Doug Fister’s Quiet Brilliance
Doug Fister is an ace. He is. There’s no getting around it. It wasn’t supposed to be like this, but here we are. Twenty two months after the Mariners sent him to the Tigers for a package of players that are either no longer in their organization or are Charlie Furbush and Chance Ruffin, Doug Fister has established himself as one of baseball’s best starting pitchers.
This year, he currently ranks 9th in WAR with 2.8 and 5 of the guys above him on the list have made at least one more start than he has. He takes the mound tonight and could reasonably push himself into the top five range. It’s not just this year, it’s been every year. Last year he missed a quarter of the season with an oblique injury and still ranked 27th in WAR. Only Medlen and Strasburg out-pitched him in fewer innings.
Since the start of 2011, only five starting pitchers have a higher WAR. Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix, Hernandez, and CC Sabathia. That’s it. That’s the whole list. Fister missed a quarter of the season in 2012 and since the beginning of 2011 only five pitchers have been better and they all have at least 70 more innings in that span.
Don’t get me wrong, the number of innings you pitch matters a great deal, but it’s important to note. Doug Fister, despite missing time, is holding his own with the best handful of starters in MLB. How is he doing it?
Fister doesn’t throw hard. His fastball averages 88-89 mph. He does it with command, movement, and pitch selection and he does that better than anyone else. Jered Weaver is the only other starting pitcher in the top 25 in WAR over the last 3 seasons to average a fastball under 90 mph and Weaver is 9 spots behind him on the list.
It is Fister’s excellent command and brilliant offspeed pitches that make him so good and he’s getting better.
The ERA takes a hit in 2012 and 2013 thanks to his defense, but the FIP and xFIP are trending down and it’s thanks to a real change in his approach.
Fister is striking out more batters and walking even fewer than his already impressive baseline. And even more than that, he’s turned himself into an elite groundballer. Only 3 qualifying starters have induced more groundballs than Fister in 2013:
I mean, just look at that. Look at it! Fister is getting pretty much the same number of line drives as always but he’s cut his flyball rate nearly in half and turned them all into groundballs. This isn’t always great for his BABIP, but it’s great for his overall run prevention. Balls on the ground can’t turn into homeruns and they don’t turn into extra base hits. Fister is striking out more batters, walking fewer, and getting everyone else to hit the ball on the ground more often. You couldn’t design a better transformation than this one.
I talked about the same type of transformation recently with Porcello, and he and Fister are in rare company. They have strikeout rates above 7 per 9, walk rates below 2 per 9, and GB% above 50% in 2013. Since GB% started being recorded in the early 2000s, the only starters to finish a year like that are Halladay, Carpenter, and Hamels. Felix, Porcello, and Fister are trying for it this year.
Essentially, what we’re looking at with Fister is another member of the Detroit School of Pitching. I looked at the team trends here, and how it’s working for Porcello (above), Sanchez, and Scherzer so far. Jeff Jones or whoever is calling the shots, has helped the Tigers starters master the changeup and optimize their breaking ball mix. Here’s how Fister has developed his approach:
The top graph separates the breaking balls and the bottom one combines them. He’s gone from slider (some people call it a cutter) to curveball and increased the use of his changeup over his fastball. This is something almost every Tigers pitcher is doing, and it’s really working for Fister.
He’s inducing less contact and based on the batted ball data it is weaker contact:
He’s 5th in BB% and he’s 10th in FIP and he’s doing it while allowing the third lowest HR/9 in baseball this year. He’s become an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out a decent number of batters while walking almost none. In fact, he’s nearly hit as many batters as he has walked, which is exceedingly rare.
Take a look at how his curveball is moving more and his changeup is separting more from the fastball, but my goodness look at the shift in movement in his fastball.
Doug Fister’s numbers point to him being one of the game’s best starters this year and over the last few seasons. He’s racking up the WAR and is striking guys out, not walking many, limiting homeruns, and adding groudballs. He’s preventing runs and doing just about everything you could ever want a starting pitcher to do and he’s doing it all with a fastball under 90 mph and has never recorded a pitch of 95 mph or higher.
