The Morning Edition (June 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clete Thomas goes 4-4 as the Twins beat the Phils
- Miller K’s 10 but gives up 4 as the Cards fall to the Mets
- The Pirates outslug the Giants 12-8
- Frazier homers to lift Leake over Wood and the Cubs
- The Angels beat the O’s despite an 0-5 from Trout
What I’m Watching Today:
- WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY. WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY (1p Eastern)
- Guys, Wainwright and Harvey!
- Latos versus Sharky (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Jays again (8p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee heads to Minnesota (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Wainwright and Harvey a Cy Young battle?
That’s a bit of a misnomer, but it’s easily one of the top duels we’ve seen so far this season even if it won’t actually determine who wins the Cy Young. But it should inform who gets to start the All-Star Game. Verlander and Darvish was close as far as how each pitcher had performed up to that point, but not quite. Let’s look at the big one tomorrow:
Wainwright: 9-3, 93 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 3.8 WAR
Harvey: 5-0, 90 IP, 2.10 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 3.0 WAR
The two starters are 26th and 9th in K/9, 1st and 22nd in BB/9, 8th and 5th in ERA, 1st and 3rd in FIP, 2nd and 6th in xFIP, and 1st and 4th in WAR in MLB. So yeah, that’s pretty good. Watch it. And while you’re waiting for that one to start, check out New English D’s newest feature: New English D Audio.
New English D Audio: Episode 1 Featuring Cameron Bonk
On the first ever edition of New English D Audio I talk with Cameron Bonk of The Guy Show and The Farm Club about the state of the Tigers, specifically their bullpen, and about the difference between being a fan of one or multiple sports. I also hit Cam with some lightening round questions, including which Tigers player he would most trust to date his sister. The author apologizes for the slight inconsistency in volume, as he has just recently learned to create audio files. He promises future editions will not have this issue.
Enjoy and please direct any podcast related questions to NewEnglishD@gmail.com or @NeilWeinberg44 on Twitter.
Download (Approx 22 mins)
How Was The Game? (June 12, 2013)
Pretty much exactly what you’d have expected.
Royals 3, Tigers 2
Earlier this year I decried the performances of Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish in what was supposed to be a great duel, but Verlander and Shields lined up against each other today and gave the people what they wanted. The Tigers got single runs in the 1st and 5th and that would be it on the scoring as Verlander (8-4, 87 IP, 3.41 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.0 WAR) gave the Tigers 7 innings of shutout baseball that featured just 3 hits, 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts and Shields offered 7 2-run innings himself. After some struggles in May, Verlander looks like he’s back on track and pitching like the $200 million man. Unfortunately, Jose Valverde is pitching exactly like himself as well, which means he isn’t pitching well. Leyland went to him after Smyly allowed a baserunner in the 9th and Valverde gave up a game tying homerun two batters later. At this point, you can’t be mad at Valverde because he simply isn’t good enough to pitch in close games. This falls squarely on Leyland and Dombrowski’s shoulders. I just feel bad for him now. I don’t support the use of a closer at all, but if you’re going to use one, they can’t be this bad. Coke came on in relief of Valverde and gave up a run in the 10th to end it. The Tigers have still won 6 of their last 9 and are eight games over the .500 mark at 36-28. They’ll take Thursday off in preparation for a three game set with the Twins this weekend. Rick Porcello (3-3, 63 IP, 4.86 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.0 WAR) and his rising star (and amazing 2.96 xFIP) will take the mound in game one and may have Austin Jackson behind him depending on how he feels after today’s rehab game.
The Moment: Lough makes a diving grab to rob Cabrera of an RBI double.
The Morning Edition (June 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Dbacks and Dodgers trade serious beanballs, brawl in LA, many suspensions to come
- Cole goes 6.1 in his MLB debut as the Pirates beat the Giants
- The Jays tie it in the 9th and win it in the 10th against the White Sox
- Kluber goes 8 to end the Indians’ skid
- Cingrani and the Reds unload on Garza and the Cubs
- Stanton homers in the 8th to avoid spoiling Turner’s strong outing
- Rays shell Lester
- Harang CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller goes to Citi Field (7p Eastern)
- Corbin and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
- Bonderman gets the Astros in Seattle (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, no hard feelings between the Dodgers and Dbacks?
