Closers Don’t Matter: Rondon, Dotel, Who Cares?
Alright guys, it’s time to have the talk. We’ve been putting it off for a while, but I think you’re ready. You’re starting to ask questions, and you should hear it from me.
Closers don’t matter.
I’m exaggerating a little bit. They matter because they’re one of your seven relievers and tend to pitch in close games. So it’s important that they aren’t bad, but they don’t matter in the way you think they do.
This is of importance because Tigers closer in waiting Bruce Rondon has struggled in Spring Training and everyone is starting to panic. “The Tigers need a proven closer!” they will say. “Rondon isn’t up to the task, we must find the Tigers a closer!” they are already saying.
But closers are just not as important as everyone thinks. You don’t need an experienced closer. You don’t need a closer at all. The Tigers would be great going closer by committee or to use Rondon. Or anyone who is reasonably competent.
Here’s why.
Saves Are Made Up
Saves are arbitrary. A three run or fewer lead? Bring in the closer! Four runs, forget about it. Why is it that a four run lead against the Angels isn’t a save but a three run lead against the Astros is? It makes no sense. You can also receive a save when you pitch horribly. If you come in with a three run lead and walk three and give up a hit, but then get the next three guys out, you get a save despite allowing more baserunners than outs.
Save are not a measure of performance, they are a measure of opportunity. If you gave the best reliever in baseball 50 save opportunities he would get 48 or 49 saves. If you gave the median reliever 50 save opportunities, he would get 44 or 45 saves. It does not require any sort of special skill to be a closer above and beyond pitching in any other inning.
The Ninth Inning Isn’t Always the Most Important
Why have we decided the last three outs are the most important and most difficult outs to get? If the middle of the order is up in the seventh inning of a one run game, that is when you should use your best reliever. If your closer is your best reliever, he should come into the game when it is most on the line.
If we were to assume that your closer is your best reliever, he should be used when you have the most to lose. That isn’t always the ninth inning. Don’t save him for an inning that might not come. The ninth inning is no different from any other inning.
Anyone Can Close
Think about this. A team’s All-Star closer goes down in Spring Training and will miss the whole season. They’re in trouble right? Wrong. They replace him with a middle reliever and they win the World Series. That happened last season.
Good relievers are good relievers. Use them and they will perform well. Sergio Romo wasn’t a proven closer and now, all of a sudden, he is one.
——
There is no closer mentality or proven closer mold. If you can pitch in the eighth inning, you can pitch in the ninth. We’ve seen middle relievers become closers and we’ve seen lots of critical innings come and go with closers waiting for a save that never came.
I realize I’m trying to make two points at once, so let me break it down. 1) Anyone who is a reasonable good reliever can pitch in the closer role and rack up saves. 2) The idea of a closer who pitches the ninth inning of close games is silly.
Both points are relevant to the current Tigers situation, so let’s take them in turn.
First, Rondon can close. So can Dotel, Benoit, or Coke. You don’t need any special skills. They are all capable relievers who could easily thrive in the ninth inning because they have shown they are able to perform in the 6th, 7th, and 8th inning. Maybe you might think that Rondon hasn’t earned his keep, and I suppose we could discuss if he is actually not ready to pitch in the majors at all, but I think that he is. And I think he would be perfect for the role.
I think that, because of point number 2. Turning your relief ace into a closer who has a very limited job description means you can’t use him when you need him earlier in games. So, why not use your third best reliever as your closer and leave your best two guys to pitch when you need them more?
That’s exactly what you should do. If I can’t win the war and eliminate the position of closer entirely, what if instead, we just didn’t use our best reliever for that spot and instead, recognized that we can get the most out of our bullpen by using our best reliever in a more flexible fashion.
I want Dotel, Benoit, and Coke available to pitch whenever I need them. If that is the 6th inning, so be it. They are better than Rondon right now, so I’d rather have them for earlier in the game if I get into a jam. Rondon, being the closer, will always get to start with no one on base and will only pitch when he doesn’t have to rush to warm up. He’ll know in advance he’s pitching, so he won’t need to get loose in a hurry.
Hmmm. A young, erratic reliever with a ton of potential. What’s the best way to use him? In situations with no one on base after a well-paced warm up. Sounds exactly like the closer role to me.
