How Was The Game? (July 21, 2013)
A nice win.
Tigers 4, Royals 1
After two narrow losses to start the series, the Tigers took the final game in the set thanks to a solid outing from Doug Fister (8-5, 127 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 2.6 WAR) and a couple of solo homeruns from Cabrera and Dirks to go along with two Brayan Pena sac flies and good days at the plate from Fielder and Martinez. After a few rough outings, Fister’s 6 IP, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K performance was a welcome sight that helped the team avoid a sweep at the hands of the Royals and James Shields with a four game set with the White Sox looming. They’ll hop a plane to Chicago at 53-44 on the season and will call upon Max Scherzer (13-1, 129.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 4.0 WAR) to start on Monday.
The Moment: Dirks’ homerun just barely clears the fence…and Dyson’s glove.
How Was The Game? (July 20, 2013)
A little sloppy all around.
Royals 6, Tigers 5
Justin Verlander (10-7, 131.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.0 WAR) didn’t have his best night, allowing 6 runs (5 earned) across 5.2 innings of work that included 8 hits and 4 walks to go with just 3 strikeouts. He did a nice job avoiding catastrophic damage and gave the Tigers a shot to claw back. He left the game with his team trailing 6-5 courtesy of 2 in the 1st, 1 in the 2nd, and 2 in the 5th thanks to solid production from the middle of the order and a big night for Avila. The Tigers had a great scoring chance in the 8th when the first two men reached, but Leyland gave away an out by having Jackson bunt and then Hunter and Cabrera grounded out before the Tigers could score and the Tigers were unable to knock in Hernan Perez in the 9th who pinch ran after a Martinez double. The Tigers will look to salvage one in the series on Sunday with Doug Fister (7-5, 121 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 2.6 WAR) set to take the hill
The Moment: Dirks beats out ground ball on a botched defensive play by Hosmer and Guthrie to set up two runs.
Torii Hunter Has Kept It Up
Aside from re-upping with Anibal Sanchez, the Tigers big offseason move was signing Torii Hunter to a two year deal to man RF at Comerica Park. He was coming off of a career year in which he posted a rather high Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) which led most to believe he wouldn’t perform as well in 2013 as he did in 2012.
That’s a pretty simple belief and one that had a lot of merit. Players don’t often make dramatic changes to their offensive approach in their late 30s and have career renaissances. But after almost 100 games in 2013, it’s starting to look like Hunter’s change is real and sustainable and that he might just be the player he was last year.
Let’s start with a couple quick points. His defensive and baserunner numbers are way down this season. He’s playing around league average in the field and on the bases despite very good numbers in 2012. I can fully confirm the defensive issues as Hunter has made his share of bonehead plays in RF. In general, he’s not the great defender he once was, but he’s been perfectly serviceable out there and is a big step up from Brennan Boesch.
This post is about his offense because that’s the interesting thing. Let’s start with the basic career trends before we get into the last two seasons. If we just look at his basic offensive rate, he’s aged pretty well (what’s wRC+?)
But the key with Hunter was that he used to hit for more power with a lower on base. As he’s aged, those numbers have trended in opposite directions:
It’s not the easiest thing to see, but notice how his OBP has been picking up late in his career while his slugging is consistently much lower than it was from 2002-2009. This might make some sense if Torii was becoming a more selective hitter who drew more walks, but that’s not happening:
Um…what? Hunter is getting his offensive value from his new found OBP, but he’s walking substantially less that he used to. This is quite interesting. Obviously, you’ve figured out by now that the only way to do this is to substantially improve your batting average:
So this is a pretty clear story. Hunter is picking up his offensive value as he’s gotten older by getting on base via hits more often and hitting for less power than his younger self. In 2012 he posted a career high batting average and in 2013 is just ahead of that pace as I write this. Hunter is having another great offensive season relative to his career norm and age, and he’s doing it with fewer walks and long balls and more base hits.
