The Morning Edition (July 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wheeler great, Cain awful in a big Mets win
- Another great start for Turner in Miami
- The Angels unload on the Cubs, get a good start from Wilson
- Lee gives up four solo homeruns in a loss to the Nationals
- Toronto tops Cleveland after a wild 9th
- Nova and the Yanks handle the Royals easily
- Twins and Rays play deep into the night, Zobrist walks off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale and Sanchez in Detroit (1p Eastern)
- Zimmermann goes against the Phils (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner (underrated) and Marquis (overrated) face off in Petco (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How should we pick the ASG starter?
There’s been some debate, as there always is regarding ASG stuff, as to who should start for each side. Harvey is the frontrunner in the NL because he is having one of the best seasons and the game is at his home park. It’s not a lock that he should start on merit, but he’s in the conversation and the hometown thing probably pushes him over. I think it’s safe to say Harvey, Wainwright, and Kershaw are the contenders, but depending on what stats you like, you can make a case that any of them are the best starter so far. But should it be about the best starter so far this season? Should it be about the best starter for the last calendar year? The biggest star? The guy who we judge to be the best, because the game does count? It’s not a clear formula. For what it’s worth, Wainwright is schedule to pitch Sunday so he’s probably out. Kershaw and Harvey are both “stop what you’re doing and watch guys” who are having elite years and are top 10 guys since the last ASG. If you’re asking for six outs, they can both get them with the best of them. Is there really a way to separate who should get the start if we don’t have a fixed definition. If Kershaw was far and away having a better season, it might be different, but they’re pretty even, so it just makes sense to go with Harvey…I think. Kershaw’s about to get $200 million. Harvey could have that in his future, but he has more work to do. Let’s go with Harvey.
The Morning Edition (July 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hamels twirls a gem against the Nats
- CC goes the distance, but Shields and the Royals hold off the Yanks
- Josh Johnson has a good day, but the Tribe shut out his Jays
- Machado homers, but the Rangers beat the O’s 8-4
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner takes the hill (1230p Eastern)
- Wheeler and Cain (330p Eastern)
- Gio and Lee from the left side (7p Eastern)
- Miller faces the Astros, strikeout warning in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How much should we care about pitcher-hitting?
Dave Cameron threw out some tweets today regarding the (false) perception that the Pirates can’t hit citing that they are 11th in MLB in non-pitcher wRC+. However, their pitchers are comically and historically bad, as Jeff Sullivan noted earlier this year. So while the Pirates non-pitchers are almost in the top 3rd in wRC+, they fall off a bit when you add in their pitchers and are in the bottom third in runs scored. PNC is a pitchers park, but not in an extreme way. All told, it got me thinking. We don’t really think of pitchers as part of the offense, but they get 2-3 PA a game and can have a meaningful impact on the outcome of a game. I think it might be time to either add the DH to the NL or start seriously considering how much a team can benefit from pitchers who are good at hitting. We tend to brush it off, but might their be something to paying attention to how well a pitcher can hit? I don’t know, but it got me thinking.
The Morning Edition (July 8, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Corbin goes 8, strikes out 10 as the Snakes beat the Rockies
- Price goes the distance to beat the White Sox
- The Dodgers get 3 in the 9th to back Kershaw’s 8 strong innings
- The Cubs walk off in 11
- Fernandez looks ordinary in loss to the Cards
- The Nats back Strasburg in a slugfest with the Padres
- Rivera gives up a game winner to Jones and the O’s
What I’m Watching Today:
- Derek Holland comes to Camden (7p Eastern)
- Garza keeps on the trade audition tour against the weak hitting White Sox (8p Eastern)
- Bailey takes the mound for the first time since the no hitter (8p Eastern)
- Lester goes to Seattle to face Felix (10p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey takes his show to SF (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is this really happening again?
