On Defense and Unearned Runs: ERA Isn’t the Answer
Last night, Justin Verlander was not at his best, but his overall line looked worse than it was because Torii Hunter made two poor plays in right that cost Verlander two runs, but neither was ruled an error. So Verlander’s ERA goes up because of poor defense even though conventional wisdom is that the “earned” part of ERA factors out your defense making mistakes behind you.
It does and it doesn’t. You don’t get charged for runs that come from errors but you do get penalized when the official scorer makes a mistake (as we saw last night) and when your defensive players do not make a play they should have even though it does not qualify as an error. Sabermetricians have devised other metrics like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and others to stand in for ERA with a focus on elements of the game that pitchers can control because they have no control of what happens once contact is made. (Read my explanation of FIP for more specific information)
Today, I’d like to offer a little concrete evidence for why ERA doesn’t capture a pitcher’s value. Let’s take an independent measure of defense (Fangraph’s aggregate Fld score) and compare it to the number of unearned runs a team allows (or the percentage of a team’s runs that are unearned).
I haven’t looked back into history, but for 2013 the relationship is nonexistent. For the raw number of unearned runs, the results are not statistically significant and are substantively small. On average a team needs to increase its Fld score (range -21 to 18 so far) by about 7 to eliminate a single unearned run on average (range 5 to 25 so far). On average, from worst to first in Fld you can move only 20% of the range of unearned runs. This tells us that the strength of one’s defense does not predict the number of unearned runs allowed. The results are the same if we control for the total number of runs a team has allowed.
Here it is in graphical form:
As you can see, the number of unearned runs has almost no relationship with Fld and if you squint hard enough can only come up with the slightest negative tilt. Basically, what this is showing you is that the difference between your runs allowed and the runs you get shoved into your ERA do not depend on the quality of your defense, it depends on the official scorer and it depends on a lot of other things that have nothing to do with a pitcher’s skill or performance.
This is all by way of saying that ERA is not a good measure of a pitcher’s true skill level. It’s not a bad place to start, but if you look at the Won-Loss Record and ERA, you’re getting very little useful information. Expand your horizon to K/9, BB/9, HR/FB, FIP, xFIP, and other statistics and metrics that enrich the game.
ERA attempts to capture the pitcher’s performance in isolation but it doesn’t. The defense and the official scorer play huge roles in determining that number. If you want to judge a pitcher by themselves, you need to look deeper.
If you’re interested in learning more, I encourage you to visit the Fangraphs Glossary or to post questions in the comment section. I’d be happy to explain or interpret any and all statistics about which you are curious.
The Morning Edition (May 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Cliff Lee delivers the CGSO against the Marlins
- Wilson strong as the Angels thump the Mariners
- Granderson comes up a 3B short of the cycle, but Kuroda leaves early as the Yanks fall
- Liriano out duels Sharky at PNC
- Bautista homers twice and then hits a walk off extra inning single
- Gio and Bumgarner duel but the bullpens decide it in favor of the Nats
- The Reds make Harvey look human, win in the 9th
What I’m Watching Today:
- Only four games on the schedule that don’t involve the Tigers, here are your matchups: Jackson/Gomez, Gausman/Morrow, McAllister/Dempster, Blanton/Santana
- I’d tell you I was watching Gausman, but I can’t because I live in NC and we aren’t legally allowed to watch the Orioles or Nationals play under any circumstances
The Big Question:
- How do you spend rain delays? (I stare off into space until there is something worth watching again.)
I’ve written a good deal about guys near the top of the WAR leaderboard, but I’m going for it again because I noticed something as of this moment: four of the top six players on the list are the guys I consider to be the four best in the game. Longoria (1), Cabrera (2), Votto (3), Trout (6). Trout and Longoria are elite two way players while Cabrera and Votto are the best hitters in their respective leagues. It’s not often that your expectations line up with reality so well, but here we are.
How Was The Game? (May 22, 2013)
All over the place.
