Dynamic Standings Projection (May 15, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the May 14 games.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bailey goes the distances, punches out 10 Marlins in 6-2 win
- McCutchen walks off in 12
- Kershaw dominates the Nationals, but comes one out shy of the CGSO
- Felix outduels CC, but the Mariners bullpen gives it back as they lose to the Yanks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lester draws Price at the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller faces the Mets (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to action (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will Greinke be on his game after missing a month?
I miss Brandon Inge and he is Mr. Utility this year. Entering Tuesday, he has played 2.1 innings at 1B, 58.2 innings at 2B, 18 innings at 3B, and 13 innings in RF. Tuesday, he played SS. That appearance at short now completes his collection of positions in his MLB career. Brandon Inge has done everything but pitch at the MLB level (which he did in college). Love that guy. He’s also hitting .273/.304/.318 in 47 PA as I write this. That’s nothing special, but it’s a very nice utility player. I’ll always be rooting for him.
The Morning Edition (May 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Hicks hits 2 HR and robs one for good measure as Twins beat the White Sox
- Masterson delivers a CGSO as the Tribe split a DH with the Yanks
- Upton mashes in his return to Arizona
- Harper injured as the Nats roll
What I’m Watching Today:
- Felix and CC face off in NY (7p Eastern)
- Matt Moore welcomes the Red Sox to the Trop (7p Eastern)
- Corbin tries to quiet the Braves in Arizona (930p Eastern)
- Kershaw gets the Nats in LA (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How do you think Dbacks fans liked Upton’s homecoming?
Here are the four best teams by wRC+ as of 12:19am (May 14): Indians, Tigers, Red Sox, Rays. The Tigers certainly fit, but I don’t know how many people would have said the Indians, Sox, and Rays were top level offenses when the seasons started. The Marlins and White Sox are the worst, but that Nationals are 28th, which is exactly how we all saw it six weeks ago. I’m a big fan of the Anthony Rizzo extension because I think he’s going to be a star and he’s about to be paid like less than $7 million AAV during his prime. In the last calendar year, he’s played 124 games in the big leagues and has 24 HR and a .283/.345/.485 line good for 124 wRC+. Among players below Rizzo by wRC+ over the last year are: A-Gon, Trumbo, Adam Jones, and Carlos Gonzalez. Rizzo is good and now he is cheap.
The Morning Edition (May 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Sale makes a run at perfection, but loses it in the 7th on a Trout single
- The bullpen spoils McCarthy’s gem as the Dbacks fall to the Phils in 10
- Lincecum dominates the Braves over 7 innings, wins 5-1
- De La Rosa leads the Rockies to a win to avoid the sweep
- After Gio allows no runs, the bullpen gives it away to the Cubs
- Harvey delivers a pedestrian 7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K outing as the bullpen coughs it up for the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Indians and Yankees play a REAL doubleheader in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Under the radar Burnett faces the Brewers (7p Eastern)
- Jordan Zimmermann takes the Nats to LA to face Beckett and the Dodgers (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which AL 3B is your early season standout, Longoria, Machado, or Cabrera?
The top 3 position players in the AL by Wins Above Replacement (WAR) are all third basemen; Evan Longoria (2.5), Manny Machado (2.1), and Miguel Cabrera (2.1). Cabrera leads the way with 186 wRC+ while Longoria (180 wRC+) is close behind with Machado (141 wRC+) trailing despite a very strong year at the plate. Longoria separates himself from Cabrera with better defense and Machado gets into the conversation with defense above and beyond what Longoria has brought to the table so far. This debate is purely an academic exercise because they are all fantastic in slightly different ways. Cabrera certainly is the most reliable offensive minded standout of the bunch, while Longoria is a brilliant hitter with a great glove who can’t always be counted on to stay healthy. Machado is great for his age, but remains young and slightly unproven. For a 20 year old, Machado is great, as seen in Dave Cameron’s recent Fangraphs post, but I’d like to see him demonstrate a little better plate discipline in the big leagues before I’m ready to put him in the company of Cabrera and Longoria. He’s not Trout or Harper as a 20 year old, but he’s a very good player for his age and including him in this conversation is compliment enough for now.
The Morning Edition (May 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright nearly no-hits the Rockies, settles for a CGSO
- The bullpen nearly blows Darvish’s W in Houston
- Longoria bails out Hellickson with a walk off HR against the Padres
- Stasburg allows 4 unearned runs, but loses anyway to the Cubs
- Buehrle outduels Buchholz as Lind’s HR saves the day
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Harvey against the Pirates (1p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Santana match up in KC (2p Eastern)
- Wilson and Sale try to buoy struggling teams on Sunday Night Baseball (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Cardinals or Tigers staff, which is better?
