How Was The Game? (August 3, 2013)
Another pleasure.
Tigers 3, White Sox 0
I’m starting to sound like a broken record stuck on a good song, but the Tigers played another brilliant game. Max Scherzer (22 GS, 151.1 IP, 2.85 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 4.5 WAR) led the way with 7.2 superb innings of 0 run baseball in which he allowed 3 hits and 3 walks but also struck out 6. The Sox couldn’t get anything going against him and he cruised through this one easily and left to a standing ovation. The Tigers’ bats didn’t do a ton, but they made it count when they did getting solo homeruns from Hunter, Peralta, and Iglesias to give Max all he would need. The Tigers have now won 7 straight, 11 of 12, and will look to notched their 3rd consecutive sweep on Sunday behind the very solid Rick Porcello (19 GS, 112.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 2.0 WAR).
The Moment: Iglesias launches his first HR as a Tiger…and the crowd gets on its feet for Scherzer.
How Was The Game? (August 2, 2013)
A joy.
Tigers 2, White Sox 1
Any time Doug Fister (22 GS, 143 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.2 WAR) is on cruise control, it is must see television. He had quick inning after quick inning, getting through 5 innings in 45 pitches, 7 in 75, and 8 in 88. He was brilliant, delivering 8 innings of 7 H, 0 BB, 2 K baseball and allowed just a single run in the 6th inning. He was backed by a Jose Iglesias RBI single and a Jackson solo homerun, but he did the rest without a problem getting ground ball after ground ball and mowing through the White Sox order. It was one of the easiest 8 innings we’ve seen this season from any Tigers starter and there isn’t much else to say other than that while Fister is good, the White Sox are an abysmal offense. The game took just 2 hours and 7 minutes despite Leyland going to the glacial Benoit instead of allowing Fister to finish what he started. I mean seriously it was awesome other than Leyland’s desire to ruin every CG ever. Their 6th straight win and 9th in their last 10 pushes the Tigers to 62-45 and they will go for the series victory Saturday night with Max Scherzer (21 GS, 143.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 4.3 WAR) taking the baseball.
The Moment: Anything and everything Doug Fister did.
Matt Tuiasosopo: Difference Maker
The story is pretty widely known. Matt Tuiasosopo didn’t have a job this winter and e-mailed GM’s who he thought might have interest. Dave Dombrowski took the chance.The Tigers needed a right-handed hitting outfielder to use with Andy Dirks in LF and to come off the bench when the team needed a power bat. It’s paying off.
Tuiasosopo had never had any success in the major leagues. In parts of 3 seasons, the last of which was 2010, he had accumulated 210 PA. In those plate appearances he posted an unimpressive .176/.234/.306 stat line which produced a 48 wRC+ (what’s wRC+?). In total, his career wins above replacement (what’s WAR?) was -1.1. That’s a small sample and you can’t make too much of it, but Tuiasosopo paced out to about -3.0 WAR over a full season based on his career numbers.
Let’s just say 2013 has been different. While Tuiasosopo had some occasional offensive success in the minors it looked liked the 27 year old was never going to have a steady big league job. After four months of 2013, he’s at least earned himself a spot on someone’s big league bench next season.
If you assume there are 255 starting spots in the show (9 spots per AL club, 8 per NL club) then the 255 position players with the most plate appearances are the starters and the rest are bench guys. Obviously injuries throw a wrench into the clean cut off, but I’m just using it as a jumping off point, so we can be a little loose about it.
Among the remaining 527 players to grab a PA this season, Tuiasosopo ranks 15th in WAR at 1.2. He’s been one of the best 15 backup players in the major leagues this season despite no success in his career and zero MLB at bats in the two previous seasons. If you actually look at the list of players in the sample, the two guys at the top are Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, so we probably shouldn’t count them because they’re basically superstars. Jose Reyes is ahead of Tuiasosopo. So is Wil Myers.
I told you the cutoff line wasn’t perfect, but the point is pretty clear. Tuiasosopo is one of baseball’s most valuable bench players in baseball this season.
He has just 129 PA this year, so let’s see what happens when we look at players with 150 PA or fewer in 2013. Among players with 150 PA or fewer in 2013, Matt Tuiasosopo ranks 3rd in WAR. He’s the 3rd best player in the game (with some margin of error) who averages fewer than 1.5 PA per team game.
