How Was The Game? (April 26, 2013)
A good old fashion whooping.
Tigers 10, Braves 0
Many, if not all, baseball observers would likely tell you that the Atlanta Braves have been the best team in baseball over the first four weeks of the 2013 season. The Tigers did not seem to care on Friday night as they opened their interleague series against the Braves by destroying them. Not only did the Tigers score 10 runs, but they did so against one of the best rotations in the league and one of the hottest starting pitchers in Paul Maholm. If that wasn’t enough, Anibal Sanchez violated the Braves hitters by striking out 17 in 8 innings while walking just 1 and allowing 5 hits and no runs. Those 17 strikeouts are a Tigers franchise record for a pitcher in a 9 inning game. Put another way, the Tigers had their best offensive output in the same game that they received their best pitching performance, all while playing the league’s best team. All in all, that’s a good day at the office as they improve to 11-10. Sanchez’s line earns him a remarkable -0.88 FIP for the day and lowers his season ERA and FIP to 1.34 and 1.36, respectively. By WAR, he’s now tied for 2nd best for a pitcher in the majors this season with Yu Darvish (1.7) thanks to a 10.96 K/9 and 1.13 BB/9. The Tigers will look to take the series behind Porcello tomorrow afternoon against Kris Medlen.
The Moment: Anibal Sanchez delivers his 17th strikeout to set a career and franchise record.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
How Was The Game? (April 25, 2013)
Great, until the bullpen showed up.
Royals, 8, Tigers 3
Two of the better starters in the AL over the last couple of seasons hooked up for a matinee on Thursday at Comerica Park and did a fairly good job limiting the offensive output. Verlander surrendered 2 runs over 7 innings and Shields held the Tigers to 3 over 8. After Verlander left the game with “cracked skin” on his thumb (which has to be the lamest injury you can have!), Leyland called for the rookie Bruce Rondon, who surrendered the tying run in the 8th inning. Rondon wasn’t particularly ineffective in his MLB debut, but he wasn’t brilliant and the Tigers would need to deliver a walk off win to overcome his appearance and they would need it to come in extra innings after Collins retired them in order in the 9th. Unfortunately, Phil Coke had other ideas and melted down in the top of the 10th allowing a double, walk, wild pitch, intentional walk, and another walk to give up the lead with just one out. He left the bases loaded for Darin Downs who allowed a grand slam before getting out of the inning with the score 8-3. The loss drops the Tigers to 10-10 on the season with the Braves coming to town for a weekend set starting tomorrow. It will be Maholm and Sanchez for game one.
The Moment: Gordon puts it out of reach with a bomb to dead center.
Yu Darvish and the Most Incredible .GIF
This site is devoted primarily to the Detroit Tigers and secondarily to baseball as a whole, and this post will concern the latter. It will be very short and direct.
A gentleman in the comments section of the Rangers blog Lone Star Ball created this masterpiece that features Yu Darvish throwing each of his pitches at one time. The creator is Drew Shepherd and he has done superb work. Go watch it.
The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
How Was The Game? (April 24, 2013)
Not one for purists.
Tigers 7, Royals 5
It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. The Tigers got ahead early, but Scherzer struggled in the 3rd inning and gave up 4 runs. The Tigers paid Wade Davis back and hung 7 runs on him and chased him after just 11 outs, so things evened out thanks to Cabrera, Martinez, and Peralta. The offense did their part, but Scherzer inconsistently worked through 5 and relied on his bullpen for the final four innings. Alburquerque and Benoit got the Tigers to the 9th, at which point it was time for the return of Jose Valverde, who Leyland put right back into the closer role without a second thought. The reception was mostly positive from the hometown crowd as he arrived to the mound for his first outing in 2013. He went to his fastball for all 18 pitches and got all three Royals he faced despite a long fly ball to Dirks for the final out. It seems fitting a game that featured 13 walks would end with a Valverde return to the 9th inning. He got the job done, but I didn’t see anything from him that makes me less concerned about his return. Verlander and Shields suit up tomorrow for the series finale at 1pm.
The Moment: Victor Martinez is thrown out by 30 feet at home plate in the 4th inning and decides to simply walk to the dugout instead of face a collision or slide at the plate. Tom Brookens is comforted by Gene Lamont.
Dynamic Standings Projection (April 24, 2013)
In case you missed it, earlier this month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 23 games.
The Morning Edition (April 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Rain came after the 7th inning in Boston as what can only be described as a mercy rule, with the A’s winning 13-0
- Wainwright finally walks someone, but K’s 9 in 8.1 innings as the Cards blank the Nats 2-0
- The Braves top the Rox in Game 1 of a double-header in 23 (!) degree weather
What I’m Watching Today:
- Samarzija and Latos battle at GABP (1230p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets Garcia as the Nats and Cards face off (1p Eastern)
- Halladay faces the Pirates coming off two strong outings (7p Eastern)
- MATT HARVEY against the Dodgers (7p Eastern)
- Guys, MATT HARVEY.
The Big Question:
- Why aren’t you watching Matt Harvey yet?!
So obviously, I’ve written a good deal about Matt Harvey in this post and in previous iterations thereof, but let’s admire Adam Wainwright today because Adam Wainwright is awesome. He missed all of 2011 with TJ surgery after two very strong seasons and came back in 2012 nearly as good as before. If there was question last season, it’s gone now. He’s back and on a mission. Here’s the line to admire:
4-1, 37.1 innings, 8.92 K/9, 0.24 BB/9, 1.93 ERA, 1.12 FIP, 1.9 WAR
Want me to blow your mind more? I will. That line is in spite of a .340 BABIP. For context, that’s like a Rick Porcello BABIP. When guys make contact, they’re getting their hits. He’s just not letting anyone on via the free pass and he’s striking them out when he needs to. Watch out NL Central.
The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
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