If you evaluate the above question by WAR, it’s the Tiger easily. They’re first in baseball at 9.5 (11p Eastern Saturday), more than 2 WAR ahead of second place. The Cardinals are 5th, a full four wins back. Yet the Cards ERA is a sparkling 2.92 while the Tigers are at 3.45. If you look at FIP, the Tigers are ahead 2.58 to 3.06. This is a good lesson in run prevention and expected run prevention. The Tigers out pitch the Cardinals in two of three areas in which the pitcher has control; strikeouts and homeruns. What’s funny is that the Cardinals don’t have a much better defense. It appears that they are getting a little better sequencing than the Tigers right now. Additionally, the Tigers starters have 7.5 to the Cardinals 5.6 WAR – so the Cardinals are weighed down by a terrible bullpen. They are 1 and 2 in SP WAR and 3 and 27th in reliever WAR. It’s a fun debate however you wish to slice it and I wouldn’t mind having either starting staff, though I’m partial to the Tigers.
The Nine Players I Wish I Had Been Alive to See
In baseball more than other sports, we are captivated by history. The great players who came before us are mythical figures. Bart Starr is pretty much just a football player, but Babe Ruth is something else entirely. We pass down stories to our children of the players we got to see and marvel at how certain players seemed to dominate their era.
Below is a list, entirely my own and entirely subjective, of players I wish I had been alive to see. Anyone who played after 1990 is ineligible and the qualifications are not necessarily based on anything other than who I find to be the exciting and tantalizing figures whom I was unable to see.
9. Brooks Robinson (35th All-Time in position player WAR)
Advanced defensive statistics aren’t particularly reliable before the last several seasons of in depth video analysis, but plenty of baseball statisticians have worked through the data of yesteryear to provide a decent approximation. What those metrics tell us is that Brooks Robinson was 5% more valuable on defense than the second best defender in baseball history. He was a slightly above average hitter, but a preposterously impressive defender. Any old-school eyeball influenced observer would tell you the same. Robinson is quite possibly the best glove man to ever put on a pair of cleats.
8. Jackie Robinson (133rd All-Time in position player WAR)
Jackie is of no relation to Brooks, but that doesn’t make him less interesting. Robinson’s story isn’t one that requires much explanation. He broke baseball’s color barrier and was both a very good player and a man who could restrain his emotions and conduct himself with grace, such that he may be one of the most influential figures of the 20th century. A career 135 wRC+ doesn’t hurt either.
7. Ted Williams (8th All-Time in position player WAR)
Williams’ modest personal goal was to be the greatest hitter whoever lived. Perhaps the only person who can contend for that title with Williams is Babe Ruth. Williams career 188 wRC+ is 2nd only to Ruth and has the highest career OBP in baseball history and is second in slugging percentage to the same. It’s hard to imagine a more impressive plate appearance than what Ted Williams could offer in his prime.
6. Willie Mays (4th All-Time in position player WAR)
Many consider Mays to be the greatest player to ever put on a uniform and I won’t argue with anyone who thinks so. He was a superb defender in centerfield (7th best defender in history according to advanced metrics) and hit a measly 660 homeruns while posting a 154 wRC+. Maybe I wouldn’t say he was best player to ever live, but I couldn’t name too many who’d be in that conversation along with him.
5. Roberto Clemente (34th All-Time in position player WAR)
Clemente’s career was also cut short like Koufax’s, but his was cut short tragically while on an aid mission. He was a fine hitter (career 129 wRC+), but he is on this list for his defense, especially his arm. It was a magic arm. One of the best two of all time and the other contender is two spots below him on this list. Clemente is 5th all time by advanced defensive metrics and trails just one outfielder (Andruw Jones). I’d pay a good amount of money to watch him stand at the warning track and throw baseball’s to third base.
4. Sandy Koufax (62nd All-Time in pitcher WAR)
Now you may think that the only pitcher on this list should be higher on the all time WAR list than 62nd, but Koufax’s low total is the function of a short career and not a brilliant prime. The Dodger lefty is the pitcher most deserving of a spot on this list because 1) many of the game’s best arms pitched during my lifetime and 2) he’s among a small number of Jewish players to truly excel in sports. Among pitchers who were predominantly starters who qualify, he’s 9th all-time in K/9 and he’s at the top of that list if you restrict it to players whose careers ended before 1990. He is the strikeout king of pitchers before my time. He had three 9.8+ WAR seasons. The only other pitcher who can make that claim was Silver King who played in the 1880s! He was awesome.
