The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
- Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
- Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
- Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
- Darvish beats Latos
- The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
- Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
- Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
- Sox walk off on the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a realistic season for Puig?
The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.
The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
The Morning Edition (June 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Holland pitches a 2 hit shutout against the Yanks
- Boston unloads on the Jays, hang on to win 7-4
- Byrd’s 8th inning HR lifts the Mets
- Strasburg and Corbin pitch well, but an 11th inning hit from Gregorious beats the Nats
- Garza dominates the Brewers
- Kluber gets shelled
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cole looks to keep the Pirates hot (7p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey faces the Nationals, strikeouts in the forecast (7p Eastern)
- James Shields attempts to further discredit “wins” as a statistics (8p Eastern)
- Miller heads to Oakland to matchup with Colon (10p Eastern)
- Iwakuma welcomes the Cubs to Safeco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this finally the year for the Pirates?
As I write this, the Pirates are tied for the best record in baseball and could play pretty terrible baseball the rest of the way and still finish above .500. They’ve had great first halves the last two seasons and faded during the dog days, but they probably have what it takes to hang in this. On this day last season, they were 39-35, this year they are 48-30. That’s a lot better. But the offense is 19th in baseball in wRC+ and the starting pitching is 20th in WAR with the bullpen at 19th. They have the 5th best defense by UZR, which helps suppress the ERA and win games. I’m not sure I’m buying them as a playoff team just yet, but I’m pretty confident they are good enough not to lose more than half their games.
The Morning Edition (June 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Marcum goes 8 scoreless to beat the Sox
- Gordon walks off on the Braves
- Kazmir flirts with a no-hitter, but it took a Johnson blown save to win it
- Zimmermann leads the Nats over the Dbacks
- Lackey dominates the Rockies
- Felix strikes out 11, gives up 2 ER, somehow doesn’t win…
- AJ Griffin CGSO
- Dickey CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Corbin and Strasburg in DC (4p Eastern)
- NERD favorite Kluber in Baltimore (7p Eastern)
- Greinke faces the Phillies, hopes not to get in a fight (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Didn’t 2B used to be a glove first position?
We live in a world in which Robinson Cano is 5th among 2B in WAR this season. Carpenter and Kipnis are taking the league by storm and Pedroia and Kendrick are ahead of him too. Cano is 7th among qualifiers in wRC+ for 2B. When did this happen? I remember just a couple seasons back you had like two second basemen who could hit and everyone else was Ramon Santiago. The game is changing, it’s pretty cool. Here’s Dave Cameron writing on a similar subject a little ways back.
The Morning Edition (June 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Blue Jays finally lost after winning 11 straight
- There were four games, you don’t need me for this. Here are all the scores and boxes.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish versus Kuroda at Yankees Stadium (7p Eastern)
- One of the only reasons to watch the Marlins, Jose Fernandez takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Sale (8p Eastern)
- The surprisingly impressive Jeff Locke faces the Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, are the Jays back in this?
A week ago, I questioned if the Blue Jays were buried despite recent success and they didn’t lose from that point until yesterday. They are back in it. Which gave me a new threshold for determining whether or not a team is or is not out of it. I heard someone else spout this idea, so I’m not taking credit for it, I’m merely buying into it. If a team is a good two week stretch away from being in contention, they aren’t out of it. I think this is a good barometer for teams thinking about selling at the deadline and that kind of thing. If we play our best baseball right now for two weeks, would we be in this race? That’s how I’m going to start thinking about the standings. Although, I make it a rule not to spend much time looking at the standings until after the break. But hey, that’s soon.
The Morning Edition (June 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Pirates get 3 in the 9th to tie, 4 in the 10th to take the lead and almost give it back as they outlast the Angels
- Morales walks off on the A’s in 10
- The Mets get 8 as Harvey goes 6 scoreless
- Cashner is brilliant, but Street blows it in the 9th
- Latos K’s 13 Dbacks and the Reds survive a rough inning from Chapman
- Toronto slugs their way to 11 straight wins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee visits Petco (10p Eastern)
- Bumgarner faces Ryu (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How can MLB only schedule four games for today?
Clayton Kershaw has thrown 113.1 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.06 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 2.9 WAR.
Mat Latos has thrown 103.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 2.3 WAR.
They aren’t dramatically different, but Kershaw is pretty much better across the board. Kershaw is 5-5 and Latos is 7-1. It’s time to stop caring about pitcher won loss record, it simply isn’t an indicator of individual pitcher performance.
The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
- Kazmir dominates the Twins
- Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
- Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
- Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
- Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
- Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?
As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:
But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.
The Morning Edition (June 18, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Johnson and De La Rosa both go 7 scoreless, but the Jays score late to win
- The Nats tie it in the 9th, but Brown walks off for the Phils
- The Royals get 2 late runs to beat the Indians 2-1
- 5 good innings for Miller, who leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- The Matt Harveys come to ATL (1p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Nationals (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler makes him MLB debut in game two of a DH (7p Eastern)
- Parker and Darvish in Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Sharky and Wainwright in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can the Mets make tomorrow Groundhog Day?
It’s been a tough season for Mets fans, but they should have fun tomorrow. They have ace and Cy Young contender Matt Harvey opening the day, but top prospect Zack Wheeler will make his debut in the night cap. Harvey has already showed himself to be a star, but if Wheeler can be as good as advertised, this could be quite the 1-2 punch for the next 6 seasons. I bet the Giants wish they still had him. Wheeler’s strikeout rate in the minor leagues has been great, but he’ll need to dampen the walks a bit to succeed in the big leagues. Luckily for him, he gets the strikeout prone Braves in his debut.
The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
- Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
- Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
- Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
- Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
- Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
- The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
- Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
- Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?
Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star.
The Morning Edition (June 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clete Thomas goes 4-4 as the Twins beat the Phils
- Miller K’s 10 but gives up 4 as the Cards fall to the Mets
- The Pirates outslug the Giants 12-8
- Frazier homers to lift Leake over Wood and the Cubs
- The Angels beat the O’s despite an 0-5 from Trout
What I’m Watching Today:
- WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY. WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY (1p Eastern)
- Guys, Wainwright and Harvey!
- Latos versus Sharky (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Jays again (8p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee heads to Minnesota (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Wainwright and Harvey a Cy Young battle?
That’s a bit of a misnomer, but it’s easily one of the top duels we’ve seen so far this season even if it won’t actually determine who wins the Cy Young. But it should inform who gets to start the All-Star Game. Verlander and Darvish was close as far as how each pitcher had performed up to that point, but not quite. Let’s look at the big one tomorrow:
Wainwright: 9-3, 93 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 3.8 WAR
Harvey: 5-0, 90 IP, 2.10 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 3.0 WAR
The two starters are 26th and 9th in K/9, 1st and 22nd in BB/9, 8th and 5th in ERA, 1st and 3rd in FIP, 2nd and 6th in xFIP, and 1st and 4th in WAR in MLB. So yeah, that’s pretty good. Watch it. And while you’re waiting for that one to start, check out New English D’s newest feature: New English D Audio.
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