Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers
The following post is something I’ve been toying with in one form or another for a long time and finally got around to crystallizing this afternoon. I’ve often made reference to pitchers being “Appointment Television” in various Morning Edition and other posts and I thought I’d take that a little further and outline exactly who I’m talking about.
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Stephen Strasburg
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Matt Moore
- Clay Buchholz
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez
- Jon Lester
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
How Was The Month?: Detroit Tigers April Report
Right on track.
15-11
This piece comes a day late, forgive me, but I had four or five posts yesterday and didn’t want to clog up the feed, so May 1st is part of April for one year only. It’s hard to be upset about anything after a 15-11 month which puts the team on pace for 93-94 wins and a third straight AL Central title, but there are always negative voices. Ignore them.
The Tigers offense is 8th in baseball with 104 wRC+ so far this year and have scored the 6th most runs of any team (127). They are 2nd in batting average (.279), 4th in OBP (.345), and 12th in slugging (.410), giving them the 6th best wOBA (.329) in the league. I don’t generally subscribe to the idea of clutch hitting with runners in scoring position, but if you’re interested, their OBP in those situations is .341, which is roughly what they’re doing across the board.
The defense, as you might suspect, hasn’t been great so far with the team posting a collective -12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) good for 27th in baseball and a -9.6 UZR which ranks the same. Early defensive numbers should always be taken with a grain of salt given the small sample size and Austin Jackson probably won’t post negative numbers over the course of the season, but Cabrera is already at -4 DRS this season and I think that’s probably true. I don’t think he’s necessarily gotten worse, but he is missing more close plays that he did last year. Hopefully that evens out.
Individually, as one would expect given the collective numbers, lots of Tigers are performing well early. Cabrera is off to a great start .371/.446/.571, 175 wRC+, and 1.2 WAR. Remember too that most of these WAR numbers are suppressed due to poor defensive numbers. Hunter has been a standout hitting .365/.405/.490, good for 145 wRC+, and 0.8 WAR. Peralta is hitting like a top 10 shortstop, turning in a .293/.336/.404 line during the first month of play and Jackson is doing well after a torrid opening week, delivering a .284/.352/.397 April.
Prince Fielder is also punishing the ball in 166 wRC+ fashion thanks to 7 HR and a .302/.420/.583 slash line. Infante is doing well for himself too with a 100 wRC+, making him a top 10 second basemen so far.
Alex Avila has started slowly, posting a wRC+ of just 50 so far, but that is at least partially driven by a very low .213 BABIP which should regress upward and erase some of the problem. Victor Martinez has been someone a lot of people were worried about as he is hitting .212/.279/.263 so far but his .236 indicates that luck will change. He’s hit a lot of balls hard that haven’t found holes.
But even if that didn’t impress you, the pitching will. The Tigers pitchers lead baseball with a 7.0 WAR, which is 1.5 WAR ahead of 2nd place. They have a league best 2.71 FIP and are striking out 9.84 batters per 9. Lots of people are worried about the bullpen, but thanks to a lot of strikeouts, they’re 6th best in the league in FIP.
The top four starters are delivering. Sanchez (1.34 FIP, 2.0 WAR), Verlander (2.11 FIP, 1.6 WAR), Scherzer (1.69 FIP, 1.4 WAR), and Fister (3.17 FIP, 0.9 WAR) are all top 20 starters so far and Drew Smyly is performing at relief ace levels (1.64 FIP, 0.6 WAR).
The Tigers lost a couple extra inning games that could have gone either way, so their 15-11 record doesn’t even reflect the quality of play. If the Tigers keep this up, they’ll be playing October baseball once again.
The Moment: Brayan Pena absorbs a collision from Justin Smoak to finish off a 14 inning win in Seattle.
The Morning Edition (May 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zimmermann strikes out 8 and walks none across eight shutout innings as the Nats beat the Braves 2-0
- Red Sox bats rock the Jays as Buchholz dominates again
- Raburn has 4 more hits to power Bauer to his first win despite 6 walks in 5 innings against Cliff Lee
- Feldman K’s 12 in a CG win over the Padres
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ervin Santana looks to keep his early season success going against the Rays (2p Eastern)
- Haren tries to stay on track as Medlen tries to bounce back in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Jake Westbrook’s 0.98 ERA on display against the Brewers (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How series is Bryce Harper’s injury?