3. Al Kaline (25th All-Time in position player WAR)
Mr. Tiger gets extra points for being the greatest Tiger to ever live (IMO, take that Cobb!) and being my father’s favorite player growing up. But he’s also everything I love in a player. A fine hitter (134 wRC+) with good plate discipline (11.0% BB rate) and an excellent defender with a brilliant arm. Kaline ranks as the 19th best defensive player ever and has an arm at which Tigers fans still marvel. He used to throw behind runners rounding first base and get them out. I’ve never seen that happen in my years of watching baseball. Additionally, Kaline is an exemplary citizen who has literally worked for just one company since he graduate high school: the Detroit Tigers. Takes “Always a Tiger” to a new level.
2. Joe DiMaggio (33rd All-Time in position player WAR)
DiMaggio was a great player, no question, and a great hitter (career 152 wRC+), but his reason for being on this list is simple. He owns the most impressive record in sports history. I’m very fond of Ripkin’s games played streak, but DiMaggio’s 56 game hit streak is quite simply the pinnacle of human athletic achievement. Hitting a baseball is widely regarded as the most difficult single task in sports and DiMaggio got a base hit or more in 56 consecutive games, when most players rarely make it 10. Yet what makes this record so spectacular is that it is so far ahead of its challengers. It’s 27% longer than the second longest streak ever. 27%! Let me put it this way, Hank Aaron’s 755 homeruns rank second most all time. In order to be 27% better than that, Bonds would have had to hit 959 homeruns. DiMaggio’s accomplishment is without equals.
1. Stan Musial (10th All-Time in position player WAR)
Stan Musial was a brilliant hitter and a brilliant citizen. Ruth, Hornsby, Williams, and Gehrig are the only players in history to exceed Musial in average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. That’s the whole list. He was a solid defender and was one of the nicest men to ever play professional sports. During his career, hitters struck out 11% of the time. He struck out 5.5% of the time. Relative to league average, he’d be a 10% type strikeout guy today who walked 20% of the time. There is no one even close to that type of ratio. Not even a little. That level of plate discipline belongs on Mount Rushmore.
Who are on your wish you had seem them list?
The Morning Edition (May 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Jon Lester delivers a 1 hit CGSO as the Sox beat the Jays 5-0
- Alex Cobb strikes out 13 Padres in 4.2 inning, including 4 in one inning…an inning in which he allowed a run on 2 SB and a balk…and fails to pitch deep enough to win
- Miller is brilliant again against the Rockies, retiring 27 straight after allowing a leadoff hit (CG, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13K)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz welcomes the Blue Jays to Fenway (130p Eastern)
- Wainwright gets a challenge from the Rockies (2p Eastern)
- Strasburg gets the Cubs offense (4p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Astros (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee starts in the desert (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Which of the six Appointment Television starters who pitch today will you be watching?
Often in this space, I highlight a player who is performing well. Today, who is performing poorly? On the pitching side of things, the winner is Mark Buehrle who owns a -0.5 WAR and 7.02 ERA and 6.34 FIP. His strikeout and walk rates are about on par with career norms, but he’s getting fewer groundballs and allowing an insane amount of homeruns. The homerun rate will regress, but a low strikeout control type guy like Buehrle has a pretty small margin for error and his number can balloon quickly. The league’s worst position player, just barely, is Jeff Keppinger who is worth -1.0 WAR and boasts and impressive .195/.191/.212 line in 27 games, good for a -3 wRC+. This means a couple things. First, he’s taken zero walks, so his sacrifice flies make his OBP lower than his batting average and he is 103% worse at the plate right now than league average. Just to give you an entire of what that indicates, the worst offensive season since WWII belongs to Billy Hunter and his 29 wRC+ for the St. Louis Browns. Not that he won’t pick up a little, but if Keppinger keeps this up, (he’ll get benched) he’ll have the worst season relative to league average by 32% since 1946. Impressive.
The Morning Edition (May 10, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Baxter hits a pinch hit walk off single to lift the Mets over the Pirates
- Scott Kazmir, that Scott Kazmir, struck out 10 and walked none in 6 innings to beat the A’s
- Price pitches well, Dickey pitches well enough as the Rays get a walk off walk in St. Pete
What I’m Watching Today:
- Fast starter Alex Cobb gets the Padres at home (7p Eastern)
- Jon Lester takes the hill against the Jays (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller welcomes the Rockies to St. Louis (8p Eastern)
- Hudson and Cain compete in a groundball off in San Fran (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will Greinke’s rehab start go?
