Miguel Cabrera’s Extremely Rare Stat Line
Correction: In the original positing of this article, we left out Barry Bonds’ 2002 season. This feat has been accomplished 16 times by 7 different players. Two have do so in the last 50 years. New English D apologizes for the error.
I think we’re past the point where I need to tell you that Miguel Cabrera is an exceptionally gifted hitter. It’s pretty clear. Obvious, even. Maybe we could argue over whether or not he’s the best hitter in the game or the best player or whatnot, but we’re all in agreement that he’s great and we’re all comfortable saying he’s having one of, if not, the best seasons right now. He’s a great player who is playing very well.
He won the Triple Crown last year to a lot of fanfare, and while I don’t ascribe much importance to RBI, it’s still very interesting and very cool that he led the league in all three of those categories when no one had done it in decades. But he’s having a better season in 2013 than he did last year despite the fact that Chris Davis is out homering him. In fact, Cabrera is having quite the impressive season by any standard. By his triple slash line, (meaning his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage), he is having a season that has only happened 15 times in the modern era (since 1901).
Miguel Cabrera is currently hitting .370/.462/.646. which is tied with Davis for the best wRC+ in baseball at 199. Now that isn’t the best offensive season ever, but it’s very good. And it’s extremely rare. Since 1901, a .370/.460/.640 or better season has only happened 15 times it’s only been done by 6 separate players.
Now I don’t mean to say that Cabrera’s first 74 games will perfectly predict his final stat line or that we can hope to extrapolate someone’s performance to predict the future, but these are rate stats and there is no real reason to think Cabrera is playing dramatically over his head. So it’s not totally unreasonable to consider these numbers as potential full season targets.
And I also don’t mean to consider these statistics out of context. wRC+ and WAR are designed to compare players across eras, and I’m fully aware that Miguel Cabrera’s .370 average is not the same as a .370 in 1950. I’m not saying Cabrera is having one of the 20 best offensive seasons ever, I’m saying he’s having one of the rarest combinations of a high average, good patience, and power ever.
What is also so remarkable about this is that only one of the 15 seasons on this list has come in the last 56 years (Here’s the full list). Only Todd Helton’s 2000 season (at Coors during the Steroid Era). Since Ted Williams did it in 1957, only one person has mixed a high average and power the way Cabrera is doing this year. I know the run scoring environment changes over time, but Cabrera is playing in a low average, low OBP, high power era relative to the others on this list, so it’s not like he’s unfairly lifted by context.
Bonds never did it. Griffey never did it. Manny never did it. It’s pretty cool.
Cabrera is essentially the best “pure hitter” and the best “power hitter” in baseball right now and he is having his best offensive season. Just look at the names on that list. Those are baseball’s all-time greats (and Todd Helton). Cabrera looks poised to win his 3rd consecutive batting title (he also finished 2nd in 2010) and is also hitting for excellent power. He’s doing something that has been done just once in the last half century and has only been done by some of the game’s best players.
This isn’t meant to be a post about exactly where Cabrera’s season ranks or what it means to hit .370, it’s really just about pointing out how ridiculous it is to both hit .370 and slug .640. It’s not exactly a typical stat line.
Miguel Cabrera isn’t exactly a typical hitter, though.
The Morning Edition (June 24, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Pirates get 3 in the 9th to tie, 4 in the 10th to take the lead and almost give it back as they outlast the Angels
- Morales walks off on the A’s in 10
- The Mets get 8 as Harvey goes 6 scoreless
- Cashner is brilliant, but Street blows it in the 9th
- Latos K’s 13 Dbacks and the Reds survive a rough inning from Chapman
- Toronto slugs their way to 11 straight wins
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee visits Petco (10p Eastern)
- Bumgarner faces Ryu (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How can MLB only schedule four games for today?
Clayton Kershaw has thrown 113.1 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.06 ERA, 2.16 FIP, and 2.9 WAR.
Mat Latos has thrown 103.1 IP, 8.7 K/9, 2.44 BB/9, 3.05 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 2.3 WAR.
They aren’t dramatically different, but Kershaw is pretty much better across the board. Kershaw is 5-5 and Latos is 7-1. It’s time to stop caring about pitcher won loss record, it simply isn’t an indicator of individual pitcher performance.
