Tag Archives: astros

The Morning Edition (July 2, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Harper homers in his return from the DL, Nats beat the Crew
  • Fernandez goes 8 scoreless with 10 K to lead the Marlins over the Friars
  • Matt Moore strikes out many Astros

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Strasburg takes on the Brewers (7p Eastern)
  • NERD darling Kluber looks to bounce back (8p Eastern)
  • Price returns from the DL to face the Astros (8p Eastern)
  • Kershaw battles Oswalt at Coors (830p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What about the young pitchers?

So much attention is paid to the Trout, Harper, Machado…Puig(?) talk, but the game’s young starters are having some fun too. Obviously Harvey is getting the bulk of the attention because he’s ripping off a Cy Young season, but Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are now 17th and 18th in park adjusted FIP- in all of baseball and both have ERA’s below 3.00. These guys are having great seasons, and that doesn’t even include Patrick Corbin, all the way down at 21st.

The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
  • Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
  • Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
  • Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
  • Darvish beats Latos
  • The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
  • Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
  • Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
  • Sox walk off on the Jays

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
  • Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
  • Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • What’s a realistic season for Puig?

The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.

The Morning Edition (June 26, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • Chris Sale went 8, gave up 2 ER, had 13 K and left with the lead. He didn’t get the win. The guy who blew the save did.
  • Matt Moore does a Matt Moore impression with 11 K and 6 BB, wins
  • The Red Sox score 11 without a HR
  • Ichiro walks off as Darvish and Kuroda are ordinary
  • Casilla hit as many homeruns as Chris Davis, 1 each

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Felix faces the Pirates (330p Eastern)
  • Zimmermann takes the hill (7p Eastern)
  • Cole Hamels against the Padres (10p Eastern)
  • Kershaw and Lincecum (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Come on guys, can we leave Chris Sale alone?

Seriously, I want to discredit the win stat too, but can it not keep happening to the same guy. But. BUT! Let’s play a game regarding Astros pitcher Erik Bedard. Let’s explore his ERA and FIP by month:

pic1

He’s getting a lot better each month. This is good news. I bet he’s striking out more batters than he was at the beginning of the season.

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Oh. Well. I bet he’s walking fewer people!

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Well he is, but he’s still walking and awful lot of people. Hmmm, this is tricky. Maybe it’s because he is allowing fewer homeruns?

pic4

Yeah, that’s probably it. Sorry, Bedard this probably isn’t sustainable!

Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.

Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.

Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.

Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).

57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)

Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS

51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)

Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS

49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)

Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS

19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)

Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS

18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)

McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH

11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)

All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH

9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)

Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH

8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)

Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT

7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH

6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)

I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT

5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)

Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS

4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)

Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:

pic1

I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS

3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)

Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT

2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)

Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT

1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)

Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:

pic2

Not bad. HIT

Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.

The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
  • Kazmir dominates the Twins
  • Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
  • Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
  • Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
  • Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
  • NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
  • Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?

As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:

But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.

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The Morning Edition (June 21, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Wright homers twice, but the Mets lose Niese in win against the Braves
  • Longoria’s 2 HR lift the Rays over the Yanks
  • Zimmermann dominates the Rockies, but Oswalt gets 11 K of his own as Nats win 5-1
  • Pena walks off on the Crew in 10
  • Another Puig HR

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Strasburg looks to build on a solid first start back (7p Eastern)
  • Cole goes to LA to face Weaver (10p Eastern)
  • Clayton Kershaw faces similarly named Clayton Richard (10p Eastern)
  • Colon and Iwakuma (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Who would you honor with the NL All-Star start?

There are a number of good candidates depending on what statistics you value:

WAR: 

Wainwright, Harvey, Lee, and Kershaw

FIP:

Harvey, Wainwright, Miller, Kershaw, Lee

ERA:

Kershaw, Locke (!), Miller, Harvey, Corbin, Wainwright, Zimmermann

K/9:

Miller, Burnett, Samardjiza, Harvey, Lynn

Wins (LOL!):

Wainwright, Lee, Corbin, Zimmermann, Lynn, and Marquis

Wainwright is probably having the best season, but I’d be completely happy with Harvey given that the game is at Citi Field and he’s one of the game’s brightest young stars. Kershaw, Lee, and Miller are all very deserving as well. Right now, I’d go with Waino or Harvey. You?

The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
  • Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
  • Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
  • Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
  • Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
  • Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
  • The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
  • Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
  • Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
  • Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?

Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star. 

