are the 21st best MLB team, but they might still finish with a record above average.
Come back tomorrow and Thursday for 2013 Preseason Power Rankings 20-11 and 10-1.ets.
2012 Season in Review: American League Central
The AL Central produced the MVP, pennant winner, and Cy Young runner up in 2012, but other than that, it wasn’t the most exciting year for baseball’s most made fun of division. Sure the Tigers boast a lot of stars and Phil Humber threw a perfect game, but that didn’t earn them a lot of respect.
Here’s how the final standings shook out:
And this is how it played out over time:
Followed by my 2013 projections:
And a final look at my 2012 grades:
AL Central MVP: Miguel Cabrera
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander
2012 Season in Review: Cleveland Indians
68-94, 4th in the AL Central
After a better than expected 2011, the Indians fell back to Earth and struggled to avoid the cellar of one of baseball’s worst divisions. They’re making improvements this winter, but they’re still struggling to forget the last year at Progressive Field.
The 2012 Indians features a really nice group of complimentary players on offense, but they had no one to compliment. The star power was missing. Carlos Santana (3.4 WAR), Jason Kipnis (3.1), Asdrubal Cabrera (2.9), Michael Brantley (2.7), and Shin Soo Choo (2.6) all had good seasons, but five solid players isn’t usually enough to make noise. No one else was worth even 1.0 WAR in 2012.
Justin Masterson (2.3) regressed in 2012, which wouldn’t be such a big deal if he wasn’t the Indians’ best pitcher. No one else hit 2.0 WAR. Only Zach McAllister and Vinnie Pestano even topped 1.0 WAR. The pitching was just bad.
But the club had made some moves this winter to change that. They added Nick Swisher on a 4/56 deal and traded the last year of Choo for Trevor Bauer plus others. They signed Brett Myers (who is a solid pitcher when he isn’t committing crimes) and Mark Reynolds to one year deals.
The Indians made good moves this winter, but they only added complimentary pieces. The team is still short on star power. I like what they can do in the back half of the lineup, but they just don’t have the firepower to match the Tigers in the top half. And they definitely don’t have the pitching.
It’s hard to imagine the Tribe contending in 2013 with the roster looking the way it does, but I do think they are one of those teams who are just good enough that if they have Baltimore style luck, they have a shot to at least make it interesting.
2012 Grade: F
Early 2013 Projection: 72-90
Indians Get Swisher, Laugh Like Mr. Burns
Nick Swisher is underrated and Nick Swisher is now a Cleveland Indian. He’ll likely replace Shin Shoo Choo in right field, but can play left, first base, or DH over the course of his four year, $56 million deal (vesting option could take it to 5/70).
Most people figured Josh Hamilton would get more than Swisher on the free agent market, and we now know they are right. Hamilton got 5/125, which is more than 4/56. But that’s because Hamilton is overvalued and Swisher is undervalued. This is a great deal for the Indians. A great one.
Swisher is a young 32 and this deal will cover his age 32-35. Those are past his peak years, but not way into Alex Rodriguez territory. Swisher played his first full season in 2005 and was a full time player from 2006-2012. Over the last seven seasons, Swisher has never played fewer than 148 games. He’s never hit fewer than 22 homeruns. He’s had a walk rate under 12.3% once. He’s had an OBP under .355 once. He’s been an above average hitter and an average or better defender.
He’s been worth less than 3.0 WAR once in that span. All of these “onces” came during his worst season in 2008 where he was still an okay player.
Even if you figure he’ll decline into this thirties, he’s been a model player. Consistent power and patience mixed with solid defense. You can write him down for a 3 win season. He’s getting paid to be worth 2-3 wins over the next four season each, so if there is no salary inflation, he should be worth it. But there will be inflation, so he’s a steal.
Also, at $14 million a season, the risk isn’t so high that he’ll fall off the table and drag the team with him because he doesn’t have that $25 million price tag of Hamilton.
Swisher is essentially provides consistent, reliable production at the level that Hamilton averages out to. He’s a 3-4 win player with power. That’s what Hamilton is, but Hamilton has the amazing ceiling and flashes of brilliance mixed with the terrible lows.
