The Nine Best Aprils of the Last 10 Years
With April 2013 winding down and players such as Adam Wainwright and Justin Upton producing at very high levels, I thought it might be fun to revisit some of the best Aprils in recent memory. A few notes to start. First, March numbers are included for the few years that included 1-2 games in March because it’s simply too difficult to separate out that data and let’s face it, it’s pretty much the same thing. Second, I’ve determined these ranks by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) because it’s the easiest way to boil players down to one number who play different positions during different seasons. One shouldn’t treat this as a precise measure, but it’s the best we can do without inundating ourselves with information. Third, I haven’t included 2013 because it isn’t over yet and this is meant for you to compare this year’s performers with those performances past. For the years 2003-2012, The Nine Best Aprils follow.
9. Ryan Braun, 2011 (2.0 WAR)
Braun opened his MVP campaign in style with 26 games in April 2011. He hit 10 HR and posted a .367/.457/.724 line, good for a .496 wOBA and 220 wRC+. He would wind up hitting 33 HR over the course of the season with a 173 wRC+ and 7.3 WAR.
8. Alex Rodriguez, 2007 (2.1 WAR)
A-Rod, too, won the MVP in 2007 after a great April. He hit 14 HR and hit .355/.415/.882 to go with his .521 wOBA and 226 wRC+ during the first month and ended the year with 54 HR, a wRC+ of 175 and 9.6 WAR.
7. Alex Rodriguez, 2003 (2.1 WAR)
No this isn’t a typo and yes, Alex Rodriguez posted two separate 2.1 WAR in April in two separate MVP seasons in the last ten seasons. In this particular season, he hit 9 HR and posted a .355/.444/.673 slash line which produced a .472 wOBA and 188 wRC+. His season totals for 2003 were also impressive, with 47 HR, a .298/.396/.600 line, a 151 wRC+, and 9.1 WAR.
6. Matt Kemp, 2012 (2.2 WAR)
Just last year, Matt Kemp turned in an elite opening month by hitting 12 HR and delivering a .417/.490/.893 slash line to go with his .566 wOBA and 270 wRC+. Unfortunately for Kemp, injuries would shorten his season to 106 games and while he hit 23 HR and posted a .303/.367/.538 line, it would only be good for 3.2 WAR due to limited playing time.
5. Brian Roberts, 2005 (2.3 WAR)
Once upon a time, Roberts played an entire month of baseball without getting hurt. In April 2005, he hit 8 HR and stole 10 bases while posting a .379/.459/.726 line and a .496 wOBA and 214 wRC+. Roberts played well the rest of the season, and hit 18 HR and stole 27 bases to go with 140 wRC+ and a 9.4 UZR, but his 6.6 WAR wouldn’t be good enough to get him the MVP award that others on this list had coming.
4. Jose Bautista, 2011 (2.3 WAR)
2011 wouldn’t be an MVP year for Joey Bats, but his 9 HR in April and .366/.532/.780 line, wOBA of .541, and wRC+ of 249 would be good enough to put him on the path to a third place finish behind Justin Verlander and Jacoby Ellsbury. Bautista would finish the year with 43 HR, 182 wRC+, and 7.8 WAR. Nothing at which to sneeze.
3. Albert Pujols, 2006 (2.4 WAR)
Pujols delivered a superb April in 2006 enroute to a World Series win and 2nd place MVP finish. He hit 14 HR and .346/.509/.914 with a .548 wOBA and 240 wRC+. He’d finish the year with 8.2 WAR, 49 HR and a wRC+ of 174, but the voters wouldn’t ignore Ryan Howard’s 58 bombs.
2. Chase Utley, 2008 (2.5 WAR)
Howard’s teammate comes next on the list as Chase Utley posted great April 2008. His 11 HR, .360/.430/.766 line look awesome night to his .491 wOBA and 202 wRC+. He’d finish with 33 HR, 134 wRC+, and a 19.5 UZR, good for 8.0 WAR, but Pujols (who had a nice April 2008) beat him out for MVP. That doesn’t bother me much, as Pujols had a slightly better season. What does bother me, however, is that Utley somehow finished 14th despite having the second highest WAR.
1. Barry Bonds, 2004 (2.8 WAR)
Well you knew this was coming. 2004 would be Bonds’ final MVP season and he (and maybe some chemicals) certainly earned it. In April he hit 10 HR and posted an insane .472/.696/1.132 line to go with an otherworldly .673 wOBA and 322 wRC+. No one else is even the same conversation. He would conclude that season with 43 HR and a 233 wRC+ and 11.6 WAR.