Here comes Evan Longoria! For many years, I’ve been saying he’s one of the best players in the sport, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. Fingers crossed, he’s having a great season and if he keeps himself in the lineup, he might sniff out his first MVP award (in one of the few years I didn’t predict he’d win). Right now, he’s hitting .331/.397/.600, good for a 176 wRC+. He’s not quite outhitting Cabrera (186 wRC+), but he’s in the ballpark and outfielding him handily. At this moment, he leads AL position players in Wins Above Replacement with 2.3 and trails only Carlos Gomez (!) for the major league lead.
The Morning Edition (May 9, 2013)
From Last Night:
- A’s lose 4-3 to the Indians after umpires fail to correctly overturn a double that should have gone for a homerun in the 9th
- Vernon Wells homers as the Yanks beat the Rockies, but also plays third base! (?!)
- Twins and Red Sox play football at Fenway and the Twins win by a touchdown, 15-8, as Ortiz’s streak is snapped
- Felix outduels Burnett for a 2-1 win at PNC
- Kershaw gives up 1 ER in 7 innings, but doesn’t get the necessary offense to win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Bartolo Colon faces Scott Kazmir in what I can only assume is a game from 2005 (12p Eastern)
- Dickey and Price face off in a battle of underperforming reigning Cy’s (7p Eastern)
- Hamels and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How will the league handle the incorrect upheld double in Cleveland?
I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need for more replay in MLB, but the umpiring crew in Cleveland on Wednesday couldn’t even use the replay they have properly. It’s really hard to imagine what they saw that didn’t result in a homerun, and if they didn’t have the right angle to overturn the call, why didn’t they have that angle? But the more exciting news from Wednesday was Vernon Wells playing 3B for the Yankees. He had played 1592 games in his career entering the day and none of them had been anywhere but the outfield or designated hitter. That ended as he played 3B in the 9th inning Wednesday. I don’t have the resources to look this up at the moment, but I’m very interested in players who play only one inning at a position in their career like Wells did tonight that was clearly out of strange necessity. Who remembers when Pudge Rodriguez played 2 innings at 2B back in 2006?! He caught a popup in his only chance.
The Greg Maddux Way: A Simple Statistic
The great Greg Maddux (355-227, 3.16 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 114.3 WAR) once said the key to pitching is throwing a ball when the batter is swinging and throwing a strike when the batter is taking. That’s a pretty good general rule, but an astute observer would certainly recognize that a pitcher isn’t really equipped to predict such a thing terribly well.
But this did get me thinking, is there something to this idea despite other intervening reasons that confound it? Certainly, if you have a crazy slider that no one can hit, it doesn’t really matter where you throw it. Or a fastball that the hitter can’t handle. It’s also not like where you choose to throw the pitch and if the hitter swings are independent of each other.
So this is an exercise, plain and simple. The Maddux idea is a good one in principle, but it’s not that simple. We know that, he knows that, let’s just look into it for fun.
I drew from the 2012 season and looked at qualified pitchers (n = 88). I developed a simple statistics to quantify how Maddux-y they pitched.
mPercentage = (O-Swing% – League Average O-Swing%) + (-1)*(Z-Swing%-League Average Z-Swing%)
O-Swing% is the percent of the time a pitcher induced the opposing hitter to swing at a pitch he threw outside the zone and Z-Swing% is the same statistic for pitches inside the zone. The -1 is included so that both Maddux attributes are positive and can be added together without converging toward zero.
The results were pretty surprising because some pitchers at the top of the list are awesome and some are average and some are terrible. There isn’t a ton of correlation between this statistic and actual production. The two league leaders in 2012 mPercentage are Joe Blanton and Chris Sale. Cliff Lee is 4th, which sounds right, but Verlander is 42nd.
If you take a wider angle and regress ERA or FIP on mPercentage, you find that on average a 1% increase (i.e. 5% to 6%) decreases your ERA or FIP by 0.06 runs, which is not very much at all. mPercentage is statistically significant in both models, but not substantively significant at all. (The R squared is less than .11 in both.)
So what this tells us is that the Maddux Method doesn’t really exist in practice. Pitchers who induce swings on balls and takes on strikes are no more successful than those who do not. However, there is a obviously a two-way street at play here like I mentioned earlier. The Maddux Method works perfectly in theory, but we have an observation issue given that Justin Verlander’s strikes are much harder to hit than Joe Blanton’s, so he can throw more of them.
I like the Maddux philosophy of pitching, but it isn’t enough. You also need to have good stuff.
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