How Was The Game? (June 23, 2013)
Bizarre.
Tigers 7, Red Sox 5
Despite the fact that starting pitching is the hallmark of the 2013 Tigers and the fact that Justin Verlander (8-5, 97 IP, 3.90 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 2.8 WAR) entered the season as one of the game’s top starters, today wasn’t really a day for such things to be on display. Verlander was inefficient and off his mark, going just 5 innings, allowing 7 hits, 4 runs, and 3 walks while only striking out 4. He wasn’t knocked around, but he was not the master of the mound that we have come to expect. A key issuse, today at least, was the lack of horizontal movement on his curveball. Take a look at this comparison between his start today and his game averages last season:
His teammates helped him out, however, as Cabrera and Fielder knocked in runs in the first, Holaday scored on a passed ball in the 2nd, and then Jhonny Peralta delivered the tying run on a bases loaded hit by pitch in the 7th. It was a funky game that included a ridiculous play by Victor Martinez and a play in which Dustin Pedroia dropped a line drive, only to failed to get a double play because Napoli tagged the base before he tagged the immobile Jackson. Then of course, there was the 8th inning fly ball that Nava caught cleanly in RF that turned into a double because…well…I’m not entirely sure. The umpires just totally missed it. Then Holaday tried to sacrifice bunt and reached on an error and Jackson walked to set up a Torii Hunter go-ahead sac fly and a Prince Fielder go-further-ahead 2 RBI single. Thanks to some solid relief work by Smyly and Benoit (who gave up 1 R), the Tigers road the strange inning to a series win and a 42-32 record overall. They’ll take Monday off before turning to Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 1.3 WAR) to start the three game set with the Angels.
The Moment(s): Victor Martinez makes a circus play at first AND Garcia doubles on a fly out.
How Was The Game? (June 22, 2013)
Nice and comfortable.
Tigers 10, Red Sox 3
Max Scherzer (11-0, 103.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 3.3 WAR) gave up two runs in the first inning and then the offense unloaded and he remembered he is now MAX SCHERZER in capital letters.
Despite the two early runs, Scherzer finished with a 7 inning, 6 hit, 2 run, 0 walk, and 6 strikeout evening, adding to his brilliant season and Cy Young campaign. Scherzer now leads all AL pitchers in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 3.3 (also in Run Support per 9 with 7.83). I mean, check this out. He threw almost nothing off the plate inside:
The bats did more than enough, as Martinez got the scoring going with a 1st inning grand slam, before Jackson drove in a run in the 4th, and the Tigers took off with 2 more in the 5th and 7th each and 1 in the 8th. After the 1st inning, it was never really in doubt as Scherzer shifted into cruise control and allowed just three additional baserunners to earn his his team the victory. The win lifts the Tigers to 41-32 and they will go for the series win against the AL leading Red Sox behind the forgotten ace, Justin Verlander (8-5, 92 IP, 3.72 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 2.7 WAR).
The Moment: Victor Martinez hits a first inning grand slam, goes 2-3 with a GS, 2B, 2 BB, 5 RBI, and 3 R
The Morning Edition (June 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Jays tie it in the 7th and win in the 9th to bail out Dickey
- Kazmir dominates the Twins
- Strasburg gives up 1 ER in 7, Ks 9, walks none to beat the Rockies
- Garza goes 8 to beat the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jacob Turner heads to AT&T (4p Eastern)
- Leake and Corbin in Arizona (7p Eastern)
- Greinke and Volquez in the who knows what will happen game (7p Eastern)
- NERD darling Kluber (7p Eastern)
- Actual darling Shelby Miller (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for Trout/Cabrera 2.0?
As I write this, the Angels are in the 4th inning, so the exact numbers might be different when you read this, but Cabrera and Trout are 1 and 2 in WAR right now. Cabrera stands at 4.8 and Trout at 4.3. Dave Cameron wrote a nice piece yesterday regarding Trout’s place among the best age 21 seasons in history after having the best age 20 season ever last year. He’s felt the dreaded regression monster, all the way from 166 wRC+ to 161 this year. We all know what Cabrera is doing:
But Trout is doing his thing as well. .315/.393/.553 plus excellent baserunning (but just average defense so far by the advanced metrics). Read Cameron’s piece for a full picture, but his K% and BB% numbers are trending in a ridiculous direction.
