Appointment Television: Baseball’s Must Watch Starting Pitchers (August 2013 Update)
In May, I rolled out our list of Appointment Television starting pitchers, or pitchers who were worth planning your baseball viewing (and life) schedule around. Today, as I did in June and July, I’d like to update that list and talk about the changes. The original list can be found here, which also includes a little more detail on the origin of the project. Recall that the order is tiered into stable and non stable (italics), but each ranking is meaningless.
Here is the gist from the original:
The methodology is simple but also subjective. To be classified as Appointment TV you have to have a high likelihood of pitching a gem. There is no set definition of gem or likelihood, but the idea is that to make this list, you have to be likely enough to throw a game worth clearing your schedule for. I think a number of pitchers qualify. Most are high strikeout guys, but that isn’t a requirement. If you are good enough to dominate on a semi-regular basis you’re in. If on your day to pitch, I make sure I’m aware of the start time so that I can check in, you’re Appointment TV.
This is a rolling list and pitchers will be added and subtracted throughout the season and it will be updated as necessary. There is no order other than that pitchers lower on the list in italics are recent additions, so if you’re wondering if Jordan Zimmermann really qualifies, know that he’s earned his way onto the list in his last few starts. Remember, this is a list of pitchers who on this date are can’t miss TV. These are not necessarily the best pitchers and plenty of good pitchers aren’t on the list.
Appointment Television Starting Pitchers:
- Justin Verlander
- Adam Wainwright
- Clayton Kershaw
- Felix Hernandez
- Yu Darvish
- Matt Harvey
- Cliff Lee
- Max Scherzer
- Anibal Sanchez
- Stephen Strasburg
- Chris Sale
- Doug Fister
- Jose Fernandez
- David Price
- Shelby Miller
- Mat Latos
- Derek Holland
- Jordan Zimmerman
- Francisco Liriano
- Homer Bailey
- Partrick Corbin
- Hiroki Kuroda
Clay Buchholz(On the DL, no return set)
Let’s talk about the changes. First of all, Jose Fernandez made the jump from the borderline region into the stable region because he continues to impress during his rookie season. Jordan Zimmernmann falls into the fringe ranks because while he is still pitching well, he hasn’t been turning in dominating, turn the game on and notice performances.
Everyone else on the list is in the same spot and the remaining changes are those who have joined the party. Francisco Liriano is impressing in Pittsburgh over his 95 IP this season. If he remains healthy, he should hold his spot on the list. Price is an obvious addition to the list. He’s been dominant since coming off the DL and was one of the top pitchers in the game last season. He’s now healthy and even more efficient than before.
Bailey, Corbin, and Kuroda are all having very nice seasons and have earned their way onto the list. They don’t make me turn my head quite as much as some others, but they have now pitched their way to the point where I will always be aware when they are on the mound.
Feel free to make a case for other starting pitchers who are must watch guys and we’ll consider adding them to the list.
The Morning Edition (August 2, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix goes 7 innings, allowed 1 run and leaves with a 7-1 lead. The Mariners gave up 1 in the 8th and 6 in the 9th to fall to the Red Sox.
- Darvish strikes out 14 batters, walks none, in 7 shutout innings
- The Cardinals pummel the Pirates to salvage one of five in Pittsburgh
- Hamels throws 8 shutout innings, Papelbon blows it
- Norris is solid against his old club
- Indians and Royals keep their winning streaks going as Raburn hits 2 HR
- 11 K for Teheran as the Braves beat the Rockies
What I’m Watching Today:
- Jose Fernandez looks to slow the Tribe (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner faces Archer (7p Eastern)
- Shelby Miller leads the Cards into Cinci (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann tries to get back on track against the Crew (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who do you like in the NL Central?
The Pirates, Cardinals, and Reds are all 60+ win teams and have clear paths to the playoffs. The Cardinals have the lowest floor, the Pirates are playing well, and the Reds are probably the most talented. But Cards don’t have Yadi, the Pirates are playing above their heads, and the Reds have Dusty holding them back. They’re all good teams and will likely all make it at least until the play-in game. My money is on the Cardinals, but it’s going to be fun.
MLB Power Rankings August 2013
Before the season began, I provided you with how I thought the season would play out in standings form and in power rankings form (30-21, 20-11, 10-1). Each week, I’ve updated the standings projection based on the games from the previous week, and at the beginning of every month, have synthesized that into league-wide power rankings. What follows are my MLB Power Rankings for August 2013. (May, June, and July)
The idea is simple. I ranked the teams at the beginning of the season based on how well I thought they would perform over the entire year. I am doing the same thing here, but I just have new information to include based on what I’ve seen so far. Note that when discussing offensive rankings I will be using wRC+ (what’s wRC+?) and when discussing pitching rankings I will use wins above replacement (what’s WAR?).
30. Houston Astros (July Rank: 29)
I’ve reserved this spot for the Marlins for the last two months, but I have to make a change in August because no other club besides the Astros is so bad offensively, defensively, and on the mound. The Astros are building correctly for the future and are a well-run organization, but there is no worse MLB product on the field right now. They are 27th in hitting, 29th in defense, and 30th in pitching. Right now, their entire roster has been worth less than 1 win above replacement. For some context, Andy Dirks has been worth 1.1 WAR by himself in 2013.