How Was The Game? (June 23, 2013)
Bizarre.
Tigers 7, Red Sox 5
Despite the fact that starting pitching is the hallmark of the 2013 Tigers and the fact that Justin Verlander (8-5, 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.8 WAR) entered the season as one of the game’s top starters, today wasn’t really a day for such things to be on display. Verlander was inefficient and off his mark, going just 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 runs, and 3 walks while only striking out 4. He wasn’t knocked around, but he was not the master of the mound that we have come to expect. A key issuse, today at least, was the lack of horizontal movement on his curveball. Take a look at this comparison between his start today and his game averages last season:
His teammates helped him out, however, as Cabrera and Fielder knocked in runs in the first, Holaday scored on a passed ball in the 2nd, and then Jhonny Peralta delivered the tying run on a bases loaded hit by pitch in the 7th. It was a funky game that included a ridiculous play by Victor Martinez and a play in which Dustin Pedroia dropped a line drive, only to failed to get a double play because Napoli tagged the base before he tagged the immobile Jackson. Then of course, there was the 8th inning fly ball that Nava caught cleanly in RF that turned into a double because…well…I’m not entirely sure. The umpires just totally missed it. Then Holaday tried to sacrifice bunt and reached on an error and Jackson walked to set up a Torii Hunter go-ahead sac fly and a Prince Fielder go-further-ahead 2 RBI single. Thanks to some solid relief work by Smyly and Benoit (who gave up 1 R), the Tigers road the strange inning to a series win and a 42-32 record overall. They’ll take Monday off before turning to Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.3 WAR) to start the three game set with the Angels.
The Moment(s): Victor Martinez makes a circus play at first AND Garcia doubles on a fly out.
Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).
57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)
Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS
51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)
Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS
49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)
Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS
19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)
Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS
18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH
11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)
All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH
8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT
7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH
6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT
5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS
4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:
I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS
3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)
Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT
2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:
Not bad. HIT
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (June 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Rangers knock Miller around, win 4-2
- Kluber unimpressive, Walters very-not-impressive, as Indians win 8-7
- Greinke goes 8, gives up 1 ER, keeps Quentin off the bases in first meeting with SD since brawl
- Corbin and Leake were brilliant, but Bell and Chapman blow saves as the Dbacks win
- Papelbon blows the game, gets a W as his Frandsen bails him out
- Turner and Zito are both sharp, Giants win in 11
- Myers hits a GS off Sabathia, but the Rays pen gives it away
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey day in Philly (1p Eastern)
- James Shields’ hilarious W/L record on display (2p Eastern)
- Cain tries to stay hot (4p Eastern)
- Parker and Bonderman (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright on Sunday night (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until we stop idolizing closers?
I wrote earlier in the week that “proven closers” are a myth and that you can very easily invent a 9th inning save-getter with almost no effort. That should be easily on display as many “proven” guys melted down on Saturday. Let’s rethink bullpen usage. This is how I’d allocate the spots:
- Relief ace (pitches in highest leverage situations)
- High leverage righty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- High leverage lefty (can get out both lefties and righties)
- Right Handed Specialist
- Left Handed Specialist
- Long Reliever
- Long Reliever
I want bullpens to be used so that the situation and matchup dictates who comes into the game, not the inning on the scoreboard or whether or not something is a “Save.” If you carry two long men, you can also let them eat up two and three innings at a time so that on nights where there are big leads or deficits, you just don’t go to anyone else after your starter. Most teams barely have one good long man, when they should probably have two. If readers are interested, I’d be happy to expand on how this would work. Last year starters averaged 6 innings per start. Managers should be thinking about how to get 6-12 outs a night from 7 relievers, rather than getting to the 9th inning and their closer.
How Was The Game? (June 22, 2013)
Nice and comfortable.
Tigers 10, Red Sox 3
Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.3 WAR) gave up two runs in the first inning and then the offense unloaded and he remembered he is now MAX SCHERZER in capital letters.