Ryan Raburn was always fun to watch in my opinion, even though most Tigers fans didn’t feel that way. He’s up to his old tricks in Cleveland destroying the baseball over the last three days (11 for 13, 4HR). This is his updated line: .364/.407/.655 with a 193 wRC+ and a positive 1.9 UZR which is good for 1.0 WAR in just 16 games. Obviously he won’t keep that up, but Ryan Raburn is basically Babe Ruth so far this season. He’s capable of amazing things and from 2009-2011 was incredible in the 2nd half of the season. He’s doing it early this year. Watch out.
How Was The Game? (May 1, 2013)
It had to end sometime.
Twins 6, Tigers 2
Despite a 40+ pitch first inning in which he allowed 2 runs and a 2nd inning in which he allowed another, Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 39.2 IP, 11.34 K/9, 1.82 ERA, 1.33 FIP, 2.0 WAR) settled in and turned in a solid pitching performance against the Twins allowing just 7 baserunners and 3 runs to go with his 9 strikeouts over 6 innings. Unfortunately, just as the Tigers were rallying after a slow start in the bottom of the 6th, the bullpen erased the progress as Rondon allowed 2 in the 7th and Downs allowed 1 in the 8th to extend the deficit to four runs. With Dotel and Coke on the DL and Smyly and Alburquerque getting the day off, the Tigers didn’t have a lot of options in the ‘pen, but it’s likely that Rondon will head back to Toledo after today’s outing in which he couldn’t find the plate or get anyone to miss his fastball, especially considering how easily Ortega handled the Twins in the 9th. The Tigers still won the series and finish the homestand 6-2 and 15-11 overall as they hop on a plane for Houston to start a four game set on Thursday behind Rick Porcello (1-2, 19.1 IP, 8.84 ERA, 4.98 FIP, 0.0 WAR).
The Moment: Sanchez retires the last 11 batters he faces to get through 6 despite a 41 pitch first inning.
Justin Verlander Conquers April (with graphs!)
This particular pitcher, Justin Verlander, is widely considered to be one of the best in baseball. You may disagree with that statement, but he’s certainly one of the very best pitchers in the entire league. Yet he has become the game’s best without doing very well in the season’s first month over the course of his career. Even in his Cy Young/MVP season, his April ERA was 3.64. In 2009, it was 6.75!
It’s been a bit of a thing among Tigers fans that Verlander isn’t that good in April. But he’s getting better and that should probably terrify you if you are a major league hitter.
Let’s take a look at his ERA and FIP in April across his career:
There was a time in which Verlander allowed a lot of runs in April and pitched in a way that suggested he would allow runs. ERA tells you what happened, FIP tells you what generally happens to pitchers who pitch a certain way. But over the last few years, he’s conquered April. His 2013 April ERA was 1.83. Imagine what he can do this season now that he isn’t trying to play catch up.
This trend is evident in his K/9 and BB/9 numbers as well:
Verlander has made noticeable improvement in April walk rate over the last few seasons and the strikeout rate hasn’t suffered.
Now maybe Verlander won’t take this great April and turn it into a season better than 2009 or 2011 or 2012, but he very easily could. If he continues his pattern of pitching better in the summer months, then we may be in for a treat. Verlander, I would argue, is nowhere near the top of his game so far this year, but he’s getting good results. When he settles in, it could be awesome.
He’s the richest pitcher in history and his teammates are putting pressure on him to match their great start. Justin Verlander has usually stumbled through April, but he did not do so in 2013. Could this be Verlander’s career year? If April is any indication, clear your calendar for every fifth day and start thinking about a trip to Cooperstown in about 15 years.
Dynamic Standings Projection (May 1, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 30 games.
The Morning Edition (May 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Garcia leads the Cards past the Reds with 8 strong
- Shields leads the Royals past his former team 8-2
- The Indians hit 7 HR including 2 more from Ryan Raburn as they rough up Halladay and the Phils
- More than 46 HR hit across MLB
What I’m Watching Today:
- Control savant Cliff Lee faces wild and exciting Trevor Bauer in Cleveland (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz tries to stay hot against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann tries to stay hot as Maholm tries to bounce back at Turner Field (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Seriously, what was up with all the runs scored last night?
