2012 Season in Review: Texas Rangers
93-69, 2nd in the AL West, 1st Wild Card
Lost in the Play-in Game
These are things to know about the Rangers. They ran away with the division and then tripped over September and found themselves losing it on the final day of the season. At which point, they played in the inaugural play-in game and lost. So it was all over pretty quickly. Josh Hamilton started fast and cratered. So everyone is kind of thinking the Rangers time has passed, but I’m not so sure it’s over.
Adrian Beltre (6.5) led the way and Josh Hamilton (4.4), Elvis Andrus (4.2), David Murphy (4.0), Ian Kinsler (3.2), Craig Gentry (2.9), and Mike Napoli (2.0) had his back. Texas is a good place to hit, but we should also not confuse that fact with the fact that they employ very good hitters.
Yu Darvish (5.1) and Matt Harrison (3.8) combined for one of the more interesting two headed rotation monsters, but it worked pretty well. Scott Feldman (2.3) and Colby Lewis (2.0) weren’t slouches either. Derek Holland at 1.7 WAR, was a bit of a slouch though. The bullpen was pretty solid too.
Overall, this was a good team who lost it at the worst possible time. They won 93 games, they just probably should have won one more. There isn’t much to say other than that.
Going into next year, I like them as an overlooked club. They lost Hamilton, but they have a good enough platoon in center to keep them only a couple wins worse and I like what Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar can add in. Not to mention Lance Berkman. This is still a deep team. The Angels are the sexy pick and the Athletics are still a menace, but I like the Rangers to bounce back.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection : 91-71
2012 Season in Review: Los Angeles Angels
89-73, 3rd in the AL West
Let’s talk about the Angels. In order to perform better, they signed Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson to big contracts of different degrees before the 2012 season. Wilson didn’t pitch that well. Pujols struggled early and eventually ended up having a good for most people kind of season. They probably should have been a playoff type team, but instead came in third in their own division. Oh, and there was this Mike Trout fellow too. It was a busy year.
Seven players topped 2.0 WAR and helped the offense get the team on track led by Mike Trout (10.0) and backed up by Torii Hunter (5.3), Albert Pujols (3.9), Erick Aybar (3.4), Howie Kendrick (2.8), Alberto Callaspo (2.7), and Mark Trumbo (2.4). It was a good offense, especially in the sense that they didn’t give a lot of at-bats to any player who was really bad. That might seem easy to do, but the lots of clubs gave 300 plus at bats to replacement level guys.
On the mound, the Angels disappointed. Jered Weaver (3.0) an CJ Wilson (2.5) were the only guys to top 2.0, but the Zach Greinke (1.8 in 13 starts) trade did help. What didn’t help, was Ervin Santana (-0.9). Yup, that’s a minus sign. He made 30 starts.
This was a team that should have pitched better and pitched them into the playoffs. That didn’t happen and they ended up missing by four games. They started slow and never recovered.
But there was Mike Trout. He was baseball’s best player in 2012 and it was hard not to enjoy that. He’ll have company in 2013 because the Angels added Josh Hamilton on a big contract and revamped their pitching staff. They didn’t necessarily do it well, but they gave it a shot.
But they lost Hunter and Greinke and Haren. So that might be a wash. At any rate, this is a good team, but I’m not sure it’s a great one.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 89-73
2012 Season in Review: Seattle Mariners
75-87, 4th in the AL West
Welp, Mariners. There is one great player on this team who had an amazing year and threw a perfect game. The rest of the team was pretty meh, and while the farm system is interesting, the future still isn’t now.
Just three position players topped 2.0 WAR, Kyle Seager (3.6), John Jaso (2.7), and Michael Saunders (2.3), for the 2012 Mariners and none of them were star level good. Brendan Ryan should also be acknowledged for being awesome on defense at shortstop, because well, he’s pretty freaking good.
Kevin Millwood (2.0) was one of two pitchers on the club to hit the magic 2.0 threshold. I don’t really want to talk about him or the ones who didn’t measure up, I want to talk about the one who exceed that number by a lot. Felix Hernandez (6.1) was awesome. He threw a perfect game and he pitched in near Verlander level fashion. Wow. Worth the price of admission.
Top to bottom this isn’t a great club. But I like some of their pieces. With some exciting prospects on their way and some slugging low risk players coming off other teams’ scrap heaps, 2013 could be better, but at least it shouldn’t be worse.