29. Miami Marlins (30)
The Marlins are terrible. They have the league’s worst offense by a massive margin and only have an average pitching staff led by exciting young arms like Jose Fernandez, Jacob Turner, and Nathan Eovaldi. The Marlins are joke of an organization, but there are some reasons to watch.
28. Chicago White Sox (28)
The White Sox are almost as bad offensively as the Marlins and as a result they are wasting the league’s 3rd best pitching staff. Normally, I’d give more weight to the pitching staff in these rankings, but the offensive is so terrible that good pitching doesn’t even help. The Sox are 40-65 and rank 23rd in MLB in WAR. This is a bad team and they just lost Jake Peavy and Jesse Crain. It’s gonna get UG-LY (read that last sentence in a Hawk Harrelson voice).
27. Milwaukee Brewers (27)
The Brewers offense ranks only slightly below average thanks to great production from guys like Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura, but with the loss of Ryan Braun and the black holes at so many spots, it isn’t enough to carry baseball’s 24th best pitching staff. There is very little hope in Milwaukee this year.
26. Minnesota Twins (26)
The Twins rank 21st in hitting and pitching, but are pulled down to 28th overall in WAR thanks to a very poor defense. This is a bad club with a better future. They have a very nice farm system and should be relevant again before the decade is out, but there isn’t much left to do in 2013 other than play spoiler.
25. Chicago Cubs (24)
The Cubs are a team with some good players, but overall hasn’t played very well. They’re 24th at the plate and 19th on the mound, but have also traded some pieces leading up to the deadline. They’re building it right, but the drought will extend at least another season.
24. New York Mets (23)
The Mets are the 20th best offense and 20th best staff in baseball and fall to 24th on this list because there just isn’t a lot of hope they’ll play any better. Matt Harvey is right in the middle of the Cy Young conversation but they’re going to back off his innings as the season wears on. There are many glimmers of hope for the Mets, but they aren’t one of the best of 2013.
23. Seattle Mariners (25)
The Mariners actually have baseball’s 16th best offense and 13th best pitching staff, but also have baseball’s worst defense that has cost them about 5 wins in the standings all on its own. The Mariners aren’t a hapless bad team, but they are firmly outside of the contending realm as well.
22. San Diego Padres (22)
The Padres can hit a little bit and are an average defensive club, but their pitching is just terrible. I don’t have a lot else to say on the matter.
21. San Francisco Giants (14)
Talk about a free-fall. The Giants were in the top ten just two months ago but now they’re barely ahead of the Mets. The offense and defense are respectable, but the pitching continues to be poor and has yet to bounce back to the levels we expect. The clock is running out on the Giants season. I’m not sure how low they’ll finish this year, but for now it doesn’t look pretty for the champs.
20. Los Angeles Angels (17)
It still boggles the mind that the Angels didn’t spend their Hamilton money on pitching. They have baseball’s 5th best offense and 26th worst pitching staff. They completely misjudged their team and it will cost them a trip to the playoffs. They might even finish behind the Mariners despite Mike Trout being Mike Trout.
19. Colorado Rockies (19)
The Rockies offense is below average, but somehow their pitching continues to perform well. I don’t really understand it, but they haven’t played well overall since their hot start. They’re better than I thought at the start of the season, but they aren’t a good team.
18. Toronto Blue Jays (16)
The Blue Jays got bit by the injury bug, but their offense has played well coming in at 10th in MLB. The pitching, even when healthy, just hasn’t been very good. The Jays are likely disappointed, but even if they had played better, it still wouldn’t have been enough to be sure about a playoff spot.
17. Kansas City Royals (21)
The Royals are an average pitching staff with an excellent defense behind them. If only they weren’t terrible hitters. The Royals are baseball’s 5th worst offense, but for some reason, still thought it was a good idea to trade Wil Myers for James Shields last winter. The Royals are playing well enough to finish around .500, but this isn’t much more than an average club.
16. Philadelphia Phillies (18)
The Phils are probably a little worse than this empirically, but they seem very steady to me. They’re 26th in MLB in WAR, but they’re also 50-57 while playing their worst baseball of the season. They seem like a team that will finish just below .500 and still have some very good arms and interesting bats.
15. New York Yankees (12)
The Yankees are the White Sox with a good defense and just enough more on offense to let the pitching staff do the work. They are 19th in WAR as a club, but it’s all coming from the pitching staff. The key for the Yankees is that they got a lot of over-performing value up front and should be getting some good production from the injured stars down the stretch. They have Jeter back and Granderson very close which should help keep them from falling apart. This isn’t a playoff team in my mind, but they are good enough to be around the middle.