The Morning Edition (June 12, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • The Dbacks and Dodgers trade serious beanballs, brawl in LA, many suspensions to come
  • Cole goes 6.1 in his MLB debut as the Pirates beat the Giants
  • The Jays tie it in the 9th and win it in the 10th against the White Sox
  • Kluber goes 8 to end the Indians’ skid
  • Cingrani and the Reds unload on Garza and the Cubs
  • Stanton homers in the 8th to avoid spoiling Turner’s strong outing
  • Rays shell Lester
  • Harang CGSO

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Shelby Miller goes to Citi Field (7p Eastern)
  • Corbin and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
  • Bonderman gets the Astros in Seattle (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • So, no hard feelings between the Dodgers and Dbacks?

Hardly the case. Greinke hit Ross early in the game (not intentional at all), but things heated up when Kennedy hit Puig in the 6th and Greinke retaliated by hitting Montero in the 7th. Greinke came to the plate in the 7th and Kennedy hit him in the head, precipitating a massive bench clearing brawl that featured grown men tackling each other and punches being thrown. I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need to curtail this type of behavior in baseball. I wasn’t watching the game, so I don’t know which pitch was the one that started it, but everyone carries some blame for keeping it going. I hope MLB suspends everyone involved because there is just no place for this in the game. Intentional beaning is dangerous and childish, especially when it’s up around the head, but it’s even more ridiculous for adults to run onto the field and start fighting. I have no problem with certain members of the teams coming out to talk and yell about it, but it’s not appropriate to settle these things with violence. If this happened somewhere other than the field of play, there would be arrests. It reflects poorly on the sport, even if people enjoy it.

The Morning Edition (June 10, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

 

From Last Night:

  • Felix out duels Phelps, but the Yanks score on the M’s pen to win 2-1
  • Puig has 3 hits, but the Braves pound the Dodgers 8-1
  • EJax is strong as the Cubs beat the Bucs
  • Lohse goes 8 strong as the Brewers beat the Phils
  • The O’s gets 6 HR to outslug the Rays
  • Zimmermann goes 7 as the Nats blank the Twins

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Silent ace Alex Cobb faces the Red Sox (7p Eastern)
  • Kershaw goes against the Dbacks (10p Eastern)
  • Iwakuma gets the Astros at Safeco (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • How’s everyone enjoying Yasiel Puig?

I haven’t written much about Puig because he’s been playing on the coast and I usually write this post before games end out west. So far, he’s hitting .464/.483/.964, good for 307 wRC+. That’s pretty good by any measure, even if it is just 29 PA. Puig certainly won’t hit like this for the whole season, but he’s impressing early and fans are loving him. It’s almost as if the Dodgers shouldn’t have traded for Crawford and/or extended Andre Ethier into their declines. It will be interesting to see what they do once everyone gets healthy, but such a scenario doesn’t look good for Ethier who has been worth 0.1 WAR in 228 PA. For perspective, that’s less than Zach Greinke has in 16 PA. Zach Greinke, the pitcher.

The Morning Edition (June 7, 2013)

Clip art illustration of a Cartoon Tiger with a Missing Tooth

From Last Night:

  • The first night of the MLB Draft features some surprises, Appel, Bryant, Gray go 1-2-3
  • Rosales’ 10th inning HR beats the White Sox
  • Four run 8th gets the Royals past the Twins
  • Miller, after being named to my Appointment TV list, Ks 9 in 6 innings and homers as the Cards beat the Dbacks
  • Ortiz walks off as Holland and Lester both meander through 6

What I’m Watching Today:

  • Middle rounds of the MLB Draft (1p Eastern)
  • Harvey and Hernandez face off in New York (7p Eastern)
  • Wainwright faces the Reds (7p Eastern)
  • Lee heads to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
  • Cain versus Corbin in Arizona (930p Eastern)
  • Kuroda gets Bonderman’s 2nd start (10p Eastern)

The Big Question:

  • Which clubs will look back on last night as a building block en route to a title?

I’m not the world’s best guy for draft analysis, but I’ll give you my brief thoughts. First of all, if you’re looking for who went where, I can direct you here, among other places. The reason I’m not the best guy for draft analysis is not because I don’t know anything about amateur baseball, but rather because I don’t like to give analysis that isn’t based on my own observation. Almost everyone who was and will be drafted this weekend are guys I haven’t seen myself, so I’d rather direct you to guys like Keith Law or Jonathan Mayo or Baseball America. I could give you reports about guys based on things I’ve read, but you can read. I’m much more useful to you as someone who analyzes baseball players I’ve seen in person and on TV and in the box score. I have, however, seen Colin Moran, who went 6th overall to the Marlins. He’s a 3B with a great approach and a very good hit tool. Some question if the power will come and if he can stick at third, but I’m bullish there. I don’t think he’ll be a star, but a good approach can play for me. Here are some picks I liked from the first day:

Plenty of teams got good players, but those stand out to me as teams who made good choices when presented with a lot of options.