I point this out because we spend a lot of time focusing on star players who carry teams, but I’m a big believer in the value of the backups. Individual bench players can’t change their team’s fortune overall, but the overall bench is very important. The ability to fill in for injured players and to give stars a day off is very important. If each of your bench players can give you 1.0 WAR, you’re looking at 4-5 wins above what you could get from a bad bench. If you can get 2+ wins (a starter’s floor) out of a couple bench guys, you’re looking at something pretty special.
There are a finite number of at bats during a season and it’s critical that you get the most out of each. The difference between Tuiasosopo and a AAA player has already been 1.2 wins and could easily find its way to 2 by the time the season is over. What’s great about that is that he looked exactly like one of those replacement level players entering the season.
Dombrowski and his staff saw something in Tui that made him give the guy a shot and the coaches saw enough to bring him north after Spring Training. In those 129 PA, Tuiasosopo has hit .299/.419/.561 with a .424 wOBA (what’s wOBA?) and 171 wRC+. He’s walking 15% of the time he comes to the plate.
I know you can’t just extrapolate it out, but he’s playing at a 6.0 WAR pace. That’s one heck of a weak half of a platoon.
Now Tuiasosopo won’t continue to hit like this because he’s basically hitting like Mike Trout, but he’s already added more value than you could have expected at the start of the year. He’s already done it, even if he never takes another swing. If you set the minimum at 100 PA for 2013, only 6 players have a better overall offensive rate using wRC+. It’s an impressive list.
| Rank | Name | Team | PA | wRC+ |
| 1 | Hanley Ramirez | Dodgers | 196 | 205 |
| 2 | Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 452 | 202 |
| 3 | Jeff Baker | Rangers | 106 | 183 |
| 4 | Chris Davis | Orioles | 444 | 180 |
| 5 | Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | 212 | 180 |
| 6 | Mike Trout | Angels | 485 | 171 |
| 7 | Matt Tuiasosopo | Tigers | 129 | 171 |
Among players who have come to the plate 100 or more times, only Ramirez, Cabrera, Baker (!), Davis, Puig, and Trout have been better. Surely he’d regress if given a full season of reps, but it’s amazing nonetheless. He’s given the Tigers so much value for almost no cost.
The big moves make headlines. Signing Sanchez and Hunter, extending Verlander, trading for others along the way. But Matt Tuiasosopo has been a very important piece for the 2013 Tigers even if it’s in a limited role. I don’t think we give enough credit to role players in MLB, so that’s really all this is.
Earlier this year I penned this love letter to Don Kelly (my favorite player), but other than that, you don’t see big features written about guys who spend more time on the pines than on the grass. But we do that here at New English D. We love these guys. They play an important role and can sometimes be the difference.
Matt Tuiasosopo is having a heck of a season at the plate and if you’re willing to accept the small sample as indicative of what has already happened even if it isn’t predicitve, he’s one of the best players in the game who fill his role. He’s one of the best hitters with at least 100 PA and one of the most valuable guys to have fewer than 150. He’s not Miguel Cabrera, but the 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th spots on the position player side of your lineup card matter and deserve more attention.
Nice job, Dave and Jim. But really, nice job, Matt.
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (August 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June and July, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Anibal Sanchez
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- David Price
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
- Jordan Zimmerman
- Francisco Liriano
- Homer Bailey
- Partrick Corbin
- Hiroki Kuroda
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s talk about the changes. First of all, Jose Fernandez made the jump from the borderline region into the stable region because he continues to impress during his rookie season. Jordan Zimmernmann falls into the fringe ranks because while he is still pitching well, he hasn’t been turning in dominating, turn the game on and notice performances.
Everyone else on the list is in the same spot and the remaining changes are those who have joined the party. Francisco Liriano is impressing in Pittsburgh over his 95 IP this season. If he remains healthy, he should hold his spot on the list. Price is an obvious addition to the list. He’s been dominant since coming off the DL and was one of the top pitchers in the game last season. He’s now healthy and even more efficient than before.
Bailey, Corbin, and Kuroda are all having very nice seasons and have earned their way onto the list. They don’t make me turn my head quite as much as some others, but they have now pitched their way to the point where I will always be aware when they are on the mound.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
How Was The Month? Detroit Tigers July Report
Excellent.
