The Morning Edition (July 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wheeler great, Cain awful in a big Mets win
- Another great start for Turner in Miami
- The Angels unload on the Cubs, get a good start from Wilson
- Lee gives up four solo homeruns in a loss to the Nationals
- Toronto tops Cleveland after a wild 9th
- Nova and the Yanks handle the Royals easily
- Twins and Rays play deep into the night, Zobrist walks off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale and Sanchez in Detroit (1p Eastern)
- Zimmermann goes against the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner (underrated) and Marquis (overrated) face off in Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How should we pick the ASG starter?
There’s been some debate, as there always is regarding ASG stuff, as to who should start for each side. Harvey is the frontrunner in the NL because he is having one of the best seasons and the game is at his home park. It’s not a lock that he should start on merit, but he’s in the conversation and the hometown thing probably pushes him over. I think it’s safe to say Harvey, Wainwright, and Kershaw are the contenders, but depending on what stats you like, you can make a case that any of them are the best starter so far. But should it be about the best starter so far this season? Should it be about the best starter for the last calendar year? The biggest star? The guy who we judge to be the best, because the game does count? It’s not a clear formula. For what it’s worth, Wainwright is schedule to pitch Sunday so he’s probably out. Kershaw and Harvey are both “stop what you’re doing and watch guys” who are having elite years and are top 10 guys since the last ASG. If you’re asking for six outs, they can both get them with the best of them. Is there really a way to separate who should get the start if we don’t have a fixed definition. If Kershaw was far and away having a better season, it might be different, but they’re pretty even, so it just makes sense to go with Harvey…I think. Kershaw’s about to get $200 million. Harvey could have that in his future, but he has more work to do. Let’s go with Harvey.
The Morning Edition (July 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hamels twirls a gem against the Nats
- CC goes the distance, but Shields and the Royals hold off the Yanks
- Josh Johnson has a good day, but the Tribe shut out his Jays
- Machado homers, but the Rangers beat the O’s 8-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner takes the hill (1230p Eastern)
- Wheeler and Cain (330p Eastern)
- Gio and Lee from the left side (7p Eastern)
- Miller faces the Astros, strikeout warning in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How much should we care about pitcher-hitting?
Dave Cameron threw out some tweets today regarding the (false) perception that the Pirates can’t hit citing that they are 11th in MLB in non-pitcher wRC+. However, their pitchers are comically and historically bad, as Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this year. So while the Pirates non-pitchers are almost in the top 3rd in wRC+, they fall off a bit when you add in their pitchers and are in the bottom third in runs scored. PNC is a pitchers park, but not in an extreme way. All told, it got me thinking. We don’t really think of pitchers as part of the offense, but they get 2-3 PA a game and can have a meaningful impact on the outcome of a game. I think it might be time to either add the DH to the NL or start seriously considering how much a team can benefit from pitchers who are good at hitting. We tend to brush it off, but might their be something to paying attention to how well a pitcher can hit? I don’t know, but it got me thinking.
How Was The Game? (July 8, 2013)
A win, even if it wasn’t a pitcher win.
Tigers 4, Indians 2
Max Scherzer (13-0, 123.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 4.0 WAR) was only marginally affected by the adverse weather conditions and brief rain delay, allowing 2 runs and 3 walks in addition to punching out 7 Indians across 7 wet innings. He allowed both runs on a single immediately after the rain delay and didn’t allow another. The Tigers got one in the 2nd on a Peralta double and solo homerun from Tuiasosopo in the 4th. Other than that, both teams threatened but didn’t score until we headed into extra innings. The Tigers made the Indians pay for back to back walks to Cabrera and Fielder when Martinez smashed a two run double off the wall in centerfield to give the Tigers a two run lead, which would be all Benoit (#BackBenoit) would need. The win gives the Tigers 49 on the season, 3 in the series, and 7 out of 11 on the road trip. They’ll return home to meet the White Sox for the first time on Tuesday with Justin Verlander (9-5, 112 IP, 3.54 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.0 WAR) on the mound.
The Moment: Pena lets a Swisher dribbler roll fair while Swisher stood in the box, tags him with giant grin on his face.
