The Morning Edition (July 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hamels twirls a gem against the Nats
- CC goes the distance, but Shields and the Royals hold off the Yanks
- Josh Johnson has a good day, but the Tribe shut out his Jays
- Machado homers, but the Rangers beat the O’s 8-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner takes the hill (1230p Eastern)
- Wheeler and Cain (330p Eastern)
- Gio and Lee from the left side (7p Eastern)
- Miller faces the Astros, strikeout warning in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How much should we care about pitcher-hitting?
Dave Cameron threw out some tweets today regarding the (false) perception that the Pirates can’t hit citing that they are 11th in MLB in non-pitcher wRC+. However, their pitchers are comically and historically bad, as Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this year. So while the Pirates non-pitchers are almost in the top 3rd in wRC+, they fall off a bit when you add in their pitchers and are in the bottom third in runs scored. PNC is a pitchers park, but not in an extreme way. All told, it got me thinking. We don’t really think of pitchers as part of the offense, but they get 2-3 PA a game and can have a meaningful impact on the outcome of a game. I think it might be time to either add the DH to the NL or start seriously considering how much a team can benefit from pitchers who are good at hitting. We tend to brush it off, but might their be something to paying attention to how well a pitcher can hit? I don’t know, but it got me thinking.
The Morning Edition (July 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Lannan sharp before Papelbon tries to give it away to the Nats
- 6 run 6th inning helps the Rangers and Holland top Feldman and the O’s
- Colon out duels Locke
- Gomez robs a Votto homerun to end the game in Milwaukee
- Braves score 6 in the 14th to beat the Fish
- Good starts on the west coast
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shields and CC hook up in NY (7p Eastern)
- Norris faces Wainwright in St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Nolasco makes his first start with LA (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do you care about the homerun derby?
The HR Derby picks came out yesterday and NL features Wright, Cuddyer, Harper, and CarGo while the AL offers Cano, Fielder, Davis, and TBA (because apparently Cano can’t even get that right). A lot of people were upset with some of the picks because their hometown guy didn’t get picked or because someone strange (Cuddyer) or someone who was hurt (Harper) got picked. I don’t really care too much about the Derby, but someone people really seem to. It’s always seemed like a really weird publicity stunt that didn’t quite make sense. I’d like to see a reformatting. Thoughts?
The Morning Edition (July 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Corbin goes 8, strikes out 10 as the Snakes beat the Rockies
- Price goes the distance to beat the White Sox
- The Dodgers get 3 in the 9th to back Kershaw’s 8 strong innings
- The Cubs walk off in 11
- Fernandez looks ordinary in loss to the Cards
- The Nats back Strasburg in a slugfest with the Padres
- Rivera gives up a game winner to Jones and the O’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Derek Holland comes to Camden (7p Eastern)
- Garza keeps on the trade audition tour against the weak hitting White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Bailey takes the mound for the first time since the no hitter (8p Eastern)
- Lester goes to Seattle to face Felix (10p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey takes his show to SF (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this really happening again?
It is. Mike Trout is back on the chase after a homerun on Sunday night and now ranks 3rd among all MLB qualifiers with 161 wRC+, trailing only Cabrera and Davis. Mix in his great baserunning and better defense along with playing a more important defensive position and he’s only looking up at Miguel Cabrera on the WAR leaderboard. It’s Cabrera at 5.8 and Trout at 5.1. It’s happening again and I love it. Trout is essentially on pace to match his 2012 campaign, which would put him on some sort of ridiculous career trajectory. Think about this, Miguel Cabrera became the best hitter in the sport in his late 20s. Trout is 21. He’s probably at his peak defensively and on the bases, but he’s going to get better at the plate. What could this guy do? In the last 365 days, Trout (10.5) and Cabrera (9.2) are 1 and 2 in WAR and Trout already has more than 15 WAR in his career. Since 1901, only 2 players have accumulated more WAR through age 21: Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. That’s a list for ya.
The Morning Edition (July 7, 2013)
From Last Night:
- MLB All-Star Game participants announced, see below for commentary
- Sale goes 7, gives up 2 ER, 1 BB, and Ks 9…loses again….
- Cardinals walk off on the Fish
- Santana and Parker both solid, but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Royals
- Dickey goes deep into the game, but surrenders 6 runs as the Twins beat the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kuroda goes against the O’s (1p Eastern)
- Strasburg toes the slab in DC (1p Eastern)
- Danks and Price hook up in Tampa (130p Eastern)
- Fernandez takes on the Cardinals (2p Eastern)
- Burnett comes off the DL to face the Cubs (2p Eastern)
- Kershaw faces the Giants (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do the All-Star rosters look?
So let me break the ASG rosters down in a very simple way. I’m only going to point out players who got left off criminally and players who probably shouldn’t be on the team. As usual, most of the roster is right, and it’s messed up at the margins. Here are my AL and NL picks and here are the full rosters.
Players Who Should Be on the Rosters:
- Evan Longoria is 6th in MLB in position player WAR, the only AL reserve who could even reasonably be considered more deserving than Longoria is Machado. It’s a crime that Longo isn’t in the game.
