Bruce Rondon Returns
Bruce Rondon has nothing left to prove in Triple A. The minor leagues aren’t a challenge. He throws too hard for anyone to handle him. Tons of strikeouts, but also his share of walks. He hardly ever gave up runs, and has only allowed a few homers.
There’s just nothing left to prove. He might not be major league ready, but we’ll never know without putting him feet first into the fire. The Tigers bullpen has been taxed as the starters have stubbed their toes in the last few days and they needs reinforcements. The hot hand and the top relief prospect is the fireballing Rondon. It’s time.
I don’t know who he’s replacing just yet and I don’t know how Leyland plans to use him, but I have a suspicion we’ll see him pitching as the “closer” sooner rather than later. He’s exactly what Leyland and Dombrowski value in a closer. He throws hard, is kind of erratic, and has a “closer mentality.” I think most of that is nonsense, but I think he has what it takes to succeed in leverage situations, so I’m not going to cause a big fuss.
He’s going to strike batters out, but he’s going to walk some too. If you squint, you’ll probably think it’s Jose Valverde circa 2010 with a little extra on his fastball.
More than anything, he seems ready. I wrote a few weeks ago about how Castellanos should get the call when he’s ready, not when it makes financial sense. The same is true for Rondon. It’s especially true for Rondon because relievers have short shelf lives. Relievers are relievers because they’re fragile or have a limited repertoire, so let’s get all we can from them before they lose it.
Velocity peaks early, so let’s get everything we can out of his 100 mph arm. He averages 99.3 mph during his 2 inning stint in Detroit earlier this season. The slider is a good pitch, but the command is a problem. To get big leaguers out, he’s going to half to pitch against them. You can’t learn by facing hitters who can’t touch your fastball.
It’s time. It’s time to see what he has and give him a shot to learn. It’s also time for him to come under the tutelage of Jeff Jones, who might be some type of changeup and/or strikeout savant. (Also, this, this, and this)
Don’t overreact to his first appearance, good or bad. Don’t make up your mind based on small samples. Let’s go to Rondon and see what he can do. And remember, don’t look at saves.
But do look at SOEFA, the new reliever stat from New English D.
How Was The Game? (June 27, 2013)
An opposite way to lose.
Angels 3, Tigers 1
After a homestand that featured the league’s best starting pitching doing a very convincing Padres impersonation, Doug Fister (6-5, 103 IP, 3.50 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.9 WAR) returned to form, pitching 7 brilliant innings of 1 run baseball to give the Tigers a very good chance to salvage one in the series. However, the Tigers could only must a single run themselves against the nameless opposing starter and couldn’t cash in on scoring chances in the 8th and 9th innings. With a taxed bullpen, Leyland had to hand the ball to Coke in the 10th, who remained unable to get righties out, resulting in two runs. The Tigers have the best staff and the best offense in baseball, but it wasn’t lined up correctly on this homestand as they dropped 3 straight to the Angels and 6 of 10 overall. They will pack up and head to TB tonight, turning to Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.54 FIP, 3.3 WAR) for game one with the Rays.
The Moment: Torii Hunter nearly injures himself during a very comical dive.
How Was The Game? (June 26, 2013)
One that slowly slipped away.
Angels 7, Tigers 4
The Tigers got off to a good start with back to back homeruns from Hunter and Cabrera in the first inning, but Jose Alvarez (1-1, 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 5.69 FIP, -0.1 WAR) allowed the equalizing homer to Trout in the 3rd inning. The Tigers came back with a run in the bottom half of the inning, but Leyland gave Alvarez a little too much leash as he was tiring in the 6th inning and he allowed a go-ahead homerun from Erick Aybar before being pulled after 5.2 innings and 4 runs. Smyly, unfortunately, surrendered 3 runs of his own even though he has been one of the better relievers in all of baseball this year. (New English D’s new SOEFA rankings put him at 5th entering the day!) After last night’s ugly one, this one was a more subtle defeat, but they count the same in the standings. They’ll try and salvage one on Thursday behind Doug Fister (6-5, 96 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.7 WAR) to make it a 5-5 homestand and avoid the season sweep at the hands of the Angels and he who shall not be named.
The Moment: Hunter and Cabrera go back to back to start the game.
How Was The Game? (June 25, 2013)
Just dreadful.
Angels 14, Tigers 8
So I’m a believer in the theory, it might be my own, that there is exactly one game per season that isn’t fun. This was that game. Usually, I find enjoyment in the game even if it’s a loss, heartbreaking or otherwise. For example, the last time Porcello played the Angels, it was fun to watch Smyly dominate out of the pen. Tonight, I can’t think of anything worth celebrating. Rick Porcello (4-5, 80.1 IP, 5.15 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 1.3 WAR) did not pitch as poorly as the line indicates as a lot of groundballs found holes, but he wasn’t terribly sharp either after the first five batters. The offense had three nice outbursts, I suppose and actually scored a lot of runs, but they ruined that by making, I’m not kidding you, six errors. They made six errors. That’s like two weeks worth of errors. If you missed this game, don’t go look at the box score, I’ll spare you. Forget it happened. It’s done. It’s a loss, nothing more. We’ll wipe the slate clean and try again with Jose Alvarez (1-0, 11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 0.1 WAR) on the mound Wednesday.
