Bruce Rondon Returns
Bruce Rondon has nothing left to prove in Triple A. The minor leagues aren’t a challenge. He throws too hard for anyone to handle him. Tons of strikeouts, but also his share of walks. He hardly ever gave up runs, and has only allowed a few homers.
There’s just nothing left to prove. He might not be major league ready, but we’ll never know without putting him feet first into the fire. The Tigers bullpen has been taxed as the starters have stubbed their toes in the last few days and they needs reinforcements. The hot hand and the top relief prospect is the fireballing Rondon. It’s time.
I don’t know who he’s replacing just yet and I don’t know how Leyland plans to use him, but I have a suspicion we’ll see him pitching as the “closer” sooner rather than later. He’s exactly what Leyland and Dombrowski value in a closer. He throws hard, is kind of erratic, and has a “closer mentality.” I think most of that is nonsense, but I think he has what it takes to succeed in leverage situations, so I’m not going to cause a big fuss.
He’s going to strike batters out, but he’s going to walk some too. If you squint, you’ll probably think it’s Jose Valverde circa 2010 with a little extra on his fastball.
More than anything, he seems ready. I wrote a few weeks ago about how Castellanos should get the call when he’s ready, not when it makes financial sense. The same is true for Rondon. It’s especially true for Rondon because relievers have short shelf lives. Relievers are relievers because they’re fragile or have a limited repertoire, so let’s get all we can from them before they lose it.
Velocity peaks early, so let’s get everything we can out of his 100 mph arm. He averages 99.3 mph during his 2 inning stint in Detroit earlier this season. The slider is a good pitch, but the command is a problem. To get big leaguers out, he’s going to half to pitch against them. You can’t learn by facing hitters who can’t touch your fastball.
It’s time. It’s time to see what he has and give him a shot to learn. It’s also time for him to come under the tutelage of Jeff Jones, who might be some type of changeup and/or strikeout savant. (Also, this, this, and this)
Don’t overreact to his first appearance, good or bad. Don’t make up your mind based on small samples. Let’s go to Rondon and see what he can do. And remember, don’t look at saves.
But do look at SOEFA, the new reliever stat from New English D.
Closers Don’t Matter: Rondon, Dotel, Who Cares?
Alright guys, it’s time to have the talk. We’ve been putting it off for a while, but I think you’re ready. You’re starting to ask questions, and you should hear it from me.
Closers don’t matter.
I’m exaggerating a little bit. They matter because they’re one of your seven relievers and tend to pitch in close games. So it’s important that they aren’t bad, but they don’t matter in the way you think they do.
This is of importance because Tigers closer in waiting Bruce Rondon has struggled in Spring Training and everyone is starting to panic. “The Tigers need a proven closer!” they will say. “Rondon isn’t up to the task, we must find the Tigers a closer!” they are already saying.
But closers are just not as important as everyone thinks. You don’t need an experienced closer. You don’t need a closer at all. The Tigers would be great going closer by committee or to use Rondon. Or anyone who is reasonably competent.
Here’s why.
Saves Are Made Up
Saves are arbitrary. A three run or fewer lead? Bring in the closer! Four runs, forget about it. Why is it that a four run lead against the Angels isn’t a save but a three run lead against the Astros is? It makes no sense. You can also receive a save when you pitch horribly. If you come in with a three run lead and walk three and give up a hit, but then get the next three guys out, you get a save despite allowing more baserunners than outs.
Save are not a measure of performance, they are a measure of opportunity. If you gave the best reliever in baseball 50 save opportunities he would get 48 or 49 saves. If you gave the median reliever 50 save opportunities, he would get 44 or 45 saves. It does not require any sort of special skill to be a closer above and beyond pitching in any other inning.
The Ninth Inning Isn’t Always the Most Important
Why have we decided the last three outs are the most important and most difficult outs to get? If the middle of the order is up in the seventh inning of a one run game, that is when you should use your best reliever. If your closer is your best reliever, he should come into the game when it is most on the line.