- Josh Donaldson is 9th in WAR and is on the outside looking in because you can’t have a million 3B on your team. It’s understandable that one of these guys got left off, it’s unacceptable that both didn’t make it. Either could go as a DH, or replace one of the catching backups or one of the 3 backup 2B.
- Honorable mention to Kyle Seager, because he belongs, but 3B is too deep to make much of a case.
- Ellsbury and Gardner are also better choices than Hunter and Cruz, but it’s less egregious.
- Marte and Choo probably belong over Dom Brown
- Derek Holland is 4th in MLB in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster. Not much justification for that.
- Homer Bailey is 5th in the NL in pitcher WAR but isn’t on the roster, hard to buy Locke, Wood, and Bumgarner over him
Players Who Shouldn’t Be on the Roster
- I know he was voted by the fans, so it’s a popularity thing, but Adam Jones has very little business being in the game over some of the guys who missed.
- Bartolo Colon probably doesn’t need to be on the roster, but he has 11 wins, and those are shiny. His A’s teammate Josh Donaldson should get to go in his place even if they play different positions
- Prince Fielder really shouldn’t be an All-Star, but he’s in because he’s well known, has RBI, and it is a pretty down year for 1B in the AL. Longoria or Donaldson really should go in his place
- I love Ben Zobrist, but he has to only be in the game over Longoria because he’s versatile and can fill in for injured guys. There is nothing else that justifies him being on the team over Longo
- Cruz and Hunter together make one good All-Star, but each on their own doesn’t do much for me. Not a huge error, but probably not deserving given who was left off
- Brandon Phillips should not be an All-Star this year. Fan vote, so can’t say too much.
- Dominic Brown is probably a no for me, but it’s not terrible.
I’m sure some of you disagree with these comments, but that’s the way this works. Undeserving players get picked because of name value or voters looking at the wrong numbers, but I stand by the ones about which I wrote most strongly. Longoria and Donaldson must be All-Stars. I don’t care who comes off as long as it isn’t Cabrera, Gomez, Trout, Davis, or Wright. Literally, 2 of the top 10 players in baseball aren’t going to the game. Come on guys.
Picking the National League All-Stars
With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We covered the AL yesterday. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.” Finally, I watch a ton of baseball, but I watch fewer NL games by function of being a Tigers fan, so some of the down ballot selections are a bit less sure footed.
And I just couldn’t leave Puig out. He has to play in this game.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | C |
| Joey Votto | Reds | 1B |
| Matt Carpenter | Cardinals | 2B |
| Jean Segura | Brewers | SS |
| David Wright | Mets | 3B |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | OF |
| Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | OF |
| Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | OF |
| Buster Posey | Giants | DH |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | SP |
| Russell Martin | Pirates | C |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Dbacks | 1B |
| Allen Craig | Cardinals | 1B |
| Chase Utley | Phillies | 2B |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | SS |
| Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | 3B |
| Starling Marte | Pirates | OF |
| Bryce Harper | Nationals | OF |
| Shin Soo Choo | Reds | OF |
| Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | OF |
| Michael Cuddyer | Rockies | OF |
| Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | SP |
| Cliff Lee | Phillies | SP |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | SP |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | SP |
| Mat Latos | Reds | SP |
| Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | SP |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | SP |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | SP |
| Craig Kimbrel | Braves | RP |
| Sergio Romo | Giants | RP |
| Mark Melancon | Pirates | RP |
| Jason Grilli | Pirates | RP |
| Ryan Braun* | Brewers | OF |
| Troy Tulowitzki* | Rockies | SS |
| Evereth Cabrera* | Padres | SS |
| FIRST REPLACEMENTS | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | SP |
| Patrick Corbin | Dbacks | SP |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals | SP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | SP |
| Chris Johnson | Braves | 3B |
| Carlos Beltran | Cardinals | OF |
| Dominic Brown | Phillies | OF |
| * INJURED |
The Morning Edition (July 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mets and Dbacks each score once in the 13th and 14th before the Snakes win it in 15
- Hamels looks great as he beats Cole and the Bucs
- The A’s takes the Cubs in a 1-0 pitchers’ duel
- Tampa beats the Astros in 11
- Shields struggles, but the Royals storm the Indians with 10 in the final 3 innings to win
- Quintana dominates, but Jones coughs it up for the Sox, only to walk off in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lee takes on the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler heads to Miller Park (8p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner gets the Cards (8p Eastern)
- Ryu and Cain out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will be named All-Stars as the voting closes last night at midnight?