Hardly the case. Greinke hit Ross early in the game (not intentional at all), but things heated up when Kennedy hit Puig in the 6th and Greinke retaliated by hitting Montero in the 7th. Greinke came to the plate in the 7th and Kennedy hit him in the head, precipitating a massive bench clearing brawl that featured grown men tackling each other and punches being thrown. I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need to curtail this type of behavior in baseball. I wasn’t watching the game, so I don’t know which pitch was the one that started it, but everyone carries some blame for keeping it going. I hope MLB suspends everyone involved because there is just no place for this in the game. Intentional beaning is dangerous and childish, especially when it’s up around the head, but it’s even more ridiculous for adults to run onto the field and start fighting. I have no problem with certain members of the teams coming out to talk and yell about it, but it’s not appropriate to settle these things with violence. If this happened somewhere other than the field of play, there would be arrests. It reflects poorly on the sport, even if people enjoy it.
Dynamic Standings Projection (June 12, 2013)
In case you missed it, in April we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games. You’ll notice a series of graphs below the standings section that track how the projections have evolved over the course of the year.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the June 11 games.
How Was The Game? (June 11, 2013)
A close one, but a good one.
Tigers 3, Royals 2
Looking to stop the Royals winning streak, the Tigers sent Max Scherzer (9-0, 93.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 3.0 WAR) to the mound looking to deliver another great performance and after struggling with command in the first inning, he turned in another fine outing by providing 7 innings of 3 hit, 2 run, 2 walk, and 6 strikeout baseball despite having issues deciding on an outfit:
The 8 and 9 hitters did most of the heavy lifting as Infante went 3-4 and Kelly and Garcia combined to go 3-4. The Tigers got out to an early lead, but wouldn’t score the winning run until the 8th inning on a Martinez sac fly. Valverde made it interesting, but escaped the 9th thanks in part to a generous call by the HP umpire that wasn’t good, but wasn’t as bad as Butler thought:
The win pushes the Tigers to 36-27 and they will go for the series victory behind Justin Verlander (8-4, 80 IP, 3.71 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 2.7 WAR) tomorrow in KC. In Verlander’s last start against the Royals this season, he went 7 innings and allowed 1 ER in an extra inning loss.
The Moment: Cabrera scores on a Martinez sac fly in the 8th.
Max Scherzer the Ace: The Key to His Transformation
I don’t need to tell you that Max Scherzer is an excellent MLB starting pitcher or that he’s having his best season to date. For one, I’ve already done so on a couple of occasions (Two Game Breakdowns: here and here). Also, you have eyes. You’ve watched him pitch and you’ve checked out his numbers.
But let me hit on some relevant points. Max Scherzer has the lowest walk rate of his career. He has the lowest homerun rate of his career. He has the lowest ERA, FIP, and xFIP of his career. He’s on pace for his highest WAR and might get there by August. He’s added a curveball and is using it along side his changeup to give hitters more frequent offspeed looks. He’s getting more groundballs than last year at the expense of line drives.
I’ve already laid out in the links above how well he’s avoiding the top of the strike zone. Heck, he’s throwing more strikes period. The worst things you can say about Scherzer this year is that his strikeout rate was about .25 K/9 higher last year and that his BABIP is a bit lower than we should probably expect it. That’s it. He’s due for a little regression to the mean, but almost all of his numbers look stable. This is the best we’ve seen from Scherzer. But you knew that.
You knew he’s 6th among pitchers in WAR, 4th in FIP, 5th in xFIP, and 3rd in K/9. You’ve seen it all. He’s finally putting it all together. That’s established.
So the next question is what’s different? Well I already mentioned the new pitch and the additional use of offspeed pitches. He’s throwing more strikes, but he’s not really inducing more swings and misses or more chases outside the zone. I’ve routinely talked about Scherzer’s need to rein in his wild delivery if he wanted to really have a great season. He’s doing that.