18-8 (61-45 overall)
It was during July that the Detroit Tigers became the DETROIT TIGERS, AL POWERHOUSE. After playing well, but not having a record that matched the performance perfectly, the Tigers unloaded in the month of July. They won 9 of their final 10 and put themselves back on a 93 win pace thanks to outscoring their opponents by 61 runs.
The Tigers led the AL in offense with a 122 wRC+ (what’s wRC+?) in July and were second in the AL in position player wins above replacement (what’s WAR?) The story of the month offensively was Victor Martinez’s resurgence as he posted a 180 wRC+ after a very slow start, but among Tigers who came to the plate a significant number of times quite a fewer put up above average numbers. Hunter (187 wRC+), Miguel Cabrera (173 wRC+), Don Kelly (138 wRC+), Matt Tuiasosopo (137 wRC+), Alex Avila (126 wRC+), and Jhonny Peralta (115 wRC+) all put up great numbers during the month. Avila’s numbers really jump off the page.
In 77 PA in July, Avila hit .269/.355/.463 and was worth 0.5 WAR. Those numbers look very reasonable for what he could do going forward. Avila might hit for a bit less average, but the walks are always there and he can hit for some decent power. If you guide it out, Avila is a 2.5 to 3.0 WAR player in my mind going forward because he’s going to have to spend some time on the DL each year. The numbers are in a small sample, but the process looks much better too.
Overall, the pitching staff was around average in July, offering a 3.0 WAR in the month and a 3.44 ERA and 3.91 FIP (what’s FIP?) after an historic start to the year. They are still within 1% of having baseball’s best rotation in history, but after July it’s going to be a bit harder to achieve that goal as the starters only posted the 8th best numbers in MLB over the last 31 days.
Scherzer and Porcello were both brilliant in July, and while Anibal Sanchez didn’t pitch great, he did manage to limit the runs he allowed with some timely outs. Verlander struggled in the month across the board and Fister was certainly below where you’d expect to see him, but Fister has figured it out since the break after struggling before it and Verlander has shown signs of promise.
Smyly and Benoit remain one of baseball’s best two headed monsters out in the pen, and with reinforcements coming, things look pretty good there too.
All in all, it was a great month for the team and it was fun to watch. The bats carried the pitching staff, but the pitching staff was still pretty good – they just weren’t as good as the pace they set in the first half. The Tigers have 56 games left in 2013 and will likely play most of them without Jhonny Peralta, but as long as Cabrera’s injury doesn’t prove to be too serious, it doesn’t look like much can stop them. The Tigers look like they’ll ride to the postseason and are ready to make another deep run. They only need to play at an 83 win pace the rest of the way in order to reach 90 wins, which should be more than enough to outlast the Indians and Royals.
The Moment: Brayan Pena tags out Nick Swisher on a ball Swisher expected to go foul. Pena chuckles with delight.
How Was The Game? (July 31, 2013)
A slaughter.
Tigers 11, Nationals 1
A day after the Tigers got to Stephen Strasburg, they backed Justin Verlander (23 GS, 143.2 IP, 3.88 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.1 WAR) with 11 runs against Gio Gonzalez thanks to two innings in which they batted around and scored 5 runs. Hunter led the way with four hits including a homerun and Avila added his second homerun in as many days and his first against a LHP all season long. It was an all out assault on offense and Verlander was certainly good enough. He struggled in the first inning and walked 5 overall, but got through 6 innings of 1 run baseball while gathering 6 strikeouts. He wasn’t his old self, but he did break off some nice curveballs, which he had been missing thanks to issues with his release point. The win is the Tigers 5th straight and 9th in their last 10 tries pushing them to 16 games over .500 at 61-45 as they get set for a weekend set against the White Sox. Doug Fister (21 GS, 135 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.9 WAR) will take the ball in game one on Friday, likely with new Tiger Jose Iglesias behind him with a suspension likely coming to Jhonny Peralta this week. Should Peralta’s regular season effectively be over, it certainly was one of his best as he finished with a .307/.363/.460 line good for 126 wRC+, and 3.3 WAR.
The Moment: Santiago and Avila both drive in a pair in the second to put this one away early.
The Morning Edition (July 31, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tigers, Red Sox, and White Sox consummate a 3 team deal with Iglesias, Peavy, and Garcia on the move (Tigers coverage)
- A’s add Callaspo from the Angels for Grant Green
- Wheeler flirts with a no-hitter, Mets win in extras
- Davis homers to beat the Astros
- Pirates sweep a double headed with division rival Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gonzalez and Verlander (1p Eastern)
- Dickey faces Colon (330p Eastern)
- MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright and Locke hook up in game 4 of the NL Central Series (7p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Kershaw out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s your team doing at the deadline?