Which means he doesn’t grab headlines. And if you’ve ever heard an interview with him, you know he has no interest in headlines. It’s always about his team. Which makes him endearing. And likable, and my god, he works extremely quickly on the mound. And he shatters bats, which I love.
The Mariners gave him to the Tigers for a reasonable package at the time, but since the trade those guys haven’t panned out and Doug Fister as gone from a nice back end starter to a bona fide ace. He’s my favorite starting pitcher to watch in baseball. His fastball breaks more than most people’s breaking balls and his pinpoint control and snappy pace are so refreshing. Not to mention his cat-like reflexes and great defense.
He’s basically the perfect starting pitcher. It’s about time someone noticed.
New English D Audio (Episode 2): Bullpen, Castellanos, and Jhonny Peralta’s Value
On this edition of New English D Audio I discuss how the Tigers should handle the bullpen and Jose Valverde, Nick Castellanos’ breakout at Triple A, and how we should value Jhonny Peralta given his big offensive season and somewhat controversial defense. The conversation features material regarding how one can invent a closer, the great season of Darin Downs, Nick Castellanos’ big season, and various statistics surround offensive value such as wRC+, wRAA, and wOBA in addition to WAR.
Please feel free to send questions or comments to NewEnglishD@gmail.com or to me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
Download (Approx 22 mins)
How Was The Game? (June 20, 2013)
Not a bad ending.
Tigers 4, Red Sox 3
The buzz around the Tigers today was about the bullpen situation, but despite Leyland giving Coke the ball when it should have gone to Smyly, it wasn’t the Tigers bullpen that would be the story. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 0.1 WAR) did solid work across 5 innings of 2 run baseball against a very strong offense and Putkonen, Coke, and Smyly combined to allow just one additional run. The bats were unable to get more than two runs in the first 8 innings, however, as a Torii Hunter 2 run single was the only scoring the Tigers could muster against Lackey and company until Martinez walked to start the 9th inning against Bailey and then Jhonny Peralta stepped to the plate and lined a slider into the Tigers bullpen to end the game. I know it doesn’t matter, but I said to my wife before the inning started that Martinez was going to walk and Jhonny was going to walk off. It felt good as the Tigers delivered their first walk off win of the season. If you’re going to lose one in this series, it certainly should be the Alvarez game but the Tigers survived it and can now turn to Fister, Scherzer, and Verlander the rest of the way, who are among the best dozen starting pitchers in baseball so far this season. It will be Doug Fister (6-4, 92.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who will get the ball Friday night at Comerica Park.
The Moment: Jhonny Perlata walks off into the Tigers bullpen.
Yes, You Can Invent a Closer
I’ve written extensively on bullpen usage and the closer role. To catch you up, here are the three big pieces:
I encourage you all to read those piece to catch up, but I’m going to move forward even if you haven’t. I’m going to make a claim and then seek to back it up with real evidence. The claim is this:
Closer experience doesn’t matter. If you put a good reliever into the closer role, he will succeed.
I would prefer managers not use closers at all (see link #3 above), but let’s say managers want to have a closer who comes in during save situations for a single inning. If that is the case, I am here to tell you that you do not need closer experience to be a closer.
I took the 30 pitchers with the most save opportunities from 2012 to test this theory. The group average was 35 save chances from 2012 and none had fewer than 20. Only the Athletics had two players on the list who played for only one team and four players on the list played for two or more teams in 2012. Combined, they averaged 30.3 saves and 910 saves in total.
These are 30 undisputed closers. The took on the closer role in 2012 and accumulated saves. Jim Leyland, who is my target audience right now, would look at their save totals and save percentage and consider them closers.
You with me so far? Good.
Only 10 of them had more than 17 save opportunities in 2011. Only a third of 2012’s best closers would have made the list from 2011. Certainly there were injuries, but Joe Nathan is the only one who was a legitimate closer before 2011 other than Rafael Soriano, who backed up Mariano Rivera in 2011. Maybe I’ll give you Jonathan Broxton, but he had lost his closer tag, so we’ll see. Despite all of this, at most we could say that half of 2012’s best closers had closer experience. Just half.
