2013 Season Preview: National League West
If we knew nothing else than who won the World Series every year, the National League West would look as if it was doing pretty well for itself as it is home to two of the last three world champions. Both of those teams are the San Francisco Giants, however, so it’s probably better for everyone if we had a little more information.
The division features those defending champion Giants and baseball’s newest quarter billion dollar payroll, the Dodgers. Both clubs have their sights set on a playoff run and they will have company.
The Diamondbacks made a lot of roster juggling, win now type deals this year and the Padres had a good run to end 2012. Only the Rockies can be said to have no realistic playoff hopes for 2013.
The division features big ballparks and could be a growing challenge to baseball’s previously elite divisions in the years to come. For now, it remains a bit off the pace in my book. Here’s how SABR Toothed Tigers sizes up the NL West for 2013.
[Division Rank. Team (Predicted 2013 Record, Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Colorado Rockies (63-99, 28)
The Rockies had a bad season in 2012 and didn’t do a whole lot to make their team better for 2013. The offense, with a healthy Tulowitzki, is formidable enough to contend, but they cannot do it alone. The starting rotation and bullpen, even with generous adjustments for the tough home ballpark, are abysmal. The Rockies have a number of guys I would feel comfortable placing at the back end of my rotation, but none who belong at the front. If the Rockies won more than 75 games in 2013, I would be absolutely shocked. As you can see by my preseason ranking, I think the Rockies will be among the worst five teams in baseball this year.
4. San Diego Padres (78-84, 22)
The Padres played much better in the second of half of 2012 and actually looked like a team that could contend in 2013 with a few upgrades. Unfortunately, they didn’t make any big upgrades. They took some chances on previously injured starters who could certainly provide good value, but no one who will be a bona fide difference maker. With some good fortune, the Padres should spend a few months kicking dirt around the second wild card, but the talent just isn’t there without a couple more acquisitions.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80, 15)
The Diamondbacks have a talented roster, but also made some strange moves this offseason. They traded Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Trevor Bauer for a return of Martin Prado, Didi Gregorius, Heath Bell, and Randall Delgado. There are a few more pieces as well, but these are the ones who look to make an impact this year. They signed Cody Ross and Eric Chavez and have good pitching depth coming from the system to go along with centerfielder in waiting Adam Eaton. On the whole, this is a talented club, but they seemed to get the worse end of every move they made. That doesn’t mean they’ll have a bad season, but it does make you wonder how well the team is run. I wouldn’t be surprised by a playoff push from the Dbacks, but it will require another big year from Aaron Hill and Paul Golschmidt in addition to solid seasons from a lot of lesser pieces. The key will be how well a deep but inexperienced pitching staff can navigate through a full season. This is a good team, but not a great team and their record will reflect that.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74, 11)
I’ve written on several occasions that I don’t think the Dodgers have successfully spent their way into a playoff berth, but rather have merely allowed themselves to get into the discussion. Their top two starters, Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, are phenomenal, but the rotation is uncertain after that despite a number of options. Carl Crawford claims he’ll be ready by Opening Day, but I’m doubtful we’ll ever see him regain his Tampa Bay form. Matt Kemp is coming off an injury plagued season and Andre Either’s and Adrian Gonzalez’s best days are behind them as far as I’m concerned. This isn’t a bad team, but this is not the best team $250 million can buy. The Dodgers should be in the playoff chase right down to the wire, but they’re not going to make into October.
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71, 7)
The Giants have earned this spot in part due to history and in part due to reason. As far as history is concerned, they’ve won two World Series in three years and are due some deference for that. Rationally though, they won the division last year and return the same team minus a half season of Melky Cabrera and plus full ones from Hunter Pence and Marco Scutaro. The Dodgers may be better than last year, but they also had an unusually lucky first two months last year, so that might balance out. It’s also hard to imagine Tim Lincecum doing any worse than he did in 2012 and could reasonably do much, much better. The Giants aren’t the most talented team in baseball for 2013, but they have shown the ability to exceed our expectations of them. This is a team that plays good defense and pitches well, but they are also a better offensive club than they were in 2010 when they played “torture baseball.” Buster Posey will lead the way, but he won’t be on his own. The Giants aren’t my pick for the World Series, but they are my pick to represent the NL West in the postseason.
Awards and Miscellaneous Predictions:
NL West Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
NL West MVP: Troy Tulowitzki
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Hanley Ramirez
Division Storyline That Will Surprise Us: The Dodgers will be desperate for pitching by June.
Boldest of the Bold: Carl Crawford will be a platoon player by August.
The Nine Best Left Fielders for 2013
Compiling a list of The Nine best left fielders proved interesting this season because so many of the players on this list were not full time left fielders last season. By my count, three or four of the top nine spent time at a different position in 2012 and as of this publication, they are not all 100% locks to play left field. If you’re reading this during the season and are like, “Hey, #1 plays centerfield!” you might be right. Please take the positionality of the outfielders with a grain of salt.
That said, this was a very deep list. Apologies to many who didn’t make the cut. Prove me wrong and end up on next year’s list.
9. Curtis Granderson/Brett Gardner (Yankees)
Now it may seem strange to have the ninth spot go to two players, but I’m just not sure which Yankee is going to be in left field this season and either one would fit right here on my list, so it’s both of them. Whichever plays there, lands here. Granderson hits for power, but Gardner is much better at getting on base and plays a much better defense. Both players have great aspects of their games and both have weaknesses.