Now it may be the case the Rondon simply isn’t ready for big league pitching. If that proves to be the case after Spring Training (Guys, it’s been two weeks!), then he should spend time in Toledo and we shouldn’t bother having a closer at all.
Saves are all in our heads. There is no latent save. It was made up in the 70s by a sportswriter who was apparently too dense to look at strikeouts and ERA. You shouldn’t get special credit for getting three outs in the ninth when someone else just got three outs in the eighth. Managers should use the reliever best suited for each situation as it comes up. If that means Coke in the 7th, Dotel in the 8th, Rondon in the 9th, great. If it means a different order, that’s fine too.
I’m not worried for a second about Rondon in the closer role. In fact, I would advocate for it. It’s better to have your best guys available to pitch in any inning rather than pigeonholed into a single one.
Of the ten closers with the most saves in 2012, only four had more than 10 saves in 2011. Good pitchers will get saves and there’s a good case to be made that you’re wasting your best reliever if you make him your closer.
Your closer isn’t any more important than your eighth inning guy. Or your seventh inning guy. Your closer is someone who gets saves, and saves don’t count in the standings.
So I hope the Tigers go with Rondon or Dotel or anyone on the current roster. They don’t need to sign a proven closer because you don’t have to be proven to succeed in the closer’s role and the closer’s role doesn’t even matter that much to begin with.
Unless you’re playing fantasy baseball. Then it matters a lot.
What do you think? Is Rondon the right fit for the closer’s role? Do we overvalue closers? If you answered anything but yes to the last question, read this article again and again until your answer changes.
2013 Season Preview: American League Central
While certain national baseball writers seem to think Kansas City and Cleveland adding five or six wins to their 2012 totals will somehow help them unseat a Tigers team that added four or five wins of their own this offseason, the overwhelming evidence points to a third straight Tigers division title.
Things can go wrong, but the Tigers are far and away the safest bet to win any division in baseball again this season.
Here’s how STT sees it. [Division Rank. Team (2013 W/L Prediction, 2013 Preseason Power Ranking)]
5. Minnesota Twins (65-97, 27)
The Twins are looking down the road at a crop of exciting position prospects who are a few years away. They traded away both of their center fielders and signed scrap heap pitching. The plan is to wait it out, and that’s what they are doing. The Twins might not be baseball’s worst team, but on paper, they are certainly the worst in the AL Central.
4. Cleveland Indians (71-91, 26)
To be clear, I locked in these rankings and projections days before the Indians signed Michael Bourn, so this reflects a lower opinion of the Indians that is appropriate. The numbers reflect my views in the days before Spring Training, so for consistency’s sake, I’ll stand by them. The Indians added Bourn, Swisher, Stubbs, and Reynolds on offense and Myers, Bauer, and Dice-K in the rotation this offseason and should be better in 2013 for it. I kind of like their positions players and would like them more if they had one elite bat to put in the middle. But the pitching just can’t cut it. They have plenty of guys I like at the back end of a rotation, but no one I like for the top in 2013.
3. Kansas City Royals (76-86, 23)
Listen, the Royals didn’t get that much better. They added Ervin Santana who was terrible last year. They added Jeremy Guthrie who is okay. They added Wade Davis who could be solid and James Shields who is very good. At most, they added ten wins to their 2012 total. At most. That’s if Santana and Guthrie and Davis all contribute like legitimate major leaguers and if they all stay healthy. Don’t get me wrong, Hosmer should be better and Perez should hopefully stay healthy, but man is that a lot of qualifications. The Royals are no one’s whipping boy anymore, but let’s cool it with the excitement from national writers who somehow think adding James Shields changes everything. Guys, Wil Myers would have been just as big an upgrade over Jeff Francoeur.
2. Chicago White Sox (83-79, 16)
The White Sox didn’t do much to improve upon the 2012 roster and that team was the picture of average. So they shall be again. They over performed my expectations last year because I bet on certain players to continue washing up instead of returning to form. This team is a 78-85 win team at its finest and can certainly hang around if the Tigers let them.
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68, 2)
The Tigers return the same team that made it to the World Series in 2012 after underperforming all season, but they also add Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, and full seasons of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They do so without losing anything of substance. If the Tigers remain as healthy as their opponents, they should win the division easily in 2013. Their pitching staff is head and shoulders above the Twins, Royals, and Indians while remaining significantly better than the White Sox and are serious contenders for the title of baseball’s best staff. Certainly things can go wrong, but they would have to go a lot more wrong for the Tigers than for every other team for this to be much of a race.