Half of them had fewer than 10 save chances in 2011 and five had zero save chances in 2011. Half of the best closers of 2012 weren’t even closers the year before.
I’ll cut the group in half and say anyone under 10 save chances in 2011 is non-proven and anyone over 10 chances is proven. I’m being generous.
The non-proven closers averaged 27 saves in 2012 and the provens averaged 33. But they averaged an 87 and 86% save percentage, respectively. The non-proven closers averaged 7 fewer opportunities in 2012, but they converted essentially the same percentage as the proven closers.
These are facts. I’ll go a step further. The five closers who had zero save chances in 2011 converted 84% of their save chance in 2012. There is literally no discernible difference between pitchers with closing experience as it pertains to saves. None. None. None.
It gets better. The proven closers had an ERA of 3.11 in 2012. The non-proven closers had an ERA of 2.73.
So basically, this is the argument I’m making. Closing experience does not predict future success in that role. The 30 best closers from 2012 prove that pretty nicely. The 15 proven guys were no more successful at converting saves and had a worse ERA than the non-proven closers. If anything the unproven closers pitched better.
Jim Leyland and the Tigers have placed an extremely high value on closing experience. They signed a reliever who was past his ability to pitch in MLB because he had saved games before and they won’t turn to better pitchers because they “can’t close.” Leyland has been clear on this. I have never heard a clear explanation about what makes the 9th inning different, but I can tell you very clearly that pitchers have been placed in the closer’s role as recently as last season and had absolutely no problem handling it.
No problem at all. So while I don’t advocate using a closer at all, if managers insist on defined roles with specific limits can we at least accept the fact that you can put anyone who is reasonable competent into the closer’s role?
Leyland doesn’t want to use Smyly or Benoit in the closer’s role and has repeated said the “9th inning is a little bit different,” but there is just no evidence that is true.
You can create a closer by putting a good reliever into the role. The Tigers have good relievers and should just put one of them into the role if Leyland insists on having a closer. It really is that simple. You can invent a closer. Fifteen teams did it last season.
I’ve included an Excel File (Closers) with the the data I used. The stats to the right of the yellow divider are from 2012 and the left side is from 2011.
Nick Castellanos is Forcing the Issue
I’m the last person in the world you’ll hear clamoring for the Tigers to make roster moves to replace players who are having a bad two weeks and I’m never someone who advocates rushing prospects because you have a need at the major league level. This is not that kind of post.
In fact, it’s the opposite. Andy Dirks is slumping at the plate, although his defense has been very good, but Matt Tuiasosopo is more than capable of stepping in to be the Tigers everyday left fielder for now. The Tigers had the league’s best offense entering the day (112 wRC+) and we all know they have the best pitching staff in baseball quite comfortably. I’m not worried about the Tigers one bit. They are a great team who will win the Central, barring significant injuries, quite easily.
But Nick Castellanos, the Tigers top prospect, is sitting in AAA Toledo and he’s starting to make some noise. A lot of it actually. No player under 24 had a higher wRC+ than Castellanos in AAA except for the recently promoted super-prospect Wil Myers. Nick is now the best young hitter at his level and he may be outgrowing it.
The book on Castellanos is a great hit tool with the expectation that the power will develop. His approach has needed work and his defense is still coming along. The club moved him to the OF after the Fielder signing, but he was originally a 3B. He’s 21 years old, in Triple A, and he’s forcing the issue.
Since I no longer live in Toledo, I haven’t seen Castellanos play defense, but I haven’t heard any horror stories, even if he isn’t great. But I can follow the numbers he’s putting up at the plate from 600 miles away and it’s starting to get good.
Here is how Castellanos’ numbers have looked over the course of the season (OBP, SLG, K%, and BB% at the end of each game):
His OBP is now over .350 and his SLG is up near .500 and both numbers have been trending upward. He’s mashing lefties (1.016 OPS) and isn’t having trouble with righties either (.805 OPS). The walks are way up from last year and the strikeouts have come down. And these numbers are coming from one of the lowest BABIP’s of his career (.332 entering Wednesday) against the best competition he’s ever faced.