It is. Mike Trout is back on the chase after a homerun on Sunday night and now ranks 3rd among all MLB qualifiers with 161 wRC+, trailing only Cabrera and Davis. Mix in his great baserunning and better defense along with playing a more important defensive position and he’s only looking up at Miguel Cabrera on the WAR leaderboard. It’s Cabrera at 5.8 and Trout at 5.1. It’s happening again and I love it. Trout is essentially on pace to match his 2012 campaign, which would put him on some sort of ridiculous career trajectory. Think about this, Miguel Cabrera became the best hitter in the sport in his late 20s. Trout is 21. He’s probably at his peak defensively and on the bases, but he’s going to get better at the plate. What could this guy do? In the last 365 days, Trout (10.5) and Cabrera (9.2) are 1 and 2 in WAR and Trout already has more than 15 WAR in his career. Since 1901, only 2 players have accumulated more WAR through age 21: Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. That’s a list for ya.
Picking the National League All-Stars
With the All-Star rosters looming ahead this weekend, New English D weighs into the fray with these picks. We covered the AL yesterday. A few notes up front. First, I’ve conformed the roster size to the official requirements and have selected starters I feel are most deserving based on their 2013 seasons and have given no deference to the voting up through this point. My view is that the All-Star Game should showcase the game’s standout performers from the first half of 2013, not the best players over the last year or the best players by talent even if they haven’t performed. I think the game should highlight the players who play well, not the players MLB thinks are “marketable.” Every team is represented and I’ve given a list of players who are the first replacements for injuries and such. As you know, this site appreciates advanced statistics, so should you choose to comment on these selections, please do so without using “RBI” or “Wins.” Finally, I watch a ton of baseball, but I watch fewer NL games by function of being a Tigers fan, so some of the down ballot selections are a bit less sure footed.
And I just couldn’t leave Puig out. He has to play in this game.
| PLAYER | TEAM | POSITION |
| Yadier Molina | Cardinals | C |
| Joey Votto | Reds | 1B |
| Matt Carpenter | Cardinals | 2B |
| Jean Segura | Brewers | SS |
| David Wright | Mets | 3B |
| Carlos Gomez | Brewers | OF |
| Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | OF |
| Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | OF |
| Buster Posey | Giants | DH |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | SP |
| Russell Martin | Pirates | C |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Dbacks | 1B |
| Allen Craig | Cardinals | 1B |
| Chase Utley | Phillies | 2B |
| Ian Desmond | Nationals | SS |
| Pedro Alvarez | Pirates | 3B |
| Starling Marte | Pirates | OF |
| Bryce Harper | Nationals | OF |
| Shin Soo Choo | Reds | OF |
| Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | OF |
| Michael Cuddyer | Rockies | OF |
| Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | SP |
| Cliff Lee | Phillies | SP |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | SP |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | SP |
| Mat Latos | Reds | SP |
| Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | SP |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | SP |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | SP |
| Craig Kimbrel | Braves | RP |
| Sergio Romo | Giants | RP |
| Mark Melancon | Pirates | RP |
| Jason Grilli | Pirates | RP |
| Ryan Braun* | Brewers | OF |
| Troy Tulowitzki* | Rockies | SS |
| Evereth Cabrera* | Padres | SS |
| FIRST REPLACEMENTS | ||
| Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | SP |
| Patrick Corbin | Dbacks | SP |
| Shelby Miller | Cardinals | SP |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | SP |
| Chris Johnson | Braves | 3B |
| Carlos Beltran | Cardinals | OF |
| Dominic Brown | Phillies | OF |
| * INJURED |
The Morning Edition (July 5, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mets and Dbacks each score once in the 13th and 14th before the Snakes win it in 15
- Hamels looks great as he beats Cole and the Bucs
- The A’s takes the Cubs in a 1-0 pitchers’ duel
- Tampa beats the Astros in 11
- Shields struggles, but the Royals storm the Indians with 10 in the final 3 innings to win
- Quintana dominates, but Jones coughs it up for the Sox, only to walk off in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lee takes on the Braves (7p Eastern)
- Zack Wheeler heads to Miller Park (8p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner gets the Cards (8p Eastern)
- Ryu and Cain out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who will be named All-Stars as the voting closes last night at midnight?