AL Central Cy Young: Justin Verlander (snooze)
AL Central MVP: Justin Verlander
Most Potentially Pivotal Player: Eric Hosmer
Storyline that Will Surprise Us: The Tigers won’t stumble out of the gate or down the stretch and will make it easy on their fans.
Boldest of the Bold: Joe Mauer will find his power again and hit 20 HRs.
Help Me Make a Serious Decision
So I need some help. Perhaps this isn’t the right place to go looking for it because this is usually a place where I, the writer, provides a service to you, the reader. But I have nowhere else to turn at this moment, so I’m hoping you’re okay with the reverse arrangement for this one particular post.
My problem is this. I don’t know which Tigers player shirt to buy this year.
Every year for the last probably seven or eight years, I’ve added one player to my repertoire and I’m just not sure which way to go. So I need some advice.
First, let me tell you which players I have. So we can obviously leave them out.
1) Brandon Inge
2) Curtis Granderson
3) Justin Verlander
4) Rick Porcello
5) Alex Avila
6) Doug Fister
7) Ryan Raburn
8) Don Kelly
My basic criteria are these. When I buy the shirt, I want some sense of security that the player will be around for at least another season, so I usually shy away from players in contract years or on the trading block. I want the player to have earned my love and affection. Which means I don’t buy a player’s shirt until they’ve contributed in some way, meaning that I can’t buy Torii Hunter just yet. I also place more weight on players who are less popular, because I like to support players who have fewer fans.
As many of you know, I’m something of a die-hard fan who loves even the worst players on the team. Miguel Cabrera is an amazing hitter, but I have a lot more fun cheering for Don Kelly. Put simply, I’m attracted to players who are blessed with heart and hustle over hits and homeruns, but that is not an exclusive relationship. I’m not against buying the best players, I would just rather pick a more obscure player all else being equal.
So without further ado, here are the choices I’m considering this year in the rough order I’m thinking.
1) Andy Dirks
2) Max Scherzer
3) Victor Martinez
4)Austin Jackson
5) Prince Fielder
6) Drew Smyly
7) Anibal Sanchez
Help me out by making a case for a player on this list, or for any other player in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter (@NeilWeinberg44). Or you could help me out by buying me all seven.
I need to order a new player shirt soon and I just have no idea which player to choose.
The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013
As we do every week here at STT, we present lists of things ordered by the nines and on this Saturday, it’s a list of The Nine Best Center Fielders for 2013.
On this list, you’ll find a couple of center fielders have gone missing as they no longer play the position. If you’re looking for Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, for example, try the left field list. Beyond that, I found this list to be a bit convoluted and had a difficult time doing the rankings. A lot of players are left off who could easily be in the 7-9 range and lots of players who are on the list could easily end up somewhere else on the board.
Apologies to: Justin Ruggiano, Dexter Fowler, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury.
9. Adam Jones (Orioles)
Jones hits for power and average and has decent speed, but his plate discipline is suspect. He’s also less than stellar on defense according to the metrics, but coaches seem to like him as they gave him a gold glove last year over the great Mike Trout. He’s a good player, but he’s not a complete player.
8. John Jay (Cardinals)
You could probably attack this choice more any other because Jay doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t have one eye popping skill. But Jay hits for average, runs the bases pretty well, and plays solid defense. It’s more of gut feeling here than anything, but I like Jay to break out this year. Entering his prime years on a great team, I’m buying.
7. B.J. Upton (Braves)
Upton will play between his brother and Jason Heyward on a good all-around team. He’s a solid defender who hits for power and runs well to mix with a good approach at the plate. He has a swing and miss problem and a lowish batting average, but he’s a good bet for 3 to 5 WAR.
6. Peter Bourjos (Angels)
The speedy, defensive star put up a 4.5 WAR season when he got a full season as a starter in 2011 and has two 2+WAR season in a backup role in 2010 and 2012. He doesn’t light up a lot of the traditional stats, but he plays amazing defense and runs as well as anyone. He’s worth the price of admission on defense alone and could easily be a top five centerfielder if he has a moderately good offensive year.
5. Denard Span (Nationals)
Span is a great defender who doesn’t strikeout much and gets on base better than average for a centerfielder and runs well. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be great at the top of the Nationals lineup and between Werth and Harper. With his concussion history hopefully behind him, he should be in for a big year.
