The Morning Edition (April 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Reds and Latos edge the Cards and Wainwright 2-1
- Ryan Raburn’s 4 hits and 2 HR power a strong Ubaldo past the Royals 9-0
- Braves slip past the Nats 3-2 thanks to a Simmons sac fly
- Marlins and Mets play deep into the night as Harvey goes 5.1 and allows 1 run and Stanton leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay looks to stay hot against the Tribe (7p Eastern)
- Lester and Morrow face off in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Gio and Hudson duel in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Shields faces Cobb and his old team in KC (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you choose what to watch tomorrow? (Verlander at 7p too!)
Matt Harvey limited the Marlins to 1 run in 5.1 innings with 7 K’s on Monday, but it took him 121 pitches in his least efficient outing to date. Yes, we’re disappointed in a 1 run performance. Thanks for setting that bar, Harvey. Carl Crawford is also having a solid start to his first season with the Dodgers after I said he’d be a platoon player by the Dog Days. He’s got 4 homers and 4 steals in 102 PA (at 12:07am on April 30) to go with his .311/.392/.522 line and 1.4 WAR. I’m not ready to say he’s back to being the Crawford who reigned in Tampa, but he’s certainly better than I expected him to be this year. And don’t look now, but even after tonight’s loss to the Reds, Adam Wainwright has vaulted above 2 WAR in April (2.1) and guys who provide that kind of value in April, usually have big years. I predicted he’d be a top 5 NL starter this year, but if I could do it all over again, he’d be in my top 3.
The Morning Edition (April 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Kershaw tosses 8 innings, 12 K’s, and no walks as Crawford homers twice to push the Dodgers over the Crew
- Stanton homers twice as the Marlins beat the Cubs
- Price wins his first of the year, but gets into it with the home plate umpire about the umpires use of language
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey gets the Marlins, many strikeouts possible (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg takes the hill as the Nats and Braves begin a series in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Wainwright faces Latos in an NL Central clash (8p Eastern)
- Cain and Kennedy battle in the desert (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Wainwright counter Kershaw’s excellent Sunday?
I don’t think you can judge a team’s future performance based on how they play in April, but the games in April count in the standings and you don’t want to get too far behind. The Angels are allowing it to happen again. They enter the final two days of April ahead of only 3 teams in the win column: Cleveland, Miami, and Houston. They’re already 6.5 games back on April 29th. I didn’t think they’d win the West to begin with, but man, you can’t afford to give Texas and Oakland that type of early lead. Maybe if they had spent money on starting pitching this offseason instead of Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .219./.267/.323 so far. They’ll play better, but I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome this deficit and the inherent talent deficit they face.
The Morning Edition (April 28, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Giancarlo Stanton hits his first HR of the season, but the Fish fall to the Cubs 3-2
- Westbrook throws 6 scoreless innings, but the bullpen gives it away to the Pirates
- Harper homers as the Nats back Dan Haren in a 6-3 win over the Reds
- Matt Moore strikes out 9 in 6 innings as the Rays been the White Sox 10-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Dickey tries to find Cy Young form in the Bronx (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Niese hook up in a battle of NL East lefties (1p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller tries to keep the rookie magic alive against the Bucs (2p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces the Padres (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Stanton’s big homerun enough to silence the worriers? (Mostly fantasy owners, because the Marlins don’t really have fans anymore)
As I write this, the two highest position players on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Upton and Shin Shoo Choo. I’ve written about both in this space previously, but the point I’d like to make today is that both were traded this offseason and both trades involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Obviously, we know the Dbacks dealt Upton to the Braves in a package deal that saw Martin Prado as the key return. They also played a role in the Choo deal, as they sent Bauer to Cleveland and got Gregorious from the Reds (via Choo). I’m not sure how long it would take me to verify this, but I can’t imagine that the two best players in the league in a given season had ever been involved in trades made by the same team during the previous winter. Now this doesn’t mean the Dbacks won’t make the playoffs, but I would have to imagine they would have a better shot if they have Upton and/or Choo right now. I mean, Parra is a very good outfielder, but he only has a spot in the lineup because of injuries to Eaton, Ross, and Kubel so far. The Diamondbacks might not understand outfielders.