Tigers 11, Indians 7
The Tigers jumped out to a first inning 2-0 lead and then Justin Verlander (4/5-4, 59 IP, 3.66 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 2.1 WAR) gave a run back in each of the first two innings with some help from terrible “non-error” defense from Torii Hunter. But then the Tigers offense came alive with 4 in the 3rd and Verlander looked like he figured something out and shut the Indians down in the 3rd and 4th. In the 5th, the Tigers added 3 more runs and Verlander came out for the bottom half and gave up three more runs. And then the rain came and the game was halted before the inning could be completed. After a 62 minute delay, Verlander came back out to finish the 5th and qualify for a win. Then relief ace Smyly gave up 2 in the 6th to make it 9-7. After a scoreless 7th, the rain came again and we waited another 50 minutes for the 8th inning in which Miguel Cabrera hit a ball to the warning track that Michael Bourn knocked over the fence for a two run homer. The game was exactly as head-shakingly chaotic as the first several sentences of this post and I wrote it that way so you could feel the game in my words. It was one of those baseball games that just wore you down even though your team led the entire way. The win improves the Tigers to 25-19 and gives them a short, two game sweep of the Indians and sends them home to face the Twins behind Rick Porcello (2-2, 38 IP, 5.92 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 0.4 WAR) whom I argue is on his way to a breakout year. It’s unclear for certain what caused Verlander’s odd start, but there are some rumblings of sign stealing, which I can’t really dispute give that nothing else seems to be wrong with him. We’ll have to wait and see where things go from here, but the Tigers got the win and that’s good enough for me on this night. Also, if you missed it, here’s my piece from earlier on Max Scherzer’s dominate performance from Tuesday.
The Moment: Don Kelly scores on a double steal in the 5th.
Three Reasons Max Scherzer Dominated the Indians
Max Scherzer pitches for the Tigers and is also known for having two different colored eyes. Some Tigers fans like to joke that when Scherzer is pitching poorly he is pitching from the brown eye and when he is pitching well he is pitching from the blue eye. I’m not sure if that’s a real medical condition, but if it is, Max Scherzer was all blue eye on Tuesday.
He threw 8 innings, allowed 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, and 7 K and retired the last 22 batters he faced in order. It wasn’t his highest strikeout performance, but it was superb in every way. Here are three reasons he toasted the Indians.
1. Everything Was Down
Look at this. Scherzer threw just four of his 118 pitches in the top 1/4 of the zone and none of them were put in play. He didn’t hang breaking balls and he didn’t lose his delivery and start missing his spots.
2. His Fast Ball Was On
Not only did Scherzer have all four pitches working, but his fastball was particularly potent. The graph above shows the separation between his pitches by velocity and horizontal movement, but it’s also of note that his average fastball last night was an entire MPH faster (94.4 according to Pitch F/X, 95.8 according to BrooksBaseball) than his best average fastball so far this season (93.4 and 94.2 respectively). [Graph reflects Pitch F/X)
3. He Verlandered Them
Not only was Scherzer commanding his pitches and throwing harder, but he also got better as the game went on. His last pitch was his hardest fastball of the night, topping out at 98 MPH. You can see that he threw harder on average as the game went on as well with some of his best fastballs coming at the end of the game.
So while you didn’t need me to show you that Max Scherzer was great against the Indians on Tuesday, now you know why. He commanded his pitches well, his fastball was better than in previous starts, and he got better as the game went on. Scherzer is 4th in baseball in pitcher WAR with 2.3 so far and had his best start of the year last night.
Dynamic Standings Projection (May 22, 2013)
In case you missed it, last month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the May 21 games.
The Morning Edition (May 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Mike Trout hits for the cycle
- Leake strong as the Reds beat the Mets 4-0
- McClouth walks off against the Yanks
- Garza sharp in his season debut, but Snider slams the Cubs pen to give the Bucs the W
- Greinke gets roughed up over 4 innings in Milwaukee
What I’m Watching Today:
- Harvey versus Latos at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Gio and Bumgarner throw from the left side in SF (330p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee faces the Marlins (7p Eastern)
- Buchholz gets the White Sox (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is a 4th AL 3B trying to get involved in this race?