Ultimately, this is a team with a window to win coming, but they aren’t there yet. When they get going in that direction a little faster, their Season Recap will be more exciting.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 76-86
The Book on Miguel Cabrera
What People Think
So this should be pretty easy. The prevailing opinion on Cabrera is that he is among the best hitters in baseball. It is, in fact, that simple. Cabrera is no magician with the glove and he’s not fleet of foot, but he is a supremely talented hitter who does an adequate job at third base for someone who is better suited to play first.
What the Numbers Say
The numbers tell a story about Miguel Cabrera, and boy is it a doozy. I think the best way to demonstrate what his numbers say about him is this:
Here are three stat lines.
1) 37HR, 85R, 127RBI, .292/.349/.537
2) 33HR, 101R, 118RBI, .318/.395/.561
3) 44HR, 109R, 139RBI, .330/.393/.606
The first line is a representation of his worst big league season. The second is his average career line. The third was 2012. So what the numbers tell you is that Miguel Cabrera is at worst, an all-star caliber player, on average an MVP level player, and at best, a Hall of Fame type player.
What My Eyes Tell Me
I don’t think there’s any question that Cabrera is among the best hitters in the game. You can tell that by watching him or looking at his numbers or listening to anyone who knows anything.
What I see in Cabrera is an extraordinary talent driven by brute strength and exceptional hand eye coordination. Cabrera hits baseballs as hard and as purely as anyone I think I’ve ever seen in person. Everyone knows about his light-tower type power, but I’m more amazed by his ability to put force behind difficult pitches and shoot them between fielders for base hits. He seems capable of recognizing pitches a fraction of a second earlier than most anyone and he uses that to his advantage. Obviously he guesses wrong sometimes, but he’s among the best in the game at pitch recognition and reaction to said recognition. It shows.
On the bases, I actually think he’s pretty good at taking extra bases for someone who is as slow as he is. He knows what he’s doing, even if he can’t always capitalize on it. In the field, his arm is superb and his hands are good enough to play for me at third. His range is iffy, but I think his shortcomings are somewhat overstated. He’s not great, but I don’t think he’s terrible. In fact, I thought he was on his way to becoming a very good first baseman before the position change, so I can’t give him too much grief about not being an elite defender.
The Dotted Line
Cabrera’s contract runs through the 2015 season and will pay him $21M in 2013 and $22M in 2014-15. He’s certainly earning the 8 year, $153 deal he signed before 2008 considering the cost of a long term deal these days. The Tigers should be in no hurry to extend him as he is signed through his age 32 season, three years away. If he performs at a similar level for the next couple seasons, he could easily break the bank, but it’s too early to go there.
He’s a perennial MVP contender on a team dedicated to winning, and could easily be on his way to a Hall of Fame career. Those are generally the players who try to keep in your uniform for their entire careers, but the time for that discussion is later.
Hypothetically, if he was a free agent right now, I don’t think 10 years, $280M+ would be out of the question at all. If the Tigers were looking to extend him, say another five years, the price would easily be in the $150M+ range.
Fantasyland
If you play fantasy baseball, draft him in the top five. He does everything at an elite level expect steal bases and is among the game’s most consistent performers. Draft him.
The Lead
Miguel Cabrera is one of the game’s best hitters and remains in his prime. We’re probably in for several more elite seasons and potentially a Hall of Fame plaque. He’s not the game’s best defender and he has a history of off the field issues (that we hope are over), but in spite of all of that, he’s probably one of the most valuable players in the game today.
2012 Season in Review: American League East
What most consider baseball’s toughest division was tough this year as well. The Yankees led the way and the Orioles played out of their minds. The Rays won 90 games. The Sox were bad. The Blue Jays built well in the offseason.
Final Standings:
Playoff Odds across time:
Early 2013 Projected Standings:
2012 Grades:
AL East Cy Young: David Price
AL East MVP: Robinson Cano
The Nine Best Second Baseman for 2013
Over the last two weeks we’ve revealed our nine best catchers and first basemen for 2013 and today we’re talking about those who man the keystone sack. This was a surprisingly tough group to rank because there are a lot of similar players in this crop. As with the catchers and first basemen, I’m thinking about 2013 only.
Note: Ben Zobrist is considered an OF for 2013 by STT.