The interesting one is going to be the AL 3B spot. Obviously, Cabrera is going in as the starter, but between the players and Leyland it’s hard to imagine more than 2 others getting in, three at most. Here are the candidates though:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| Miguel Cabrera | 383 | 26 | 65 | 85 | 0.364 | 0.454 | 0.670 | 0.470 | 202 | 5.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 356 | 17 | 52 | 48 | 0.294 | 0.365 | 0.537 | 0.382 | 149 | 4.4 |
| Manny Machado | 392 | 6 | 53 | 42 | 0.319 | 0.349 | 0.481 | 0.359 | 125 | 4.2 |
| Josh Donaldson | 353 | 14 | 46 | 55 | 0.314 | 0.382 | 0.526 | 0.389 | 151 | 3.8 |
| Kyle Seager | 361 | 12 | 43 | 38 | 0.280 | 0.338 | 0.465 | 0.348 | 127 | 2.9 |
| Adrian Beltre | 354 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.494 | 0.358 | 121 | 2.2 |
Longoria and Machado are the most deserving overall, but Donaldson is the best overall hitter and no one really cares about defense when it comes to picking All-Stars. Plus Beltre has the name recognition and Seager should get some credit for being a great hitter on a terrible club. Third base in the AL is a deep spot. We’ll have more on the All-Star Selections as the happen.
The Morning Edition (July 4, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix and Holland hold both clubs to 2 runs, but the bullpens settle it in 10 on a Seager bomb
- Gomes walks off on the Padres
- Nolasco does well in front of the scouts, beats the Braves
- Norris pitches well in trade audition to beat the Rays
- CC goes 7 to beat the Twins
- Grilli gives up 2 runs, gets a save anyway because the save rule is silly
- Lohse twirls a gem to top the Nats
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cain and Leake in Cinci (1p Eastern)
- Gerrit Cole Hamles matchup! (1p Eastern)
- Shields continues to get no help from his team (2p Eastern)
- Wainwright takes on the Angels (9p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s your take on the no-hitter war?
Brian Kenny, who we’re quite fond of at New English D, took to the airwaves and Twitter on Wednesday to mock the attention give to no-hitters because walks and hit batters are part of the game and that separating it into hits and other ways to get on base is misguided. While I understand the sentiment and am I big believing in walks as offensive weapons, there is a different argument that Kenny hasn’t responded to at this point. No hitters are not always great performances, I fully agree. A one hit shutout is better than a 5 walk no hitter, but no hitters in all their forms are much rarer that no walk games. Since 1916, there have been more than 9,000 CG with no BB or HBP, but less than 300 CG with no hits. Less than 30 with no baserunners, period. The point here is that one baserunner is one baserunner no matter how he gets on, but it is much rarer to allow no hits than no walks and that is something worth celebrating. Kenny is right that the mainstream press doesn’t cover one hitters appropriately compared to no hitters with several walks, but I think the problem is in the other direction. Kenny thinks no-hitters are no big deal when the pitcher walks a couple guys, but I think we just don’t give enough credit to 1 and 2 hitters. Here at New English D, we make an attempt to highlight all great pitching performances, but do value the no hitter because the no hitter is rare and it’s quirky. After all, baseball is fun. I don’t usually disagree with Kenny, but on this issue I do.
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (July 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez (coming of the DL July 6th)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s get the minor changes out of the way first. Stephen Strasburg is back on the list because he’s off the DL and I’ve decided to let Anibal Sanchez slide because he is schedule to come off the DL when his turn comes up in the rotation this weekend. Clay Buchholz gets the DL treatment, so he’s off the list for the time being because you can’t watch a guy who doesn’t pitch.
Doug Fister moves from the borderline italics section to the permanent list because he’s really good and Chris Sale gets a first even jump for not listed to regular type with his fantastic month of June. Jon Lester has really stumbled since his strong April so he’s off the list until he gets himself back on track, and Matt Moore, whom I really wanted to be great this year, is walking too many batters to be considered must watch. The strikeouts and run prevention is good, but if he doesn’t get his control in line he’ll regress a good deal.
Finally, the list gets three new names in the italics section. Mat Latos and Derek Holland have pitched too well to ignore even if I haven’t personally enjoyed their starts as much as their teams have. Both guys are on notice as I haven’t really fallen in love with their outings, but they’ve earned mention. Finally, Jose Fernandez has been lights out this season and after last night’s gem, he’s earned your attention. The Marlins have two players worth watching! I’m crossing my fingers for Jacob Turner.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
The Morning Edition (July 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Harper homers in his return from the DL, Nats beat the Crew
- Fernandez goes 8 scoreless with 10 K to lead the Marlins over the Friars
- Matt Moore strikes out many Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg takes on the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber looks to bounce back (8p Eastern)
- Price returns from the DL to face the Astros (8p Eastern)
- Kershaw battles Oswalt at Coors (830p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What about the young pitchers?
So much attention is paid to the Trout, Harper, Machado…Puig(?) talk, but the game’s young starters are having some fun too. Obviously Harvey is getting the bulk of the attention because he’s ripping off a Cy Young season, but Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez are now 17th and 18th in park adjusted FIP- in all of baseball and both have ERA’s below 3.00. These guys are having great seasons, and that doesn’t even include Patrick Corbin, all the way down at 21st.
The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
- Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
- Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
- Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
- Darvish beats Latos
- The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
- Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
- Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
- Sox walk off on the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a realistic season for Puig?
The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.
New English D 