Last week I talked about how Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, and Manny Machado led the AL in WAR, but a new AL 3B has moved into the #4 spot: Josh Donaldson. As I write this, he’s hitting .315/.391/.530 with a 152 wRC+ an 2.1 WAR, which is 9th in MLB. He’s flashed solid potential before, but nothing quite like this. In 300+ previous big league at bats he was a below average walker and above average strikeout guy who didn’t hit for average of power. In the minors he had some reasonable success, but it wasn’t anything spectacular. Now in 2013, he’s crushing. His BABIP (.353) is elevated, but he’s shown a higher BABIP in various minor league stints so it’s not like it is guaranteed to regress dramatically. I left him out of my top 9 3B to start the year and I think I’m sticking with that, but for now, the best 3 players in the AL play 3B and one of them is Josh Donaldson.
How Was The Game? (May 21, 2013)
A masterpiece.
Tigers 5, Indians 1
The Tigers began the night trailing the Indians in AL Central and gave the ball to Max Scherzer (6-0, 62.1 IP, 3.61 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 2.3 WAR) to quiet the sizzling Tribe and to straighten out the Tigers staff. He did both with a brilliant performance in which he went 8 innings with 2 hits, 1 R, 1 BB, and 7 K including a string of 22 straight batters retired to end the night. It was the top of the Tigers lineup that did the trick in the 6th with a solo homerun from Dirks (and an RBI single in the 9th!) and a 2 run shot for the scorching hot Miguel Cabrera. It was everything the Tigers needed after a taxing, slugfest of a series in Arlington over the weekend. Scherzer was at his absolute best after the first inning and put the Indians down in order in every inning thereafter. They’ll look to sweep the short series tomorrow night behind Justin Verlander (4-4, 54 IP, 3.17 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 1.9 WAR) who will be in search of a bounce back start after struggling in Texas.
The Moment: Scherzer strikes out Stubbs to end the 8th and finish a string of 22 straight batters retired.
A Brief Note on Miguel Cabrera and Matt Tuiasosopo
In studying the Tigers offensive statistics so far, I spent some time looking into Jhonny Peralta, whom I have generally defended, but decided that his extremely good numbers so far (3rd in SS WAR) are driven somewhat by a high BABIP which isn’t very interesting.
Then I thought about writing about why Matt Tuiasosopo, the Tigers RH platoon OF, should play a little more but realized there isn’t really any extra PA for him unless you’re willing to bench Victor Martinez, whom I’m not giving up on at all.
Yet in the course of this perusal of Tuiasosopo’s numbers, something very amazing caught my eye. He’s crushing the ball, but that’s not what I mean. There is a belief, one which I share, that a baseball player can do pretty much anything across 60 plate appearances, or a 10 to 14 day stretch. Tuiasosopo has 51 PA at this moment in time. So I’m not shocked that he’s doing well. I’m shocked at how it compares to someone else on the team. First, for reference, he’s Tui’s line:
.366/.490/.561, 189 wRC+ (51 PA, 2 HR, 7 R, 15 RBI, 19.6% BB)
That’s excellent. It’s a small sample, but it’s excellent. He’s 89% better than league average at the plate so far this year. It won’t continue, but that isn’t the point. The point is that Tuiasosopo’s best 51 PA – his small sample peak – still don’t measure up to Miguel Cabrera’s entire season.
Cabrera’s line, despite covering 197 PA or a quarter of a season rather than 10%, is better. Here it is:
.387/.457/.659, 199 wRC+ (197 PA, 11 HR, 34 R, 47 RBI, 10.7% BB)
Cabrera isn’t getting on base at the same rate as Tuiasosopo, but he’s outslugging him by a lot. Cabrera is 99% better than league average at the plate this year. This post is meant to illustrate how awesome that is. Tuiasosopo is crushing the ball over a small sample and he still isn’t on Cabrera’s 200 PA pace (In Cabrera’s last 55 PA, he’s at 220 wRC+ BTW). That’s nuts.