How Was The Game? (June 21, 2013)
Not for the purists.
Red Sox 10, Tigers 6
The box score just looks ugly. Both starters allowed 4 run innings and both teams had 10 or more hits. It was one of those traffic on the bases, always threatening games. Doug Fister (6-5, 96 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 2.7 WAR) had an ugly line, but most of the damage came on groundballs that found holes and that’s just something you live with when you have such an extreme groundball pitcher on the mound. Usually it works nicely for him. Fister finished with 3.1 inning, 11 hits, 6 runs, 1 BB, and 0 K. The offense did fine work as Pena singled in a run in the 2nd and the Tigers got 4 in the 5th on a Dirk solo shot and a Cabrera 3 run HR. The bullpen surrendered 4 additional runs, but two of which came without the benefit of a hit and one came on a Garcia error, so you can’t really blame them. The Tigers will try to secure no worse than a split behind Max Scherzer (10-0, 96.1 IP, 3.08 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 3.1 WAR) on Saturday, who is making a case to start the All-Star game.
The Moment: Cabrera launches a 3 run HR.
Doug Fister’s Quiet Brilliance
Doug Fister is an ace. He is. There’s no getting around it. It wasn’t supposed to be like this, but here we are. Twenty two months after the Mariners sent him to the Tigers for a package of players that are either no longer in their organization or are Charlie Furbush and Chance Ruffin, Doug Fister has established himself as one of baseball’s best starting pitchers.
This year, he currently ranks 9th in WAR with 2.8 and 5 of the guys above him on the list have made at least one more start than he has. He takes the mound tonight and could reasonably push himself into the top five range. It’s not just this year, it’s been every year. Last year he missed a quarter of the season with an oblique injury and still ranked 27th in WAR. Only Medlen and Strasburg out-pitched him in fewer innings.
Since the start of 2011, only five starting pitchers have a higher WAR. Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Felix, Hernandez, and CC Sabathia. That’s it. That’s the whole list. Fister missed a quarter of the season in 2012 and since the beginning of 2011 only five pitchers have been better and they all have at least 70 more innings in that span.
Don’t get me wrong, the number of innings you pitch matters a great deal, but it’s important to note. Doug Fister, despite missing time, is holding his own with the best handful of starters in MLB. How is he doing it?
Fister doesn’t throw hard. His fastball averages 88-89 mph. He does it with command, movement, and pitch selection and he does that better than anyone else. Jered Weaver is the only other starting pitcher in the top 25 in WAR over the last 3 seasons to average a fastball under 90 mph and Weaver is 9 spots behind him on the list.
It is Fister’s excellent command and brilliant offspeed pitches that make him so good and he’s getting better.
The ERA takes a hit in 2012 and 2013 thanks to his defense, but the FIP and xFIP are trending down and it’s thanks to a real change in his approach.
Fister is striking out more batters and walking even fewer than his already impressive baseline. And even more than that, he’s turned himself into an elite groundballer. Only 3 qualifying starters have induced more groundballs than Fister in 2013:
I mean, just look at that. Look at it! Fister is getting pretty much the same number of line drives as always but he’s cut his flyball rate nearly in half and turned them all into groundballs. This isn’t always great for his BABIP, but it’s great for his overall run prevention. Balls on the ground can’t turn into homeruns and they don’t turn into extra base hits. Fister is striking out more batters, walking fewer, and getting everyone else to hit the ball on the ground more often. You couldn’t design a better transformation than this one.
I talked about the same type of transformation recently with Porcello, and he and Fister are in rare company. They have strikeout rates above 7 per 9, walk rates below 2 per 9, and GB% above 50% in 2013. Since GB% started being recorded in the early 2000s, the only starters to finish a year like that are Halladay, Carpenter, and Hamels. Felix, Porcello, and Fister are trying for it this year.
Essentially, what we’re looking at with Fister is another member of the Detroit School of Pitching. I looked at the team trends here, and how it’s working for Porcello (above), Sanchez, and Scherzer so far. Jeff Jones or whoever is calling the shots, has helped the Tigers starters master the changeup and optimize their breaking ball mix. Here’s how Fister has developed his approach:
The top graph separates the breaking balls and the bottom one combines them. He’s gone from slider (some people call it a cutter) to curveball and increased the use of his changeup over his fastball. This is something almost every Tigers pitcher is doing, and it’s really working for Fister.
