The Morning Edition (May 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Iwakuma sharp as the Mariners walk off in 13
- Neither Kershaw or Miller dazzle, but the Cards win 5-3
- Corbin beats the Padres
- Colon dominates the Astros
- Cobb shuts down the Yanks as his Rays get to CC
- Strasburg beats the Phils with a brilliant outing
- Ellsbury walks off on the Tribe
- The Jays beat the O’s in a crazy 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright comes to KC to battle with Shields (2p Eastern)
- Fernandez and Ordorizzi face off in a Florida prospect affair (3p Eastern)
- Tyler Skaggs makes his season debut against the Rangers (330p Eastern)
- Greinke faces Wilson in an LA battle (8p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Dbacks in Game 2 of a DH (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How does you team look on Memorial Day?
Every Wednesday at New English D, we roll out our weekly Dynamic Standings Projection update, but it’s a conventional rule of thumb for many to take stock of their team on Memorial Day. Generally, at this point you have a general sense of the team’s strengths and weaknesses and the statistical data is starting to provide some meaningful indication of how your team is going to do going forward. I’ll defer you to our weekly updates, which you can find by clicking the link, to see exactly how we think every team will finish, but I’ll offer a couple quick thoughts about MLB so far in 2013:
- I undersold the Red Sox – I liked their offseason moves, I just didn’t think Lester and Buchholz would recover like they did. Contenders.
- I told you the Royals were vastly overrated by the national media – Their pitching is now average, but their offense is terrible. Pretenders.
- Cleveland is decent, but not great – My initial prediction for the Tribe is a little light because I made it before they added the very good Michael Bourn, but they still aren’t a team with long term staying power. They’re playing at their best, which means there is nowhere to go but down. Borderline.
- I told you the Rangers would be great – They don’t miss Hamilton and Napoli at all. Contenders.
- The Angels will hit, but they don’t have the arms – The team will play better, but their rotation weaknesses are too big to overcome. Borderline.
- The Pirates are right on the cusp – I said they’d finish over .500, and I think they just might. But they don’t have the talent to make a playoff run with St. Louis and Cincinnati. Pretenders.
- I did not give the Diamondbacks enough credit – I got caught up in bashing their weird offseason and didn’t appreciate the talent they do have. Contenders.
- The Rockies aren’t a good team, but they’re better than I gave them credit for – The offense can carry the horrible staff enough to finish near .500. Pretenders.
- The national media doesn’t get why the Dodgers are losing, but I do – They took on everyone’s overpaid players and aren’t getting enough from Kemp. People focused on the price tag and not the product. The Dodgers have a lot of players who have their best years behind them. They bough names, not production. They’re better than this, but not good enough to make the playoffs. Borderline.
How Was The Game? (May 26, 2013)
A nice clean win.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
On Memorial Day Sunday, the Tigers gave the ball to Max Scherzer (7-0, 68.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 2.5 WAR) to deliver the series victory against the Twins and he did just that. Scherzer gave the Tigers 6 innings of 1 run baseball mixed with 6 Ks, 3 BB, and just 3 hits to keep the Twins from mounting any offense. Torii Hunter put the Tigers on the board with a first inning opposite field homer and Fielder extended the lead with a 4th inning RBI double. With the score 2-1 in the bottom of the 6th, the Tigers bats came alive as struggling catcher Alex Avila got a bloop RBI single to set up a bases clearing triple from Avi Garcia to put the game out of reach. The win improves the Tigers to 28-20 on the season and gives them 5 wins in their last 6 tries ahead of a 4 game home and home series with the Pittsburgh Pirates starting on Monday. Justin Verlander (5-4, 59 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 2.1 WAR) will get the ball in game one, looking to straighten himself out and get back to his early season dominance.
The Moment: Garcia slams a bases loaded triple to left center.
The Morning Edition (May 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Pagan hits a walk off inside the park homerun against the Rockies
- Peavy goes the distance as the Sox walk off against Miami
- Gomez homers twice but it’s not enough to beat the Bucs
- Moore is strong against the Yanks but the bullpen blows it in extras
- The Red Sox offense picks up a mediocre Lester against the Tribe
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza against Cueto in Cincinnati (1p Eastern)
- Hamels and Strasburg duel in DC (130p Eastern)
- CC and Cobb at the Trop (130p Eastern)
- Corbin gets the Padres (4p Eastern)
- SHELBY MILLER VERSUS CLAYTON KERSHAW (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which game most intrigues you today?
The answer to that is obviously Cardinals and Dodgers as it includes two very good starters who are pitching well as of late. Kershaw is a well established Appointment Television starter and Shelby Miller, I can tell you on good authority, is just one good start away from making that list. Kershaw enters the game at 5-2 through 73.1 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 2.53 FIP, and 2.0 WAR, not to mention a dazzling track record while his opponent, Miller, is 5-3 through 57 innings with a 1.74 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.6 WAR to go along with his prospect pedigree. One likely expects a great pitchers’ duel from this one, but as the author learned just last week in the Verlander-Darvish Fiasco of 2013, great pitching matchups sometimes disappoint the viewer who wishes to see nothing but amazing starting pitching. The game not only features two of the authors favorite pitchers to watch, but it takes place after the Tigers game and will be announced by the golden pipes of Vin Scully. Enjoy, world.