14. Washington Nationals (10)
I still believe in the Nats, but the clock has pretty much run out. After opening the season in the top spot they have slid in each ranking. They are baseball’s 25th best offense and the pitching, while sold, is not enough to carry them. Unless the offense starts to click soon, the Nationals will greatly disappoint. The talent is there, but they have not executed in 2013.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks (13)
The Dbacks are only the 22nd best offense in the game and 16th best staff, but they have an excellent defense which makes everything better. They currently rank 15th in total WAR and look to be right around the middle of the league as this thing winds down.
12. Cleveland Indians (15)
The Indians have a very good offense (3rd) to no one’s surprise. The pitching is 24th best in baseball, which likely isn’t enough to get them to October, but this will certainly be one of the best teams to miss the postseason. They’re record is better than their talent, but they don’t have enough pixie dust to turn themselves into a legitimate title contender.
11. Los Angeles Dodgers (20)
Finally the Dodgers started playing well. Their offense is now a top 10 one and the pitching staff isn’t great, but it has Clayton Kershaw. Overall they are 12th in WAR and are playing better as of late while the rest of the NL West is spiraling. With Hanley Ramirez back in All-Star form, they are finally clicking on all cylinders. I don’t think they’re equipped for a deep October run, but they’re no longer the mess they were a month ago.
10. Baltimore Orioles (9)
The Orioles made some moves this month to shore up the 25th best staff in baseball, but their strength remains their offense. The Orioles are probably going to go to the mat for the last wild card, but at the very least, so one considers them a fluke anymore. This is a good offense and good defense led by a smart manager. They don’t have the arms to be a force, but they are a very solid team.
9. Texas Rangers (4)
The Rangers are slumping hard right now which pushed them back a few spots. The bats are still 12th in baseball and the pitching staff remains #2. This is a good team going through a bad stretch. They’ll bounce back, but for now they’re out of the top five.
8. Cincinnati Reds (7)
The Reds are a very good team run by a very bad manager. They’re 7th in WAR and have the 8th best record in baseball, but they are losing games they shouldn’t lose because of Dusty Baker’s decision making. He’s recently moved Cozart out of the 2 hole, but he often replaces him with another poor hitter. He can’t manage a bullpen, either. The Reds are good, but if they miss the postseason by a game or two, you will know why.
7. Atlanta Braves (5)
The Braves just ran away and hid early. They are a top 10 offense and pitching staff and haven’t really done much of note since their hot start. They have talent that is playing up to par, but they look to be the safest division leader in the sport right now.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (11)
The Pirates are still playing over their heads for my money (15th best offense, 17th best staff) but they are 11th in WAR and you can’t erase the lucky wins they’ve already accumulated. They’re a lock to finish above .500 and are a pretty good bet to at least earn a trip to the play-in game. I think they’ll slow down going forward, but they’ve done the work for 107 games and even if they play closer to my expectations the rest of the way, they are still a top 10 team overall.
5. Oakland Athletics (8)
The A’s are kind of the same as the Pirates. They aren’t as good as their record shows, but they are a top 11 and 10 offense and pitching staff who has already earned their extra wins. The A’s are in good position to make the playoffs and should slow down a bit down the stretch, even if they don’t give anything away.
4. Boston Red Sox (3)
The Sox are 4th in offense and 4th on the mound and only rank 2nd in WAR because the Cardinals rate so poorly on defense. The Sox are a good team who added Jake Peavy for the stretch run. I don’t think they win the division, but this is a very good team.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (1)
The Cardinals are so well rounded that despite the present slump, it’s hard to see anything that can actually deflate their season. Except for losing Yadier Molina. Uh oh. The Cards are 6th at the plate and 7th on the mound, but they performed very well in high leverage spots to push their record above their performance overall. I don’t think that’s a predictive skill, but much like the Pirates and the A’s they have already won those games. If Yadi is out for a while, the Cardinals could be in trouble, but they’ll sit at 3rd for now until we know more.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (6)
I didn’t bail on the Rays when they started slow and I feel really good about that now. They have the league’s 2nd best offense, 3rd best staff, and one of the top defenses in the game. This is a well rounded team that always plays above their skill level thanks to excellent management from Joe Maddon. The Rays are on fire now, but look build to stay warm the whole way.
1. Detroit Tigers (2)
I don’t mean this to be a homer pick, but there isn’t really a case I can make against the Tigers based on how I do these rankings. They have the best offense in baseball. They have the best pitching staff in baseball. They lead all of MLB in WAR. They are only 3.5 games back of the best record overall. And it seems like they can play better than they did in the first half. So long as Cabrera doesn’t need a long DL trip and Iglesias can play good enough defense to fill in for Peralta’s bat, this is baseball’s best team.
Thoughts on the list? Let us know in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (August 1, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Essentially nothing happens at the trading deadline
- The Pirates win their 4th game in 3 days against the Cardinals
- Minor dominates as the Braves crush the Rockies
- Three Astros pitchers I’ve literally never heard of shutout the Orioles
- The Indians walk off on the White Sox
- Beltre and the Rangers walk off on the Angels
- Bailey dominates the Padres
What I’m Watching Today:
- Sale takes on Masterson in Cleveland (12p Eastern)
- Matt Harvey day! (1230p Eastern)
- Someone named Zeke Spruill pitches against Darvish (7p Eastern)
- Cain and Hamels in Philly (7p Eastern)
- The Cardinals try to avoid a 5 game sweep in PIT (7p Eastern)
- Felix faces the Sox (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are you ready for the A-Rod coverage?
