The Morning Edition (June 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8, gave up 2 ER, had 13 K and left with the lead. He didn’t get the win. The guy who blew the save did.
- Matt Moore does a Matt Moore impression with 11 K and 6 BB, wins
- The Red Sox score 11 without a HR
- Ichiro walks off as Darvish and Kuroda are ordinary
- Casilla hit as many homeruns as Chris Davis, 1 each
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix faces the Pirates (330p Eastern)
- Zimmermann takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Cole Hamels against the Padres (10p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Lincecum (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Come on guys, can we leave Chris Sale alone?
Seriously, I want to discredit the win stat too, but can it not keep happening to the same guy. But. BUT! Let’s play a game regarding Astros pitcher Erik Bedard. Let’s explore his ERA and FIP by month:
He’s getting a lot better each month. This is good news. I bet he’s striking out more batters than he was at the beginning of the season.
Oh. Well. I bet he’s walking fewer people!
Well he is, but he’s still walking and awful lot of people. Hmmm, this is tricky. Maybe it’s because he is allowing fewer homeruns?
Yeah, that’s probably it. Sorry, Bedard this probably isn’t sustainable!
The Morning Edition (June 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Blue Jays finally lost after winning 11 straight
- There were four games, you don’t need me for this. Here are all the scores and boxes.
What I’m Watching Today:
- Darvish versus Kuroda at Yankees Stadium (7p Eastern)
- One of the only reasons to watch the Marlins, Jose Fernandez takes the hill (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Sale (8p Eastern)
- The surprisingly impressive Jeff Locke faces the Mariners (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, are the Jays back in this?
A week ago, I questioned if the Blue Jays were buried despite recent success and they didn’t lose from that point until yesterday. They are back in it. Which gave me a new threshold for determining whether or not a team is or is not out of it. I heard someone else spout this idea, so I’m not taking credit for it, I’m merely buying into it. If a team is a good two week stretch away from being in contention, they aren’t out of it. I think this is a good barometer for teams thinking about selling at the deadline and that kind of thing. If we play our best baseball right now for two weeks, would we be in this race? That’s how I’m going to start thinking about the standings. Although, I make it a rule not to spend much time looking at the standings until after the break. But hey, that’s soon.
The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
The Morning Edition (June 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wright homers twice, but the Mets lose Niese in win against the Braves
- Longoria’s 2 HR lift the Rays over the Yanks
- Zimmermann dominates the Rockies, but Oswalt gets 11 K of his own as Nats win 5-1
- Pena walks off on the Crew in 10
- Another Puig HR
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg looks to build on a solid first start back (7p Eastern)
- Cole goes to LA to face Weaver (10p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces similarly named Clayton Richard (10p Eastern)
- Colon and Iwakuma (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who would you honor with the NL All-Star start?
There are a number of good candidates depending on what statistics you value:
WAR:
Wainwright, Harvey, Lee, and Kershaw
FIP:
Harvey, Wainwright, Miller, Kershaw, Lee
ERA:
Kershaw, Locke (!), Miller, Harvey, Corbin, Wainwright, Zimmermann
K/9:
Miller, Burnett, Samardjiza, Harvey, Lynn
Wins (LOL!):
Wainwright, Lee, Corbin, Zimmermann, Lynn, and Marquis
Wainwright is probably having the best season, but I’d be completely happy with Harvey given that the game is at Citi Field and he’s one of the game’s brightest young stars. Kershaw, Lee, and Miller are all very deserving as well. Right now, I’d go with Waino or Harvey. You?
The Morning Edition (June 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bruce ties it in the 9th and Phillips wins it in the 13th as the Reds beat the Bucs 2-1
- Myers drives in his first two to lead the Rays over the Sox
- Medlen shuts down the Mets
- Papelbon allows the Nats to tie it in the 9th, Suzuki delivers a GS in the 11th
- Yanks and Dodgers split a DH
What I’m Watching Today:
- Oswalt returns to the bigs with the Rockies against Zimmermann (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Pettitte at Yankees stadium (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez faces the Angels (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- After 8 straight wins, are the Blue Jays getting back in this?
I’m doubtful despite the hot streak. Despite 8 straight wins, they are still 7.5 games back of first place and 4.5 back of the second wild card. That isn’t a number too big to overcome, but the problem is how many teams are between them and their goal. To make up the terrible start, they would have to outplay at least two other teams the rest of the way plus the distance they are already back. I’m not sure they are good enough. Fangraphs’ own standings projection is equally skeptical of the Jays, figuring them for 82 wins. New English D has them at 83 wins, and I feel pretty good about that. One week in June isn’t enough to convince me the first 10 weeks didn’t happen.