He’s where the sustainability comes into play. As you can read about at the BABIP link above, you know that significant deviations from career BABIP norms are usually the kind of thing that won’t sustain themselves and players will revert back to normal. Here’s Hunter’s BABIP:
So that’s way different from anything he’s ever done. Early in his career he pushed .330 a couple times but he’s above .360 the last two seasons. What’s going on here? Well the reports are he has changed his approach as he’s aged in acknowledgement that he is no longer the power bat who hits for extra bases, but now it’s his job to get on for Pujols last year and Cabrera this year.
At the end of last season the word on Hunter was that he had a great year but a lot of it was luck driven by a high-unsustainable BABIP. Well he’s doing it again. We’re now at the point where Hunter has done this for almost 1,000 plate appearances, so it’s time to start believing. The Angels gave him Pujols in 2012 and then he moved to the Tigers in 2013 and got Cabrera, which instructed Hunter that his role would now be different and he would change his approach accordingly.
I’m now at the point where I think this is a real sustainable change. We’ve heard him talk about changing as he’s aged, but anyone can have a lucky year. We’re now to the point where it looks like this is for real. Take a look at his 2012 and 2013 numbers next to each other. Remember LA is a tougher park, but otherwise, this is crazy:
Hunter is doing pretty much the exact same thing he did last season. More hits, fewer walks, less power than his career numbers and a much higher BABIP. This is the new Torii Hunter and it’s real. It’s not luck. He’s different and it’s working. He may not be the defender or runner he once was, but he’s still league average in a corner and is something close to 20% better than league average at the plate. He’s gone from a power guy with a low on base like Adam Jones to a high OBP, lower power guy that’s just as valuable. That’s pretty good adaptation.
He’s posting the highest swing percentage and highest contact rates of his career. Here’s where it gets good. You can see it in other data. Check out his batted ball data, which only exists back to 2002:
He’s cutting down on fly balls in exchange for more line drives and ground balls. He knows he doesn’t have the power he used to, so now he’s becoming a singles hitter who occasionally swings for the fences. It’s this type of change that leads me to believe the BABIP change is real and sustainable. Hunter is swinging more and making more contact while hitting the ball in the air less. That’s exactly what I’d tell someone to do if they were aging and trying to stay valuable without a great eye at the plate. Hunter has had some good walking years, but it’s never been his strong suit. Instead of adding discipline in his golden years, he’s adding singles. And it’s working.
Torii Hunter is on track for a 2.5-3.0 WAR season despite very pedestrian defensive and baserunning numbers. He’s doing a very nice job at the plate and there’s no reason to think it’s a fluke. The Tigers gambled on Hunter’s new approach being real and it’s working for them as much as it’s working for him.
How Was The Game? (July 19, 2013)
Pretty quiet, but nice to have it back.
Royals 1, Tigers 0
The second half of the season got off to a bit of a slow start for the Tigers as they didn’t manage to provide any support for Anibal Sanchez (7-7, 98 IP, 2.85 ERA, 2.44 FIP, 3.3 WAR) who pitched in and out of traffic but avoided much damage, finishing with 6 innings of 1 run baseball, despite a hefty number of walks. The Tigers only put up 2 hits for their part and had quite a few balls die on the warning track. There’s not much else to say other than that the Tigers did a nice job preventing runs but couldn’t muster any of their own. They’ll be back at it on Saturday behind Justin Verlander (10-6, 126 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.0 WAR) who looks to build off an impressive first half finale.
The Moment: Fielder scolds Cain into tagging himself out on a weak ground ball.
Tigers Second Half Preview and Top Moments of the First 94 Games
Let us begin to look forward first by looking back. During the first “half” of the 2013 season the Detroit Tigers were baseball’s best pitching staff with 17.1 WAR (what’s WAR?), a 3.26 FIP (what’s FIP?), and a 3.35 xFIP (what’s xFIP?). In fact, their starting rotation, when adjusting for park and league average, is the best starting staff in MLB history at 76 FIP-. The offense didn’t turn in an historic first half, but they were excellent, posting an MLB best 114 wRC+ (what’s wRC+?) and the fourth best position player WAR at 17.1.