How Was The Game? (July 7, 2013)
Up and Down
Indians 9, Tigers 6
After Miguel Cabrera put the Tigers ahead with a homer in the first, Doug Fister (6-5, 115 IP, 4.07 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.5 WAR) had a rough first inning, allowing four runs after a pair of two out walks that put the Tigers behind 4-1. Fister pitched well during his remaining innings, allowing just two solo homeruns in five innings, but he left the game with things looking less that peachy. However, the offense unloaded in the 7th and 8th innings, capped by a game tying 3 run homer by Torii Hunter in the 8th. Yet it wasn’t going to be that easy for the Tigers as Michael Brantly, who had quite the day, tagged Alburquerque for a 2 run HR in the 8th and put the Tigers behind again rather quickly. Despite the comeback effort, the Tigers fell to the Tribe for the first time in 8 games and lost their first game since Monday overall. They’ll still have a shot to take 3 of 4 from the Indians tomorrow behind Max Scherzer (13-0, 116.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 3.7 WAR), who will be making his final case to be chosen to start the All-Star Game.
The Moment: Hunter ties it with a bomb in the 8th.
How Was The Game? (July 6, 2013)
Another big win.
Tigers 9, Indians 4
On the day the All-Star Rosters were announced, the Tigers played like a team with 6 of them, but were lead by a great player left off the roster, returning starter Anibal Sanchez (7-5, 86.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.11 FIP, 3.4 WAR). Sanchez was on a pitch count, but turned in 5 great innings of 3 hit, 1 walk, 1 run, and 4 K baseball before turning it over to the bullpen. He was consistently in the mid 90s with his fastball and looked fully healthy, which is great news for the Tigers. The bats didn’t stay quiet either as the Tigers got 4 in the 3rd, 3 in the 4th, and 2 in the 6th thanks to back to back homeruns from Cabrera and Fielder, Torii Hunter coming a single short of the cycle, and two hits from the other All-Star, Jhonny Peralta. The win gets the Tigers 10 games above the .500 mark and have clinched no worse than a split in Cleveland this weekend after registering their 5th straight win. Scherzer and Verlander will watch their non-All-Star teammate, who certainly was deserving, Doug Fister (6-5, 109 IP, 3.80 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.9 WAR) take the baseball Sunday as the Tigers go for the series victory.
The Moment: Cabrera and Fielder go back to back.
How Was The Game? (July 5, 2013)
Another fantastic game.
Tigers 7, Indians 0
Coming off three straight wins the Tigers rolled into Cleveland and had no trouble putting them away. The bats scored early and often, crossing the plate in four separate innings totally 7 runs with Dirks and Martinez in the center of the attack, but Rick Porcello (5-6, 93.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.7 WAR) was the story as he turned in 7 shutout innings of 5 hit, 2 walk, 6 strikeout baseball and pitched in almost no traffic all night long. He gave up a little bit of hard contact, but those turned into outs quickly and he didn’t let one baserunner turn into four baserunners as he sometimes does when he’s off his game. He had all his pitches working and went to the breaking ball and offspeed stuff very effectively, making him look more like the dominate, potential front-line starter he was during May and early June (a breakdown here). He is 8th in major league baseball in park adjusted xFIP-. Here’s are important graphs on the subject, first regarding his strikeout and walks rates and second regarding his varying fastball and excellent curve:
Everything went well for the Tigers, as it has for the last four nights running, moving them to 47-38 as they give the ball to Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 81.2 IP, 2.76 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 3.2 WAR) who comes off the DL looking to jump back on his Cy Young track on Saturday.
The Moment: Porcello strikes out 6 on his way to 7 scoreless innings.
Picking the American League All-Stars
With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We’ll cover the NL tomorrow. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. Clay Buchholz would have been selected, as noted, but is currently injured. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.”