If we were to assume that your closer is your best reliever, he should be used when you have the most to lose. That isn’t always the ninth inning. Don’t save him for an inning that might not come. The ninth inning is no different from any other inning.
Anyone Can Close
Think about this. A team’s All-Star closer goes down in Spring Training and will miss the whole season. They’re in trouble right? Wrong. They replace him with a middle reliever and they win the World Series. That happened last season.
Good relievers are good relievers. Use them and they will perform well. Sergio Romo wasn’t a proven closer and now, all of a sudden, he is one.
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There is no closer mentality or proven closer mold. If you can pitch in the eighth inning, you can pitch in the ninth. We’ve seen middle relievers become closers and we’ve seen lots of critical innings come and go with closers waiting for a save that never came.
I realize I’m trying to make two points at once, so let me break it down. 1) Anyone who is a reasonable good reliever can pitch in the closer role and rack up saves. 2) The idea of a closer who pitches the ninth inning of close games is silly.
Both points are relevant to the current Tigers situation, so let’s take them in turn.
First, Rondon can close. So can Dotel, Benoit, or Coke. You don’t need any special skills. They are all capable relievers who could easily thrive in the ninth inning because they have shown they are able to perform in the 6th, 7th, and 8th inning. Maybe you might think that Rondon hasn’t earned his keep, and I suppose we could discuss if he is actually not ready to pitch in the majors at all, but I think that he is. And I think he would be perfect for the role.
I think that, because of point number 2. Turning your relief ace into a closer who has a very limited job description means you can’t use him when you need him earlier in games. So, why not use your third best reliever as your closer and leave your best two guys to pitch when you need them more?
That’s exactly what you should do. If I can’t win the war and eliminate the position of closer entirely, what if instead, we just didn’t use our best reliever for that spot and instead, recognized that we can get the most out of our bullpen by using our best reliever in a more flexible fashion.
I want Dotel, Benoit, and Coke available to pitch whenever I need them. If that is the 6th inning, so be it. They are better than Rondon right now, so I’d rather have them for earlier in the game if I get into a jam. Rondon, being the closer, will always get to start with no one on base and will only pitch when he doesn’t have to rush to warm up. He’ll know in advance he’s pitching, so he won’t need to get loose in a hurry.
Hmmm. A young, erratic reliever with a ton of potential. What’s the best way to use him? In situations with no one on base after a well-paced warm up. Sounds exactly like the closer role to me.
Now it may be the case the Rondon simply isn’t ready for big league pitching. If that proves to be the case after Spring Training (Guys, it’s been two weeks!), then he should spend time in Toledo and we shouldn’t bother having a closer at all.
Saves are all in our heads. There is no latent save. It was made up in the 70s by a sportswriter who was apparently too dense to look at strikeouts and ERA. You shouldn’t get special credit for getting three outs in the ninth when someone else just got three outs in the eighth. Managers should use the reliever best suited for each situation as it comes up. If that means Coke in the 7th, Dotel in the 8th, Rondon in the 9th, great. If it means a different order, that’s fine too.
I’m not worried for a second about Rondon in the closer role. In fact, I would advocate for it. It’s better to have your best guys available to pitch in any inning rather than pigeonholed into a single one.
Of the ten closers with the most saves in 2012, only four had more than 10 saves in 2011. Good pitchers will get saves and there’s a good case to be made that you’re wasting your best reliever if you make him your closer.
Your closer isn’t any more important than your eighth inning guy. Or your seventh inning guy. Your closer is someone who gets saves, and saves don’t count in the standings.
So I hope the Tigers go with Rondon or Dotel or anyone on the current roster. They don’t need to sign a proven closer because you don’t have to be proven to succeed in the closer’s role and the closer’s role doesn’t even matter that much to begin with.
Unless you’re playing fantasy baseball. Then it matters a lot.
What do you think? Is Rondon the right fit for the closer’s role? Do we overvalue closers? If you answered anything but yes to the last question, read this article again and again until your answer changes.
New English D 