There’s pretty much no case to be made that the Tigers aren’t one of baseball’s best teams so far, and there is no indication that will slow down in during the season’s final two months.
Some may fret that the Tigers are only on pace for 90 wins and that the Indians are hanging around their heels, but the Tigers have done this in each of the last two seasons and rode a strong final few weeks into the postseason. This is a veteran team that understands how to deal with the fatigue that comes in the dog days of August and should have no trouble coasting into the postseason.
They’ve had some bullpen issues, but with Valverde out of the mix Leyland is no longer intellectually trapped into using the wrong relief pitchers and is routinely turning to Smyly and Benoit in big situations. He has other talent down there and if Rondon can isolate his rough days, the Tigers should be able to hold together a reasonably good ‘pen with only a minor addition or two in late July.
The Tigers have obviously been lifted by an amazing season by Miguel Cabrera (205 wRC+) and more solid performances by Jhonny Peralta, Austin Jackson, and Omar Infate. Hunter and Fielder have had their issues, but have generally been contributing on offense well enough to make it work. Dirks hasn’t hit, but he’s played great defense and Tuiasosopo has given the Tigers 100 amazing PA out of nowhere. Avila has struggled, but has shown signs of life since coming off the DL.
The key to it all, likely is Victor Martinez, who was extremely unlucky on hard hit balls early in the season and has somehow managed to shake the curse over the last six weeks and has returned to form. If he keeps it up, the Tigers will be swatting away the competition with very little effort.
The Tigers have an all-time great starting rotation, the league’s best offense, and a bullpen that can do no worse than the did during the first half. The defense isn’t great, but the good pieces can carry the bad ones far enough. They should coast to an AL Central title barring any sort of significant injury, or ehem, suspensions. Since that seems too clear, let’s consider what the team has to do down the stretch to set themselves up for October success.
1. Manage the Outfield
One of the most interesting issues for the Tigers going forward will be how they handle left field. Currently, they are running a platoon with Dirks (who is a great defensive player this season) and Tuisasosopo (who is crushing like he’s Cabrera). It’s been a very effective tandem that has combined for a 9.0 UZR and .341 OBP while in LF. Alone, neither is a player worth blocking a top prospect for, but together they’ve been quite the weapon. Lurking, however, is Nick Castellanos who is offering a .281/.353/.455 line in Toledo and is probably MLB ready. How the Tigers work this situation will be key for their long term success. There is no sure way of knowing which move will give the Tigers the best shot at playing well for three weeks in October, but if they Tigers plan to test the Castellanos waters, they should probably see what they have sooner rather than later so they can correct any problems.
2. Find One More Arm
The Tiger bullpen gets a lot of grief, but Benoit and Smyly are two of the best couple relievers in baseball this season and the unit as a whole is respectable in most statistical categories. Without having to worry about Valverde blowing easy leads, the Tigers are actually in pretty good shape. They have a great pair for high leverage situations and have Rondon and Alburquerque who can shut hitters down with the best of them if you’re willing to accept the occasional meltdown. Phil Coke is better than he’s pitched, but even if he can simply get himself on track to shut down the occasional lefty, things should be fine for him. After that, you’re looking at a mix of Putkonen, Reed, and Downs (when healthy) to handle the lower leverage moments. I think all of those guys are solid options at the 6 and 7 spot in the pen and Downs has shown flashes that he could be something more. If the Tigers could just add one middle reliever who you can trust to give you consistent innings in 3-4 run games or to spell Benoit or Smyly in tight games, they should be all set. Dotel was supposed to be that guy, but he hasn’t thrown an inning since April and likely won’t be back any time soon. Jesse Crain would be a great addition, but the Tigers probably don’t even need someone that effective. Anyone reasonably competent without big platoon split will do.
3. Get Prince Slugging
Prince Fielder (123 wRC+) isn’t having a bad season, but he’s not having a Prince Fielder season. He’s had ups and downs in his career and usually bounces back, but the Tigers are going to need a strong push from their slugging 1B if they’re going to be playing when the leaves turn brown.