With such an incredible day of baseball behind us it is sad to realize that a ridiculous amount of coverage will be focused on the impending attempt of MLB to ban Alex Rodriguez for life. A-Rod. The Yankees. The City of New York. Steroids. I’m surprised ESPN hasn’t melted already. Let’s talk about the games, okay? The Pirates have won four straight against the Cardinals and might grab a fifth today. The Pirates are going to finish over .500 and will likely make the playoffs. Woah.
The Morning Edition (July 31, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Tigers, Red Sox, and White Sox consummate a 3 team deal with Iglesias, Peavy, and Garcia on the move (Tigers coverage)
- A’s add Callaspo from the Angels for Grant Green
- Wheeler flirts with a no-hitter, Mets win in extras
- Davis homers to beat the Astros
- Pirates sweep a double headed with division rival Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gonzalez and Verlander (1p Eastern)
- Dickey faces Colon (330p Eastern)
- MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline (4p Eastern)
- Wainwright and Locke hook up in game 4 of the NL Central Series (7p Eastern)
- Kuroda and Kershaw out west (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How’s your team doing at the deadline?
I spend much of late Tuesday covering the Tigers deal (link above) so I don’t have a lot of thoughts. I’ll give you quick analysis of tomorrow’s deals in this spot and on Twitter. I like the Callaspo move for the A’s. Like the big deal for all parties involved. Enjoy the deadline.
Tigers See Their Chance, Grab Iglesias From Red Sox
Late Tuesday night, reports came down that Avi Garcia was pulled from his game in Toledo. This time of year that meant he was in the middle of a big trade rumor and it looks like that came true around 11pm as multiple reporters confirmed that the Tigers got involved in a three team deal that sent Garcia to the White Sox, Jake Peavy to the Red Sox, and Jose Iglesias to the Tigers. Additionally, the Tigers will send Brayan Villarreal to Boston and the Sox will send low level prospects to Chicago.
On the surface, it works for everyone. The White Sox get a high ceiling prospect in Garcia, the Red Sox get the starting pitcher they needed, and the Tigers get a SS to fill in for Jhonny Peralta who is, at this point, sure to be suspended this week. The Tigers gave up a young, cheap player from a position of strength for a young, cheap player at a position of weakness. The Red Sox gave up a young, cheap player from a position of strength for much needed pitcher. The White Sox traded a starter who won’t be a part of their future for an OF who could be.
This seems like a deal that works for everyone. I’m a Tigers writer, so I’m going to focus on the deal from their perspective. Jose Iglesias is an elite defender at SS and makes the Tigers starting pitchers, particularly their two elite level ground ball starters Porcello and Fister, much better. At New English D we judge pitchers on only what they can control, but it is also important to realize that run prevention wins games, not expected run prevention. The Tigers as a whole got much better at preventing runs with the addition of Iglesias, even if it doesn’t actually change anything about the pitchers themselves.
Porcello and Fister are very good pitchers, but their ERA’s will be helped a great deal by a player like Iglesias who will swallow up baseballs that Peralta couldn’t. Peralta isn’t a bad defender, but he’s not on Iglesias’ level either. And Peralta is getting suspended. Porcello and Fister are 2nd and 3rd in MLB in Ground Ball Percentage and the team just added someone who can get to ground balls with the best of them. Not only will Iglesias get to more balls than Peralta, but he can also get to a few ground balls in Cabrera’s zone as well that Peralta has been unable to help on.
The Tigers traded an OF who isn’t expected to be a player on the 2013 club and doesn’t really have a place on the team for 2014. With Jackson locked in center, Hunter under contract for 2014, and Castellanos twiddling his thumbs in AAA, there isn’t really a place for Garcia right now especially with absolutely no way to find ABs at DH until at least 2015. Garcia may prove to be a better player than Iglesias, but the immediate value Iglesias can bring to plug the whole at SS with excellent defense during a championship run is worth the cost. Iglesias profiles as a guy who could hit, but might not. He started hot this season but has cooled off this month. As long as he can provide something more than Worth or Santiago at the plate, it isn’t even worth talking about and Brayan Villarreal barely registers as a cost to the team.
Iglesias is a great defender at shortstop who won’t be a free agent for five more years. He’s 23. Garcia has a higher ceiling, but has plenty of risk too. This is the move you make. It’s the most Dave Dombrowski move since he traded for Fister. I like it a lot.
Iglesias can pick up some slack for Peralta at the dish, but he’s going to make up the lost value on the other side of the ball. He’s Brendan Ryan but with a reasonably decent bat. And he’s younger. And under team control. Dave rarely rents players. He finds opportunities to exploit an evolving market.
He heard the Red Sox wanted Peavy and he saw an opening to grab the SS he wanted. The Sox have Drew this year and top prospect Bogaerts coming. It was a chance to get a player that can help the Tigers now and in the future.