The interesting one is going to be the AL 3B spot. Obviously, Cabrera is going in as the starter, but between the players and Leyland it’s hard to imagine more than 2 others getting in, three at most. Here are the candidates though:
| Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
| Miguel Cabrera | 383 | 26 | 65 | 85 | 0.364 | 0.454 | 0.670 | 0.470 | 202 | 5.4 |
| Evan Longoria | 356 | 17 | 52 | 48 | 0.294 | 0.365 | 0.537 | 0.382 | 149 | 4.4 |
| Manny Machado | 392 | 6 | 53 | 42 | 0.319 | 0.349 | 0.481 | 0.359 | 125 | 4.2 |
| Josh Donaldson | 353 | 14 | 46 | 55 | 0.314 | 0.382 | 0.526 | 0.389 | 151 | 3.8 |
| Kyle Seager | 361 | 12 | 43 | 38 | 0.280 | 0.338 | 0.465 | 0.348 | 127 | 2.9 |
| Adrian Beltre | 354 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.494 | 0.358 | 121 | 2.2 |
Longoria and Machado are the most deserving overall, but Donaldson is the best overall hitter and no one really cares about defense when it comes to picking All-Stars. Plus Beltre has the name recognition and Seager should get some credit for being a great hitter on a terrible club. Third base in the AL is a deep spot. We’ll have more on the All-Star Selections as the happen.
The Homer Bailey (Morning) Edition (July 3, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Homer Bailey pitches his second career no-hitter, first in MLB this season, against the Giants
- Bailey walked 1 and struck out 9 across 109 pitches
- Bailey is now 11th among pitchers in WAR at 2.9, has a 3.57 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 2.97 xFIP in 111 IP
- He is getting more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more groundballs than last year
- He did it basically with a fastball and slider, with a handful of changeups and curves mixed in
- He Verlander’d them, throwing harder as the game went on
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey Day! (7p Eastern)
- Felix faces Holland in Texas (8p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller heads to the big A (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did anything else interesting happen that didn’t make the cut in the headlines section?
Lackey was pretty good, some other stuff happened. First no-hitter in New English D history. Exciting stuff!
Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (July 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Jordan Zimmermann
- Anibal Sanchez (coming of the DL July 6th)
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s get the minor changes out of the way first. Stephen Strasburg is back on the list because he’s off the DL and I’ve decided to let Anibal Sanchez slide because he is schedule to come off the DL when his turn comes up in the rotation this weekend. Clay Buchholz gets the DL treatment, so he’s off the list for the time being because you can’t watch a guy who doesn’t pitch.
Doug Fister moves from the borderline italics section to the permanent list because he’s really good and Chris Sale gets a first even jump for not listed to regular type with his fantastic month of June. Jon Lester has really stumbled since his strong April so he’s off the list until he gets himself back on track, and Matt Moore, whom I really wanted to be great this year, is walking too many batters to be considered must watch. The strikeouts and run prevention is good, but if he doesn’t get his control in line he’ll regress a good deal.
Finally, the list gets three new names in the italics section. Mat Latos and Derek Holland have pitched too well to ignore even if I haven’t personally enjoyed their starts as much as their teams have. Both guys are on notice as I haven’t really fallen in love with their outings, but they’ve earned mention. Finally, Jose Fernandez has been lights out this season and after last night’s gem, he’s earned your attention. The Marlins have two players worth watching! I’m crossing my fingers for Jacob Turner.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
The Morning Edition (July 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 27 in a loss to the Giants
- Martin walks off in the 14th to beat the Crew
- Jeff Mathis walk off grand slam
- Puig’s big day lifts the Dodgers
- Darvish beats Latos
- The Royals take a wild one from the Twins 9-8
- Masterson shuts out the White Sox, Sale takes ANOTHER 8+IP, 10 K loss
- Wheeler gets shelled, loses to Gio and the Nats
- Sox walk off on the Jays
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zimmermann tries to quiet the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jose Fernandez versus the Padres (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore faces Houston, strikeout watch in effect (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What’s a realistic season for Puig?