Despite the two early runs, Scherzer finished with a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 run, 0 walk, and 6 strikeout evening, adding to his brilliant season and Cy Young campaign. Scherzer now leads all AL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 3.3 (also in Run Support per 9 with 7.83). I mean, check this out. He threw almost nothing off the plate inside:
The bats did more than enough, as Martinez got the scoring going with a 1st inning grand slam, before Jackson drove in a run in the 4th, and the Tigers took off with 2 more in the 5th and 7th each and 1 in the 8th. After the 1st inning, it was never really in doubt as Scherzer shifted into cruise control and allowed just three additional baserunners to earn his his team the victory. The win lifts the Tigers to 41-32 and they will go for the series win against the AL leading Red Sox behind the forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.7 WAR).
The Moment: Victor Martinez hits a first inning grand slam, goes 2-3 with a GS, 2B, 2 BB, 5 RBI, and 3 R
The Nine Most Valuable Powerless Seasons of the Last Decade
Power hitters get all the headlines. And all the cash. People love homeruns. I get it, homeruns are good. But homeruns aren’t everything. Getting on base matters more than hitting for extra bases and defense and baserunning are important aspects of the game. ESPN has a homerun tracker, but they don’t have a leadoff single tracker. It’s a cultural thing.
So here, I’m going to pay homage to the powerless players who sometimes get overlooked. This is The Nine Most Valuable Powerless Seasons of the Last Decade. The rules are simple. These are the players who posted the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values while having a slugging percentage that was below league average from 2004-2013.
For starters, here is league average slugging by season:
9. Russel Martin, 2008 Yankees (.396 SLG, 4.8 WAR)
8. B.J. Upton, 2008 Rays (.401 SLG, 4.8 WAR)
7. Brett Gardner, 2011 Yankees (.369 SLG, 4.9 WAR)
6. Nyjer Morgan, 2009 Pirates and Nationals (.388 SLG, 5.0 WAR)
5. Ichiro Suzuki, 2006 Mariners (.416 SLG, 5.3 WAR)
4. Jose Reyes, 2007 Mets (.421 SLG, 5.3 WAR)
3. Brett Gardner, 2010 Yankees (.379 SLG, 6.0 WAR)
2. Michael Bourn, 2012 Braves (.391 SLG, 6.1 WAR)
1. Chone Figgins, 2009 Angels (.393 SLG, 6.6 WAR)
Obviously, Figgins parlayed this season into a big deal and Upton, Bourn, Reyes, and Ichiro all did just fine for themselves too. So this group isn’t entirely underpaid, just under appreciated. Seriously, Michael Bourn finished 18th in the NL MVP vote last year despite having the 7th highest WAR among all NL players.
In 2013, Jacoby Ellsbury’s .391 SLG and 2.1 WAR lead the way.
The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
- Kazmir dominates the Twins
- Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
- Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
- Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
- Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
- Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?
As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:
But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.
How Was The Game? (June 21, 2013)
Not for the purists.
Red Sox 10, Tigers 6
The box score just looks ugly. Both starters allowed 4 run innings and both teams had 10 or more hits. It was one of those traffic on the bases, always threatening games. Doug Fister (6-5, 96 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.7 WAR) had an ugly line, but most of the damage came on groundballs that found holes and that’s just something you live with when you have such an extreme groundball pitcher on the mound. Usually it works nicely for him. Fister finished with 3.1 inning, 11 hits, 6 runs, 1 BB, and 0 K. The offense did fine work as Pena singled in a run in the 2nd and the Tigers got 4 in the 5th on a Dirk solo shot and a Cabrera 3 run HR. The bullpen surrendered 4 additional runs, but two of which came without the benefit of a hit and one came on a Garcia error, so you can’t really blame them. The Tigers will try to secure no worse than a split behind Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.1 WAR) on Saturday, who is making a case to start the All-Star game.
The Moment: Cabrera launches a 3 run HR.
Doug Fister’s Quiet Brilliance
Doug Fister is an ace. He is. There’s no getting around it. It wasn’t supposed to be like this, but here we are. Twenty two months after the Mariners sent him to the Tigers for a package of players that are either no longer in their organization or are Charlie Furbush and Chance Ruffin, Doug Fister has established himself as one of baseball’s best starting pitchers.
This year, he currently ranks 9th in WAR with 2.8 and 5 of the guys above him on the list have made at least one more start than he has. He takes the mound tonight and could reasonably push himself into the top five range. It’s not just this year, it’s been every year. Last year he missed a quarter of the season with an oblique injury and still ranked 27th in WAR. Only Medlen and Strasburg out-pitched him in fewer innings.