8. Yoenis Cespedes (Athletics)
Cespedes hit nicely in 2012, but missed 33 games and played below average defense. It’s hard to be sure about those flaws because we don’t have any great data from his time playing in Cuba, but he has all the necessary tools to excel in the majors. My hesitation with him is merely that I don’t have nearly as much information about him as I do for everyone else on the list. If he repeats his 2012, he’ll move up the list quickly.
7. Carlos Gonzalez (Rockies)
CarGo’s place on this list is really a testament to his contemporaries rather than a knock on him. He’s on base a lot and hits for power to go along with some good baserunning chops. His defense is something of an open question because certain people love it and certain people hate it. Gonzalez gets help from his park to some degree, so that will cost him just a spot or so on the list. Great player, but not a top five left fielder for 2013.
6. Justin Upton (Braves)
Upton still has his prime ahead of him and is moving to the Braves and left field to play with his brother, but he also had a rough season in 2012 compared to a great 2011. Most people see the talent and expect great things, but he also seems to have developed the reputation as an underperformer. The change of scenery should be good for him because his coaching staff and front office won’t be looking to trade him every day. A good season for Upton is ahead, but not a great one.
5. Matt Holliday (Cardinals)
Holliday is a great and consistent offensive performer and is just starting to slow down defensively at 33. He’s the centerpiece of a great lineup and hasn’t been worth fewer than 4 WAR since 2006. The ceiling might be lower than Upton, but the floor is higher.
4. Alex Gordon (Royals)
Gordon took a while to arrive relative to expectations, but he finally did in 2011 and followed it with a great 2012. He’s a gold glove defender in left and does everything well. Power, speed, and discipline mix nicely in Gordon and for my money, after Ben Zobrist, is probably baseball’s most underrated player. The Royals might not have enough to contend this year, but they have a star in left.
3. Bryce Harper (Nationals)
Harper is another player moving to left this season, and he’s doing it on baseball’s best team. He had a great season for a teenager at 19 and another year under his belt should only make him better. Harper is often referred to as a generational talent, but even if he isn’t Mantle or Mays, a single step forward from last season should be enough to put him near the top of this list. Harper does everything well and should be at the top of this list for years to come.
2. Ryan Braun (Brewers)
Ryan Braun is arguably baseball’s best all-around player. He is an MVP at the plate, runs the bases well, and is consistently improving his defense in left. He’s entering his prime despite having a collection of elite seasons already under his belt and has never missed more than twelve games in a season in five and a half big league seasons. The fact that Braun is second on this list despite that resume tells you something about the man ahead of him.
1. Mike Trout (Angels)
Mike Trout had an all-time great season at 20. The guys who do that, tend to be all-time greats. He hit for power and average, ran the bases as well as anyone in the game, and was among the very best defensive centerfielders in the sport. He was, by far, the best player in the league in 2012. That performance is not something you can easily duplicate, but even 75% of what he was last season would be enough to challenge Braun for first on this list. If Trout was half as good as he was last season, he would still be a perennial all-star. Mike Trout might not be the best player in the league for years to come, but it’s hard not to dream on his talent and get caught up in his 2012 season. Lost in this love letter to Trout is that there is a player on the Angels who is good enough on defense that he is pushing Trout to left in 2013; Peter Bourjos. Trout is the best left fielder for 2013 only because there is someone on his team who is a better defensive centerfielder than he is. Pretty amazing.
Like this list? Hate this list? Have a more nuanced feeling about this list? Join the discussion in the comments section or on Facebook and Twitter.
#GetJimLeylandOnTwitter
Word has it that over the last year or so, Tigers manager Jim Leyland has become a bit more tech savvy that he used to be. Leyland famously didn’t know how to turn on his computer when he arrived in Detroit, but last year he sent “text messages” and this spring he has used Skype to speak with his wife. (“She looked good!”)
Which got me thinking, if Leyland progresses at this rate, it is possible that he could join Twitter one day.
Last year, at one point during a fan mutiny, Leyland wanted fans to e-mail their lineup choices to members of the media to show him so that he could get their input, if they were so smart. But what if we could tweet with Jim?
His son and Tigers minor leaguer Patrick is on Twitter, so presumably someone could help him out at home. And several Tigers players are “Tweeps,” including Paws, the Tigers’ mascot. Could we soon be living in a world in which Jim Leyland tweets?
One can only hope.
His mixture of sage wisdom and nonsensical clichés are exactly what you need to be successful on Twitter, or really the internet in general.
Consider: “Man, that trip to the dry cleaner was just what the doctor ordered. #tonic”
Additionally, I would be very interested to see how mumbling sounds in 140 characters and if he would tweet about things that make him emotional.
“Just got off at Exit 32. That just makes me think of Donnie Kelly. I love that man more than my wife and son put together. #goldenboy”
But most importantly, he could tweet out his lineups ahead of time so that fans could critique his managing in an interactive way.
His Twitter profile would say, “Tigers Skipper, 3 Pennants and a World Series. Will block lineup suggestions.”
In fact, can you think of any person currently without a Twitter page that would be more entertaining to follow than Jim Leyland? I sure can’t.
Just imagine the kinds of things Rod could tweet at him. “Hey Skip!!! You got those boys workin today! #keepinitreal”
This needs to happen. Jim Leyland belongs on Twitter. Don’t you agree?