The Indians offense pummeled the Phillies and Roy Halladay who did not look like the guy who tossed a couple good starts in a row. He’s not going to be a 6.00 ERA guy, but I don’t know that we’ll ever see the surgeon of the strikezone again. Ryan Raburn is being Ryan Raburn. He’s 7-8 with 4 HR in his last two games and is just crushing the ball right now. He’s the most engaging, streaky hitter I’ve ever seen. When it’s going good, he’s Babe Ruth and when it’s going bad he’s a reasonably good middle schooler. I just can’t look away. It’s a lot of fun.
How Was The Game? (April 30, 2013)
A blast.
Tigers 6, Twins 1
Sorry for the pun, but the Tigers won with more homeruns. It was Cabrera, then Avila, then Price. And Hunter had a regular RBI in there too. They hammered Vance Worley across 4.2 innings and sent him to the showers in line for a loss. Verlander had a rocky 2nd inning, but limited the damage to one run and ended the night with 8 K’s, 1 walk, and 5 hits across 7 innings. His velocity was up from earlier in the month and his thumb didn’t seem to bother him. He capped off his best April to date with his 3rd win of the season (3-2, 39.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 2.08 FIP, 1.6 WAR) and you can come back tomorrow at 12:30pm to see just how much better he performed this April than he had in the past. This win made it 5 in a row for the Tigers and 6 of their last 7 to move to 15-10 on the season with a chance to sweep the Twins behind Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 33.2 IP, 10.96 K/9, 1.34 ERA, 1.36 FIP, 1.7 WAR) tomorrow at 1pm. It’s possible we may see some strikeouts.
The Moment: Prince puts it out of reach with a line drive homerun in the 5th.
The Morning Edition (April 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Reds and Latos edge the Cards and Wainwright 2-1
- Ryan Raburn’s 4 hits and 2 HR power a strong Ubaldo past the Royals 9-0
- Braves slip past the Nats 3-2 thanks to a Simmons sac fly
- Marlins and Mets play deep into the night as Harvey goes 5.1 and allows 1 run and Stanton leaves with an injury
What I’m Watching Today:
- Halladay looks to stay hot against the Tribe (7p Eastern)
- Lester and Morrow face off in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Gio and Hudson duel in Atlanta (7p Eastern)
- Yu Darvish gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Shields faces Cobb and his old team in KC (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you choose what to watch tomorrow? (Verlander at 7p too!)
Matt Harvey limited the Marlins to 1 run in 5.1 innings with 7 K’s on Monday, but it took him 121 pitches in his least efficient outing to date. Yes, we’re disappointed in a 1 run performance. Thanks for setting that bar, Harvey. Carl Crawford is also having a solid start to his first season with the Dodgers after I said he’d be a platoon player by the Dog Days. He’s got 4 homers and 4 steals in 102 PA (at 12:07am on April 30) to go with his .311/.392/.522 line and 1.4 WAR. I’m not ready to say he’s back to being the Crawford who reigned in Tampa, but he’s certainly better than I expected him to be this year. And don’t look now, but even after tonight’s loss to the Reds, Adam Wainwright has vaulted above 2 WAR in April (2.1) and guys who provide that kind of value in April, usually have big years. I predicted he’d be a top 5 NL starter this year, but if I could do it all over again, he’d be in my top 3.
How Was The Game? (April 29, 2013)
Tigers’ baseball.
Tigers 4, Twins 3
The formula for Tigers’ victories this year is relatively simple: strike the other team out and hit for power. That’s just happens to be what they did on Monday against the Twins. Scherzer provided 7.1 innings of 3 run baseball and struck out 10 while allowing 6 hits and no walks to improve to 3-0 on the season (13.21 K/9, 4.02 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 1.4 WAR). Dirks homered in the 3rd and Prince matched him with a 3 run shot of his own in the 6th to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead that would hold up for good. The ‘pen backed Scherzer with 1.2 innings of scoreless relief from Smyly (who by the way, is killing it so far this season: 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 1.59 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.6 WAR in 17 innings) and Benoit. They played to their strengths and won their 4th straight game and 5th in their last 6 tries to improve to 14-10 on the season. They’ll try to take the series tomorrow behind the seemingly forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (2-2, 32.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 1.2 WAR).
The Moment: Prince homers into the visiting bullpen to give the Tigers a 4-3 lead in the 6th.
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