4. Michael Bourn (Indians)
Bourn may be aging, but he’s coming off four very good seasons and is a top tier defensive player. He’s a top flight runner and gets on base well. Four years from now, the Indians might not want to pay him $12 million a season, but for 2013, he’s still one of the very best centerfielders money can buy.
3. Matt Kemp (Dodgers)
Kemp’s 2011 season was one for the ages and his 2012 started off on the same pace but was cut down by injuries. That’s the only reason Kemp isn’t #1 on this list. I’m just not sure he’ll play a full season. His defense could use some work, but on offense, a healthy Kemp is as good as they come. If he was coming off a less serious set of injuries I would be more likely to brush them off, but I’m doubtful Kemp can play 150 games for a team with big expectations in 2013.
2. Andrew McCutchen (Pirates)
McCutchen is one of baseball’s best players. He mixes speed, power, and plate discipline and was one of baseball’s most valuable players in 2012. He has four very good seasons under his belt and is only held back by averageish defense. There is some debate about his skills in center, but all in all there isn’t much bad to say about the Pirates’ star.
1. Austin Jackson (Tigers)
Now before I’m accused of bias in favor of my favorite team, go back and look at Jackson’s 2012 season. He was better than Bourn in every major category excepts steals and defense, but he also missed 25 games with an injury. He cut down on his strikeouts, walked more, and hit for more power. He’s a great defender and is a year younger than McCutchen. Despite missing time with an injury that has completely healed, Jackson was third in centerfield WAR among players who still play the position and less than 2 WAR behind McCutchen. I’m buying another step forward for Jackson in 2013 toward something like a 6-6.5 WAR player and modest regression by McCutchen. This isn’t to say Cutch is in decline, but rather that 2012 was simply his career year. It will be hard to reproduce that peak, so Jackson might catch him in 2013. This might be a bit bold, but I’ll stick to it. Jackson is my pick for the best centerfielder in baseball for 2013.
Sound off in the comments and online about the merits of this list. Should you want your money back because it was terrible, try to remember this site is free, unlike ESPN Insider, which charges you to read mostly terrible commentary.
#GetJimLeylandOnTwitter
Word has it that over the last year or so, Tigers manager Jim Leyland has become a bit more tech savvy that he used to be. Leyland famously didn’t know how to turn on his computer when he arrived in Detroit, but last year he sent “text messages” and this spring he has used Skype to speak with his wife. (“She looked good!”)
Which got me thinking, if Leyland progresses at this rate, it is possible that he could join Twitter one day.
Last year, at one point during a fan mutiny, Leyland wanted fans to e-mail their lineup choices to members of the media to show him so that he could get their input, if they were so smart. But what if we could tweet with Jim?
His son and Tigers minor leaguer Patrick is on Twitter, so presumably someone could help him out at home. And several Tigers players are “Tweeps,” including Paws, the Tigers’ mascot. Could we soon be living in a world in which Jim Leyland tweets?
One can only hope.
His mixture of sage wisdom and nonsensical clichés are exactly what you need to be successful on Twitter, or really the internet in general.
Consider: “Man, that trip to the dry cleaner was just what the doctor ordered. #tonic”
Additionally, I would be very interested to see how mumbling sounds in 140 characters and if he would tweet about things that make him emotional.
“Just got off at Exit 32. That just makes me think of Donnie Kelly. I love that man more than my wife and son put together. #goldenboy”
But most importantly, he could tweet out his lineups ahead of time so that fans could critique his managing in an interactive way.
His Twitter profile would say, “Tigers Skipper, 3 Pennants and a World Series. Will block lineup suggestions.”
In fact, can you think of any person currently without a Twitter page that would be more entertaining to follow than Jim Leyland? I sure can’t.
Just imagine the kinds of things Rod could tweet at him. “Hey Skip!!! You got those boys workin today! #keepinitreal”
This needs to happen. Jim Leyland belongs on Twitter. Don’t you agree?
#LeylandonTwitter2013
Science Proves Justin Verlander Worst in League at Something
Yesterday, beloved Tigers ace Justin Verlander turned thirty years old. He accomplished a great deal in his twenties such as winning two pennants, Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young, and an MVP award to go along with 124 wins (39.3 WAR) and the title of best pitcher in baseball. Sometime in the next two years, he’ll also likely sign the largest contract ever given to a pitcher.