The Moment: Um…Cabrera hit a homerun.
Andy Dirks’ Inverted Value: Trading Offense for Defense
Andy Dirks has been slumping with the bat lately. A lot of Tigers fans are unhappy with his performance lately and want to see more from the now-injured Tuiasosopo, Garcia, and Castellanos. I get that, I understand. The offensive numbers are down. You can see it in his rate stats from last year to this season:
He’s 100 PA shy of where he was last season (344 to 244), so the counting stats are going to be harder to compare, but something is incredibly interesting about Dirks this season. Last year, he was worth 1.6 WAR in 344 PA. This year he’s at 1.4 WAR in 244 PA. So he’s actually a little ahead of last year’s overall value despite being 100 PA behind and being a worse player across the board offensively.
Andy Dirks went from an above average hitter and below average defender last season to an elite fielder and below average hitter this season. Now, it could be a sample size issue. Certainly it could. But the change is pretty dramatic and pretty interesting in terms of where his value is coming from, so let’s just take a look with the caveat that this might not keep up.
If we take a look at this advanced defensive numbers, multiple measures line up. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) agree that Dirks was slightly below average/right around average in 2012 and way above average in 2013.
So Dirks’ bat is down and his defense is way up. If we look at where he is contributing runs to his team it has completely shifted (keep in mind replacement level and positional adjustments change a little year to year) from the bat to the glove (10 runs equals 1 WAR). Batting runs, fielding runs, and total runs above replacement look like this:
Basically, the takeaway point here is that while Dirks is struggling at the plate this season, he has made up for it with huge defensive value. I’ve watched almost every inning of Tigers baseball this year and I’m comfortable with the directional change, even if you want to quibble over his precise defensive numbers. Dirks has been great on defense especially compared to most guys who play left field.
Consider this, by UZR/150 which is essentially how many runs a player saves on defense per 150 games, Andy Dirks in LF is baseball’s best qualifying defender. His UZR/150 this year is 34.9. That’s like being a 3.5 WAR player just on defense. Granted, he’ll regress a little over time, but that is an elite level to this point. He’s the best defensive player in baseball by this measure! He’s 2nd in UZR (which isn’t scaled to a full season) and 8th in DRS. (These are all broken down by position and player so guys who play many different positions are unfairly knocked down)
So while I understand that fans are concerned about Dirks’ offensive performance you have to consider his defense as part of his overall value. That’s why Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is such a useful tool. It places a run value on everything and converts those runs into wins. I don’t care how a player adds value, I care if they add value. Dirks is adding value on defense instead of at the plate, and we can’t just ignore that.
Half of a player’s job is playing defense, even if it isn’t as sexy. And Andy Dirks is playing great defense.
Amazing Facts Regarding Don Kelly
I am an unabashed Don Kelly fan. I’ll be clear. My agenda here is to highlight good things about Kelly and really just have some fun with small samples and arbitrary endpoints. One should not read this post as something other than a lighthearted love letter to the Tigers utility man.
He is not a great baseball player, but he is a very useful player to have on a major league team because of his versatility and decent all-around game. I’m a fan because I like utility players and I like players who are super-polite and just really enjoy playing baseball. For example, this Onion satire is based largely on me:
I am also, to my knowledge the only person on Earth who owns this article of clothing:
I’m weird, okay, let’s move past it. Let’s talk about Don Kelly’s 2013 season! Everything here is 100% true. Especially the last one.
1. Don Kelly currently has a .340 OBP, the best of his career. It is better than league average. It is also better than Albert Pujols’.
2. Don Kelly is currently walking more than he is striking out 13.2% to 12.3%. Only 7 players with 100 PA are doing that this year. Here they are:
| Name | Team | PA | BB% | K% |
| Norichika Aoki | Brewers | 316 | 8.50% | 5.40% |
| Coco Crisp | Athletics | 263 | 12.20% | 10.30% |
| Alberto Callaspo | Angels | 226 | 9.30% | 7.50% |
| Marco Scutaro | Giants | 284 | 7.70% | 6.70% |
| Don Kelly | Tigers | 106 | 13.20% | 12.30% |
| Munenori Kawasaki | Blue Jays | 183 | 13.10% | 12.60% |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 345 | 12.20% | 11.90% |
3. Only 5 players have a higher wRC+ in June than Don Kelly (min 10 PA), if I gave you 100 guesses and no internet access, you wouldn’t guess more than one. Here they are:
| Name | Team | PA | wRC+ |
| Zoilo Almonte | Yankees | 14 | 345 |
| Chris Herrmann | Twins | 12 | 303 |
| Matt Tuiasosopo | Tigers | 21 | 273 |
| Gerald Laird | Braves | 13 | 265 |
| Wil Nieves | Diamondbacks | 17 | 243 |
| Don Kelly | Tigers | 19 | 241 |
4. Don Kelly is hitting 102 wRC+ on the season. That’s better than league average.
5. With runners in scoring position (RISP) this season, Don Kelly is 3rd in batting average (min 20 PA). Only Miguel Cabrera and Allen Craig are better.
6. With RISP this year Don Kelly has a .561 OBP. Only Miguel Cabrera is better. In baseball, not just on the Tigers.
7. He’s also 7th in SLG with RISP.
8. By wRC+, the best all around offensive rate stat, Don Kelly is the 2nd best hitter with RISP this season (min 20 PA) with 264 wRC+. Only Miguel Cabrear is better. Again, in baseball, not just the Tigers.
9. Don Kelly is having a good all-around season, but has decided to be superhuman with men in scoring position:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |
| Bases Empty | 0.220 | 0.339 | 0.380 | 0.322 | 101 |
| Men on Base | 0.244 | 0.340 | 0.390 | 0.327 | 104 |
| Men In Scoring | 0.444 | 0.565 | 0.778 | 0.561 | 264 |
10. Don Kelly has been in five 3-0 counts this season. He has walked every time.
11. Kelly has come in to pinch run 3 times this season. He scored twice.
12. When the game is tied, Don Kelly hits .360/.407/.560.
13. At home, Kelly hits .282/.391/.513.
14. Don Kelly has only 3 HR this season, but they have come against pitchers who collectively allow 1 HR every 50.65 batters. League average is 1 HR every 37.86 batters. The pitchers are Samuel Deduno, Justin Masterson, and of course, Yu Darvish.
15. Don Kelly has played all 9 positions in his career. No other active player has done that. Inge just needs to pitch. I was at this game, after insisting to my mother that we shouldn’t leave.
16. This is a picture of Don Kelly and his wife, Carrie. She is Neil Walker’s sister. Those are her parents. She’s is both beautiful, and given what I know about Don, likely a very lovely woman.
17. Don Kelly once lifted Prince Fielder. He is the only person in recorded history to do so.
Miguel Cabrera’s Extremely Rare Stat Line
Correction: In the original positing of this article, we left out Barry Bonds’ 2002 season. This feat has been accomplished 16 times by 7 different players. Two have do so in the last 50 years. New English D apologizes for the error.
I think we’re past the point where I need to tell you that Miguel Cabrera is an exceptionally gifted hitter. It’s pretty clear. Obvious, even. Maybe we could argue over whether or not he’s the best hitter in the game or the best player or whatnot, but we’re all in agreement that he’s great and we’re all comfortable saying he’s having one of, if not, the best seasons right now. He’s a great player who is playing very well.
He won the Triple Crown last year to a lot of fanfare, and while I don’t ascribe much importance to RBI, it’s still very interesting and very cool that he led the league in all three of those categories when no one had done it in decades. But he’s having a better season in 2013 than he did last year despite the fact that Chris Davis is out homering him. In fact, Cabrera is having quite the impressive season by any standard. By his triple slash line, (meaning his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage), he is having a season that has only happened 15 times in the modern era (since 1901).
Miguel Cabrera is currently hitting .370/.462/.646. which is tied with Davis for the best wRC+ in baseball at 199. Now that isn’t the best offensive season ever, but it’s very good. And it’s extremely rare. Since 1901, a .370/.460/.640 or better season has only happened 15 times it’s only been done by 6 separate players.
Now I don’t mean to say that Cabrera’s first 74 games will perfectly predict his final stat line or that we can hope to extrapolate someone’s performance to predict the future, but these are rate stats and there is no real reason to think Cabrera is playing dramatically over his head. So it’s not totally unreasonable to consider these numbers as potential full season targets.
And I also don’t mean to consider these statistics out of context. wRC+ and WAR are designed to compare players across eras, and I’m fully aware that Miguel Cabrera’s .370 average is not the same as a .370 in 1950. I’m not saying Cabrera is having one of the 20 best offensive seasons ever, I’m saying he’s having one of the rarest combinations of a high average, good patience, and power ever.
What is also so remarkable about this is that only one of the 15 seasons on this list has come in the last 56 years (Here’s the full list). Only Todd Helton’s 2000 season (at Coors during the Steroid Era). Since Ted Williams did it in 1957, only one person has mixed a high average and power the way Cabrera is doing this year. I know the run scoring environment changes over time, but Cabrera is playing in a low average, low OBP, high power era relative to the others on this list, so it’s not like he’s unfairly lifted by context.