How Was The Game? (May 25, 2013)
A tight one.
Twins 3, Tigers 2
After Sanchez rolled by the Twins last night, it was time for a close game at Comerica Park and the Twins got to Doug Fister (5-2, 61.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 1.9 WAR) for 3 first inning runs before he shut them down the rest of the way to finish with 7 innings, 8 hits, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP, and 8 Ks thanks to better use of his curveball. Hunter doubled in a run in the 5th and Peralta homered in the 6th to close the gap to 3-2 entering the late innings, but the Tigers would get no closer. The loss drops the Tigers to 27-20 on the season, but they will try to take the series tomorrow with Max Scherzer (6-0, 62.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 2.3 WAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Fister gets a big double play to escape trouble in the 3rd.
The Nine Best Tigers Teams Ever
Today, the Detroit Tigers are paying tribute to the 1968 team during the 45th anniversary year of that team’s World Series win, the 3rd in Tigers history. Today, I though I’d give you a ranking of the best Tigers teams ever by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which will allow for a comparison between eras.
As you may know, one of the primary benefits of WAR is that it compares players to their own contemporaries, meaning that it controls for the overall quality of the league at the time. Obviously, Babe Ruth played in a low HR era, so his totals look more impressive than someone like Sammy Sosa who played at the height of offense in MLB. WAR allows us to make direct comparisons between teams that played decades apart, which is why I’m using it. Obviously, you can look at win totals and how far each team went in the postseason, but this is another approach to the same question.
9. 1909 Tigers (47 WAR, 98 Wins, lost World Series)
8. 1946 Tigers (48.6 WAR, 92 Wins)
7. 1968 Tigers (48.8 WAR, 103 Wins, won World Series)
6. 1940 Tigers (49.4 WAR, 90 Wins, lost World Series)
5. 1935 Tigers (50.1 WAR, 93 Wins, won World Series)
4. 1961 Tigers (50.7 WAR, 101 Wins)
3. 1915 Tigers (50.8 WAR, 100 Wins)
2. 1984 Tigers (51.6 WAR, 104 Wins, won World Series)
1. 1934 Tigers (52.1 WAR, 101 Wins, lost World Series)
Should you be interested, the 2012 Tigers ranked 16th on this list with 43.9 WAR and 88 Wins, while the 2006 Tigers were 23rd with 42.2 WAR and 95 wins. Surprisingly (and perhaps due to WWII), the World Champion 1945 Tigers are 56th on the list with 34.5 WAR and 88 wins. The 2013 Tigers are already better than 13 other Tigers teams!
It’s also of note, perhaps, the strong relationship that Wins Above Replacement has with actual team Wins in large samples; nearly a perfect 1 to 1 ratio.
So while we tend to consider the four World Series teams the best ones, if you’re looking for regular season greatness the list looks slightly different. Let’s celebrate all of the great Tigers teams, and even the bad ones. Even that one at the far bottom left portion of the graph. I still love you, 2003 Tigers.
The Morning Edition (May 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Young hits a 3 run 9th inning HR to beat the Astros 6-5
- The O’s win a slugfest against the Jays
- Zimmermann solid as the Nats beat the Phils
- Lynn cruises against the Dodgers early
- Another strong start for McCarthy
- Sanchez nearly no-hits the Twins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester faces the Indians in Boston (130p Eastern)
- Moore faces the Yanks (4p Eastern)
- Cashner and Miley battle to determine who has the better beard, see below (10p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Rangers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you see the phantom double play in Seattle?
Here is a link to the .gif of the play from the great Drew Shepherd (@dshep25), Blackbelt GIF-ologist. The umpire calls the batter-runner out, even though the ball doesn’t go to the fielder who is touching first base. Keith Law brought this up on Twitter, quite angrily, while a number of people shot back that the umpire is watching the foot and listening for the ball. That’s probably a fair defense of the umpire except he should have been able to use his peripheral vision to notice the pitcher converging on the play and should have at least made some attempt to check to see who had the baseball. Umpires often ask fielder to show them the ball to confirm it remained in their glove through the play and this is when that should happen. MLB needs replay. Full replay. It would be very easy and would cost, by the estimate of a former umpire with knowledge of the planning, only about $3 million. That’s less than Brendan Ryan makes this year.
How Was The Game? (May 24, 2013)
So close.