#LeylandonTwitter2013
Science Proves Justin Verlander Worst in League at Something
Yesterday, beloved Tigers ace Justin Verlander turned thirty years old. He accomplished a great deal in his twenties such as winning two pennants, Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young, and an MVP award to go along with 124 wins (39.3 WAR) and the title of best pitcher in baseball. Sometime in the next two years, he’ll also likely sign the largest contract ever given to a pitcher.
Verlander is an extraordinary pitcher and we love him for that, but Justin Verlander is also extremely terrible at something. Hitting.
Put more clearly, Justin Verlander accumulated exactly zero hits before his 30th birthday.
He’s 0-24 with 9 sac bunts, 14 strikeouts and one GIDP. That is a very bad stat line if you’re not familiar with baseball. His triple slash line is all zeros and his wRC+ is -100. League average is 100 (notice the absence of a minus sign).
Well, so what, AL pitchers can’t be asked to hit, right? Well they have to hit a little bit.
In 2012, AL pitchers made 319 plate appearances (about half a season for a standard position player) and posted a .122/.143/.129 slash line. That is very bad by any field player standard, but it is a line of which Verlander can only dream.
Over the last seven seasons (JV’s career), AL pitchers hit a collective .118. He has hit .000.
So to even be average among his peers, Verlander should have between two and three hits in his career. Of course it’s a small sample, but this is a fun post, so we get to ignore that.
Let’s go further, since 2006, 29 pitchers have twenty or more plate appearances in an AL uniform. Guess how many don’t have a hit?
Two. Only Verlander and Jon Lester. Only Lester, Kevin Milwood, and Tim Wakefield have more strikeouts than JV.
So while, AL pitchers are rarely asked to hit, the AL’s best pitcher is probably one of the league’s very worst hitters, even among his peers.
Justin Verlander is spectacular at many things, but hitting is not one of them. He has two no-hitters and only four men have three. It would surprise no one if he joined that group this year. But could 2013 be the year he finally gets a hit?
That seems like a longshot.
The league’s best pitcher is quite possibly the league’s worst hitter. Now, who wants to tell him?
Thinking Aloud About Grading Managers
Last Friday, MLB Network completed their Top Ten Right Now series with a look at baseball’s best ten managers. The series was informed heavily by Clubhouse Confidential’s “shredder” which uses an objective formula to determine player value much like Wins Above Replacement. But this gets sticky, as they admit, when it comes to managers because it’s very hard to determine what managers should get credit for and for what they should get blamed.
So I started thinking about what it would look like to quantify manager value. We have a great set of offensive and pitching statistics that quantify player performance and an increasingly good group of stats to measure defense, but what do we have that measures what a manager does? Let’s first ask the question, what is it that managers do?
Managers Lead and Motivate Men
This is definitely the hardest piece to measure. How do we quantify that which we cannot observe? And even if we did observe it by being inside meetings and next to the skipper in the dugout, how much does this leadership matter?
It’s conventional wisdom that this aspect of the job matters a great deal and that players often improve and weaken their performance based on how well a manager motivates and leads. A good number of people in the analytic community scoff at this notion because world class, competitive athletes are already so far to the right on the distribution of talent that this type of leadership shouldn’t be terribly effective at making a noticeable difference in performance.
I tend to see a big role for leadership and motivation because this also includes communicating with players about their roles and what is expected of them. In general, this aspect of managing is important, but very hard to measure. Let’s leave this aside except to say that managers who are good leaders will get outcomes no worse than those who are bad leaders.
Managers Make Personnel Decisions
This should be much easier. Putting the right people in the right spot in the lineup and calling on the right players to pitch at the right time is a very important aspect of the job. Hitting your best hitter in the right spot is a better choice that hitting them ninth. Most in the statistical community would argue for putting your best hitter second, but we’ll setting for third until we win that war. You can also add value here by platooning the right players and giving players appropriate days off too.
On the mound, knowing when to pull your starter and knowing which reliever to use when is perhaps the place a manager can do the most good or harm.
I’d be curious to see how much an optimal lineup could improve a team over worst case lineup. But on the other hand, no manager would actually use the worst possible lineup. How many wins can be gained between optimization and ordinary? That’s the question we have to answer.
The pitching side would be tricky, but it is possible in theory. What we need is to gather leverage indexes of every plate appearances and then somehow compare those indexes to the outcomes in cases when the manager makes a move and when they don’t. This could be problematic, because managers can only make a move if they have the right personnel on the roster, but we could find a way to compare these moves to each based on the roster they have. I don’t have a formula in mind, but I think evaluating each pitching change and non-pitching change and the outcome on the next series of at bats would be the proper way to look at this if we created some sort of constant that accounted for the best a manager could do with the team he has.
Neither of these ideas are fully formed, but it should help us understand managers just by thinking about what it would look like to measure them.
In-Game Strategy
Strip out the personnel choices and managers have moves to make like calling bunts, hits-and-runs, and stolen bases. Two problems emerge. The first is obvious and unavoidable, sometimes players do these things on their own. Can’t do anything about that. Let’s move on.
The second issue is game theory. How is it that we can judge a manager based on incomplete information? If a manager thinks a stolen base is a good idea, he is weighing the likelihood of success given what he anticipates the other manager will do (pitch out, pickoff, nothing). The problem here is that if Manager A calls for a steal and it works, it might work in spite of the fact that he made a bad choice. Manager B may have called for a pitchout, but the catcher may have dropped the pitch. In this case, Manager A made the wrong call, but got the right result. How do we account for that? It’s tough.