Miguel Cabrera’s wRC+ for the season is better than Babe Ruth’s career wRC+. Now obviously that won’t continue. He won’t be Babe Ruth (although for a second I did actually think about removing the word “obviously”). But right now he’s outhitting everyone. Even great hitters. Even players who are having the best couple weeks of their lives.
Chris Davis is the next closest qualifier to Cabrera with a 182 wRC+. If you drop the threshold from qualified to 50 PA, Tuiasosopo is as close as anyone gets. To find someone with a higher wRC+ than Cabrera, you have to find your way to Matt Adams’ 43 PA.
And just for fun, even though it isn’t a meaningful number, over the last week Miguel Cabrera leads baseball with a 344 wRC+. It’s a small sample, but that’s just silly.
Miguel Cabrera has the 29th best career wRC+ of all time at 150. This is his peak. It has to be. The last three seasons have been his best three and this one looks like it might top them all. We may be watching one of the best dozen or so hitters of all time at his absolute best.
The Morning Edition (May 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Mariners blow two saves and the Indians only blow one in a wild one in Cleveland
- Dickey beats Odorizzi north of the border
- Hamels Ks 10 and walks none in a losing effort
- The White Sox get to Lester in Chicago
- Kershaw goes the distance, allows just one run against the Brewers
- Corbin dazzles at Coors with a CG, 10 Ks
What I’m Watching Today:
- Garza makes his season debut against the Pirates (7p Eastern)
- Alex Cobb goes for the Rays in Toronto (7p Eastern)
- Darvish welcomes the A’s to Arlington (8p Eastern)
- Greinke returns to Milwaukee (8p Eastern)
- Wainwright comes to Petco (10p Eastern)
- Strasburg and Cain face off at the bay (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- When do we start to notice Partick Corbin?
As I write this, Patrick Corbin is plowing through the 7th inning in Colorado and hasn’t allowed a run and has surrendered just a single hit (He finished with a CG, 3 H, 1 R, 10 K line). Entering the night, he was 6-0, 53.1 IP, 1.52 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.2 WAR and those numbers are going to get better. Granted, this level isn’t sustainable, but he’s pretty good and is throwing a gem in one of the hardest places to pitch. Also, Clayton Kershaw, just stop it. Another CG tonight.
The Strangest Career (and Worst Start) In Tigers History
I came across this tweet yesterday in reference to a major league game played on May 18, 1912 between the Tigers and the Philadelphia A’s. I read it and delivered this response:
And check it out I did. Gary Livacari at SABR has a very informative post about how it came to be that Travers ended up in a major league game. It, I kid you not, involves Ty Cobb assaulting a person who was handicapped with the president of the American League watching.
That aside, this 24 run affair from Travers is incredible. Now 1912 is 101 years ago and the records from that era are a bit spotty. No box score has survived for posterity so I only have some limited information about what happened.
Travers threw an 8 inning CG. He allowed 26 hits and 7 walks and struck out just 1. He allowed 24 runs but only 14 were earned thanks to a terrible defense. His ERA was 15.75. Now that isn’t the worst ERA you’ve ever seen in one appearance, but it’s bad.
Obviously 24 runs is an MLB record and only 19 pitchers have ever allowed 14 ER or more in a single appearance. Only one has allowed more than 26 hits in an appearance. Only 20 have ever walked 7 or more and struck out 1 or fewer.
Just days after his 20th birthday, Travers was put into a major league game he had no business being in and got toasted big time. We often see a reliever or a starter have a very short outing that results in a 27.00 ERA or something, but they get outs in their next appearance and the numbers balance out. But Travers never got the chance and his only major league appearance stands as a preposterously awful affair.
Granted, I’d take one MLB appearance no matter how terrible over no MLB appearances, so I don’t feel too bad. It’s just pretty remarkable that a situation unfolded in which a major league pitcher was allowed to give up 24 runs in an outing and that remains his only trip to a big league mound.
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