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It’s probably worth noting that the only one on this list who didn’t have a fantastic season was Matt Kemp, who simply got hurt. So if you have a 2.0 WAR type April, you’re probably in line for an awesome season. You have a great shot at an MVP award, too. Mr. Upton and Mr. Wainwright, things look good.
How Was The Game? (April 27, 2013)
A nice bounce back for Porcello.
Tigers 7, Braves 4
The Tigers came into today’s game on a high note thanks to a 10-0 win on Friday, but the starting pitcher, Rick Porcello was coming off his worst performance by results of his career. The Tigers would provide him with 7 runs thanks in part to homeruns by Peralta and Infante and Porcello wouldn’t need more. His only issue came in the 3rd inning when he allowed 3 runs, but none of the balls were hit hard and three batters reached via infield groundballs. His only real mistake was a bases loaded walk to Dan Uggla. Aside from the 3rd inning, Porcello allowed just one hit over his 6.1 innings of work while striking out 5 and using his changeup more effectively than I can ever remember. Smyly finished the 7th with two strikeouts and Benoit got three outs in the 8th despite allowing a Justin Upton homerun. Leyland called for Valverde in the 9th for his second appearance of the season and he retired the Braves in order. With the win, the Tigers improve to 12-10 on the season and set themselves up to go for a sweep of the Braves on Sunday night behind Doug Fister (27 IP, 3-0, 2.00 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 0.5 WAR).
The Moment: Infante delivers a 2-out homer in the 4th to put the Tigers ahead for good.
The Morning Edition (April 27, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Normally we don’t talk Tigers here, but check out Anibal Sanchez striking out 17 Braves in a 10-0 win
- Jordan Zimmermann twirls a CGSO against the Reds in a 1-0 win (91 pitches, 1 hit)
- Kyle Kendrick also delivers a CGSO in a 4-0 win over the Mets
- Rizzo delivers 2 homeruns in a 4-3 win over the Fish
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lefties face off in New York as Sabathia and Happ duel (4p Eastern)
- Under-the-radar standouts, Burnett and Garcia, battle in St. Louis (4p Eastern)
- Must-see Matt Moore faces the White Sox (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez takes the hill (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which great performance was your favorite, Sanchez, Zimmermann, or Kendrick?
Friday was a fun night if you like pitching. You can read about Anibal Sanchez’s 17 strikeout night here, but Zimmermann and Kendrick delivered excellent performances as well. Sorry, Kendrick, but yours was the least interesting. Sanchez went 8 and struckout 17 and Zimmermann went 9 and only needed 91 pitches. Textbook examples of two kinds of domination. Sanchez overpowered and went with strikeouts and Zimmermann just induced easy out after easy out. If you have the time, go watch the highlights and enjoy. Man, great pitching is fun. Sorry to Rizzo, Encarnacion, and Beltran, but multi-homer games don’t measure up.
How Was The Game? (April 26, 2013)
A good old fashion whooping.
Tigers 10, Braves 0
Many, if not all, baseball observers would likely tell you that the Atlanta Braves have been the best team in baseball over the first four weeks of the 2013 season. The Tigers did not seem to care on Friday night as they opened their interleague series against the Braves by destroying them. Not only did the Tigers score 10 runs, but they did so against one of the best rotations in the league and one of the hottest starting pitchers in Paul Maholm. If that wasn’t enough, Anibal Sanchez violated the Braves hitters by striking out 17 in 8 innings while walking just 1 and allowing 5 hits and no runs. Those 17 strikeouts are a Tigers franchise record for a pitcher in a 9 inning game. Put another way, the Tigers had their best offensive output in the same game that they received their best pitching performance, all while playing the league’s best team. All in all, that’s a good day at the office as they improve to 11-10. Sanchez’s line earns him a remarkable -0.88 FIP for the day and lowers his season ERA and FIP to 1.34 and 1.36, respectively. By WAR, he’s now tied for 2nd best for a pitcher in the majors this season with Yu Darvish (1.7) thanks to a 10.96 K/9 and 1.13 BB/9. The Tigers will look to take the series behind Porcello tomorrow afternoon against Kris Medlen.
The Moment: Anibal Sanchez delivers his 17th strikeout to set a career and franchise record.
The Morning Edition (April 26, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valbuena homers in the 9th to lift the Cubs over the Marlins 4-3
- Buehrle continues to struggle, allows 3 HR to the Yankees in 5-3 loss
- Harper and Espinosa power Gio to a win over the Reds
- Buchholz K’s 10 Astros enroute to a 7-2 victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- After a terrible first start, Scott Kazmir takes another shot on the comeback trail against the Royals (8p Eastern)
- Chen and Milone face off as last year’s Cinderella’s meet in Oakland (10p Eastern)
- Lincecum looks to stay on track against hard throwing Cashner and the Padres (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Have you seen the Yu Darvish .gif? You must. You just must.