Verlander is an extraordinary pitcher and we love him for that, but Justin Verlander is also extremely terrible at something. Hitting.
Put more clearly, Justin Verlander accumulated exactly zero hits before his 30th birthday.
He’s 0-24 with 9 sac bunts, 14 strikeouts and one GIDP. That is a very bad stat line if you’re not familiar with baseball. His triple slash line is all zeros and his wRC+ is -100. League average is 100 (notice the absence of a minus sign).
Well, so what, AL pitchers can’t be asked to hit, right? Well they have to hit a little bit.
In 2012, AL pitchers made 319 plate appearances (about half a season for a standard position player) and posted a .122/.143/.129 slash line. That is very bad by any field player standard, but it is a line of which Verlander can only dream.
Over the last seven seasons (JV’s career), AL pitchers hit a collective .118. He has hit .000.
So to even be average among his peers, Verlander should have between two and three hits in his career. Of course it’s a small sample, but this is a fun post, so we get to ignore that.
Let’s go further, since 2006, 29 pitchers have twenty or more plate appearances in an AL uniform. Guess how many don’t have a hit?
Two. Only Verlander and Jon Lester. Only Lester, Kevin Milwood, and Tim Wakefield have more strikeouts than JV.
So while, AL pitchers are rarely asked to hit, the AL’s best pitcher is probably one of the league’s very worst hitters, even among his peers.
Justin Verlander is spectacular at many things, but hitting is not one of them. He has two no-hitters and only four men have three. It would surprise no one if he joined that group this year. But could 2013 be the year he finally gets a hit?
That seems like a longshot.
The league’s best pitcher is quite possibly the league’s worst hitter. Now, who wants to tell him?
A Brief Note of Warning to Cleveland Outfielders
Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com wrote a piece recently wondering if any AL Central team could challenge the Tigers for the division title and specifically referenced the Indians acquisition of Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs this offseason, which provides them with a great deal of speed. But the Tigers’ returning DH and former catcher has a word of warning for the base swiping inclined Indians outfielders.
“They gotta do better than Michael Bourn,” said a smiling Victor Martinez, before gesturing toward catcher Alex Avila. “We’ve got some policemen who give tickets to people who go from first to second!”
It’s a wonderful note of support from V-Mart about Avila, but is it accurate? We know catcher defense is the most difficult defense to measure and clunky things like fielding percentage and caught stealing percentage just don’t do it.
The best we have so far is Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). If we accept DRS as the best we can do without detailed scouting reports, how does Avila stack up?
In 2012, he was tied for fourth best in baseball with 6 DRS at catcher trailing Ryan Hanigan (7), Salvador Perez (9 in 653 innings), and Yadier Molina (16).
So, don’t trying anything Indians or you’ll have to deal with this.
Little Uncertainty About the Tigers Opening Day Roster, Two Spots Open
Jim Leyland said this week that 11 of the 13 spots on his roster for position players are all but locked up. Which, in turn, means that there are only two spots left for a number of candidates.
If we assume that the 11 spots belong to Avila, Pena, Martinez, Fielder, Infante, Peralta, Cabrera, Jackson, Hunter, Dirks, and Santiago then the remaining two spots will go to Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avi Garcia, Danny Worth, Don Kelly, or Jeff Kobernus. Of course someone else could have an insane spring and get into the conversation, but these six are the likely contenders.
So how should the Tigers allocate their remaining roster space?
I think it’s unlikely that Garcia makes the Opening Day roster as a reserve outfielder because the Tiger are committed to developing him and he’ll gain more from 600 minor league at bats than 250 big league ones.
From there, we should probably look to positional considerations. Worth and Kobernus can both play infield, but Worth is a better glove and based on his minor league numbers I don’t see Kobernus as offering anything extra at the plate. An important consideration, however, is that Kobernus can also play the outfield and was a rule five pick, which could push him into a Don Kelly 25th man type role from the right side of the plate. If the Tigers were going to do that, they might as well go with Kelly who is even more versatile.
The Boesch versus Berry decision depends on a number of factors. First, who is playing better? Both players have shown flashes of a skill set that can help in the majors and they both hit left handed, so whoever is swinging a hot bat will have a leg up. Boesch provides an element of power and Berry brings speed to the table but neither get on a base at a high rate and both are defensive liabilities.