9. Dustin Ackley (Mariners)
A look at Mr. Ackley’s 2012 numbers might not breathe life into his candidacy here, but there is a lot to like. His minor league numbers suggest he has the ability to get on a base at a high level and could easily be a 15+HR player, especially with the fences coming in at Safeco. Additionally, his defense, while originally a question seems to be playing at the big league level. Entering his age 25 season, I like this as a breakout year for the former top prospect.
8. Jason Kipnis (Indians)
I’ve seen a lot of Kipnis in the AL Central over the last two seasons and his minor league numbers also support the fact that he has a good command of the strikezone and can hit for power. I expect him to be a top five or six offensive second basemen in 2013 entering his age 26 season, but his defense will hold him back on this list a little bit. He’s not a huge liability, but he is far from great with the glove.
7. Neil Walker (Pirates)
Walker enters his age 27 season in 2013 and has confirmed his ability to walk at a league average or better pace while putting up 15-20 homeruns a season from the second base position. That should be good enough to make any list of this nature when combined with solid defense. If we take the past as a predictor, Walker belongs somewhere near the bottom third of this list. But, I’m pegging Walker for a power breakout in 2013 and expect him to be close to 20-25 homeruns, which should shoot his value north. And, being a switch hitter who is brother-in-law to Don Kelly doesn’t hurt either.
6. Brandon Phillips (Reds)
This may seem a tad low for @datdudeBP, but I’ve always found him to be a tad overrated. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a very good player, but there are facets of his game that bother me. First, he’s entering his age 32/33 season, which means he’s not likely to improve on his past performances, even if he can sustain them. While he hits for power as well as almost any second baseman around, his extremely low walk rate (4.5% in 2012, 5.8% for his career) really bothers me. Driving in runs is important, but you need to put yourself on base so someone can drive you in as well. His defense is often raved about, but I’m more skeptical than most in that regard. The metrics put him firmly above average to great, but he makes a lot of hotdog plays (behind the back, between the legs) that he doesn’t have to make. He’s a showman and as his physical skills decline with age, I think that will bite him. Phillips is a very good player, but he has a couple holes that are two big to ignore.
5. Ian Kinsler (Rangers)
Kinsler was a tough one to place for me. He is consistently above 20 homeruns and a league average or better walker. He limits strikeouts. He steals bases. The batting average is on the low side of average. The defense is viewed well, but I’m not a huge fan of it. But he is also going to turn 32 this season and he might not get to play second base for the whole season with Jurickson Profar, baseball’s number one prospect, waiting in the wings. I thought about all of these factors and thought fifth made sense. He’s definitely no higher than fourth and no lower than sixth, so I did the lazy thing and put him in the middle of those two.
4. Aaron Hill (Diamondbacks)
This could go a lot of different ways. Aaron Hill was phenomenal in 2012. He was a top tier second baseman in every way. No doubt. But in 2011 he was a mess. A giant mess. In 2010, he hit for power but with no average. In 2009, he was excellent. So this has a wide distribution of possibilities, but I’m betting on the top end. I think it’s safe to say the power is for real, it’s just a question of if he can hit enough for it to show up. I think that he can. If you take out 2010-11, his average is pretty stable between .270 and .300. If I let myself believe that he has gotten himself straightened out, I can easily talk myself into another good year. Probably not another 6.2 WAR, but to put himself fourth on this list, I’m only asking for 4.5 WAR or so. His defense has also generally been slightly above average and I don’t see any reason why that can’t continue. I’m bullish on Aaron “Two Cycle” Hill.
3. Dustin Pedroia (Red Sox)
I don’t have a bad thing to say about Dustin Pedroia. He hits and hits for power. He steals bases and plays superb defense. Going into his age 29 season, he should be one of the top second basemen in the game and could easily be the best. He also gives hope to small human beings everywhere.
2. Robinson Cano (Yankees)
I would imagine I’m in the minority in placing Cano anywhere but first on my list, but I have good reason. Cano is a very good hitter. High average and power, but a somewhat pedestrian walk rate. Even in his most patient years, he’s only league average. His defensive numbers are very scattered. Some years he’s great, some he’s terrible. I lean more toward the latter. I actually think Cano is below average in the field, but gets good marks from some because he rarely makes boneheaded plays, so he always looks good even when a ball is getting past him. He’s an excellent player and is very durable, but he’s not the guy who I think will be the best in 2013.