With no inflation, Swisher needs to accumulate 11-12 wins to earn his deal. Hamilton needs to accumulate 25 wins. I’d much rather take the Swisher contract with a lower ceiling than the Hamilton contract with the bottomless-pit-like floor.
The Indians are a small market club and have a lot of work to do to build a winner. But in the weak AL Central, contention is probably not too far off. They have a solid young infield and catcher and an outfield that is serviceable. One more good bat and some rotation upgrades could get the Tribe near the top. Swisher is a good step in the right direction.
It will take some luck for the Indians to play with the Tigers in 2013, but anything can happen. Nick Swisher is a reliable player at a good price and he’s a fun loving guy who went to school at Ohio State. He seems like a natural fit for the Indians. He’d have a been a great fit for a lot of teams. It’s a little surprising a bigger market club didn’t offer more money, but fans in northeast Ohio will be glad they didn’t.
Grade: A
Reds Go For Choo, Get at Least Half of What They Need
After a few big trades this offseason, the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks felt left out and got involved in one of their own last night.
The three team deal sends SS Didi Gregorius, LHP Tony Sipp, and 1B Lars Anderson to Arizona, OF Drew Stubbs, RHP Trevor Bauer, RHP Matt Albers, and RHP Bryan Shaw to Cleveland, and OF Shin-Soo Choo and INF Jason Donald to the Reds.
The Reds needed a leadoff man and a centerfielder. They definitely got the leadoff man. Choo’s on base skills are top flight, but his ability to play centerfield is in question. If he can handle it, the Reds come out pretty well in the deal. They’re a team on the brink of a title and a few more marginal wins could easily be the difference and they made this addition without losing anyone from the big league roster.
The Diamondbacks needed a shortstop and a left handed reliever, and they got them. But they gave up an awful lot in terms of prospect value for an equally unproven return. Giving up on Bauer after a year and a half seems like a foolish move given that they made him the #3 pick two summers ago. They have young pitching depth, but this doesn’t seem like the upgrade they needed.
The Indians made out very well in this deal as they gave up one season of Choo, a utility infielder, and a respectable reliever for some really solid prospects and a useful OF. They weren’t ready to contend in 2013 so they traded Choo for a nice bundle of future talent. Hard not to like it.
The deal makes tons of sense for the tribe and little sense for Arizona. The Reds are the wild card. Choo is exactly what they need on offense and a very big question mark on defense. How Choo plays in centerfield at Great American Ballpark will determine how this trade is ultimately viewed.
Grade (Indians): A-, Grade (Diamondbacks): C-, Grade (Reds):B
Grady Sizemore and What Could Have Been
It wasn’t that long ago that Grady Sizemore was a premier player. Really it wasn’t. Just four years ago he was worth 7.4 wins above replacement. Over a four year stretch from 2005-2008, Sizemore was a bona fide star on his way to a great career.
But brilliance can be fleeting for athletes and Sizemore ran into injury after injury. He’s played 212 games since and hasn’t hit above .250. He was a great player on the brink and then everything was gone.
He’s hurt again and his 2013 season will be on hold for a while. The 30 year old outfielder could have been one of the game’s top players, but instead may never play another meaningful game. That’s how quickly things can turn.
Take a look at his Fangraphs dashboard:
Four straight seasons of 157+ games, 20+HR, 20+SB, awesome walk rates, high average, and good power. He played solid to great defense and did so at a premium position on the field. Grady Sizemore was awesome.
And then Grady Sizemore was nothing. Only Albert Pujols had a higher positions player WAR in 2006. Pujols. That was it. From 2005-2008, Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Chase Utley were the only players to post higher WARs.
He was awesome to watch too. I didn’t really like doing it because he played against my favorite team, but he was spectacular. Power, speed, and highlight reel plays. Sizemore did it all and then he did nothing.
It’s a somber reminder for us that players who look invincible can vanish very quickly. Teams are backing up the money truck to free agents right now and one of them could be the next Sizemore. Cut down in his prime by a body that’s failing him.
So while he’ll work hard to get back and other players make the big dollars he was destined for, take a look at those stat lines again and think about Grady Sizemore and what could have been.
New English D 