4. Don’t Touch Martinez
I’ve been pretty clear about Martinez being unlucky early in the season on hard hit balls and fully expecting things to even out. They are evening out right now. No one touch anything. Don’t tempt fate. Don’t even sneeze around VMart. He’s back to his old ways. Don’t be the one who screws it up.
5. Let Verlander Be Verlander
JV is having an excellent season by normal pitcher standards. He’s 9th in WAR for crying out loud. But by his standards he’s a little below where you’d like him to be. Accept that he’s getting older and won’t be as consistently brilliant all the time. Stop trying to get him to tinker and stop focusing on his issues. He’ll figure it out and even when he’s not “his normal self” he’s better than almost everyone.
6. Baby Steps with Avila
Avila was lost at the plate before going on the DL and has picked up a bit since coming back. You’re not going to get great production from Alex at C, just focus on good game calling and marginal offensive improvements. This is a great offense without him, just get him playing a little better and everything will be fine.
7. Keep Everyone Else Healthy
Peralta and Infante are having great seasons and Hunter is doing a serviceable job in RF. You don’t need these guys killing themselves out there every day to try and win 100 games. Give them plenty of rest and make sure they are performing at their best into October.
8. Just Get Out of Cabrera’s Way
This one’s easy. He’s the best hitter in the game, potentially on track for an all time great season. Just let the guy do his thing and enjoy.
9. Think About The Bench
The Tigers are in a tricky spot running their LF platoon because it gives them a bench that consists of the left fielder who isn’t playing and Kelly, Santiago, and Pena. Kelly is having a good season as a reserve (109 wRC+) and Pena is a necessity, but if the Tigers have to carry a middle infielder, you’re stuck with Santiago. This isn’t a problem for a long season, but they could use another bat off the bench in October and if Dirks isn’t swinging they are somewhat limited. You’d like a lefty power bat in place of a relief pitcher for the postseason, but the trick is where you find one. Lennerton is doing well in Toledo but doesn’t seem to have the attention of MLB minds and the Tigers don’t have anyone else in the system who fits the profile. You can pick a guy like that up in a deal, but to do that you have to have a roster spot that the team currently doesn’t have. It’s a bit tricky to make work with their current defensive game and it’s something worthy of consideration.
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All in all, the Tigers are poised for a big second half and should have little trouble making the playoffs if everyone stays on the field. They have a great staff and offense and have been in this situation before. They need to prepare themselves for the grueling playoff push as they have hopes of winning four additional games and throwing a parade in early November.
It’s been a fun season and I’m looking forward to the last few months. If you’re new to the site, welcome. This is a place to both think analytically and to relax and enjoy. Baseball is fun. Go Tigers.
Here are the top 10 moments of 2013 so far (this was hard):
Apologies to: JV’s two no-hit tries, the Sale/Putkonen beanball affair, Fielder hitting the catwalk, Peralta’s walk off homerun, Porcello’s dominating outings, and the 4 HR inning Baltimore.
10. Brookens sends Martinez home and instead of being tagged out by 30 feet, Victor just turns toward the dugout.
9. Verlander heads to the other dugout entrance to avoid the Handshake of Doom.
8. Cabrera homers 3 times on Sunday Night Baseball in Texas.
7. Sanchez strikes out 17.
6. Sanchez takes a no-hitter into the 9th.
5. Victor Martinez makes a circus play against the Red Sox.
4. Brayan Pena tags out Nick Swisher on a ball Swisher thought was foul.
3. Alex Avila swats a 9th inning go-ahead bomb in Houston.
2. Max Scherzer strikes out Chris Davis with the bases loaded.
1. Brayan Pena absorbs a tackle from Justin Smoak to secure a 14 inning win in Seattle.
Was My Favorite Player Any Good?
It’s no secret that younger baseball fans are less discriminating that older fans. You pretty much just pick a player you think is pretty good and that’s it. It’s a very simple and very elegant system. I’m not knocking it, merely pointing out that when we were kids, we didn’t think very deeply about these things.
