The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
The Morning Edition (June 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Indians beat the Sox 19-10 in game one of a DH, Casper Wells (the OF!) is the only Sox arm not to allow a hit
- Harvey goes 7, gives up 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K…doesn’t get a win and the Mets lose
- Teheran K’s 10 Dbacks, Braves win 3-0
- CC dominates early, but the Orioles get to him late to win 4-3
- The Pirates big inning backs Cole’s victory
- Miller gets chased early in Oakland
- Cuddyer takes the hit streak to 25
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright duels Parker in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Turner welcomes the Friars to Miami (7p Eastern)
- Liriano tries to keep up his ’06 impression (7p Eastern)
- Lee and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is it time to track Cuddyer?
On an eventful Friday, three things stood out most. First, the Indians and White Sox played an insane game that featured former Tigers outfielder throwing a scoreless inning. Second, Matt Harvey threw another brilliant gem that his team coughed up. Third, Michael Cuddyer has now crossed the 25 game mark on his hit streak. I usually take notice around 20 and lock in past 25. I’m in love with hit streak chases because DiMaggio’s 56 game streak is the the single most impressive record in professional sports and any attempt to get near it is so impressive. Cuddyer only needs three more hits to be halfway. Wow.
The Morning Edition (June 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Blue Jays finally lost after winning 11 straight
- There were four games, you don’t need me for this. Here are all the scores and boxes.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish versus Kuroda at Yankees Stadium (7p Eastern)
- One of the only reasons to watch the Marlins, Jose Fernandez takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Sale (8p Eastern)
- The surprisingly impressive Jeff Locke faces the Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, are the Jays back in this?
A week ago, I questioned if the Blue Jays were buried despite recent success and they didn’t lose from that point until yesterday. They are back in it. Which gave me a new threshold for determining whether or not a team is or is not out of it. I heard someone else spout this idea, so I’m not taking credit for it, I’m merely buying into it. If a team is a good two week stretch away from being in contention, they aren’t out of it. I think this is a good barometer for teams thinking about selling at the deadline and that kind of thing. If we play our best baseball right now for two weeks, would we be in this race? That’s how I’m going to start thinking about the standings. Although, I make it a rule not to spend much time looking at the standings until after the break. But hey, that’s soon.
The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
- Kazmir dominates the Twins
- Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
- Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
- Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
- Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
- Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?
As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:
But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
- Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
- Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
- Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
- The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks
- 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
- Astros sweep the White Sox
- Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
- Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
- Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we think of the Padres?
I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.
The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
- Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
- Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
- Freeman walks off on the Giants
- The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
- Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
- Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
- CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
- Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup?
So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…
The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
- Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
- Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
- Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
- Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
- Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
- The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
- Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
- Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?
Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star.
The Morning Edition (June 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright and Harvey don’t disappointed, combining for 14 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 3 BB, and 13 K as the Cards win 2-1
- The Cubs walk off the Reds in 14
- Parker and Kuroda pitch to a draw, the A’s win in 18
- Cain gives the Giants 6.2 scoreless as they beat the Pirates
- Tulo likely facing a “lengthy absence” after breaking rib
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore tries to avoid being dropped from the Appointment Television list against the Royals (7p Eastern)
- Westbrook comes of the DL to face Fernandez (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Medlen in ATL (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe our marquee matchup last night lived up to the hype?
After yesterday’s duel, Adam Wainwright (4.0) and Matt Harvey (3.3) are 1st and 3rd in pitcher WAR, only separated by Anibal Sanchez (3.4). In fact, Wainwright and Harvey are the only two pitchers in the top five who don’t play for the Tigers. It is perhaps worth noting that Wainwright and Harvey are excellent examples as to why the pitcher wins statistic is not useful for evaluating performance. Wainwright has a 2.18 ERA and 1.78 FIP. Harvey has a 2.04 ERA and 2.15 FIP. Harvey leads in K/9, Wainwright leads in BB/9 and HR/9, but both are great in each category. By all reasonable accounts, Wainwright and Harvey are two of the top few pitchers in the league. But Wainwright is 10-3 and Harvey is 5-1. Among the pitchers with more wins than Harvey is Jason Hammel, who features a 5.24 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 0.4 WAR. Pitcher won-loss record is nonsense.
And now, because they’re awesome:
New English D 