He’s inducing less contact and based on the batted ball data it is weaker contact:
He’s 5th in BB% and he’s 10th in FIP and he’s doing it while allowing the third lowest HR/9 in baseball this year. He’s become an extreme groundball pitcher who strikes out a decent number of batters while walking almost none. In fact, he’s nearly hit as many batters as he has walked, which is exceedingly rare.
Take a look at how his curveball is moving more and his changeup is separting more from the fastball, but my goodness look at the shift in movement in his fastball.
Doug Fister’s numbers point to him being one of the game’s best starters this year and over the last few seasons. He’s racking up the WAR and is striking guys out, not walking many, limiting homeruns, and adding groudballs. He’s preventing runs and doing just about everything you could ever want a starting pitcher to do and he’s doing it all with a fastball under 90 mph and has never recorded a pitch of 95 mph or higher.
Which means he doesn’t grab headlines. And if you’ve ever heard an interview with him, you know he has no interest in headlines. It’s always about his team. Which makes him endearing. And likable, and my god, he works extremely quickly on the mound. And he shatters bats, which I love.
The Mariners gave him to the Tigers for a reasonable package at the time, but since the trade those guys haven’t panned out and Doug Fister as gone from a nice back end starter to a bona fide ace. He’s my favorite starting pitcher to watch in baseball. His fastball breaks more than most people’s breaking balls and his pinpoint control and snappy pace are so refreshing. Not to mention his cat-like reflexes and great defense.
He’s basically the perfect starting pitcher. It’s about time someone noticed.
New English D Audio (Episode 2): Bullpen, Castellanos, and Jhonny Peralta’s Value
On this edition of New English D Audio I discuss how the Tigers should handle the bullpen and Jose Valverde, Nick Castellanos’ breakout at Triple A, and how we should value Jhonny Peralta given his big offensive season and somewhat controversial defense. The conversation features material regarding how one can invent a closer, the great season of Darin Downs, Nick Castellanos’ big season, and various statistics surround offensive value such as wRC+, wRAA, and wOBA in addition to WAR.
Please feel free to send questions or comments to NewEnglishD@gmail.com or to me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44.
Download (Approx 22 mins)
How Was The Game? (June 20, 2013)
Not a bad ending.
Tigers 4, Red Sox 3
The buzz around the Tigers today was about the bullpen situation, but despite Leyland giving Coke the ball when it should have gone to Smyly, it wasn’t the Tigers bullpen that would be the story. Jose Alvarez (1-0, 11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 0.1 WAR) did solid work across 5 innings of 2 run baseball against a very strong offense and Putkonen, Coke, and Smyly combined to allow just one additional run. The bats were unable to get more than two runs in the first 8 innings, however, as a Torii Hunter 2 run single was the only scoring the Tigers could muster against Lackey and company until Martinez walked to start the 9th inning against Bailey and then Jhonny Peralta stepped to the plate and lined a slider into the Tigers bullpen to end the game. I know it doesn’t matter, but I said to my wife before the inning started that Martinez was going to walk and Jhonny was going to walk off. It felt good as the Tigers delivered their first walk off win of the season. If you’re going to lose one in this series, it certainly should be the Alvarez game but the Tigers survived it and can now turn to Fister, Scherzer, and Verlander the rest of the way, who are among the best dozen starting pitchers in baseball so far this season. It will be Doug Fister (6-4, 92.2 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 2.8 WAR) who will get the ball Friday night at Comerica Park.
The Moment: Jhonny Perlata walks off into the Tigers bullpen.
Yes, You Can Invent a Closer
I’ve written extensively on bullpen usage and the closer role. To catch you up, here are the three big pieces:
I encourage you all to read those piece to catch up, but I’m going to move forward even if you haven’t. I’m going to make a claim and then seek to back it up with real evidence. The claim is this:
Closer experience doesn’t matter. If you put a good reliever into the closer role, he will succeed.
I would prefer managers not use closers at all (see link #3 above), but let’s say managers want to have a closer who comes in during save situations for a single inning. If that is the case, I am here to tell you that you do not need closer experience to be a closer.