So today, I thought I’d go back in time and see what the younger version of me was thinking. 16 or 17 years ago, I didn’t know anything about wOBA or FIP. They didn’t even exist. Baseball analysis has come a long way since then. I’m not even sure if my house had an internet connection when I first started watching baseball. I’m pretty sure we didn’t.
The other day I realized that I had never really gone back and evaluated the advanced stats on some of the players I watched growing up. I wouldn’t regret cheering for bad players. In fact, I openly cheer for below average players all the time. That’s not the point. The point is that I wanted to see if my favorite players back in the day when I though AVG, HR, and RBI were the only thing that mattered were any good.
My favorite player as a kid was Tigers OF Bobby Higginson. That’s a blast from the past, right? I modeled by little league number (and every one thereafter) after Higgy’s #4. I went with 44 as an homage. Heck, it’s still in my Twitter handle.
Higginson played from 1995-2005, right in the midst of the steroid era, but still caught on as my favorite player because he was one of very few Tigers who were any good. I remember loving his strong throwing arm from the corner, but he was also a middle of the order bat for my team.
Looking back I am actually a bit shocked to discover that Higginson was a pretty good player! Nice job, young Neil!
Higginson had a career walk rate of 11.5% and K rate of 14.1%, both were better than league average during his era. His approach was good and his career wRC+ was 11% above league average at 111. Bobby Higginson was a solid hitter. His career slash line was .272/.358/.455 and he accumulated more than 17 wins above replacement (WAR) despite a negative defensive rating.
His best season by rate was his 1996 campaign when he posted a 141 wRC+ and he posted his highest WAR in 2000 at 4.3. During his career from 1995-2005 Higginson ranks as the 52nd best outfielder by WAR and 62nd by wRC+. Among Tigers, he was the best position player, leading Damion Easley by more than two wins and had far more games and plate appearances than anyone else in the organization.
So congratulations, young self, you picked a player whom you enjoyed watching and who was a pretty solid player. You didn’t know anything about plate discipline or linear weights, but you still managed to pick a player who was pretty well rated by both measures.
I’m not sure how informative this was, but it’s sometimes nice to look back and just reflect on what it’s like to be a baseball fan. Bobby Higginson was my favorite player growing up and now that I have much better tools to evaluate players, I can now see that he was much more than just a really strong arm. I’d encourage you to go back and check up on the guys you cheered for decades ago, it’s a pretty cool experience. I’ll save Tigers fans some time, though. Al Kaline was awesome, you don’t have to worry.
How Was The Game? (July 14, 2013)
Very close.
Tigers 5, Rangers 0
Justin Verlander (10-6, 126 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.1 WAR) almost joined some elite company, coming within just 7 outs of his third career no-hitter on Sunday. The only pitchers to accomplish that feat are Feller, Young, Ryan, and Koufax and Verlander has teased entry into that club on several occasions, including twice now in 2013. He was very solid across 7 innings, giving up 1 H, 3 BB, and 0 R while striking out 3. It was nice to watch a cruise-control Verlander start after a less that Verlander-ish first half. It was a good half by almost anyone’s standards, but Verlander has set a very high bar. The offense also did their job with 3 solo HR from Hunter, Martinez, and Peralta to go with RBI singles by Peralta and Tuiasosopo in the 6th inning. The win gives the Tigers a 52-42 record heading into the break and no worse than a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central on the other side of the break. In case you’re wondering, New English D now endorses scoreboard watching across the final two and a half months. At least six Tigers will hop a plane for Citi Field tonight, but the whole crew will be back in action Friday behind Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 92 IP, 2.93 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 3.3 WAR).
The Moment: Verlander makes a run at his 3rd no-hitter.
How Was The Game? (July 13, 2013)
Probably good for the balance of the universe, but not how you want to see it happen.