In half a season at Triple A, he’s put up big numbers and the biggest of those are coming more recently. The plate discipline appears to be getting better and the power is coming. I’m sure he could benefit from more seasoning and his defense probably still needs work, but it’s getting close to that time.
The Tigers don’t need him, but he’s getting close to the point where it might be time for him to come up anyway. You shouldn’t rush a prospect because your team needs him, but you also shouldn’t stash him in the minors just because you don’t. The Tigers shouldn’t be worried about his service time when they’re in their championship window. There are times to worry about an arbitration clock and there are times to play your best 25. This is the latter.
I’m not a professional scout and won’t pretend to be and I haven’t seen Castellanos live this year, but if I’m following the numbers it’s starting to look like he’s ready. This is the Tigers’ blue chip, top prospect. The Tigers are built to win now with or without him, but if he’s ready, then it’s time to call him up.
The timetable has always been late 2013 for Nick and he’s walking around Fifth Third Field in Toledo like he won’t be there much longer. I’m not saying it should be tomorrow or even this month, but I think it’s time for Nick to come north.
Two years ago, people wanted to call him up to play 2B because the Tigers didn’t have a 2B. That was silly because he wasn’t ready and he wasn’t a 2B. But it’s two years later I’m starting to think he’s ready to hit big league pitching and I’m starting to wonder if he’s one of the best OF bats the Tigers have to offer.
I think we’ll see Tuiasosopo get a few more at bats in the next couple weeks and if he hits, maybe the Tigers let Nick work on his glove. But if Tuiasosopo isn’t mashing the ball and Castellanos stays hot, our deadline deal might be with the Toledo Mud Hens, when we recall a potential franchise cornerstone.
How Was The Game? (June 19, 2013)
An ambush.
Orioles 13, Tigers 3
Everything went reasonably well for the Tigers today except the top half of the 4th inning in which the Orioles hit Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.2 WAR) hard and then, of course, the 9th inning. It was a peculiar 4th inning given that Porcello was dominant in the other 5 innings, 3 of which came before and 2 of which came after. He finished with 6 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 0 walks, and 4 K, but all six runs and six of the nine hits happened in the span of 11 batters before he got himself straightened out. I’m not concerned given how well he’s performed this season with career best 7.46 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, and 2.98 xFIP even after today’s game. The offense made some noise, but only turned it into 3 runs, two of which came on a Tuiasosopo pinch hit double before the bullpen allowed 3 runs to give the Orioles sufficient cushion who then put up a 4 spot on Valverde in the 9th, who simply cannot get MLB hitters out at this point and needs to be released before Jim Leyland can use him again. The Tigers dropped their second series of the season to the Orioles, but still stand at 39-31 on the season, and thankfully never have to play the Orioles again this season. I say that because MLB doesn’t allow people in North Carolina (where I live) to watch the Baltimore Orioles* under any circumstances, so I’ve spend the last three days listening on the radio like a caveman. Things will get back to normal as the Red Sox come to town for four starting Thursday with Jose Alvarez (1-0 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 0.1 WAR) making his second start of the year in place of Sanchez.
The Moment: Tuiasosopo doubles in a pair to make it a game.
*Or the Washington Nationals
How Was The Game? (June 18, 2013)
Surprising.
Orioles 5, Tigers 2
One characterizes this game as surprising, partially because Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.8 WAR) pitched poorly despite some very good signs early and partially because Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder both popped out representing the tying run in the 7th inning and then Cabrera grounded into a double play to end the game. Verlander only went 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 5 runs, and 4 walks while striking out 5. He gave up two homeruns, one to Hardy and one to Jones, that delivered all of the runs, but 11 baserunners in 5 innings is too many for Verlander regardless of how the runs were clustered. Britton kept the Tigers at bay, but started to open the door before being pulled. Tuiasosopo homered in the 5th and Jackson drove in a run in the 7th but the Tigers would get no closer. Downs, who is having a strong season, and Putkonen did nice work in relief, but the damage had been done. The Tigers will still have a change to take the series against a very good team behind Rick Porcello (4-3, 70 IP, 4.37 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.3 WAR) who is having his breakout season, as described here.