Let’s take a look at the pitches themselves. First we have single game averages from 2011:
Now here’s 2013:
The scales are essentially identical, and while the sample size is 1/3 the size in the lower chart, you can see how much more consistent the velocity and movement are on his pitches these days. To me, that’s because he’s repeating his delivery much more so than he used to. The stuff was always good, but now he’s getting more consistent results because his release point is more consistent. Here are 2011 and 2013:
So let’s consider the facts. Max Scherzer has always had great stuff and his inconsistency held him back. Over the last the last couple seasons, he’s worked on it and has found a way to repeat his delivery such that the results are lining up with the scouting report. He’s having his best season yet and it looks like he’s finally climbed his Everest and figured out his delivery.
As he looks to make start #13 tonight, one has to ask if Max Scherzer is now officially an ace. I consider the top 15 or so starters to be aces and Scherzer is certainly one of those this year by every available measure and was just on the edge of that last season. But Scherzer also has the requisite dominant stuff that aces need and is capable of twirling a lights-out-10+K performance on almost any occasion.
Scherzer is finally getting results in line with his skills and he’s done so by going to his offspeed stuff more often and doing whatever he needed to do to get his mechanics in order so that he could command his brilliant stuff well. Max Scherzer has spent the last three years in Justin Verlander’s shadow. At times in Anibal Sanchez’s and Doug Fister’s shadow. But Max Scherzer is no man’s understudy. Max Scherzer is an ace all on his own. He’s making a case to start the All-Star Game in July and is very much in the discussion for AL Cy Young.
If you liked this, check out New English D on Porcello’s Breakout Campaign, Anibal Sanchez’s Cy Young Leap, The Tigers Approach to Pitching, and Why They Have the Best Rotation Ever.
The Morning Edition (June 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox and Rays enter into Game of the Year territory (see below)
- Bailey rolls over the Cubs with 8 innings, 0 ER
- A fog delay at US Cellular
- Another Kershaw-y Kershaw start
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gerrit Cole makes his MLB debut against the Giants (7p Eastern)
- Lester starts after Monday’s marathon game (7p Eastern)
- Turner tries to stay hot in Miami (7p Eastern)
- Wacha against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- CC and Colon in Oakland, I’ll leave the jokes to you (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe that game in Tampa last night?
So here’s what happened, briefly. Alex Cobb started and got shelled. 6 run first. But the Rays clawed back. 2 in the first and 1 in each of the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th. 6-6. In the 10th, the Sox got two to take the lead, then Andrew Bailey had the meltdown to end all meltdowns and sent it hurling forward deeper into the night. It ended, finally, when Nava singled home Victorino in the 14th and the Sox added another for good measure. Just for reference, one of the more incredible win expectancy graphs you will ever see:
How Was The Game? (June 10, 2013)
A little unfair to Fister.
Royals 3, Tigers 2
In the interest of tidy box scores, both clubs limited their scoring to the 3rd inning today as Miguel Cabrera delivered a 2 run HR in the top of the inning and the Tigers defense helped the Royals respond with 3 in the bottom half. Doug Fister (5-4, 85 IP, 3.28 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.8 WAR) was characteristically fantastic and only allowed runs in one inning that featured 2 infield hits, a regular hit, and a triple that should have been kept to a single if not for a poor play by Garcia and Hunter. Fister would end the day with a CG, 3 run affair with 0 walks and 3 K in the losing effort that also pushed his GB rate to 57.5% which is second best among MLB starters.
After four straight wins, it’s hard to complain, but Doug Fister deserves better and I would like to request that the Tigers spread their poor offensive games around and don’t use them all up with Fister on the mound. Max Scherzer (8-0, 83.1 IP, 3.24 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 2.9 WAR) will take the hill tomorrow looking to even the series and improve his own All-Star and Cy Young profile.
The Moment: After a strike-em-out-throw-em-out to end the 4th inning, all 9 Tigers thought there were only two outs and didn’t leave the field.