I spend much of late Tuesday covering the Tigers deal (link above) so I don’t have a lot of thoughts. I’ll give you quick analysis of tomorrow’s deals in this spot and on Twitter. I like the Callaspo move for the A’s. Like the big deal for all parties involved. Enjoy the deadline.
Tigers See Their Chance, Grab Iglesias From Red Sox
Late Tuesday night, reports came down that Avi Garcia was pulled from his game in Toledo. This time of year that meant he was in the middle of a big trade rumor and it looks like that came true around 11pm as multiple reporters confirmed that the Tigers got involved in a three team deal that sent Garcia to the White Sox, Jake Peavy to the Red Sox, and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. Additionally, the Tigers will send Brayan Villarreal to Boston and the Sox will send low level prospects to Chicago.
On the surface, it works for everyone. The White Sox get a high ceiling prospect in Garcia, the Red Sox get the starting pitcher they needed, and the Tigers get a SS to fill in for Jhonny Peralta who is, at this point, sure to be suspended this week. The Tigers gave up a young, cheap player from a position of strength for a young, cheap player at a position of weakness. The Red Sox gave up a young, cheap player from a position of strength for much needed pitcher. The White Sox traded a starter who won’t be a part of their future for an OF who could be.
This seems like a deal that works for everyone. I’m a Tigers writer, so I’m going to focus on the deal from their perspective. Jose Iglesias is an elite defender at SS and makes the Tigers starting pitchers, particularly their two elite level ground ball starters Porcello and Fister, much better. At New English D we judge pitchers on only what they can control, but it is also important to realize that run prevention wins games, not expected run prevention. The Tigers as a whole got much better at preventing runs with the addition of Iglesias, even if it doesn’t actually change anything about the pitchers themselves.
Porcello and Fister are very good pitchers, but their ERA’s will be helped a great deal by a player like Iglesias who will swallow up baseballs that Peralta couldn’t. Peralta isn’t a bad defender, but he’s not on Iglesias’ level either. And Peralta is getting suspended. Porcello and Fister are 2nd and 3rd in MLB in Ground Ball Percentage and the team just added someone who can get to ground balls with the best of them. Not only will Iglesias get to more balls than Peralta, but he can also get to a few ground balls in Cabrera’s zone as well that Peralta has been unable to help on.
The Tigers traded an OF who isn’t expected to be a player on the 2013 club and doesn’t really have a place on the team for 2014. With Jackson locked in center, Hunter under contract for 2014, and Castellanos twiddling his thumbs in AAA, there isn’t really a place for Garcia right now especially with absolutely no way to find ABs at DH until at least 2015. Garcia may prove to be a better player than Iglesias, but the immediate value Iglesias can bring to plug the whole at SS with excellent defense during a championship run is worth the cost. Iglesias profiles as a guy who could hit, but might not. He started hot this season but has cooled off this month. As long as he can provide something more than Worth or Santiago at the plate, it isn’t even worth talking about and Brayan Villarreal barely registers as a cost to the team.
Iglesias is a great defender at shortstop who won’t be a free agent for five more years. He’s 23. Garcia has a higher ceiling, but has plenty of risk too. This is the move you make. It’s the most Dave Dombrowski move since he traded for Fister. I like it a lot.
Iglesias can pick up some slack for Peralta at the dish, but he’s going to make up the lost value on the other side of the ball. He’s Brendan Ryan but with a reasonably decent bat. And he’s younger. And under team control. Dave rarely rents players. He finds opportunities to exploit an evolving market.
He heard the Red Sox wanted Peavy and he saw an opening to grab the SS he wanted. The Sox have Drew this year and top prospect Bogaerts coming. It was a chance to get a player that can help the Tigers now and in the future.
He went for it.
Now Iglesias doesn’t have enough big league time for me to do an in depth statistical breakdown, but everything I know about him says the value will be there on defense. Given the alternative, this is a smart move that could be a great move. Defense plays up in October and the Tigers were going to need a SS next year anyway. Dombrowski said he was probably done dealing at his press conference Tuesday afternoon, but we all knew that wasn’t true.