You’re starting to see why this is so hard.
Putting it Together
So managers are leaders, make personnel choices, and make in-game strategic decisions. The first hard to measure. The second is easier, but requires a lot of complicated math. The third is pretty easy, but requires us to control for what the other manager does, which is theoretically quite problematic.
But just in thinking about these aspects, it gives us a more formal understanding of what we are looking for and allows us to better evaluate managers using the tools we do have.
Like our eyes.
I know that’s a really lame answer, but it’s a good one. Two issues emerge. The first is that I can’t watch every manager enough. I can watch my team’s manager very closely and judge him well, but I can’t watch all thirty. The second issue is objectivity. Your eyes aren’t as objective as a more math-y approach, but a math-y approach isn’t without bias.
The best way to evaluate managers, for now at least, is to think very formally about what managers do and then judge them with your eyes. We want to see managers bringing in relievers at the right times. This requires us to decide before every hitter whether or not we think he should go to the pen. We can’t judge him by saying, “I knew it!” We have to say, “he should pull his guy now,” and then see how often we are right and how often he is. We have to manage alongside him, not in retrospect.
We also need to understand strategy better by looking at Run Expectancy Matrices and considering how likely a given outcome will be and how often the managers play the high probability moves.
None of this is easy, and it is very subjective, but as my Game Theory professor says, formalizing allows us to isolate that which we are debating and allows us to have specific conversations about the items of interest to us. In English, when we decide what we are looking for before we go looking for it, we can measure our expectations against the outcomes to see if managers are getting the most out of their players.
While we probably won’t ever have a WAR for managers, this discussion will hopefully help you better judge your team’s manager. Try it out and let me know what you think. For reference, I’d say Jim Leyland is top notch at leading men, pretty good at offensive personnel, good at deciding when to pull the starter, shaky when it comes to using his bullpen, and average when it comes to in-game strategy.
Tell us what you think about grading managers by typing it on your “Hand Computers.” Bonus Points if you know from where that reference originates.
ESPN Cancels Baseball Today Podcast, No One Wins
On Monday, ESPN completed their journey toward becoming the network with the worst baseball coverage. While the quality had been deteriorating for a long time, it finally went over the edge when the powers that be cancelled ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast and replaced it with ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast.
Now the name change might not seem like something getting worked up about if you weren’t a regular listener, but I assure you the entire nature of the program was altered into something perfectly ESPN, which means it is perfectly terrible.
Baseball Today had been “on the air” for the last five years, but existed with its current roster for the last two and a half. The show was hosted by ESPN Fantasy Baseball writer Eric Karabell and co-hosted by ESPN Stats and Info researcher Mark Simon (Monday and Friday) and ESPN senior baseball/prospect analyst Keith Law (Tuesday-Thursday).
The show featured smart, analytical discussions about baseball that covered the entire league (read: not just the Yankees and Red Sox) and embraced sabermetrics and statistical analysis in addition to Law’s scouting chops. It was an excellent program for baseball fans of all stripes because it blended all kinds of baseball discussion ranging from The Ridiculous Question of the Day to analysis of market inefficiencies.
It also helped that the personalities meshed well together and were all genuine fans of the sport. They didn’t grow up as journalists, they grew up loving the sport.
Naturally, ESPN ruined it. My general complaint with ESPN’s sports coverage is that they spend too much energy focusing on uncovering “scoops” through “sources” so that they can bring you sports news first. When it comes time for analysis, they product is pretty awful. For the most part, the people they pay to comment on sports either speak only in clichés or know nothing about the thing about which they are paid to speak.
Does this sound familiar? “Player X just knows how to win. He’s one of the best players in the game, and I tell you what, in (insert league), that’s a really valuable thing.”
That’s pretty much every analyst on ESPN. There are occasional exceptions, but almost all of their coverage is reporting, speculation, and this type of analysis. And it’s just not interesting.
And this is generally what the Baseball Tonight podcast is. Buster Olney is now the host and he has his fellow BBTN colleagues on like Jayson Stark, Tim Kurkjian, and John Kruk. Don’t get me wrong, there is a big difference in buffoonery across that spectrum, but the entire show has become a “scoops” based show. It’s basically just a new forum for Olney to say, “I talked with someone at Yankees camp today and they told me this,” or “A source tells me…”
It’s not analysis, it’s just Olney reporting on stuff he hears. And then he asks people what they think about something and you get the same tired clichés you hear on BBTN.
So the podcast went from interesting analysis like Law breaking down a pitcher’s mechanical problems or Simon providing a very interesting observation about how a player performs against a certain type of pitch in a certain location to more driveling nonsense about contracts and whether or not A-Rod is a distraction.
While my distaste for this type of content is likely clear by now, I think it is important to ask a follow up question. Why did ESPN make this change when they had so much content like this already? Olney has a blog. They have the TV version of BBTN, there are countless other ESPN reporters doing TV spots with the same type of coverage. The Baseball Today podcast was the one place for the baseball fan who actually cared about smart, savvy baseball analysis and they got rid of it.
Mind you, they didn’t just add a new podcast for Olney, they cancelled the old one too. Someone at ESPN decided that it would be a better move for the network to cancel Baseball Today and replace it. I don’t get it.
Why is everyone so obsessed with sports and entertainment “scoops?” Is it so important to know all of this inside information and speculation? What do we gain from Olney having an entire podcast in addition to his writing and TV work to tell us random things people in front offices tell him?