He went for it.
Now Iglesias doesn’t have enough big league time for me to do an in depth statistical breakdown, but everything I know about him says the value will be there on defense. Given the alternative, this is a smart move that could be a great move. Defense plays up in October and the Tigers were going to need a SS next year anyway. Dombrowski said he was probably done dealing at his press conference Tuesday afternoon, but we all knew that wasn’t true.
Dave doesn’t stop, he lurks. He waits. On Tuesday he grabbed a SS who makes the team better without paying too much. That’s a tough thing to do in a sport devoid of shortstops.
Maybe Garcia becomes and All-Star and this looks foolish in 2016. But it’s a gamble you take because, despite how much of a cliche it may be, flags fly forever.
5 Ways To Make The Trade Deadline More Fun
It’s that time of year again, when trade rumors overwhelm actual news, and life in general. Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Morosi, and Buster Olney pretty much take over the world by reporting “sourced” info about teams talking to other teams about potential trades. Almost every rumor is entirely useless and in many cases is just about driving page views. Some actual news will break and teams will make deals that they hope will improve their chances to win a World Series, but for the most part the attention devoted to trade rumors is a giant waste of time.
But for some reason people love the speculation. I don’t. I like analyzing the actual trades but I have zero interest in listening to “sources” telling a reporter that teams have or have not “checked in” about a player. The actual deals are cool, but so much of the deadline is about the deals that don’t get made.
Which leaves us with an opportunity to make it better. I’ve got five suggestions.
5. Move the Deadline to 4am
No matter when the deadline comes, teams will always work right up until it comes. Until recently it was midnight. What if we moved it to 4am and once a year we all stayed up watching the deadline unfold AFTER the day’s games? That sounds like fun. We’d all drag ourselves into work the next day comparing notes about when we finally gave up and went to bed. It would add an interesting, sleepover element to the affair and on-air commentators would be so slap-happy the would say even crazier stuff than they will anyway.
4. A Dedicated Twitter Account to Track Minor League Players Being Removed from the Game
This doesn’t need much explanation. You know you love the moments before a deal is announced when you hear prospect X just got pulled in the 4th inning. A trade is about to happen and you have no idea what it is but you know it’s serious because they took the player out of the game. How this doesn’t already exist, I have no idea.
3. Dugout Hugs Cam
Another no-brainer. When the players, minor and major leaguers, get pulled from the game because they are traded they hug their teammates goodbye. We should dedicate an MLB.TV channel to jumping around behind dugouts looking for hugs just like MLB Tonight jumps around games looking for big moments.
2. Trolling GM’s
This is a response to #3 and #4. While everyone latches on to players coming out of games in late July, they also make too much of it. We need more GM’s to call their minor league teams and have them take players out of the game for no reason. Imagine it. “Breaking News: Carlos Martinez pulled in the middle of the 3rd inning despite retiring first 7 batters,” and then everyone erupts about a trade coming down the pipe. Then nothing happens and it turns out the Cardinals were just messing with everyone. That would be awesome.
1. The Accountability Check
One of the things that bugs me about trade deadline season is that the Trade-Industrial Complex reporters answer to no one. Their connections in front offices help them hear about actual trades, but it also puts them in position to hear and report about rumors that are not at all newsworthy. Like, not even close to newsworthy. This is an actual report (I know it’s from May but it’s my favorite example ever):
So here’s what I propose. We catalog all of these reports from all of the major guys and keep a live tally of how much what they report turns out to be nonsense. I don’t know for sure, but it seems like their accuracy rate would be hilariously low and might show them that not everything they hear is worth sharing. Also, it would offer us a fun way to compare current rumors about the same player. For example, on Tuesday, Jeff Sullivan grabbed these two gems at pretty much the same time:
When those two things pop up at the same time, you know at least one of those reporters is playing it fast and loose. I think it’s fun to call them on it. They take their job way too seriously and act as if they are guarding Deepthroat as a source instead of an Assistant GM who wants to make friends in the media.
So those are my suggestions and I’d love to hear yours. I’m often annoyed by the trade deadline because I don’t generally enjoy the parts of it most people seem to enjoy. I like analyzing the trades when they happen and I don’t care about dreaming them up or hearing what “sources” have to say. These five might make the deadline more fun, and some of them could actually happen. Seriously, #3 and #4, someone get on that.
The Morning Edition (July 30, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Pirates ride a strong start from Liriano over the Cards
- Giambi walks off against the White Sox
- The Rangers get two homeruns in the 9th to come back against the Angels
- Price leads the Rays past the Sox
- CarGo goes 5-5, but the Braves walk off
What I’m Watching Today:
- Lynn and Burnett continue the 5 game set in Pittsburgh in Game 1 (4p Eastern)
- Peavy scheduled to start in Cleveland, but might be traded beforehand (7p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Sanchez (7p Eastern)
- Wheeler faces Eovaldi (7p Eastern)
- Wilson and Holland go in Texas (8p Eastern)
- Latos and Volquez start opposite one of the players for which they were traded (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Did you enjoy bullpen upgrade day?