I took the 30 pitchers with the most save opportunities from 2012 to test this theory. The group average was 35 save chances from 2012 and none had fewer than 20. Only the Athletics had two players on the list who played for only one team and four players on the list played for two or more teams in 2012. Combined, they averaged 30.3 saves and 910 saves in total.
These are 30 undisputed closers. The took on the closer role in 2012 and accumulated saves. Jim Leyland, who is my target audience right now, would look at their save totals and save percentage and consider them closers.
You with me so far? Good.
Only 10 of them had more than 17 save opportunities in 2011. Only a third of 2012’s best closers would have made the list from 2011. Certainly there were injuries, but Joe Nathan is the only one who was a legitimate closer before 2011 other than Rafael Soriano, who backed up Mariano Rivera in 2011. Maybe I’ll give you Jonathan Broxton, but he had lost his closer tag, so we’ll see. Despite all of this, at most we could say that half of 2012’s best closers had closer experience. Just half.
Half of them had fewer than 10 save chances in 2011 and five had zero save chances in 2011. Half of the best closers of 2012 weren’t even closers the year before.
I’ll cut the group in half and say anyone under 10 save chances in 2011 is non-proven and anyone over 10 chances is proven. I’m being generous.
The non-proven closers averaged 27 saves in 2012 and the provens averaged 33. But they averaged an 87 and 86% save percentage, respectively. The non-proven closers averaged 7 fewer opportunities in 2012, but they converted essentially the same percentage as the proven closers.
These are facts. I’ll go a step further. The five closers who had zero save chances in 2011 converted 84% of their save chance in 2012. There is literally no discernible difference between pitchers with closing experience as it pertains to saves. None. None. None.
It gets better. The proven closers had an ERA of 3.11 in 2012. The non-proven closers had an ERA of 2.73.
So basically, this is the argument I’m making. Closing experience does not predict future success in that role. The 30 best closers from 2012 prove that pretty nicely. The 15 proven guys were no more successful at converting saves and had a worse ERA than the non-proven closers. If anything the unproven closers pitched better.
Jim Leyland and the Tigers have placed an extremely high value on closing experience. They signed a reliever who was past his ability to pitch in MLB because he had saved games before and they won’t turn to better pitchers because they “can’t close.” Leyland has been clear on this. I have never heard a clear explanation about what makes the 9th inning different, but I can tell you very clearly that pitchers have been placed in the closer’s role as recently as last season and had absolutely no problem handling it.
No problem at all. So while I don’t advocate using a closer at all, if managers insist on defined roles with specific limits can we at least accept the fact that you can put anyone who is reasonable competent into the closer’s role?
Leyland doesn’t want to use Smyly or Benoit in the closer’s role and has repeated said the “9th inning is a little bit different,” but there is just no evidence that is true.
You can create a closer by putting a good reliever into the role. The Tigers have good relievers and should just put one of them into the role if Leyland insists on having a closer. It really is that simple. You can invent a closer. Fifteen teams did it last season.
I’ve included an Excel File (Closers) with the the data I used. The stats to the right of the yellow divider are from 2012 and the left side is from 2011.
Nick Castellanos is Forcing the Issue
I’m the last person in the world you’ll hear clamoring for the Tigers to make roster moves to replace players who are having a bad two weeks and I’m never someone who advocates rushing prospects because you have a need at the major league level. This is not that kind of post.
In fact, it’s the opposite. Andy Dirks is slumping at the plate, although his defense has been very good, but Matt Tuiasosopo is more than capable of stepping in to be the Tigers everyday left fielder for now. The Tigers had the league’s best offense entering the day (112 wRC+) and we all know they have the best pitching staff in baseball quite comfortably. I’m not worried about the Tigers one bit. They are a great team who will win the Central, barring significant injuries, quite easily.
But Nick Castellanos, the Tigers top prospect, is sitting in AAA Toledo and he’s starting to make some noise. A lot of it actually. No player under 24 had a higher wRC+ than Castellanos in AAA except for the recently promoted super-prospect Wil Myers. Nick is now the best young hitter at his level and he may be outgrowing it.