Understanding the Tigers Bullpen
If you follow me on Twitter or have spent a lot of time on this site (here, also here) you know that I’m not a fan of how most managers use their bullpens. Primarily, I think “saves” are worthless and utilizing a one inning-saves only closer, even if that closer is excellent, is not the right way to use your bullpen.
This idea is simple and it’s explained in the links above, but I’ll summarize. You should use your best relievers when the game is most on the line. That does not always happen in the 9th inning. Your relief ace should pitch when he is needed, not when he can accumulate saves. The 9th inning is not “a different animal” that requires special skills. Many pitchers have moved into the 9th inning role without any problem and a high number of saves does not mean you have pitched well.
In general, I’m a fan of rethinking bullpen usage so that the best pitchers pitch in key situations. I’ve routinely mentioned that Jose Valverde is not a good MLB reliever anymore, but even if he was, the Tigers are using him incorrectly. Let’s explore.
Fangraphs furnishes a statistic that measure the average leverage index each pitcher enters the game during. Leverage index measures how much the game is “on the line” at every moment, so this captures exactly what we’re after. On average, how critical is the moment that Leyland brings in each reliever:
Obvious, some of these guys have fewer appearance than others, but you’ll note that Phil Coke, Jose Valverde, and Darin Downs have been called on during the most critical moments with Joaquin Benoit coming in 4th among pitchers who have a decent chunk of innings. What you should also notice is that Drew Smyly is effectively dead last because Reed and Porcello have hardly pitched at all.
Yet it’s Benoit and Smyly who are actually the team’s best relievers. If we look at Win Probability Added (WPA) which measures the the change in win expectancy from a pitcher’s entry into the game until their removal, Smyly and Benoit are the best the Tigers have:
And if you’d rather consider WPA in conjunction with LI:
What we see here is that Smyly and Benoit are the pitchers who are performing the best out of the Tigers bullpen but they aren’t getting place in the high leverage situations. Leyland is going to Coke, Valverde, and Downs more than Benoit and Smyly when the game is on the line even though those guys are worse.
We can look to other numbers like FIP and ERA, among Tigers relievers with more than 8 IP, Smyly and Benoit reign:
Put very clearly, Smyly (who is 8th in MLB in reliever WAR) and Benoit are the Tigers best two relievers by pretty much every objective measure, yet they are not getting the call when the games count most. Until yesterday (June 9th), Smyly had pitched to just 15 batters in the previous 2 weeks despite being the team’s best reliever. That just isn’t acceptable.
The way to fix this is simple. First, managers need to stop valuing “proven closers” and should not be afraid to go to closer by committee. Jose Valverde leads the Tigers in “Saves,” but by every other measure, he’s nowhere close to the team’s best pitcher. Second, managers need to accept that the most important time in the game is not always the 9th inning and should bring in their best reliever to face the other team’s best hitters or when the other team is threatening. If you go to your best guy with the bases empty against the 6-7-8 hitters, you’re wasting them.
The flaws were on display in Baltimore (5/31) when Jose Valverde came into the game in the 9th inning up by 2 against the Orioles’ best hitters and blew the game, but on the next day, Leyland went to Smyly for two innings up by 7 runs. The opposite should have happened. Valverde should not pitch when the game is on the line and Smyly shouldn’t pitch in garbage time. You need to align your best relievers with the most important moments in the game.
Now certainly you can’t see the future and I won’t begrudge someone for going to Smyly in a tight spot only to find the game gets tighter in a future inning. But when Leyland doesn’t use Smyly for days at a time and then gets him work during a blowout, it’s maddening.
People complain about the Tigers’ bullpen, but it’s actually 7th in MLB in WAR, 9th in FIP, and 4th in K/9. It’s not elite, but it’s reasonably good. The problem is not the individual pitchers but rather how they are used. If Leyland was willing to think differently and go to his best guys in the tightest spots, the Tigers wouldn’t have these late inning issues.
The Tigers have far and away the league’s best staff and one of the best couple of offenses. Their only weaknesses are defense and the bullpen, but the bullpen isn’t really a weakness, it’s an inefficiency. And it’s one that can be fixed.
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