Dave doesn’t stop, he lurks. He waits. On Tuesday he grabbed a SS who makes the team better without paying too much. That’s a tough thing to do in a sport devoid of shortstops.
Maybe Garcia becomes and All-Star and this looks foolish in 2016. But it’s a gamble you take because, despite how much of a cliche it may be, flags fly forever.
How Was The Game? (July 30, 2013)
A crushing blow.
Tigers 5, Nationals 1
In the day’s marquee matchup, Anibal Sanchez (18 GS, 111 IP, 2.59 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 3.8 WAR) finished with 7 innings of 1 run baseball and got the better of Stephen Strasburg after dueling early. Both teams scored single runs early in the game and were shut down by the two starters until the bottom of the 6th. At that point, the Tigers broke through. Cabrera made the first out before Fielder singled, Martinez doubled, and Peralta walked. With the bases loaded Andy Dirks struck out swinging and left it up to Alex Avila. Avila worked himself into a 2-1 count, before turning on a 96 mph fastball from one of the game’s best and deposited it in the right field seats to give the Tigers a 5-1 lead. That would be all they would need as Leyland called on Veras for the 8th and Benoit for the 9th who shut the door easily. The win is the Tigers’ 60th of the season and their 8th in their last 9. A quick turnout will put the Tigers on the field during Wednesday’s trading deadline with Justin Verlander (22 GS, 137.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 3.0 WAR) on the mound trying to rediscover his release point.
The Moment: Avila’s grand slam puts the Tigers ahead for good.
Hidden Value: Assessing the Tigers on The Bases
Baserunning is pretty much the red-headed stepchild of baseball analysis. We care a lot about hitting. We care a lot about pitching. Most people given a courtesy nod to defense, even if they basically ignore it. But no one talks about baserunning aside from stolen base totals, or maybe stolen base efficiency.
But there is so much more going on on the bases that we could be talking about. Going first to third, scoring on singles, not making outs you don’t have to make. All of these are critical aspects of baserunning that we don’t talk about, but very easily could. In the text of this post I’ll be introducing some statistics (which are very simple) and discussing them in the context of the 2013 Tigers to date (July 30th).
Let’s start by digging deeper on stolen bases. Stolen bases add value to the team, about 1/4 of the value added by a single. But getting caught is costly, and is about twice as costly as stealing a base is beneficial because the value of moving up a base is not as important as not making an extra out. In other words, you need to steal at about a 70% rate or better in order to be adding value to your team overall.
| Name | wSB |
| Andy Dirks | 0.7 |
| Don Kelly | 0.3 |
| Hernan Perez | 0.2 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.1 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | -0.1 |
| Ramon Santiago | -0.1 |
| Omar Infante | -0.2 |
| Alex Avila | -0.2 |
| Austin Jackson | -0.3 |
| Torii Hunter | -0.4 |
| Avisail Garcia | -0.4 |
| Prince Fielder | -0.6 |
| Victor Martinez | -0.8 |
| Jhonny Peralta | -0.9 |
| Brayan Pena | -0.9 |
Presented above are the number of runs each Tiger has added via SB and CS. As you can see, nobody is doing much of anything. The Tigers best basestealer isn’t even up to a full run (10 runs = 1 win) of value and the worst basestealer costs about the same. The Tigers don’t steal a lot of bases, but they don’t get caught a ton either. All told they are a -3.7 wSB, which means their basestealing exploits has cost the team about one-third of a win. Not very significant.
Now let’s take a look at UBR, which is simply the same formula for all other baserunning activities. This includes the value of going first to third and the cost of getting thrown out trying to stretch something. I’m going to talk about some pieces of this in a moment, but first let me give you the overall numbers.
| Name | UBR |
| Austin Jackson | 5.0 |
| Don Kelly | 2.1 |
| Omar Infante | 1.6 |
| Avisail Garcia | 0.7 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.6 |
| Alex Avila | 0.6 |
| Ramon Santiago | 0.3 |
| Hernan Perez | 0.1 |
| Andy Dirks | -0.2 |
| Bryan Holaday | -0.6 |
| Jhonny Peralta | -0.7 |
| Brayan Pena | -0.7 |
| Torii Hunter | -1.2 |
| Prince Fielder | -2.1 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | -2.8 |
| Victor Martinez | -4.6 |
Here we have a chance to see more overall value impact. It will not surprise you to learn that Austin Jackson is the Tigers best runner and that he has been worth half a win to the team simply on the bases (this does not include stealing). Kelly ranks well in this department and despite being slow, Cabrera’s solid instincts help him add value here as well. Dirks is a bit surprising because he’s the team’s best basestealer, but it looks like he doesn’t help much with the ball in play. Overall, the team has a -1.9 UBR, which is just a tick below average. Adding wSB and UBR together, the Tigers have cost themselves something like half a win this season with their baserunning (25th in MLB). You’re not happy about that, but given their collection of lumbering sluggers, it’s nice to see they aren’t giving runs back on the bases they are earning with the bat.