The book on Castellanos is a great hit tool with the expectation that the power will develop. His approach has needed work and his defense is still coming along. The club moved him to the OF after the Fielder signing, but he was originally a 3B. He’s 21 years old, in Triple A, and he’s forcing the issue.
Since I no longer live in Toledo, I haven’t seen Castellanos play defense, but I haven’t heard any horror stories, even if he isn’t great. But I can follow the numbers he’s putting up at the plate from 600 miles away and it’s starting to get good.
Here is how Castellanos’ numbers have looked over the course of the season (OBP, SLG, K%, and BB% at the end of each game):
His OBP is now over .350 and his SLG is up near .500 and both numbers have been trending upward. He’s mashing lefties (1.016 OPS) and isn’t having trouble with righties either (.805 OPS). The walks are way up from last year and the strikeouts have come down. And these numbers are coming from one of the lowest BABIP’s of his career (.332 entering Wednesday) against the best competition he’s ever faced.
In half a season at Triple A, he’s put up big numbers and the biggest of those are coming more recently. The plate discipline appears to be getting better and the power is coming. I’m sure he could benefit from more seasoning and his defense probably still needs work, but it’s getting close to that time.
The Tigers don’t need him, but he’s getting close to the point where it might be time for him to come up anyway. You shouldn’t rush a prospect because your team needs him, but you also shouldn’t stash him in the minors just because you don’t. The Tigers shouldn’t be worried about his service time when they’re in their championship window. There are times to worry about an arbitration clock and there are times to play your best 25. This is the latter.
I’m not a professional scout and won’t pretend to be and I haven’t seen Castellanos live this year, but if I’m following the numbers it’s starting to look like he’s ready. This is the Tigers’ blue chip, top prospect. The Tigers are built to win now with or without him, but if he’s ready, then it’s time to call him up.
The timetable has always been late 2013 for Nick and he’s walking around Fifth Third Field in Toledo like he won’t be there much longer. I’m not saying it should be tomorrow or even this month, but I think it’s time for Nick to come north.
Two years ago, people wanted to call him up to play 2B because the Tigers didn’t have a 2B. That was silly because he wasn’t ready and he wasn’t a 2B. But it’s two years later I’m starting to think he’s ready to hit big league pitching and I’m starting to wonder if he’s one of the best OF bats the Tigers have to offer.
I think we’ll see Tuiasosopo get a few more at bats in the next couple weeks and if he hits, maybe the Tigers let Nick work on his glove. But if Tuiasosopo isn’t mashing the ball and Castellanos stays hot, our deadline deal might be with the Toledo Mud Hens, when we recall a potential franchise cornerstone.
How Was The Game? (June 19, 2013)
An ambush.
Orioles 13, Tigers 3
Everything went reasonably well for the Tigers today except the top half of the 4th inning in which the Orioles hit Rick Porcello (4-4, 76 IP, 4.74 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.2 WAR) hard and then, of course, the 9th inning. It was a peculiar 4th inning given that Porcello was dominant in the other 5 innings, 3 of which came before and 2 of which came after. He finished with 6 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 0 walks, and 4 K, but all six runs and six of the nine hits happened in the span of 11 batters before he got himself straightened out. I’m not concerned given how well he’s performed this season with career best 7.46 K/9, 1.54 BB/9, 3.66 FIP, and 2.98 xFIP even after today’s game. The offense made some noise, but only turned it into 3 runs, two of which came on a Tuiasosopo pinch hit double before the bullpen allowed 3 runs to give the Orioles sufficient cushion who then put up a 4 spot on Valverde in the 9th, who simply cannot get MLB hitters out at this point and needs to be released before Jim Leyland can use him again. The Tigers dropped their second series of the season to the Orioles, but still stand at 39-31 on the season, and thankfully never have to play the Orioles again this season. I say that because MLB doesn’t allow people in North Carolina (where I live) to watch the Baltimore Orioles* under any circumstances, so I’ve spend the last three days listening on the radio like a caveman. Things will get back to normal as the Red Sox come to town for four starting Thursday with Jose Alvarez (1-0 6 IP, 1.50 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 0.1 WAR) making his second start of the year in place of Sanchez.
The Moment: Tuiasosopo doubles in a pair to make it a game.
*Or the Washington Nationals
New English D 