The Tigers added Veras, the Braves got Downs (good move), and the Rays gambled on Crain (good move). Will the next two days include any big name starters or position players? I’m sure the TradeRumor-Industrial Complex is hoping so. They’ve been tweeting out rumors for so long they will look pretty silly if there aren’t a lot of players moved in the next 36 hours. We’ll have complete coverage of any Tigers moves here and some quick thoughts on the rest of the deals as well. Follow me on Twitter if you’re looking for up to the minute reaction to things that happen in baseball because most of my day is spent thinking about baseball and deciding if I have something interesting enough to share with other people. Usually the answer is no, but sometimes it is yes!
The Morning Edition (July 29, 2013)
over
From Last Night:
- Fernandez goes 8, K’s 13, walks none to lead the Fish past Cole
- Ross narrowly out pitches Corbin to win in AZ
- Cingrani and Capuano pitch to a draw before Puig sends everybody home
- Wood shuts down the Giants, who waste a nice start from Lincecum
- Gordon’s 12th inning bomb lifts the Royals
- The Nats unload on the Mets, win 14-1
- Lester leads the Sox to a 5-0 win
- Toronto walks off on Houston
- Jeter homers in his return, Soriano leads the Yanks to victory
What I’m Watching Today:
- David Price tries to stay hot versus the Sox (6p Eastern)
- Weaver faces Garza (7p Eastern)
- Beachy makes his 2013 debut (7p Eastern)
- Jacob Turner goes against the Mets (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are the BioGenesis suspensions coming today?
Reports have the suspensions coming down this week, likely all at once. We’ll see which players are actually affected, which rumors were wrong, and which players have kept their names out of the press. The impact on the pennant race will be real, but likely not substantial because a given player can only have so much impacted over 55 games. Teams will scramble to find replacements, but the impact will be unpredictable. We’ve had months of speculation that was absolutely unnecessary, now we’re actually going to see something happen. Stay tuned.
SOEFA Sunday: Reliever Rankings Update (July 28, 2013)
You’ll recall earlier this year we introduced our very own reliever rankings called SOEFA, which you can read about in detail here. For a brief refresher, it combines strand rate, expected OBP against, ERA-, and FIP- into a deviation from league average. Zero is average, and will generally range between -2.5 to 2.5. This includes all pitchers who have thrown at least 20 IP in relief. Should you wish to know the SOEFA for any other reliever, or on a day that isn’t Sunday, hit us on Twitter or in the comments section.
| Rank | Player | Team | SOEFA |
| 1 | Alex Torres | Rays | 1.02 |
| 2 | Neal Cotts | Rangers | 1.00 |
| 3 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.99 |
| 4 | Sergio Romo | Giants | 0.86 |
| 5 | Joaquin Benoit | Tigers | 0.84 |
| 6 | Greg Holland | Royals | 0.84 |
| 7 | Will Harris | Diamondbacks | 0.83 |
| 8 | Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 0.79 |
| 9 | Mark Melancon | Pirates | 0.79 |
| 10 | Javier Lopez | Giants | 0.79 |
| 11 | Jesse Crain | White Sox | 0.78 |
| 12 | Juan Perez | Blue Jays | 0.77 |
| 13 | Casey Fien | Twins | 0.77 |
| 14 | Jordan Walden | Braves | 0.74 |
| 15 | Joe Thatcher | Padres | 0.73 |
| 16 | Sam LeCure | Reds | 0.72 |
| 17 | Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 0.72 |
| 18 | Jason Grilli | Pirates | 0.71 |
| 19 | Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 0.68 |
| 20 | Preston Claiborne | Yankees | 0.67 |
| 21 | Casey Janssen | Blue Jays | 0.67 |
| 22 | Edward Mujica | Cardinals | 0.66 |
| 23 | Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 0.65 |
| 24 | Glen Perkins | Twins | 0.63 |
| 25 | Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 0.62 |