The Moment: Tuiasosopo homers the other way in the 5th.
Darin Downs, Very Capable Reliever
A great deal has been said and written about the Tigers and their bullpen struggles. I’ve taken part, offering criticism of signing Valverde, discussing why closers don’t matter, and explaining how I would use a bullpen. And I think we’re probably all on board with the idea that Smyly and Benoit are the Tigers best relief pitchers, even if we don’t agree on how a team should use their best relievers.
Yet in all the madness, we’ve overlooked a very good reliever in the Tigers bullpen, likely because Jim Leyland doesn’t use him very much. I said this on June 15th when Downs came on to pitch:
Some of that comes from the Tigers having an incredible rotation and not needing much relief help, but the idea that Leyland didn’t use Downs for nearly two weeks when he was running Valverde out six times is a bit of an issue. Why? Because Darin Downs has actually pitched really, really well.
In 19 games, Downs has 25.1 IP and sports a 11.09 K/9, 2.49 BB.9, and 1.07 HR/9 rate which equates to a 3.22 FIP and 3.23 xFIP along with his 3.91 ERA and 0.4 WAR. Two things jump out about that line. First, his K and BB rates are very good (29.3% and 6.6% if you prefer) but also that his performance looks entirely sustainable in the sense that his peripherals are in line with his results. He’s faced only 106 batters, so maybe this is just the best stretch of his career, but if it is, the Tigers should at least be riding the streak.
Last year, he was good also, if not quite this good (3.48 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 3.82 xFIP in 20.2 IP). So this isn’t totally out of nowhere. He leads all Tigers pitchers in O-Swing% (getting hitters to swing at pitchers out of the zone) at 37.9% and only Alburquerque has allowed less contact. Only Evan Reed has thrown more first pitch strikes.
I’m fully aware that I’m walking on small sample size thin ice, but I’m going to press on because I think this gets interesting if you’re willing to stay with me.
Here are his K/9 and BB/9 over the last two seasons (K% and BB% look the same):
And he’s inducing more swings on pitchers outside the zone and fewer inside the zone:
Downs is getting hitters to chase more outside the zone and take more inside the zone, which goes nicely with the fact that hitters are making less contact outside the zone and more inside the zone this year:
And in a very boring visual, he’s also throwing more first pitch strikes than last year:
So if we’re willing to accept our hands are tied with small samples any time we analyze relievers, Downs looks good. He’s improved from last year to this year and his numbers are quite good this season. If we’re going to look at statistics for relievers at all, the statistics tell a good story regarding Downs. He’s good and he’s getting better.
So what’s different? It could be simple variation, but there is something else I want to highlight. It’s not just the results that are better, the pitches are better too. Let’s start with his pitches from 2012:
And here is Downs this season:
Notice how the changeup and fastball is moving more this season and notice how there is more separation between the fastball and the changeup. His pitchers are moving more and the separation has gotten a bit better. That’s generally a good formula for success. And I think Downs has figured it out. Here’s how he’s mixing his pitches:
He’s going to the changeup instead of the curveball more often, just like so many Tigers pitchers, and it’s becoming a better pitch for him. He’s throwing the changeup more and he’s getting more swings and misses on it, and also with the curveball, possibly because hitters now have to worry about a good changeup and can’t read the offspeed pitch as well:
And no, Darin Downs does not have a platoon split this season. In fact, he’s both faced more righties (58 vs 48) and done better work against them this season. Hey, aren’t changeups used to get opposite handed hitters out?!
So the story with Downs is this. He’s having a good season and by all accounts he has gotten better since last season, and that improvement is based on some actual differences in his pitches and pitch usage. When we dive into reliever stats, we can often get lost in small samples, but if we’re going to evaluate relievers, and clearly we are, everything is going in the right direction for Downs.
It’s about time he gets the recognition he deserves and maybe even some high leverage appearances.
Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis Own 2013
Miguel Cabrera came into 2013 having recently won an MVP and the first Triple Crown in decades. No one would bat an eye if you mentioned his name among the greatest hitters in baseball history whether the listener was a believer in batting average and RBI or wOBA and WAR. His off field issues might cause some whispers, but his name is essentially synonymous with great hitting.