We’d be so much better off hearing from smart people like Karabell, Law, and Simon who talk about interesting aspects of the game.
So I’m upset about this, you can tell. I wanted to write about it to criticize ESPN for being the worst network on Earth, but I also wanted to do it to let the Baseball Today cast know they put on a good show and should still be on the air. We, your listeners, will miss you.
But additionally, I have to share my thoughts about why ESPN made this move. I know they favor scoops and such over analysis, they have for a long time. But I also kind of think this was a subtle statement and punishment from the ESPN bigwigs.
A punishment for what you ask? I think this is a backlash against the Baseball Today crew for going too far into sabermetrics and supporting Trout over Cabrera in the MVP race in 2012. That may seem silly to you, given that a billion network couldn’t possibly care about something so small, but I think they did.
I think they saw their fan base get really upset at people who didn’t buy into the Triple Crown as a narrative in support of Cabrera. ESPN is a hype machine and their baseball podcast was going against the hype. They were a voice for the rational and analytical rather than the good story. I don’t think ESPN liked that at all. I think ESPN thought these guys weren’t company men because they were outside of the ESPN way of thinking, which is to develop inside access and get us scoops, and after that, follow the story we’re selling.
Now I don’t think it was so nefarious in the sense that the people who made this decision actually calculated this all out, but I think it subtlety informed their opinion of the Baseball Today podcast. This was a group of men talking about sports in a way that was very un-ESPN.
And they had to be stopped.
So they were. And Baseball Today is dead. The Bias Cat has been slaughtered for the final time and ESPN has completed its fall.
I listened to the new podcast for a week and probably won’t go back. I might try it out once games start to see if it changes at all, but it’s really mindless news headlines read aloud by ESPN’s top reporter.
And that’s the thing. Olney isn’t a bad reporter at all, it’s that a reporter shouldn’t be hosting a baseball podcast. Those of us who listen to this type of thing do it for commentary, not for news. We want to be entertained during boring points in our day (I listen on the ride home from work and while I’m at the gym). News comes in other fashion and the podcast plays on our iPods hours after its recorded, so we’ve already heard most of what Olney is reporting on through other means.
Maybe, I’m overreacting. Well, I know I am given that this is 1,300 words about a podcast, but I think the point holds up.
ESPN ruined a good thing for no reason. They could have kept the old one and launched the new one. They’re still paying all of the previous contributors to work on other things, so it’s not like this was a cost cutting move. This was a programming choice and a bad one.
Maybe this says more about how I’ve changed than it does about how they’ve changed, but I don’t think it does. Five or six years ago, almost all of my (non-live game) sports content came from ESPN. After the Baseball Today podcast died last week, exactly zero will.
Other than live games that can’t be watched anywhere else, I will not consume any ESPN content or products.
This was the network that changed everything thirty years ago, now it is utterly unwatchable.
Little Uncertainty About the Tigers Opening Day Roster, Two Spots Open
Jim Leyland said this week that 11 of the 13 spots on his roster for position players are all but locked up. Which, in turn, means that there are only two spots left for a number of candidates.
If we assume that the 11 spots belong to Avila, Pena, Martinez, Fielder, Infante, Peralta, Cabrera, Jackson, Hunter, Dirks, and Santiago then the remaining two spots will go to Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avi Garcia, Danny Worth, Don Kelly, or Jeff Kobernus. Of course someone else could have an insane spring and get into the conversation, but these six are the likely contenders.
So how should the Tigers allocate their remaining roster space?
I think it’s unlikely that Garcia makes the Opening Day roster as a reserve outfielder because the Tiger are committed to developing him and he’ll gain more from 600 minor league at bats than 250 big league ones.
From there, we should probably look to positional considerations. Worth and Kobernus can both play infield, but Worth is a better glove and based on his minor league numbers I don’t see Kobernus as offering anything extra at the plate. An important consideration, however, is that Kobernus can also play the outfield and was a rule five pick, which could push him into a Don Kelly 25th man type role from the right side of the plate. If the Tigers were going to do that, they might as well go with Kelly who is even more versatile.
The Boesch versus Berry decision depends on a number of factors. First, who is playing better? Both players have shown flashes of a skill set that can help in the majors and they both hit left handed, so whoever is swinging a hot bat will have a leg up. Boesch provides an element of power and Berry brings speed to the table but neither get on a base at a high rate and both are defensive liabilities.
If the Tigers are committed to keeping Garcia in the minors, then Boesch is the only one on this list who can bring any sort of power off the bench, but he’s also the least flexible player. He can only play corner outfield and doesn’t do it well. Berry can play center and Kobernus, Kelly, and Worth can all play three or more spots.
Given the strength of the Tigers starting group and relatively weak infield defense, I would argue on behalf of Danny Worth for spot number 12 on the roster. He plays good defense and runs well enough to pinch run late in games for Peralta, Avila, or Fielder if the time is right. He doesn’t have Berry’s game changing speed, but he runs the bases well and catches the baseball.
For spot 13, I would go with Boesch. His skill set is limited, but the Tigers won’t ask him to do more than start once a week or so. If he gets rolling, his offensive ceiling is the highest and he could provide some solid value. If he doesn’t do anything, then at least they tried and they can shift to Berry or Kelly or Kobernus who will give a move certain performance, but likely with a lower potential breakout.