As I often do in the space below the Morning Edition, I’d like to highlight a weird early season set of statistics. Most would tend to consider wRC+ the best catch-all offensive metric, and as I sort the 2013 leaderboard by said metric a variety of names expected and unexpected rise to the top. The player who ranks 11th as I write this (11:21pm April 25) is Braves 3rd basemen Chris Johnson with 176 wRC+. I’m not going to make the case that this makes Johnson an MVP candidate or anything silly like that, but I would like to point out that he is, by out best single number, one of the best dozen hitters in baseball over the first four weeks. What makes that so interesting is that he is doing so while walking a preposterously small amount, just 3% of the time. Usually when someone is near the top of the leaderboards this early, we talk about negative regression to the mean, but Johnson’s walk rate is so low it can only regress upward. Don’t get me wrong, the dude doesn’t walk, but he’s never walked less than 4% of the time in the major leagues, so that should get marginally better, or at least not worse. The next player on the list who walks less than Johnson is JP Arencibia, who is 44th ranked. Johnson’s line looks like this: .397/.424/.556. He has the same wRC+ as Prince Fielder who has walked 17% of the time while hitting for more power! How is this so? Well Johnson is hitting .397, which is very high and very BABIP driven (.460). He is a high BABIP guy (career .353), but that should come down to some degree and he’ll settle in closer to his career mark of 104 wRC+, which is nothing at which to sneeze. Now if only he could play defense (career UZR -34.9 in 365 games).
How Was The Game? (April 25, 2013)
Great, until the bullpen showed up.
Royals, 8, Tigers 3
Two of the better starters in the AL over the last couple of seasons hooked up for a matinee on Thursday at Comerica Park and did a fairly good job limiting the offensive output. Verlander surrendered 2 runs over 7 innings and Shields held the Tigers to 3 over 8. After Verlander left the game with “cracked skin” on his thumb (which has to be the lamest injury you can have!), Leyland called for the rookie Bruce Rondon, who surrendered the tying run in the 8th inning. Rondon wasn’t particularly ineffective in his MLB debut, but he wasn’t brilliant and the Tigers would need to deliver a walk off win to overcome his appearance and they would need it to come in extra innings after Collins retired them in order in the 9th. Unfortunately, Phil Coke had other ideas and melted down in the top of the 10th allowing a double, walk, wild pitch, intentional walk, and another walk to give up the lead with just one out. He left the bases loaded for Darin Downs who allowed a grand slam before getting out of the inning with the score 8-3. The loss drops the Tigers to 10-10 on the season with the Braves coming to town for a weekend set starting tomorrow. It will be Maholm and Sanchez for game one.
The Moment: Gordon puts it out of reach with a bomb to dead center.
Yu Darvish and the Most Incredible .GIF
This site is devoted primarily to the Detroit Tigers and secondarily to baseball as a whole, and this post will concern the latter. It will be very short and direct.
A gentleman in the comments section of the Rangers blog Lone Star Ball created this masterpiece that features Yu Darvish throwing each of his pitches at one time. The creator is Drew Shepherd and he has done superb work. Go watch it.
The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
How Was The Game? (April 24, 2013)
Not one for purists.
Tigers 7, Royals 5
It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. The Tigers got ahead early, but Scherzer struggled in the 3rd inning and gave up 4 runs. The Tigers paid Wade Davis back and hung 7 runs on him and chased him after just 11 outs, so things evened out thanks to Cabrera, Martinez, and Peralta. The offense did their part, but Scherzer inconsistently worked through 5 and relied on his bullpen for the final four innings. Alburquerque and Benoit got the Tigers to the 9th, at which point it was time for the return of Jose Valverde, who Leyland put right back into the closer role without a second thought. The reception was mostly positive from the hometown crowd as he arrived to the mound for his first outing in 2013. He went to his fastball for all 18 pitches and got all three Royals he faced despite a long fly ball to Dirks for the final out. It seems fitting a game that featured 13 walks would end with a Valverde return to the 9th inning. He got the job done, but I didn’t see anything from him that makes me less concerned about his return. Verlander and Shields suit up tomorrow for the series finale at 1pm.
The Moment: Victor Martinez is thrown out by 30 feet at home plate in the 4th inning and decides to simply walk to the dugout instead of face a collision or slide at the plate. Tom Brookens is comforted by Gene Lamont.
Dynamic Standings Projection (April 24, 2013)
In case you missed it, earlier this month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 23 games.
New English D 