The Morning Edition (June 19, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harvey flirts with a no-no, Ks 13 and Wheeler goes 6 scoreless to sweep the DH
- The Sox sweep the Rays in a DH as Gomes walks off
- Goldy walks off in the desert
- Sweeney and Ranson homer to beat Wainwright
- Parker out does Darvish, despite 10 K
- Lee dazzles again
What I’m Watching Today:
- Ryu and Kuroda in NY (1p Eastern)
- Fernandez faces Cahill at Chase Field (330p Eastern)
- Chris Sale gets the Twins after the hardest of luck losses last time (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What Tuesday a glimpse into the Mets future?
Matt Harvey pulled into a WAR tie with league leader Adam Wainwright after their starts on Tuesday at 3.8 after a great start featuring 13 K. He has a 2.04 FIP and a nearly 5:1 K:BB ratio. I don’t like to make big proclamations like this, but he’s probably the under 25 pitcher to watch if we’re thinking about who are going to be the game’s best in the next four or five seasons. But his rotation mate was strong too, as far as strikeouts and run prevention go. The walks were a bit of an issue, but Wheeler is young and should improve. I like the Mets rotation, now only if they could play OF on their off days. And if you’re like me and enjoy this kind of thing, here’s what they did on Tuesday:
The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
- Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
- Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
- Freeman walks off on the Giants
- The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
- Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
- Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
- CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
- Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup?
So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…
The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
- Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
- Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
- Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
- Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
- Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
- The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
- Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
- Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?
Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star.
The Morning Edition (June 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright and Harvey don’t disappointed, combining for 14 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 3 BB, and 13 K as the Cards win 2-1
- The Cubs walk off the Reds in 14
- Parker and Kuroda pitch to a draw, the A’s win in 18
- Cain gives the Giants 6.2 scoreless as they beat the Pirates
- Tulo likely facing a “lengthy absence” after breaking rib
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore tries to avoid being dropped from the Appointment Television list against the Royals (7p Eastern)
- Westbrook comes of the DL to face Fernandez (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Medlen in ATL (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe our marquee matchup last night lived up to the hype?
After yesterday’s duel, Adam Wainwright (4.0) and Matt Harvey (3.3) are 1st and 3rd in pitcher WAR, only separated by Anibal Sanchez (3.4). In fact, Wainwright and Harvey are the only two pitchers in the top five who don’t play for the Tigers. It is perhaps worth noting that Wainwright and Harvey are excellent examples as to why the pitcher wins statistic is not useful for evaluating performance. Wainwright has a 2.18 ERA and 1.78 FIP. Harvey has a 2.04 ERA and 2.15 FIP. Harvey leads in K/9, Wainwright leads in BB/9 and HR/9, but both are great in each category. By all reasonable accounts, Wainwright and Harvey are two of the top few pitchers in the league. But Wainwright is 10-3 and Harvey is 5-1. Among the pitchers with more wins than Harvey is Jason Hammel, who features a 5.24 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 0.4 WAR. Pitcher won-loss record is nonsense.
And now, because they’re awesome:
The Morning Edition (June 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Dbacks and Dodgers trade serious beanballs, brawl in LA, many suspensions to come
- Cole goes 6.1 in his MLB debut as the Pirates beat the Giants
- The Jays tie it in the 9th and win it in the 10th against the White Sox
- Kluber goes 8 to end the Indians’ skid
- Cingrani and the Reds unload on Garza and the Cubs
- Stanton homers in the 8th to avoid spoiling Turner’s strong outing
- Rays shell Lester
- Harang CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller goes to Citi Field (7p Eastern)
- Corbin and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
- Bonderman gets the Astros in Seattle (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, no hard feelings between the Dodgers and Dbacks?
Hardly the case. Greinke hit Ross early in the game (not intentional at all), but things heated up when Kennedy hit Puig in the 6th and Greinke retaliated by hitting Montero in the 7th. Greinke came to the plate in the 7th and Kennedy hit him in the head, precipitating a massive bench clearing brawl that featured grown men tackling each other and punches being thrown. I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need to curtail this type of behavior in baseball. I wasn’t watching the game, so I don’t know which pitch was the one that started it, but everyone carries some blame for keeping it going. I hope MLB suspends everyone involved because there is just no place for this in the game. Intentional beaning is dangerous and childish, especially when it’s up around the head, but it’s even more ridiculous for adults to run onto the field and start fighting. I have no problem with certain members of the teams coming out to talk and yell about it, but it’s not appropriate to settle these things with violence. If this happened somewhere other than the field of play, there would be arrests. It reflects poorly on the sport, even if people enjoy it.
New English D 