I’m a big Kelly supporter because I like all of the things he can do and he’s one of the nicest people on Earth, but the Tigers need to see if they can get anything else out of Brennan Boesch before they decide to call it quits. If the Boesch experiment fails, Kelly can jump right in and play the role he’s had for the last couple seasons.
What we have to remember here is that neither of these last two players is going to see a lot of the field, so the impact of each choice is very small. Worth seems like a smart call for me because of his defensive skill and I’d go with Boesch because you might get a few weeks of greatness.
There is still plenty of camp left for this to sort itself out, but for now, I’d tell Jim Leyland to put Worth and Boesch on his list to head north and see how it goes.
How to Prepare for a Fantasy Baseball Draft
Around this time of year, serious and casual fantasy baseball players are getting ready for their preseason drafts. Fantasy sports as a whole are a billion dollar industry and one of the more popular topics of conversation for sports fans young and old. While I’m not a fantasy baseball nut, I’m a baseball fanatic and have a pretty good knowledge of what it takes to win your league.
Here are a few tips to help you prepare for your upcoming draft.
Skim the Rankings
As you’re no doubt aware, every website in the world publishes fantasy baseball rankings and many publish more than one set. I can think of as least ten non-fantasy projection systems that could also be used in a fantasy baseball context. Needless to say, there is a lot of information out there regarding how other people think players are going to perform in a given season.
But don’t pay too much attention to these rankings. For one, there is a lot of uncertainty in predicting a baseball season, so saying a player is going to be number 6 at their position is really like saying that player is most likely to be somewhere between 10th and 2nd. No ranking system, human or computer, can make precise choices for you.
Yet the rankings are great for giving you a sense of how players are most likely to perform. You want to see that the conventional wisdom is that a group of players is expected to be about equal to each other and better than a second group of players.
Use the rankings for broad decision making, but don’t get bogged down in the details, it’s a waste.
Depth Charts
There are a lot of sites that keep depth charts (MLB Depth Charts is my favorite) and you should review them. Playing time is often one of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy baseball. One of the best ways to get ahead from the beginning is to use late round draft picks on players who you think will play more than everyone else does. For example, going into 2012, Andy Dirks looked like he was going to be a part time player. But if you knew better and saw how terrible Young would be in LF defensively and how terrible Boesch would be overall, you would have known that Dirks was a buy low candidate who was going to be a big producer for the Tigers once May rolled around.
This is especially true with relief pitchers and closers. Know the players who are first in line for saves after a team’s closer. Those are great guys to target in the period immediately after a draft and early in the season. If you’re well informed about who is waiting the wings, you’ll be ready to pick them up before your opponents.
Think about Context
On this site and on many other sabermetric sites, we try to provide context neutral analysis. For example, Buster Posey was about as good as Ryan Braun last season on offense if we try to remove context factors like ballpark. However, that is the opposite of what you want to do in fantasy baseball. In real baseball analysis, we talk about how certain players are helped or hurt by ballpark and teammates. In fantasy baseball, you want to use those factors to your advantage.
In real life, Miguel Cabrera gets a lot of RBI because Austin Jackson and Andy Dirks got on base a lot and he shouldn’t get extra credit for driving in a lot of runs because he had a lot of guys on base, but in fantasy baseball you want guys like that. You want to snatch up players who are in ideal environments. Players who play in ballparks that favor their skills or who hit in a good spot in the lineup are good targets. Think about the defense behind your pitchers.
All of these context factors can help you win. Don’t pay big for Buster Posey because he’s awesome, avoid him because most people perceive him to be the best catcher in baseball even if it doesn’t translate to fantasy baseball style numbers because he plays at AT&T Park.
Have a Plan for Injuries
The best advice I can give you is to be ready for injuries. They are a simple fact of life for the fantasy sports player, but you can be ready for them. Never leave yourself without options. On the pitching side of things, this doesn’t matter much because you’re going to have many players who play the same position, but on offense, it does.
After you fill in your starting lineup, grab players who fill in according to how much it would hurt to lose your starter at that position. Grab a fourth outfielder right away because that one player can back up three spots. Try to pick up a player with multiple eligibility to back up on the corners or catcher like Mike Napoli. You don’t want to have your best player get hurt in April and have to fill that spot from the waiver wire. What you want to do is fill the void with a bench bat and have waiver player fill in on your bench.
Have a Plan, Period
The best way to have a good draft is to know what you’re going to do and know which players you like. If you get to the draft room and you’re picking first, be ready for that. Same for if you’re in the middle or if you’re at the end. Know how you want to draft based on your position. Are you going for the best player available no matter what or do you like to have a position based strategy? Do you want to grab two elite players at the same position and use them as trade bait later? Know the kind of player you are and be ready for it.
Information
Finally, the best thing you can do is know more about baseball than everyone else in the room. It may sound simple, but it will help. For example, if you know which top prospects are going to see a lot of playing time in 2013 and your opponents don’t, you have big advantage. Imagine if you had drafter Trout last year in the 14th round when most of your buddies were looking to grab him at the very end.
Any time you can know more about a player or a team, do it.
In general, prepare for your draft by being informed widely without focusing too much on fantasy baseball coverage itself. You win your league by drafting players who will over perform the expectations of the group either by playing better or by playing more than everyone else thought. Be ready for contingencies and good luck.
Feel free to post questions in the comments section unless you’re in my league, in which case, I recommend drafting Justin Masterson.