So now that we have an idea about the Tigers overall baserunning value, what are some other things we can track. Let’s start with outs made on the bases. The table below is sorted by total outs, but includes where each out was made. These are outs made when the runner was not forced, so it would include something like getting thrown out at the plate trying to score from second, but not getting forced out in the middle of a double play:
| Player | OOB1 | OOB2 | OOB3 | OOBHm | OOB |
| Torii Hunter | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Victor Martinez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Andy Dirks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Prince Fielder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Omar Infante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Austin Jackson | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Don Kelly | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Avila | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Avisail Garcia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Holaday | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brayan Pena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hernan Perez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramon Santiago | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
You’ll notice the Tigers have made 32 outs on the bases while the average team has made 33. Essentially, the Tigers know their limitations like with stolen bases. This is not a club blessed with speed, but they know not to push it and don’t run into an inordinate amount of outs. It’s important to recognize that the base coaches are partially responsible for this, so don’t look at Fielder’s 3 outs at home and put it all on him. This isn’t a perfectly individual situation and it’s important to consider the context of every action and game situations. It would just be way too difficult for me to show you the percentage of time Fielder scored on singles from second versus the times he stopped at 3B versus the times he got thrown out in a simple table.
Now let’s look at the Tigers’ Extra Bases Taken Percentage. This is how often a player takes an extra base when the opportunity presents itself. Note that this is how often they go from first to third when the opportunity comes up not how often the make it when they try for it.
| Player | XBT% |
| Omar Infante | 55% |
| Torii Hunter | 49% |
| Austin Jackson | 48% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 41% |
| Avisail Garcia | 40% |
| Jhonny Peralta | 37% |
| Ramon Santiago | 36% |
| Don Kelly | 33% |
| Hernan Perez | 33% |
| Andy Dirks | 29% |
| Prince Fielder | 29% |
| Victor Martinez | 23% |
| Alex Avila | 17% |
| Brayan Pena | 13% |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 8% |
| Bryan Holaday | 0% |
League average is 40% and the Tigers as a unit take 35%. Some Tigers do this very well and some do it quite poorly. It’s important to think about the last two stats together. The Tigers make an average number of outs and take a slightly below average number of extra bases. This is a team that knows what it can and can’t do and doesn’t run into a lot of outs relative to the rest of the league. Remember our lesson from the stolen bases section. Not making outs is more important than moving up a base.
You can break these stats down further to each base situation. I’ll just give you one to demonstrate. Let’s try for how many times each Tiger has scored from second base on a single:
| Player | 2ndSH |
| Torii Hunter | 14 |
| Austin Jackson | 11 |
| Victor Martinez | 11 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 9 |
| Omar Infante | 8 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 7 |
| Andy Dirks | 6 |
| Don Kelly | 4 |
| Ramon Santiago | 3 |
| Alex Avila | 3 |
| Avisail Garcia | 2 |
| Prince Fielder | 2 |
| Brayan Pena | 2 |
| Hernan Perez | 0 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | 0 |
| Bryan Holaday | 0 |
It’s important to think about all of these numbers in the context of opportunity and situations, but they are valuable to know. Baserunning doesn’t swing entire seasons dramatically (usually 1-2 wins over an entire season), but it does matter and could easily be talked about more often. In just a few short minutes I’ve given you some other ways to think about baserunning. Stolen bases are important, but they can be measured a bit more accurately too. Additionally, there are stats readily available at sites like Baseball Reference that can tell you more about baserunning value such as XBT% and Outs on the Bases.
As always, there is a lot of information out there and I think you’ll enjoy your baseball watching experience a lot more if you know just a little bit more. Baserunning is about more than raw speed and there are ways to measure which players add value on the bases beyond the stolen base. The 2013 Tigers aren’t the poster children, but they seem to know their game is more about swinging that motoring.
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