1. Chase Utley (Phillies)
My view that Utley will be the best second baseman in baseball in 2013 is predicated on his ability to stay healthy. If he can do that, I have no doubt he’s the best player on this list. But he hasn’t played a full season since 2009, so I am going out on a proverbial limb here. But let’s say Mr. Utley can stay on the field, consider what he can do. He hits for average, hits for power, has a good eye, runs the bases well, and plays excellent defense. If you look at his numbers year by year, the only complaint you can make is that for the last three seasons, he hasn’t played enough games. When he plays, he is very good. When he plays healthy, he is incredible. Now I know he’s 34 and likely past his peak, but I’m buying into one more great year from a great player. From 2005-2009, the list of players to accumulate more WAR than Utley is short. It has one name: Pujols. So while his best days may be behind him, his best days are better than anyone on this list for me. And I’m banking on one more great season.
Sound off on this list in the comments section and share your own!
2012 Season in Review: New York Yankees
95-67, 1st in the AL East
Lost in the ALCS to the Tigers
When the season ended on the 3rd of October, no American League club had won more games than the one that plays in the Bronx. They then faced off against the upstart Orioles in the ALDS and survived in five games on the back of Raul Ibanez. It was, at this point, that their season fell apart. Granted, only three teams made it further.
The offensive contingent followed Robinson Cano (7.8 WAR) and filled in around Nick Swisher (3.9), Derek Jeter (3.2), Mark Teixeira (2.9), Curtis Granderson (2.6), Russell Martin (2.2), and Alex Rodriguez (2.2). The failed to register a starter level player only in left field and DH and that was pretty close.
The top of the rotation was very good with C.C. Sabathia (4.9) and Hiroki Kuroda (3.9), but was shaky below either from poor performance or injury. A few good bullpen pieces helped out and they managed to shut things down even with Mariano Rivera.
The Yankees had a good season, but left the stage with a bad taste in their mouths. A-Rod was benched and Cano set a record for most consecutive outs made in a postseason. And that was only the beginning.
The offseason has been rocky. Jeter is recovering from a broken ankle and A-Rod will miss the whole season and has new steroid issues to deal with. The Yankees lost Swisher. They got outbid on Russell Martin by the Pirates. They’re working to get under next year’s luxury tax, so they aren’t spending big.
It’s hard to even recognize them. But they are the Yankees, so they’re make it work to some extent. They’re certainly no longer a juggernaut, but they have resources and savvy. 2013 will be rocky, but it won’t be a mess
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 87-75
2012 Season in Review: Baltimore Orioles
93-69, 2nd in the AL Central, Wild Card #2
Lost in the ALDS to the Yankees
Here’s the thing about the Orioles, they were not supposed to win this many games. If you asked 100 baseball experts entering the 2012 season to rank the 14 AL clubs by how many wins they would achieve during the season, I can’t imagine more than five would have them any better than 10th. But, the funny thing about baseball is that the Orioles won the fourth most games in the AL in 2012. Fourth!
Lots of mean, rational people tried to rain on their parade the whole time. I am among the guilty in this regard. You see, the Orioles were winning in magical ways. They had a ridiculously good record in one run games and extra inning games and they didn’t score more runs than they allowed until like August. They were, by every measure, over performing.
Don’t get me wrong, I love over performing. It’s exciting and it’s fun. But over performing rarely lasts and often the other shoe drops. The Pirates may have something to add to this discussion if you are interested. But the beautiful thing about the 2012 Orioles is that they never stopped over performing. They made the playoffs even though they weren’t playing the best. The lucked themselves in. I don’t say that derisively, I say that as a matter of fact. Normally, baseball teams who play like the Orioles did in 2012 don’t sustain that performance. They did. It was fun.
The offense was led by Adam Jones (4.6 WAR) and Matt Wieters (4.1) and supported by J.J. Hardy (2.8) and Chris Davis (2.1). They had help from a lot of platoons and part time players, but the only players who sustained starter level production are the four listed above.
The starting pitching wasn’t impressive, but it was okay. Jason Hammel (2.9 in 20 starts) set the pace and Wei-Yin Chen (2.2) held his own. No other pitcher made more than 20 starts and no starter made it above 1.6 WAR. That’s not usually how you draw it up.
But, then there was the bullpen. Jim Johnson, Darren O’Day, and Pedro Strop anchored an excellent bullpen, and a bullpen that was well-used by their manager. These gentleman are the reason the Orioles held so many close leads.