The legend of Puig grows by the day as he had a 4 hit day on Sunday to lift the Dodgers. He’s currently 43rd among position players in WAR, which doesn’t sound impressive until you realize that he has just 107 PA and most of the people around him have 300+. Puig gets some flack for his plate discipline (3.8 BB%) but he did walk more in the minor leagues and you can’t really fault a guy for hacking when he seemingly can’t miss. In 107 PA he’s hitting .436/.467/.713 with 234 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. That’s ridiculous. He’ll come back to Earth, but he’s on pace for something like a 12.6 WAR season extrapolated out to a full season. One shouldn’t project out like that, but just for reference, that would be the 5th best season in baseball history behind four of Babe Ruth’s best seasons. That’s pretty cool. I have no idea where he’ll settle in, but the skills are there for him to sustain himself as an impact player.
The Morning Edition (June 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Davis homers twice to reach #30 as the O’s smack the Yanks
- Jacob Turner twirls his first CG, drops 7 K on the Padres
- Wainwright goes the distance again to beat the A’s, Parker leaves with an injury
- Cuddyer extends the streak to 26 as the Rockies spoil 8 great innings from Cain
- Liriano solid as the Bucs are the first to 50
- Mesoraco lifts the Reds in the 11th
- Soriano’s 11th inning HR beats the M’s
- Bautista homers twice to beat the Sox
What I’m Watching Today:
- Zack Wheeler pitches at Citi Field for the first time (1p Eastern)
- Chris Sale looks to jump onto the Appointment TV list (2p Eastern)
- Latos and Darvish in Arlington (3p Eastern)
- Bonderman! (4p Eastern)
- The underrated Madison Bumgarner (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Chris Sale have another great outing?
I’ve often chided Sale for his delivery because it looks like he’s about to require TJ surgery after every pitch, but it’s working for him and he’s healthy so far. He’s also had a couple of great outings lately that his team didn’t support very well and he’s looking to keep at least half of that equation going. As I prepare to update the Appointment TV list of starters on Tuesday, Sale is definitely on notice. Another great start and he’s a lock. A solid one and he should still make it easily. Sale’s currently 13th among starters in WAR with 2.7 and has improved across the board this season after a very strong 2012. His platoon splits are fun to look at, too. The strikeouts and walks are pretty similar, but man is the triple slash line crazy. Lefties don’t strikeout more or walk much less than righties, but they are essentially helpless. They have ZERO extra base hits.
I would recommend Francona avoid playing his lefties. Just a thought. Or outlaw the slider.
The Morning Edition (June 29, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Indians beat the Sox 19-10 in game one of a DH, Casper Wells (the OF!) is the only Sox arm not to allow a hit
- Harvey goes 7, gives up 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K…doesn’t get a win and the Mets lose
- Teheran K’s 10 Dbacks, Braves win 3-0
- CC dominates early, but the Orioles get to him late to win 4-3
- The Pirates big inning backs Cole’s victory
- Miller gets chased early in Oakland
- Cuddyer takes the hit streak to 25
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright duels Parker in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Turner welcomes the Friars to Miami (7p Eastern)
- Liriano tries to keep up his ’06 impression (7p Eastern)
- Lee and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is it time to track Cuddyer?
On an eventful Friday, three things stood out most. First, the Indians and White Sox played an insane game that featured former Tigers outfielder throwing a scoreless inning. Second, Matt Harvey threw another brilliant gem that his team coughed up. Third, Michael Cuddyer has now crossed the 25 game mark on his hit streak. I usually take notice around 20 and lock in past 25. I’m in love with hit streak chases because DiMaggio’s 56 game streak is the the single most impressive record in professional sports and any attempt to get near it is so impressive. Cuddyer only needs three more hits to be halfway. Wow.
New English D 