If the Tigers are committed to keeping Garcia in the minors, then Boesch is the only one on this list who can bring any sort of power off the bench, but he’s also the least flexible player. He can only play corner outfield and doesn’t do it well. Berry can play center and Kobernus, Kelly, and Worth can all play three or more spots.
Given the strength of the Tigers starting group and relatively weak infield defense, I would argue on behalf of Danny Worth for spot number 12 on the roster. He plays good defense and runs well enough to pinch run late in games for Peralta, Avila, or Fielder if the time is right. He doesn’t have Berry’s game changing speed, but he runs the bases well and catches the baseball.
For spot 13, I would go with Boesch. His skill set is limited, but the Tigers won’t ask him to do more than start once a week or so. If he gets rolling, his offensive ceiling is the highest and he could provide some solid value. If he doesn’t do anything, then at least they tried and they can shift to Berry or Kelly or Kobernus who will give a move certain performance, but likely with a lower potential breakout.
I’m a big Kelly supporter because I like all of the things he can do and he’s one of the nicest people on Earth, but the Tigers need to see if they can get anything else out of Brennan Boesch before they decide to call it quits. If the Boesch experiment fails, Kelly can jump right in and play the role he’s had for the last couple seasons.
What we have to remember here is that neither of these last two players is going to see a lot of the field, so the impact of each choice is very small. Worth seems like a smart call for me because of his defensive skill and I’d go with Boesch because you might get a few weeks of greatness.
There is still plenty of camp left for this to sort itself out, but for now, I’d tell Jim Leyland to put Worth and Boesch on his list to head north and see how it goes.
The Nine Best Third Basemen for 2013
Over the last number of Saturdays we have released our lists of The Nine best players at each position and this Saturday will be no different. Today, we unveil our list of the cream of the crop at the hot corner.
This list was actually quite easy compared to some of the others because there were seven obvious choices, leaving just two spots up for grabs. The order in the middle of the list is a bit fluid in my opinion, so don’t take it too seriously if you’re upset that your favorite player is sixth instead of fifth.
Third base is very good at the top, decent in the middle, but really falls off once we get passed the just missed portion of the list.
Apologies to: David Freese, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, Todd Frazier, Jeff Keppinger, and Pablo Sandoval.
9. Mike Moustakas (Royals)
Moustakas enters his age 24 season in 2013 and has shown himself to be a very good defensive player who can hit for power. His average could be higher, but it’s not terrible for such a young player. His key flaw is relatively weak plate discipline, but I expect that to improve to some degree as he ages. Moustakas is a former top prospect who could really make a leap this season and is coming off of a 3.5 WAR season in 2012, which was, you guessed it, 9th best in all of baseball.
8. Brett Lawrie (Blue Jays)
Lawrie was off the charts incredible in his 43 games stint in the big leagues in 2011, but took a bit of a step back in an injury shortened 2012. Lawrie was a good player last year, but he wasn’t a great player. I think he can be a great player this season given that he’s shown all of the necessary tools – power, speed, defense – at some point in the last eighteen months and is only 23 years old. If he plays like he did in 2011, he’ll be in the top three on this list, but even just a little better than his performance from 2012 should put him right about here on the list.
7. Aramis Ramirez (Brewers)
Even if you don’t believe that Ramirez improved his defense last season, a .300/.360/.540 slash line is impossible to ignore. He’s put together a couple of really nice seasons in 2011 and 2012 after a two year stretch where it looked like his once promising career would be over. He’s the oldest one on this list – already 34 – but he should have a place on it for at least one more season.
6. Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals)
When Ryan Zimmerman is healthy, he is an excellent baseball player. In seven major league seasons, he’s played a full season five times posting between a 4.4 and 7.5 WAR. In his two injury shortened years, he’s been a 2.5 WAR player. He played phenomenal defense early in his career but the injuries might be slowing that down, but injuries haven’t slowed his plate discipline and power. A fully healthy 28 year old Zimmerman could have an MVP type season, but he sits at sixth on this list because it’s getting difficult to believe he’ll be healthy all season.
5. Chase Headley (Padres)
Chase Headley is four seasons into his big league career and has seemingly improved his average and power over the last couple seasons. He is a switch hitter with good plate discipline while playing solid defense at third. The homerun numbers shot up in 2012 and with the fences coming in at Petco, he might have a shot to do it again. If last year didn’t happen, Headley would near the bottom of the list, but it did. I don’t want to put too much weight on one amazing season, but we also can’t ignore it.