| 26 | Manny Parra | Reds | 0.59 |
| 27 | Paco Rodriguez | Dodgers | 0.57 |
| 28 | Brandon Kintzler | Brewers | 0.55 |
| 29 | Oliver Perez | Mariners | 0.55 |
| 30 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | 0.55 |
| 31 | Seth Maness | Cardinals | 0.55 |
| 32 | Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 0.54 |
| 33 | Andrew Bailey | Red Sox | 0.52 |
| 34 | David Aardsma | Mets | 0.52 |
| 35 | Chad Qualls | Marlins | 0.51 |
| 36 | Edgmer Escalona | Rockies | 0.51 |
| 37 | Matt Belisle | Rockies | 0.50 |
| 38 | Brian Matusz | Orioles | 0.49 |
| 39 | Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 0.49 |
| 40 | Joel Peralta | Rays | 0.49 |
| 41 | Fernando Abad | Nationals | 0.49 |
| 42 | Antonio Bastardo | Phillies | 0.48 |
| 43 | Ryan Cook | Athletics | 0.48 |
| 44 | Andrew Miller | Red Sox | 0.48 |
| 45 | Boone Logan | Yankees | 0.48 |
| 46 | Luke Hochevar | Royals | 0.47 |
| 47 | Darren O’Day | Orioles | 0.47 |
| 48 | Tommy Hunter | Orioles | 0.46 |
| 49 | Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 0.45 |
| 50 | Bobby Parnell | Mets | 0.45 |
| 51 | Ross Ohlendorf | Nationals | 0.44 |
| 52 | Junichi Tazawa | Red Sox | 0.44 |
| 53 | Josh Collmenter | Diamondbacks | 0.43 |
| 54 | Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 0.43 |
| 55 | Jim Henderson | Brewers | 0.42 |
| 56 | Matt Reynolds | Diamondbacks | 0.42 |
| 57 | Jonathan Papelbon | Phillies | 0.42 |
| 58 | Dale Thayer | Padres | 0.42 |
| 59 | Chad Gaudin | Giants | 0.41 |
| 60 | Sandy Rosario | Giants | 0.40 |
| 61 | Dan Jennings | Marlins | 0.40 |
| 62 | Francisco Rodriguez | – – – | 0.40 |
| 63 | Addison Reed | White Sox | 0.39 |
| 64 | J.P. Howell | Dodgers | 0.39 |
| 65 | Brad Ziegler | Diamondbacks | 0.38 |
| 66 | Luis Avilan | Braves | 0.36 |
| 67 | Jason Frasor | Rangers | 0.36 |
| 68 | Vin Mazzaro | Pirates | 0.36 |
| 69 | David Carpenter | Braves | 0.34 |
| 70 | Tom Gorzelanny | Brewers | 0.34 |
| 71 | Jeanmar Gomez | Pirates | 0.34 |
| 72 | Kevin Gregg | Cubs | 0.33 |
| 73 | Cody Allen | Indians | 0.33 |
| 74 | Santiago Casilla | Giants | 0.32 |
| 75 | Randy Choate | Cardinals | 0.32 |
| 76 | Steve Cishek | Marlins | 0.30 |
| 77 | Tanner Scheppers | Rangers | 0.30 |
| 78 | Ernesto Frieri | Angels | 0.30 |
| 79 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 0.30 |
| 80 | Scott Downs | Angels | 0.28 |
| 81 | James Russell | Cubs | 0.28 |
| 82 | Pat Neshek | Athletics | 0.27 |
| 83 | Michael Kohn | Angels | 0.27 |
| 84 | Jean Machi | Giants | 0.27 |
| 85 | Josh Outman | Rockies | 0.26 |
| 86 | Rafael Betancourt | Rockies | 0.26 |
| 87 | Aaron Loup | Blue Jays | 0.26 |
| 88 | Tony Watson | Pirates | 0.25 |
| 89 | Alfredo Figaro | Brewers | 0.25 |
| 90 | Jerome Williams | Angels | 0.25 |
| 91 | Jared Burton | Twins | 0.24 |
| 92 | Jose Veras | Astros | 0.24 |
| 93 | Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 0.23 |
| 94 | Anthony Swarzak | Twins | 0.23 |
| 95 | Nate Jones | White Sox | 0.23 |
| 96 | Jim Johnson | Orioles | 0.23 |
| 97 | Jose Mijares | Giants | 0.23 |
| 98 | Fernando Rodney | Rays | 0.21 |
| 99 | Craig Breslow | Red Sox | 0.21 |
| 100 | Luke Gregerson | Padres | 0.21 |
| 101 | Justin Wilson | Pirates | 0.20 |
| 102 | David Robertson | Yankees | 0.20 |
| 103 | Rex Brothers | Rockies | 0.19 |
| 104 | Rafael Soriano | Nationals | 0.18 |
| 105 | Caleb Thielbar | Twins | 0.17 |
| 106 | Ross Wolf | Rangers | 0.16 |
| 107 | J.J. Hoover | Reds | 0.16 |
| 108 | Jamey Wright | Rays | 0.15 |
| 109 | Mariano Rivera | Yankees | 0.14 |
| 110 | Dane de la Rosa | Angels | 0.14 |
| 111 | Logan Ondrusek | Reds | 0.14 |
| 112 | Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 0.13 |
| 113 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.13 |
| 114 | Heath Bell | Diamondbacks | 0.12 |
| 115 | Kevin Jepsen | Angels | 0.11 |
| 116 | Bryan Morris | Pirates | 0.11 |
| 117 | A.J. Ramos | Marlins | 0.11 |