Tigers 6, Twins 0
There are two types of no-hitters, the kind you see coming a mile away and the kind that sneak up on you. Verlander is a master of the first, but Anibal Sanchez (5-4, 64.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 2.9 WAR) nearly delivered the second tonight as he fell two outs short against the Minnesota Twins. He struck out 12 and walked only 3?enroute to his eight career CG. Early on, he seemed ordinary but the stuff slowly started showing up and once he walked off the mound after the fifth inning, I looked up and thought, “Hmmm. No hits?” That doesn’t typically happen for someone like me who is completely engrossed in the game from start to finish, but somehow it snuck up on me. And then there is was. Sanchez was marching toward history. Six innings. Seven. Eight. Cabrera, Infante, and Kelly each backed him with two runs driven in and it was never in doubt. As crowd buzzed more with every pitch, #19 rose to the occasion, willing him to throw the first Tigers no-hitter by someone other than Justin Verlander since Jack Morris in 1984. With the top of the order up in the 9th, Sanchez went to work. Carroll down on strikes. And then Joe Mauer, JOE MAUER, singled back up the box to ruin everyone’s day. He got Willingham on strikes and then Morneau with the same. The win, their fourth straight, improves the Tigers to 27-19 on the year and they will look to win the series tomorrow afternoon behind Doug Fister (5-1, 54.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.75 FIP, 1.7 WAR).
The Moment: Sanchez gets the final out (see above) after loosing the no-no two batters earlier.
There’s Miguel Cabrera and Then There’s Everyone Else
Earlier today, Fangraphs’ resident GIF expert posted this beauty that demonstrates Cabrera’s ability to hit for power no matter where a pitch is located. And a large number of other people whose job it is to say things about baseball have flooded the internet with statistics and observations about Cabrera’s torrid start.
I’m not going to rehash everything because most of you can read and it’s pretty easy to call up numbers with a quick Google search. But I would like to point a few things out about Miguel Cabrera with respect to his peers at this moment.
First, Cabrera leads MLB in WAR (3.2) by 0.3 over Evan Longoria (2.9), but Miguel Cabrera is currently rated as the 8th worst defensive player who qualifies by Fangraphs. In other words, Cabrera is hitting so much better than everyone else that he is still the most valuable player even though he is among the worst glovemen going. Let’s look at it:
And now, just for reference:
Miguel Cabrera has been baesball’s most valuable player so far despite being one of it’s worst defenders. That’s how much better he is than everyone else at the plate. You can see from the first graph that the quality of your offense and the quality of your defense aren’t that strongly related (on average a 1 unit increase in wRC+ decreases your defensive score by .007, but the results aren’t statistically significant and the R squared hardly registers.). But on the other hand, Fld and WAR are related (on average, a one unit increase in Fld will increase your WAR by .08 with the results being statistically significant and the R squared at least somewhat reasonable).
In other words, defense and hitting aren’t really related, but defense and WAR are (obviously). That rule just doesn’t apply to Cabrera because he’s outhitting everyone by so much.
He’s out there by himself. If you’d rather break it down by AVG, OBP, and SLG it’s just as impressive.
Miguel Cabrera, through 45 games, is simply outhitting everyone. This is the peak of one of the best hitters we’ve seen in our lifetimes, so enjoy it.
The Morning Edition (May 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Angels get 4 HR off former teammate Santana to beat the Royals
- The Indians take out their Tigers frustration on the Red Sox, win 12-3
- Gausman doesn’t impress with results in his debut, falls to the Jays
- The Pirates get to Jackson, win 4-2
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann faces the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Masterson looks to stay hot against the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
- Danks makes his season debut against the Marlins (8p Eastern)
- Burnett heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- McCarthy looks to back up two good starts against the Friars (930p)
The Big Question:
- Who would you guess is the worst defensive team in the league?
I’d have said the Astros before I looked it up, but it’s the Angels. The Angels! They’re -37 DRS, -16.1 UZR, -10.3 UZR/150 which are all 30th best in the league. That seems really crazy to me given some of the great defenders they have, but with their overall struggles, some must be leaking into the defensive side. Let’s look. I set the minimum innings to 30 at a position and looked at the leaderboard. Here it is:
I know defensive numbers don’t stabilize this early, but that’s just not what you want to see for a team that should be pretty good on defense.
How Was The Game? (May 23, 2013)
A team effort.
Tigers 7, Twins 6
You might take a look at Rick Porcello’s (2-2, 43 IP, 6.28 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 0.3 WAR) 4 run 3rd inning and dismiss his performance as poor, but his defense botched a couple of plays and made the whole thing look worse than it was. The gopherball to Willingham is the only pitch he’ll lose sleep over, but he shouldn’t lose too much as his offense came to his rescue in spades. Cabrera homered in the 1st and drove in a third run with an infield hit in the 5th, while the whole team got involved in a 3 run 7th that erased Porcello’s 5 runs and Downs’ 1. In the 8th, Infante reached, Hunter bunted him to second, and Cabrera was IBB’d to set up a Prince Fielder RBI single to give the Tigers a 7-6 lead which would hold up to the scrutiny of the 9th inning. With the win the Tigers move to 26-19 and will turn to Anibal Sanchez (4-4, 55.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.80 FIP, 2.4 WAR) tomorrow night looking for their 4th straight win.
The Moment: Peralta drives in Fielder with a double to left to tie the game.
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