4. David Wright (Mets)
Wright has an excellent season in 2012 and has had other excellent seasons in his career. My only concern with Wright is that in the three seasons prior to 2012, his defensive numbers were much worse that they were last season. I’m not sure Wright is a 7 WAR player going forward for that reason and imagine him more as a 5 WAR player for 2013. There’s nothing wrong with David Wright, but there is even less wrong with the next three on this list.
3. Adrian Beltre (Rangers)
Beltre is a great defender and hits for power in a big way. His only wart is that he doesn’t walk nearly enough. He’ll be 34 this season, but three of his best four seasons have come beyond thirty, so I’m not too worried about him falling off out of nowhere. If you want a slugger who can play defense, Beltre is a good way to go.
2. Evan Longoria (Rays)
Longoria’s career WAR/600 PA is 6.5. The only negative thing you can say about Longoria is that he’s only played two full seasons, two other seasons of 120-135 games, and one half season. He’s an elite defender who hits for power and has a great eye at the plate. Oh, and he’s 27. So there’s prime left in his career and has signed two of the most team friendly deals in MLB history. If you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of what he does.
1. Miguel Cabrera (Tigers)
If offense was the only thing that mattered here, Cabrera would be the only one near the top of this list. He’s easily the top offensive third baseman in baseball and has been remarkably consistent entering his age 30 season. On defense, he’s no star, but he proved last year he could handle the position well enough to make it work. His best three seasons have been his last three and boasts a career line of .318/.395/.561. That’s probably all that needs to be said.
Sound off in the comments section or to call into your local sports talk radio station and scream at them. Not about this list, but just in general.
2013 Preseason Power Rankings: 10-1
Over the last two days, SABR Toothed Tigers has released our 2013 MLB Preseason Power Rankings 30-21 and 20-11. Today, we complete the series and take you all the way through number one.
Remember, this list is designed to represent the expected performance of each team in 2013, but not necessarily the win totals of each team. For example, I project the Red Sox to be a better team than the Pirates but I expect the Pirates to win more games as a function of their league, division, and better relationship with an almighty deity than the team from Boston. Check back tomorrow for my Preseason Standings Prediction.
10. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are a very deep team with talent at about every position. The middle infield is a bit iffy going forward but those are two of the less important offensive positions and the rest of their lineup more than makes up for it. The rotation is a good mix of veterans and talented youngsters and the bullpen has a lot of exciting pieces. Nothing about the Cardinals makes me say “wow!” but everything about them makes me think they’re a very good team. I also can’t ignore the incredible comebacks/magic/voodoo/etc of the last two seasons. It’s usually not right to expect weird things to keep happening like that, but I’m not really looking to tempt fate.
9. Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are an interesting team because I can talk myself into a lot of different places on this list for them. Probably more so than any other team expect the Dodgers. They added Josh Hamilton, but lost Torii Hunter who was worth more than Hamilton in 2012. They’ll have an everyday role for Peter Bourjos who is among the very best defensive players walking the Earth and Albert Pujols likely won’t struggle as much as he did last April in any month of 2013. In just looking at the offense and defense, I would imagine the Angels should be about as good in 2013 as they were in 2012. But the pitching looks a lot worse. Jered Weaver should be the same as always and CJ Wilson likely won’t improve upon his 2012 numbers because he simply isn’t that good. After them, instead of Greinke or Haren, you have Joe Blanton, Tommy Hanson, and stuff. This rotation is pretty good if you want to win 80 games, but I think it’s awful if you want to win 95 like the Angels do. This team has the best player in the league (Trout), the best player of his era (Pujols), and a player with an impossibly high ceiling (Hamilton), but I just can’t bring myself to bet any higher on them with such a suspect pitching staff.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays did excellent work this offseason adding Melky Cabrera, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, and others. They are a much better team than they were in 2012 and could also get a full season from Jose Bautista. Even with expected regression from Edwin Encarnacion, this should be a team that scores runs and pitches well. I think they’ll be right in the thick of the AL East race and should also contend for a wild card. My reservations about placing them higher deal with a lot of injury question marks. Bautista is recovering from a wrist injury and hand and wrist injuries tend to have a negative effect on power. I’m not saying he’ll have a down season, but I think it’s more likely than it was before he got hurt. Additionally, while I think Josh Johnson is fantastic, he is also very fragile. Who knows what Melky Cabrera can do without the help of PEDs? Brandon Morrow missed significant time last season. Something was obviously wrong with Ricky Romero, right? So while on paper this is a talented team with a great chance at October baseball, there are concerns large enough to keep them at number eight.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants return an excellent pitching staff and good defensive club. A full season of Scutaro and Pence should be a marginal improvement, but losing the great “wind-aided” performance of Melky Cabrera will hurt with no clear replacement lined up. If Pablo Sandoval is healthy and Brandon Belt is allowed to do his thing without interference from a silly manager, this team should be on par with last year’s division winning club. It’s a good bullpen and the park tends to work in favor of the team’s design, so I’m willing to bet the Buster Posey led Giants are making another deep run into the postseason.
6. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds should have no trouble winning the NL Central if they are able to remain as healthy as their counterparts. They have the amazing Joey Votto at first and an average to above average player pretty much everywhere. They rotation remained perfectly intact last year and Aroldis Chapman is coming to help them out even more in 2013. With the addition of Choo, the maturing of Cozart and Fraizer, and the continued success of Bruce and Phillips, I can’t really see a glaring whole other than defense in centerfield. This is an all-around good club.
5. Texas Rangers
A lot of people are down on the 2013 Rangers because they didn’t sign or trade for any of their big offseason targets, but I think that means they’re very underrated. If we look at the 2012 Rangers as a pretty true 93 win club who had a bad week at the end, when we compare them to the 2013 version, they hold up great. The pitching should be essentially the same with perhaps a better performance by the adapting Darvish. On offense, they dropped Michael Young’s negative WAR at DH for Lance Berkman and will return everyone else except Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Top prospects Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt can easily combine with Craig Gentry and Leonys Martin to approximate the ~4WAR season of Josh Hamilton and AJ Pierzynski steps in to replace Napoli who had a down year on a team that won 93 games. While it can be said that the Rangers missed out on getting a lot better, they also failed to really get worse. This is the overlooked team of the year if you’re into making those types of wagers.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves added a lot this offseason (see: Uptons, all) but they also lost a good amount in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado. I like Andrelton Simmons and Freddie Freeman to breakout in compliment with Jason Heyward and the Upton brothers. The starting pitching is deep and the bullpen is second to none. The Braves aren’t the most exciting team in the league to me, but I think they have the highest floor. It’s hard for me to imagine them having much worse than an upper 80s win season.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
I’m higher on the Rays than most because I’ve seen them over-perform too many times not to believe. Their starting pitching is in the top five and their bullpen always works. They’ve added Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar on offense and are hoping for a full season of Evan Longoria to go with the soon to be called up Wil Myers. Top to bottom, the Rays are probably in the 6-10 range as far as talent goes, but they are so well run from top to bottom, that they will get more out of that talent than the other teams on this list.
2. Detroit Tigers
The 2012 Tigers underperformed and won 88 games. In 2013, they will add Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter and a full season of Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. They lost nothing of substance from the roster should get at least modest bounce back seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila. That is all by way of saying, it’s hard to see how they aren’t one of the surest bets in the league for 2013. 90 wins should be safe and 95-100 is a real possibility given the level of competition they face. They own baseball’s best rotation 1-5 and their only weaknesses are infield defense questions and bullpen uncertainty. And almost everyone has bullpen uncertainty so I can’t really hold that against them. Looking at the Tigers on paper, it’s hard to see how the defending AL champs won’t get a shot to play in October once more.
1. Washington Nationals
The Nationals earn this spot through logic similar to that which put the Tigers at number two. They added Denard Span, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Haren and lost only Edwin Jackson. With an unlimited Stephen Strasburg and a more experienced Bryce Harper, there isn’t an argument to be made that the Nats got worse for 2013. Granted, any team can collapse and underperform, but there is no reason to think the Nationals are any more likely to do so than any other team on this list. If the Nationals stay as healthy as their competitors in 2013, they should once again be baseball’s best team.
Tell us what you thought of the 2013 Preseason Power Rankings series in the comments, on Twitter, on Facebook, or via the United States Postal Service. Check back tomorrow for STT’s projected standings.
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