| 118 | Joe Nathan | Rangers | 0.09 |
| 119 | John Axford | Brewers | 0.09 |
| 120 | Anthony Varvaro | Braves | 0.08 |
| 121 | Burke Badenhop | Brewers | 0.07 |
| 122 | Tim Collins | Royals | 0.07 |
| 123 | Chris Perez | Indians | 0.06 |
| 124 | Joe Kelly | Cardinals | 0.06 |
| 125 | Aaron Crow | Royals | 0.05 |
| 126 | Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.04 |
| 127 | LaTroy Hawkins | Mets | 0.04 |
| 128 | Mike Dunn | Marlins | 0.04 |
| 129 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | 0.02 |
| 130 | Yoervis Medina | Mariners | 0.01 |
| 131 | Matt Lindstrom | White Sox | 0.01 |
| 132 | Ryan Pressly | Twins | 0.00 |
| 133 | Matt Thornton | – – – | -0.01 |
| 134 | Joe Smith | Indians | -0.01 |
| 135 | Adam Ottavino | Rockies | -0.02 |
| 136 | Bryan Shaw | Indians | -0.04 |
| 137 | Manuel Corpas | Rockies | -0.04 |
| 138 | Joe Ortiz | Rangers | -0.04 |
| 139 | Michael Bowden | Cubs | -0.05 |
| 140 | Carter Capps | Mariners | -0.05 |
| 141 | Wilton Lopez | Rockies | -0.05 |
| 142 | Jake McGee | Rays | -0.07 |
| 143 | Craig Stammen | Nationals | -0.08 |
| 144 | Brad Brach | Padres | -0.09 |
| 145 | Greg Burke | Mets | -0.09 |
| 146 | Darren Oliver | Blue Jays | -0.09 |
| 147 | Scott Rice | Mets | -0.09 |
| 148 | Ryan Webb | Marlins | -0.09 |
| 149 | Josh Edgin | Mets | -0.09 |
| 150 | Tony Sipp | Diamondbacks | -0.10 |
| 151 | Matt Guerrier | – – – | -0.11 |
| 152 | Troy Patton | Orioles | -0.11 |
| 153 | Darin Downs | Tigers | -0.11 |
| 154 | Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | -0.12 |
| 155 | Brian Duensing | Twins | -0.12 |
| 156 | J.J. Putz | Diamondbacks | -0.12 |
| 157 | Tim Stauffer | Padres | -0.13 |
| 158 | Blake Parker | Cubs | -0.14 |
| 159 | Brad Lincoln | Blue Jays | -0.15 |
| 160 | Luke Putkonen | Tigers | -0.17 |
| 161 | Tom Wilhelmsen | Mariners | -0.17 |
| 162 | Josh Roenicke | Twins | -0.19 |
| 163 | Cory Gearrin | Braves | -0.19 |
| 164 | Rich Hill | Indians | -0.20 |
| 165 | Nick Hagadone | Indians | -0.21 |
| 166 | Jerry Blevins | Athletics | -0.22 |
| 167 | Wesley Wright | Astros | -0.23 |
| 168 | David Hernandez | Diamondbacks | -0.23 |
| 169 | Ronald Belisario | Dodgers | -0.25 |
| 170 | Jonathan Broxton | Reds | -0.26 |
| 171 | Blake Beavan | Mariners | -0.27 |
| 172 | Phil Coke | Tigers | -0.28 |
| 173 | Michael Gonzalez | Brewers | -0.28 |
| 174 | Vinnie Pestano | Indians | -0.28 |
| 175 | Danny Farquhar | Mariners | -0.29 |
| 176 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.30 |
| 177 | Jose Cisnero | Astros | -0.32 |
| 178 | Pedro Strop | – – – | -0.34 |
| 179 | George Kontos | Giants | -0.35 |
| 180 | Drew Storen | Nationals | -0.36 |
| 181 | T.J. McFarland | Orioles | -0.36 |
| 182 | Grant Balfour | Athletics | -0.36 |
| 183 | Paul Clemens | Astros | -0.37 |
| 184 | Kyle Farnsworth | Rays | -0.37 |
| 185 | Matt Albers | Indians | -0.39 |
| 186 | Mike Adams | Phillies | -0.40 |
| 187 | Huston Street | Padres | -0.40 |
| 188 | Kelvin Herrera | Royals | -0.40 |
| 189 | Clayton Mortensen | Red Sox | -0.41 |
| 190 | Travis Blackley | Astros | -0.42 |
| 191 | Scott Atchison | Mets | -0.43 |
| 192 | Alex Wilson | Red Sox | -0.44 |
| 193 | Al Alburquerque | Tigers | -0.47 |
| 194 | Brandon Lyon | Mets | -0.48 |
| 195 | Esmil Rogers | Blue Jays | -0.49 |
| 196 | Justin De Fratus | Phillies | -0.52 |
| 197 | Bruce Chen | Royals | -0.54 |
| 198 | Jeremy Horst | Phillies | -0.59 |
| 199 | Raul Valdes | Phillies | -0.62 |
| 200 | Hector Ambriz | Astros | -0.62 |
| 201 | Jeremy Affeldt | Giants | -0.64 |
| 202 | Adam Warren | Yankees | -0.67 |
| 203 | Henry Rodriguez | – – – | -0.70 |
| 204 | Michael Kirkman | Rangers | -0.73 |
| 205 | Carlos Marmol | – – – | -0.86 |
| 206 | Anthony Bass | Padres | -0.91 |
| 207 | Shawn Camp | Cubs | -1.02 |
| 208 | Hector Rondon | Cubs | -1.05 |
| 209 | Brandon League | Dodgers | -1.12 |
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