The Morning Edition (April 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Normally we don’t talk Tigers here, but check out Anibal Sanchez striking out 17 Braves in a 10-0 win
- Jordan Zimmermann twirls a CGSO against the Reds in a 1-0 win (91 pitches, 1 hit)
- Kyle Kendrick also delivers a CGSO in a 4-0 win over the Mets
- Rizzo delivers 2 homeruns in a 4-3 win over the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lefties face off in New York as Sabathia and Happ duel (4p Eastern)
- Under-the-radar standouts, Burnett and Garcia, battle in St. Louis (4p Eastern)
- Must-see Matt Moore faces the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez takes the hill (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which great performance was your favorite, Sanchez, Zimmermann, or Kendrick?
Friday was a fun night if you like pitching. You can read about Anibal Sanchez’s 17 strikeout night here, but Zimmermann and Kendrick delivered excellent performances as well. Sorry, Kendrick, but yours was the least interesting. Sanchez went 8 and struckout 17 and Zimmermann went 9 and only needed 91 pitches. Textbook examples of two kinds of domination. Sanchez overpowered and went with strikeouts and Zimmermann just induced easy out after easy out. If you have the time, go watch the highlights and enjoy. Man, great pitching is fun. Sorry to Rizzo, Encarnacion, and Beltran, but multi-homer games don’t measure up.
The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
The Morning Edition (April 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain came after the 7th inning in Boston as what can only be described as a mercy rule, with the A’s winning 13-0
- Wainwright finally walks someone, but K’s 9 in 8.1 innings as the Cards blank the Nats 2-0
- The Braves top the Rox in Game 1 of a double-header in 23 (!) degree weather
What I’m Watching Today:
- Samarzija and Latos battle at GABP (1230p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets Garcia as the Nats and Cards face off (1p Eastern)
- Halladay faces the Pirates coming off two strong outings (7p Eastern)
- MATT HARVEY against the Dodgers (7p Eastern)
- Guys, MATT HARVEY.
The Big Question:
- Why aren’t you watching Matt Harvey yet?!
So obviously, I’ve written a good deal about Matt Harvey in this post and in previous iterations thereof, but let’s admire Adam Wainwright today because Adam Wainwright is awesome. He missed all of 2011 with TJ surgery after two very strong seasons and came back in 2012 nearly as good as before. If there was question last season, it’s gone now. He’s back and on a mission. Here’s the line to admire:
4-1, 37.1 innings, 8.92 K/9, 0.24 BB/9, 1.93 ERA, 1.12 FIP, 1.9 WAR
Want me to blow your mind more? I will. That line is in spite of a .340 BABIP. For context, that’s like a Rick Porcello BABIP. When guys make contact, they’re getting their hits. He’s just not letting anyone on via the free pass and he’s striking them out when he needs to. Watch out NL Central.
The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
The Morning Edition (April 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Halladay holds the Cardinals to 2 runs in 7 innings in a 8-2 win
- Matt Harvey continues to dominate as he outduels Strasburg in a 7-1 win
- Jean Segura somehow steals first base in a 5-4 win over the Cubs (that was not a typo)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz and Shields face off as the Sox and Jays kick off their series after Friday’s cancellation (1p Eastern)
- Paul Maholm tries to keep his scoreless streak alive against the Bucs (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee and Lance Lynn toe the slab in Philly (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
While I’m repeatedly reminding you that small sample sizes can belie the truth, Matt Harvey is starting to look like one of the NL’s best starters. Certainly we can say he has been one of the best so far this season, but his success looks real and sustainable, even if it won’t be at this level. He looked very good in a handful of starts last season and the stuff is good. Let’s admire his numbers thus far. 4-0, 29IP, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.93 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and a 1.0 WAR. That’s pretty good. As I write this, only Wainwright, Darvish, and Lester have higher pitcher WAR. Fun fact, Verlander, Sanchez, and Scherzer are right behind him. I didn’t include Harvey as one of the best pitchers in the NL going into the season, but man, I’m pretty sure I should have. Every five days, The Morning Edition is just going to become the Matt Harvey How’d He Do? Get used to it.
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