Chris Davis had a well-established reputation of being a slugging hacker. Lots of power, not much of an approach at the plate. The Orioles got a solid season out of him in 2012, but it was a 2.0 WAR kind of season, not a Miguel Cabrera kind of season. He was 27 years old in need of a strong season to avoid being labeled a platoon player.
But that was two and a half months ago. Cabrera’s story isn’t much different. He’s having his best season, but that doesn’t surprise you very much. He’s always been a star. But Davis’ story is much different. Chris Davis was closer to Crash Davis that he was to Miguel Cabrera a year ago, but now he and Cabrera are sharing the leaderboards and a lot of sentences about the game’s best hitters right now.
This isn’t a post about who Cabrera and Davis were before or who they are going to be after. This is Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis in the summer of 2013.
(All statistics reflect the season to date as of 6/17, before the start of the Tigers-Orioles series at Comerica Park)
Cabrera is hitting for a higher average and is getting on base more frequently, but Davis is making up for it with a higher slugging percentage. Balance those differences out and their wOBA are nearly identical.
Once we control for park and league average, Chris Davis tops Cabrera in wRC+ narrowly 194 to 189. In terms of overall offensive value, they have essentially been the same player thus far. Remember, this post isn’t about what to expect in the future, it’s about what they’ve done to this point.
Breaking down the SLG, you can see the hit distribution gives Davis more extra base hits, but Cabrera has more hits period.
Having read this far, I probably don’t have to tell you that Miguel Cabrera’s approach at the plate has been better:
And Davis hits more fly balls in place of the ground balls hit by Cabrera:
In 2013, Cabrera and Davis have been about equally valuable on offense when you break it down. Davis is slugging it a little more so than Cabrera, who is focusing more on getting on base, but neither is bad at either. They both have the HR and RBI if you’re looking for Triple Crown narratives. Davis is 1st in HR, Cabrera 2nd. Cabrera leads in RBI, Davis is 2nd. Cabrera leads in average, Davis is second.
It’s a draw, with a slight edge to Davis. Cabrera has the track record and will certainly have the better career, but right now at this moment, they are essentially the same.
That’s amazing and wonderful and weird. Think of it like this. A year ago, Miguel Cabrera was crafting the first half of an MVP season. Chris Davis was the position player the Orioles called on to pitch in a marathon game with the Red Sox on May 6th.
I didn’t have to look up the date, I remember it pretty well. I read about in a hotel room on my wedding night. A year ago, Chris Davis was so expendable to the Orioles that they let him pitch. Now he is, for all intents and purposes, Miguel Cabrera.
That’s pretty freaking cool. Baseball is often predictable, but there are plenty of exceptions to prove the rule. Davis is having quite the exceptional year. I’ll be glad once he leaves town and does his Cabrera impression against other clubs.
How Was The Game? (June 17, 2013)
Another gem, this time from Scherzer.
Tigers 5, Orioles 1
We’re at the point, where it is hardly news now when a Tigers starting pitcher throws a brilliant game. It was Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 3.1 WAR) who did it tonight, delivering a 6 inning, 1 R, 2 BB, and 10 K line with the only blemish being a homerun to Chris Davis. The Tigers rotation is on pace to be the best rotation in MLB history and Scherzer is now the 2nd best pitcher in the AL by WAR, trailing only King Felix, who has made an additional start. The Tigers offense came from a 2 run bomb from Cabrera in the 1st, a Jackson single in the 2nd, a Martinez sac fly in the 5th, and a Peralta single in the next at bat. Leyland even brought Smyly in at the right time to get 9 outs! But the moment of the night, no doubt, was Scherzer striking out Davis with the bases loaded to end the 5th inning. Here’s how he got him, with exceptional control and terrific velocity:
I mean, what do you do against a guy who can offer this mix:
The win finally pushes the Tigers 10 games over .500 to 39-29 as they send Justin Verlander (8-4, 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.0 WAR) to the hill tomorrow looking to take the series.
The Moment: Scherzer gets Davis to strikeout with the bases loaded to end the 5th.
New English D 