Rangers 7, Tigers 1
The tag line above refers to the fact that Max Scherzer (13-1, 129.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.0 WAR) was handed his first loss at the hands of baseball’s best pitcher who somehow wasn’t given an All-Star nod, Derek Holland. Scherzer wasn’t at his best, allowing 4 runs across 6 innings while striking out 6. Most of Max’s trouble came in a 3 run 4th, but given how well Max has pitched, one can’t really be upset. Max gave the Tigers a 4.0 WAR first half. The offense couldn’t do much against Mr. Holland and the Tigers only run was driven in by Hernan Perez, so that pretty much tells you everything you need to know. The Tigers will have chance to take the series Sunday in the final game before the break with Justin Verlander (9-6, 119 IP, 3.71 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 2.9 WAR) taking the hill.
The Moment: Perez drives in his first MLB run.
How Was The Game? (July 12, 2013)
Solid all-around.
Tigers 7, Rangers 2
The Tigers jumped on Justin Grimm before he knew what hit him. The first six Tigers reached base in the first inning and they scored 5 runs before Grimm could make 3 outs. They’d add two more in the second for good measure and it would be all Doug Fister (7-5, 121 IP, 4.02 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 2.6 WAR) would need as he turned in a solid 6 innings of 2 run baseball with 5 strikeouts and just 2 walks. The first six batters in the Tigers order all reached base at least twice each and the game was never really in doubt. We got to see a great slide from Torii Hunter, an infield single from Prince, a dominant four out performance from Rondon, and the Tigers added one to the win column. They’ll give themselves a shot to win the series tomorrow in Max Scherzer’s (13-0, 123.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 4.0 WAR) final start before the All-Star break.
The Moment: The Tigers get five runs in the first inning to put it away early.
Miguel Cabrera Can’t Stop
We’re beyond the point where I need to tell you that Miguel Cabrera is having an amazing season. He’s leading MLB in Wins Above Replacement (what is WAR?), wRC+ (what is wRC+), wOBA (what is wOBA?), batting average, on base percentage, and is 2nd in slugging percentage and is closing fast. At his current pace, he would finish with the 24th best offensive season in MLB history and somewhere around the 25th best season in history by WAR despite having negative defensive ratings.
He’s one of the best players of his generation and this is his peak. We’re all clear on this, it’s pretty much established. He’s having the best season of his career and it’s really not even close. His previous career high in wRC+ was 2011 when it was 177. This year it is 205. That’s quite a bit better, and that’s before we consider that he’s 0.8 WAR from his career high despite the fact that I’m writing this on July 12. Put this way, if Miguel Cabrera played like a fringe starter the rest of the season, this would still be his best season.
As I often do, because I’m a junkie, I was digging around in Miguel Cabrera’s splits for this season to find something interesting to write about and there was just nothing there. He’s always good. You can’t put Cabrera into a situation in which he won’t excel.
I’ve been writing tweets about Cabrera all season long pointing out his pace in the context of his own past, Tigers history, and MLB history and I keep adding the disclaimer, “He can’t keep this up.”
But here we are, and he’s still keeping it up. I wrote the other day that players will usually regress to the mean, but Cabrera’s averages were so high that while his current level is Everest high, it’s not so much higher than his past performance that this is something that couldn’t possibly continue. This could be his career year. And what a year it is.
He’s been doing it so consistently all season long. In his worst month he slugged over .500. In his worst month his OBP is over .400. If you like wRC+ as an overall offensive metric, it’s the same story. Cabrera’s worst month this season was 171 wRC+ which is pretty much his best season prior:
He’s probably not going to have a 225 wRC+ season, but it’s not like his bad months are anything at which to sneeze. We’re talking about a guy having an all-time offensive season and there are simply no signs that it isn’t sustainable. His BABIP (what’s BABIP?) is high, but it’s always been high and he’s already had a season in which he finished with this exact BABIP, .379. He has 30 homeruns before the All-Star break.
He’s doing it in every situation:
And he’s doing it to all fields:
He’s doing it at home and on the road:
And against righties and lefties:
Miguel Cabrera is pretty much good to the point where it’s hardly interesting. Earlier in the season, I looked at how you might try to get him out and the results weren’t good for AL pitchers. Cabrera is having his best season and there are no holes in his offensive game. He’s on pace for an all-time great season and he’s not slowing down.
New English D 