The Nine Best Third Basemen for 2013
Over the last number of Saturdays we have released our lists of The Nine best players at each position and this Saturday will be no different. Today, we unveil our list of the cream of the crop at the hot corner.
This list was actually quite easy compared to some of the others because there were seven obvious choices, leaving just two spots up for grabs. The order in the middle of the list is a bit fluid in my opinion, so don’t take it too seriously if you’re upset that your favorite player is sixth instead of fifth.
Third base is very good at the top, decent in the middle, but really falls off once we get passed the just missed portion of the list.
Apologies to: David Freese, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Jeff Keppinger, and Pablo Sandoval.
9. Mike Moustakas (Royals)
Moustakas enters his age 24 season in 2013 and has shown himself to be a very good defensive player who can hit for power. His average could be higher, but it’s not terrible for such a young player. His key flaw is relatively weak plate discipline, but I expect that to improve to some degree as he ages. Moustakas is a former top prospect who could really make a leap this season and is coming off of a 3.5 WAR season in 2012, which was, you guessed it, 9th best in all of baseball.
8. Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays)
Lawrie was off the charts incredible in his 43 games stint in the big leagues in 2011, but took a bit of a step back in an injury shortened 2012. Lawrie was a good player last year, but he wasn’t a great player. I think he can be a great player this season given that he’s shown all of the necessary tools – power, speed, defense – at some point in the last eighteen months and is only 23 years old. If he plays like he did in 2011, he’ll be in the top three on this list, but even just a little better than his performance from 2012 should put him right about here on the list.
7. Aramis Ramirez (Brewers)
Even if you don’t believe that Ramirez improved his defense last season, a .300/.360/.540 slash line is impossible to ignore. He’s put together a couple of really nice seasons in 2011 and 2012 after a two year stretch where it looked like his once promising career would be over. He’s the oldest one on this list – already 34 – but he should have a place on it for at least one more season.
6. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
When Ryan Zimmerman is healthy, he is an excellent baseball player. In seven major league seasons, he’s played a full season five times posting between a 4.4 and 7.5 WAR. In his two injury shortened years, he’s been a 2.5 WAR player. He played phenomenal defense early in his career but the injuries might be slowing that down, but injuries haven’t slowed his plate discipline and power. A fully healthy 28 year old Zimmerman could have an MVP type season, but he sits at sixth on this list because it’s getting difficult to believe he’ll be healthy all season.
5. Chase Headley (Padres)
Chase Headley is four seasons into his big league career and has seemingly improved his average and power over the last couple seasons. He is a switch hitter with good plate discipline while playing solid defense at third. The homerun numbers shot up in 2012 and with the fences coming in at Petco, he might have a shot to do it again. If last year didn’t happen, Headley would near the bottom of the list, but it did. I don’t want to put too much weight on one amazing season, but we also can’t ignore it.
4. David Wright (Mets)
Wright has an excellent season in 2012 and has had other excellent seasons in his career. My only concern with Wright is that in the three seasons prior to 2012, his defensive numbers were much worse that they were last season. I’m not sure Wright is a 7 WAR player going forward for that reason and imagine him more as a 5 WAR player for 2013. There’s nothing wrong with David Wright, but there is even less wrong with the next three on this list.
3. Adrian Beltre (Rangers)
Beltre is a great defender and hits for power in a big way. His only wart is that he doesn’t walk nearly enough. He’ll be 34 this season, but three of his best four seasons have come beyond thirty, so I’m not too worried about him falling off out of nowhere. If you want a slugger who can play defense, Beltre is a good way to go.
2. Evan Longoria (Rays)
Longoria’s career WAR/600 PA is 6.5. The only negative thing you can say about Longoria is that he’s only played two full seasons, two other seasons of 120-135 games, and one half season. He’s an elite defender who hits for power and has a great eye at the plate. Oh, and he’s 27. So there’s prime left in his career and has signed two of the most team friendly deals in MLB history. If you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of what he does.
1. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
If offense was the only thing that mattered here, Cabrera would be the only one near the top of this list. He’s easily the top offensive third baseman in baseball and has been remarkably consistent entering his age 30 season. On defense, he’s no star, but he proved last year he could handle the position well enough to make it work. His best three seasons have been his last three and boasts a career line of .318/.395/.561. That’s probably all that needs to be said.
Sound off in the comments section or to call into your local sports talk radio station and scream at them. Not about this list, but just in general.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 10-1
Over the last two days, SABR Toothed Tigers has released our 2013 MLB Preseason Power Rankings 30-21 and 20-11. Today, we complete the series and take you all the way through number one.
Remember, this list is designed to represent the expected performance of each team in 2013, but not necessarily the win totals of each team. For example, I project the Red Sox to be a better team than the Pirates but I expect the Pirates to win more games as a function of their league, division, and better relationship with an almighty deity than the team from Boston. Check back tomorrow for my Preseason Standings Prediction.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are a very deep team with talent at about every position. The middle infield is a bit iffy going forward but those are two of the less important offensive positions and the rest of their lineup more than makes up for it. The rotation is a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters and the bullpen has a lot of exciting pieces. Nothing about the Cardinals makes me say “wow!” but everything about them makes me think they’re a very good team. I also can’t ignore the incredible comebacks/magic/voodoo/etc of the last two seasons. It’s usually not right to expect weird things to keep happening like that, but I’m not really looking to tempt fate.
9. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an interesting team because I can talk myself into a lot of different places on this list for them. Probably more so than any other team expect the Dodgers. They added Josh Hamilton, but lost Torii Hunter who was worth more than Hamilton in 2012. They’ll have an everyday role for Peter Bourjos who is among the very best defensive players walking the Earth and Albert Pujols likely won’t struggle as much as he did last April in any month of 2013. In just looking at the offense and defense, I would imagine the Angels should be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. But the pitching looks a lot worse. Jered Weaver should be the same as always and CJ Wilson likely won’t improve upon his 2012 numbers because he simply isn’t that good. After them, instead of Greinke or Haren, you have Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, and stuff. This rotation is pretty good if you want to win 80 games, but I think it’s awful if you want to win 95 like the Angels do. This team has the best player in the league (Trout), the best player of his era (Pujols), and a player with an impossibly high ceiling (Hamilton), but I just can’t bring myself to bet any higher on them with such a suspect pitching staff.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays did excellent work this offseason adding Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, and others. They are a much better team than they were in 2012 and could also get a full season from Jose Bautista. Even with expected regression from Edwin Encarnacion, this should be a team that scores runs and pitches well. I think they’ll be right in the thick of the AL East race and should also contend for a wild card. My reservations about placing them higher deal with a lot of injury question marks. Bautista is recovering from a wrist injury and hand and wrist injuries tend to have a negative effect on power. I’m not saying he’ll have a down season, but I think it’s more likely than it was before he got hurt. Additionally, while I think Josh Johnson is fantastic, he is also very fragile. Who knows what Melky Cabrera can do without the help of PEDs? Brandon Morrow missed significant time last season. Something was obviously wrong with Ricky Romero, right? So while on paper this is a talented team with a great chance at October baseball, there are concerns large enough to keep them at number eight.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants return an excellent pitching staff and good defensive club. A full season of Scutaro and Pence should be a marginal improvement, but losing the great “wind-aided” performance of Melky Cabrera will hurt with no clear replacement lined up. If Pablo Sandoval is healthy and Brandon Belt is allowed to do his thing without interference from a silly manager, this team should be on par with last year’s division winning club. It’s a good bullpen and the park tends to work in favor of the team’s design, so I’m willing to bet the Buster Posey led Giants are making another deep run into the postseason.
6. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should have no trouble winning the NL Central if they are able to remain as healthy as their counterparts. They have the amazing Joey Votto at first and an average to above average player pretty much everywhere. They rotation remained perfectly intact last year and Aroldis Chapman is coming to help them out even more in 2013. With the addition of Choo, the maturing of Cozart and Fraizer, and the continued success of Bruce and Phillips, I can’t really see a glaring whole other than defense in centerfield. This is an all-around good club.
5. Texas Rangers
A lot of people are down on the 2013 Rangers because they didn’t sign or trade for any of their big offseason targets, but I think that means they’re very underrated. If we look at the 2012 Rangers as a pretty true 93 win club who had a bad week at the end, when we compare them to the 2013 version, they hold up great. The pitching should be essentially the same with perhaps a better performance by the adapting Darvish. On offense, they dropped Michael Young’s negative WAR at DH for Lance Berkman and will return everyone else except Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt can easily combine with Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin to approximate the ~4WAR season of Josh Hamilton and AJ Pierzynski steps in to replace Napoli who had a down year on a team that won 93 games. While it can be said that the Rangers missed out on getting a lot better, they also failed to really get worse. This is the overlooked team of the year if you’re into making those types of wagers.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves added a lot this offseason (see: Uptons, all) but they also lost a good amount in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. I like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman to breakout in compliment with Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The starting pitching is deep and the bullpen is second to none. The Braves aren’t the most exciting team in the league to me, but I think they have the highest floor. It’s hard for me to imagine them having much worse than an upper 80s win season.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
I’m higher on the Rays than most because I’ve seen them over-perform too many times not to believe. Their starting pitching is in the top five and their bullpen always works. They’ve added Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar on offense and are hoping for a full season of Evan Longoria to go with the soon to be called up Wil Myers. Top to bottom, the Rays are probably in the 6-10 range as far as talent goes, but they are so well run from top to bottom, that they will get more out of that talent than the other teams on this list.
2. Detroit Tigers
The 2012 Tigers underperformed and won 88 games. In 2013, they will add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and a full season of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They lost nothing of substance from the roster should get at least modest bounce back seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. That is all by way of saying, it’s hard to see how they aren’t one of the surest bets in the league for 2013. 90 wins should be safe and 95-100 is a real possibility given the level of competition they face. They own baseball’s best rotation 1-5 and their only weaknesses are infield defense questions and bullpen uncertainty. And almost everyone has bullpen uncertainty so I can’t really hold that against them. Looking at the Tigers on paper, it’s hard to see how the defending AL champs won’t get a shot to play in October once more.
1. Washington Nationals
The Nationals earn this spot through logic similar to that which put the Tigers at number two. They added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Haren and lost only Edwin Jackson. With an unlimited Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper, there isn’t an argument to be made that the Nats got worse for 2013. Granted, any team can collapse and underperform, but there is no reason to think the Nationals are any more likely to do so than any other team on this list. If the Nationals stay as healthy as their competitors in 2013, they should once again be baseball’s best team.
Tell us what you thought of the 2013 Preseason Power Rankings series in the comments, on Twitter, on Facebook, or via the United States Postal Service. Check back tomorrow for STT’s projected standings.
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