So it was a lucky year for the Orioles, but that doesn’t make it less than great. They were a contender wire to wire and made the playoffs for the first time since 1997. They won the inaugural AL Wild Card game and pushed the Yankees to the brink in the ALCS. All in all, it was a brilliantly successful season for a club that had no business being brilliantly successful.
The 2013 version of the team is due for regression mostly because lighting rarely strikes twice, which is what makes lighting so exciting and powerful. Also, they didn’t take steps to upgrade the roster in any meaningful way. With some excellent prospects coming and a respectable core, the Orioles are nobody’s punching bag anymore. But they also aren’t the big man on campus, either.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 85-77
2012 Season in Review: Tampa Bay Rays
90-72, 3rd in the AL East
When a team wins 90 games with a Save-A-Lot level budget, it’s hard to be disappointed. But the Rays have turned winning with limited resources into an art form. They can’t get away with pretty good anymore, so third place is third place.
Jack of all trades Ben Zobrist led the way (5.9 WAR) and his teammates Desmond Jennings (3.5), B.J. Upton (3.3), Jeff Keppinger (2.8), and Evan Longoria (2.4 in 74 games) had his back. No other position players made it to 2.0 WAR, but darn it all, Matt Joyce (1.8) came close.
But the pitching, oh my, the pitching. Cy Young winner David Price (5.1) was obviously the staff ace, but he was flanked on all sides but one of the best support staffs around. James Shields (4.3), Matt Moore (2.3), and Alex Cobb (2.2) performed well and Jeremy Hellickson (1.0), who WAR hates, performed pretty well at a 3.10 ERA even if he shouldn’t have.
Also, the Rays had two relievers top 2.0 WAR. RELIEVERS! 2 WAR! Fernando Rodney (2.4) and Jack McGee (2.0) dominated, and Wade Davis and Joel Peralta both hit 1.0 on their own. Man, that bullpen was good.
So the Rays, if one of baseball’s toughest divisions, were really good and won 90 games. They could have used a little more production from first base and the half a year at third base that Longoria missed, but you can’t really ask for much more. Two more wins against the Orioles and they were playing in October.
And the Rays show no signs of stopping. They restocked the farm by taking everyone in the Royals farm system and they filled in holes in the lineup. Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson both have question marks, but they have high upside for low risk contracts.
I’m a big believer in the Rays formula and a full season of Longoria and more Joe Maddon magic should keep the Rays in contention. Very much in contention if you ask me. The fans might not show up and the stadium might be a dive, but they play baseball better than most.
2012 Grade: B
Early 2013 Projection: 92-70
2012 Season in Review: Toronto Blue Jays
73-89, 4th in the AL East
The Blue Jays didn’t have a great season in 2012, but man have they had a great offseason in 2012. Only 73 wins during the season isn’t enough to be good, but taking everyone from the Marlins and R.A. Dickey from the Mets is enough for a winning offseason.
The 2012 version was led by Edwin Encarnacion (4.4) and backed up by Jose Bautista (3.2 WAR in 92 games) and Brett Lawrie (2.9). No other position player topped the 2.0 starter threshold. But the cavalry is coming.
On the pitching side, it was worse. Only Brandon Morrow’s 2.4 WAR in 21 starts was anything worth mentioning. No other starter had a 1.0 WAR. That’s really bad.
But like I said, the important part of the Blue Jays’ 2012 was the part after the season was over. Here is an incomplete list of players who are now Blue Jays that were not Blue Jays during 2012: Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio, and Melky Cabrera.
That’s a big improvement on the previous version of the Jays. Even if those guys don’t perform at their peak potential, that’s at least ten wins in the standings, but it’s probably closer to fifteen.
With the Sox in rebuilding mode and the Yankees working to reduce payroll, this was a great shot for the Jays to join the Rays and the Orioles as the AL East party crashers.
So they’ll be a lot better in 2013, especially if you factor in a healthy Bautista, but I’m not buying them as favorites. Just like the Dodgers, they’re much better, but they aren’t a lock at all. I think the pitching staff will be a lot better, but I think the offense won’t be as great as a lot of analysts think.
But that’s just my gut feeling. On paper, they look like a real contender. For me, they’re still the third best team in that division and not that much better than the Sox and O’s.
2012 Grade: D
Early 2013 Projection: 86-76
New English D 