Since the start of 2011, only five starting pitchers have a higher WAR. Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix, Hernandez, and CC Sabathia. That’s it. That’s the whole list. Fister missed a quarter of the season in 2012 and since the beginning of 2011 only five pitchers have been better and they all have at least 70 more innings in that span.
Don’t get me wrong, the number of innings you pitch matters a great deal, but it’s important to note. Doug Fister, despite missing time, is holding his own with the best handful of starters in MLB. How is he doing it?
Fister doesn’t throw hard. His fastball averages 88-89 mph. He does it with command, movement, and pitch selection and he does that better than anyone else. Jered Weaver is the only other starting pitcher in the top 25 in WAR over the last 3 seasons to average a fastball under 90 mph and Weaver is 9 spots behind him on the list.
It is Fister’s excellent command and brilliant offspeed pitches that make him so good and he’s getting better.
The ERA takes a hit in 2012 and 2013 thanks to his defense, but the FIP and xFIP are trending down and it’s thanks to a real change in his approach.
Fister is striking out more batters and walking even fewer than his already impressive baseline. And even more than that, he’s turned himself into an elite groundballer. Only 3 qualifying starters have induced more groundballs than Fister in 2013:
I mean, just look at that. Look at it! Fister is getting pretty much the same number of line drives as always but he’s cut his flyball rate nearly in half and turned them all into groundballs. This isn’t always great for his BABIP, but it’s great for his overall run prevention. Balls on the ground can’t turn into homeruns and they don’t turn into extra base hits. Fister is striking out more batters, walking fewer, and getting everyone else to hit the ball on the ground more often. You couldn’t design a better transformation than this one.
I talked about the same type of transformation recently with Porcello, and he and Fister are in rare company. They have strikeout rates above 7 per 9, walk rates below 2 per 9, and GB% above 50% in 2013. Since GB% started being recorded in the early 2000s, the only starters to finish a year like that are Halladay, Carpenter, and Hamels. Felix, Porcello, and Fister are trying for it this year.
Essentially, what we’re looking at with Fister is another member of the Detroit School of Pitching. I looked at the team trends here, and how it’s working for Porcello (above), Sanchez, and Scherzer so far. Jeff Jones or whoever is calling the shots, has helped the Tigers starters master the changeup and optimize their breaking ball mix. Here’s how Fister has developed his approach:
The top graph separates the breaking balls and the bottom one combines them. He’s gone from slider (some people call it a cutter) to curveball and increased the use of his changeup over his fastball. This is something almost every Tigers pitcher is doing, and it’s really working for Fister.
He’s inducing less contact and based on the batted ball data it is weaker contact:
He’s 5th in BB% and he’s 10th in FIP and he’s doing it while allowing the third lowest HR/9 in baseball this year. He’s become an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out a decent number of batters while walking almost none. In fact, he’s nearly hit as many batters as he has walked, which is exceedingly rare.
Take a look at how his curveball is moving more and his changeup is separting more from the fastball, but my goodness look at the shift in movement in his fastball.
Doug Fister’s numbers point to him being one of the game’s best starters this year and over the last few seasons. He’s racking up the WAR and is striking guys out, not walking many, limiting homeruns, and adding groudballs. He’s preventing runs and doing just about everything you could ever want a starting pitcher to do and he’s doing it all with a fastball under 90 mph and has never recorded a pitch of 95 mph or higher.
Which means he doesn’t grab headlines. And if you’ve ever heard an interview with him, you know he has no interest in headlines. It’s always about his team. Which makes him endearing. And likable, and my god, he works extremely quickly on the mound. And he shatters bats, which I love.
The Mariners gave him to the Tigers for a reasonable package at the time, but since the trade those guys haven’t panned out and Doug Fister as gone from a nice back end starter to a bona fide ace. He’s my favorite starting pitcher to watch in baseball. His fastball breaks more than most people’s breaking balls and his pinpoint control and snappy pace are so refreshing. Not to mention his cat-like reflexes and great defense.
He’s basically the perfect starting pitcher. It’s about time someone noticed.
New English D 