Enjoy and feel free to criticize the 7 Tigers I put on the list. I can’t make a case that they aren’t deserving, even if you think I’m a homer.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION |
| Joe Mauer | Twins | C |
| Chris Davis | Orioles | 1B |
| Jason Kipnis | Indians | 2B |
| Jhonny Peralta | Tigers | SS |
| Miguel Cabrera | Tigers | 3B |
| Mike Trout | Angels | OF |
| Jose Bautista | Jays | OF |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Red Sox | OF |
| David Ortiz | Red Sox | DH |
| Max Scherzer | Tigers | SP |
| Carlos Santana | Indians | C |
| Edwin Encarnacion | Jays | 1B |
| Dustin Pedroia | Red Sox | 2B |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 2B |
| Jed Lowrie | Athletics | SS |
| Evan Longoria | Rays | 3B |
| Manny Machado | Orioles | 3B |
| Josh Donaldson | Athletics | 3B |
| Nate McClouth | Orioles | OF |
| Alex Gordon | Royals | OF |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | OF |
| Adam Lind | Jays | DH |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | SP |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | SP |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | SP |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | SP |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | SP |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | SP |
| Doug Fister | Tigers | SP |
| Bud Norris | Astros | SP |
| Brett Cecil | Jays | RP |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | RP |
| Drew Smyly | Tigers | RP |
| Jesse Crain | White Sox | RP |
| Clay Buchholz* | Red Sox | SP |
| FIRST REPLACEMENTS | ||
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 3B |
| Omar Infante | Tigers | 2B |
| Howie Kendrick | Angels | 2B |
| Adrian Beltre | Rangers | 3B |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | SP |
| Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | RP |
| Joe Nathan | Rangers | RP |
| * injured |
The Morning Edition (July 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mets and Dbacks each score once in the 13th and 14th before the Snakes win it in 15
- Hamels looks great as he beats Cole and the Bucs
- The A’s takes the Cubs in a 1-0 pitchers’ duel
- Tampa beats the Astros in 11
- Shields struggles, but the Royals storm the Indians with 10 in the final 3 innings to win
- Quintana dominates, but Jones coughs it up for the Sox, only to walk off in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lee takes on the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler heads to Miller Park (8p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner gets the Cards (8p Eastern)
- Ryu and Cain out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will be named All-Stars as the voting closes last night at midnight?
The interesting one is going to be the AL 3B spot. Obviously, Cabrera is going in as the starter, but between the players and Leyland it’s hard to imagine more than 2 others getting in, three at most. Here are the candidates though:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| Miguel Cabrera | 383 | 26 | 65 | 85 | 0.364 | 0.454 | 0.670 | 0.470 | 202 | 5.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 356 | 17 | 52 | 48 | 0.294 | 0.365 | 0.537 | 0.382 | 149 | 4.4 |
| Manny Machado | 392 | 6 | 53 | 42 | 0.319 | 0.349 | 0.481 | 0.359 | 125 | 4.2 |
| Josh Donaldson | 353 | 14 | 46 | 55 | 0.314 | 0.382 | 0.526 | 0.389 | 151 | 3.8 |
| Kyle Seager | 361 | 12 | 43 | 38 | 0.280 | 0.338 | 0.465 | 0.348 | 127 | 2.9 |
| Adrian Beltre | 354 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.494 | 0.358 | 121 | 2.2 |
Longoria and Machado are the most deserving overall, but Donaldson is the best overall hitter and no one really cares about defense when it comes to picking All-Stars. Plus Beltre has the name recognition and Seager should get some credit for being a great hitter on a terrible club. Third base in the AL is a deep spot. We’ll have more on the All-Star Selections as the happen.
The Morning Edition (July 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harper homers in his return from the DL, Nats beat the Crew
- Fernandez goes 8 scoreless with 10 K to lead the Marlins over the Friars
- Matt Moore strikes out many Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber looks to bounce back (8p Eastern)
- Price returns from the DL to face the Astros (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw battles Oswalt at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What about the young pitchers?
So much attention is paid to the Trout, Harper, Machado…Puig(?) talk, but the game’s young starters are having some fun too. Obviously Harvey is getting the bulk of the attention because he’s ripping off a Cy Young season, but Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are now 17th and 18th in park adjusted FIP- in all of baseball and both have ERA’s below 3.00. These guys are having great seasons, and that doesn’t even include Patrick Corbin, all the way down at 21st.
The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
- Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
- Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
- Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
- Darvish beats Latos
- The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
- Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
- Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
- Sox walk off on the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a realistic season for Puig?
The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.
New English D 