Bonds never did it. Griffey never did it. Manny never did it. It’s pretty cool.
Cabrera is essentially the best “pure hitter” and the best “power hitter” in baseball right now and he is having his best offensive season. Just look at the names on that list. Those are baseball’s all-time greats (and Todd Helton). Cabrera looks poised to win his 3rd consecutive batting title (he also finished 2nd in 2010) and is also hitting for excellent power. He’s doing something that has been done just once in the last half century and has only been done by some of the game’s best players.
This isn’t meant to be a post about exactly where Cabrera’s season ranks or what it means to hit .370, it’s really just about pointing out how ridiculous it is to both hit .370 and slug .640. It’s not exactly a typical stat line.
Miguel Cabrera isn’t exactly a typical hitter, though.
How Was The Game? (June 23, 2013)
Bizarre.
Tigers 7, Red Sox 5
Despite the fact that starting pitching is the hallmark of the 2013 Tigers and the fact that Justin Verlander (8-5, 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.8 WAR) entered the season as one of the game’s top starters, today wasn’t really a day for such things to be on display. Verlander was inefficient and off his mark, going just 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 runs, and 3 walks while only striking out 4. He wasn’t knocked around, but he was not the master of the mound that we have come to expect. A key issuse, today at least, was the lack of horizontal movement on his curveball. Take a look at this comparison between his start today and his game averages last season:
His teammates helped him out, however, as Cabrera and Fielder knocked in runs in the first, Holaday scored on a passed ball in the 2nd, and then Jhonny Peralta delivered the tying run on a bases loaded hit by pitch in the 7th. It was a funky game that included a ridiculous play by Victor Martinez and a play in which Dustin Pedroia dropped a line drive, only to failed to get a double play because Napoli tagged the base before he tagged the immobile Jackson. Then of course, there was the 8th inning fly ball that Nava caught cleanly in RF that turned into a double because…well…I’m not entirely sure. The umpires just totally missed it. Then Holaday tried to sacrifice bunt and reached on an error and Jackson walked to set up a Torii Hunter go-ahead sac fly and a Prince Fielder go-further-ahead 2 RBI single. Thanks to some solid relief work by Smyly and Benoit (who gave up 1 R), the Tigers road the strange inning to a series win and a 42-32 record overall. They’ll take Monday off before turning to Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.3 WAR) to start the three game set with the Angels.
The Moment(s): Victor Martinez makes a circus play at first AND Garcia doubles on a fly out.
How Was The Game? (June 22, 2013)
Nice and comfortable.
Tigers 10, Red Sox 3
Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.3 WAR) gave up two runs in the first inning and then the offense unloaded and he remembered he is now MAX SCHERZER in capital letters.
Despite the two early runs, Scherzer finished with a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 run, 0 walk, and 6 strikeout evening, adding to his brilliant season and Cy Young campaign. Scherzer now leads all AL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 3.3 (also in Run Support per 9 with 7.83). I mean, check this out. He threw almost nothing off the plate inside:
The bats did more than enough, as Martinez got the scoring going with a 1st inning grand slam, before Jackson drove in a run in the 4th, and the Tigers took off with 2 more in the 5th and 7th each and 1 in the 8th. After the 1st inning, it was never really in doubt as Scherzer shifted into cruise control and allowed just three additional baserunners to earn his his team the victory. The win lifts the Tigers to 41-32 and they will go for the series win against the AL leading Red Sox behind the forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.7 WAR).
The Moment: Victor Martinez hits a first inning grand slam, goes 2-3 with a GS, 2B, 2 BB, 5 RBI, and 3 R
How Was The Game? (June 21, 2013)
Not for the purists.
Red Sox 10, Tigers 6
The box score just looks ugly. Both starters allowed 4 run innings and both teams had 10 or more hits. It was one of those traffic on the bases, always threatening games. Doug Fister (6-5, 96 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.7 WAR) had an ugly line, but most of the damage came on groundballs that found holes and that’s just something you live with when you have such an extreme groundball pitcher on the mound. Usually it works nicely for him. Fister finished with 3.1 inning, 11 hits, 6 runs, 1 BB, and 0 K. The offense did fine work as Pena singled in a run in the 2nd and the Tigers got 4 in the 5th on a Dirk solo shot and a Cabrera 3 run HR. The bullpen surrendered 4 additional runs, but two of which came without the benefit of a hit and one came on a Garcia error, so you can’t really blame them. The Tigers will try to secure no worse than a split behind Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.1 WAR) on Saturday, who is making a case to start the All-Star game.
The Moment: Cabrera launches a 3 run HR.
New English D 