The Morning Edition (April 25, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Valdespin hits a walk off grand slam in Flushing against the Dodgers despite only needing one run
- Todd Frazier homers to power Latos and the Reds to a 1-0 win
- The Orioles lost an extra inning game!
- Strasburg goes 7 and gives up 3 runs, but it isn’t enough to avoid a sweep against the Cards
What I’m Watching Today:
- Cliff Lee gets the Pirates at home (1p Eastern)
- Buchholz looks to pad his stats against the Astros (630p Eastern)
- The Reds and Nats battle in what could be a playoff preview (7p Eastern)
- Hellickson and Sale hook up at U.S. Cellular Field (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Has anyone noticed David Wright this year?
Both of today’s observations concern the Mets, who walked off on Wednesday. First, David Wright is having a great start despite no one saying anything about him. He’s hitting .309/.447/.529 in 85 PA to go with a 176 wRC+. Seems like that should get more attention, but just having 2 homeruns is probably to blame even though he has 6 steals and that amazing line. Surprisingly also, Matt Harvey appeared to resemble a human being last night as he only went 6 innings and allowed 3 earned runs. That said, I mean, 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 10.03 K/9 is still pretty good.
How Was The Game? (April 24, 2013)
Not one for purists.
Tigers 7, Royals 5
It wasn’t pretty, but it was effective. The Tigers got ahead early, but Scherzer struggled in the 3rd inning and gave up 4 runs. The Tigers paid Wade Davis back and hung 7 runs on him and chased him after just 11 outs, so things evened out thanks to Cabrera, Martinez, and Peralta. The offense did their part, but Scherzer inconsistently worked through 5 and relied on his bullpen for the final four innings. Alburquerque and Benoit got the Tigers to the 9th, at which point it was time for the return of Jose Valverde, who Leyland put right back into the closer role without a second thought. The reception was mostly positive from the hometown crowd as he arrived to the mound for his first outing in 2013. He went to his fastball for all 18 pitches and got all three Royals he faced despite a long fly ball to Dirks for the final out. It seems fitting a game that featured 13 walks would end with a Valverde return to the 9th inning. He got the job done, but I didn’t see anything from him that makes me less concerned about his return. Verlander and Shields suit up tomorrow for the series finale at 1pm.
The Moment: Victor Martinez is thrown out by 30 feet at home plate in the 4th inning and decides to simply walk to the dugout instead of face a collision or slide at the plate. Tom Brookens is comforted by Gene Lamont.
Dynamic Standings Projection (April 24, 2013)
In case you missed it, earlier this month we launched our Dynamic Standings Projection feature on New English D. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here or by clicking the tab at the top of the page. This project seeks to provide a reasoned and cautious approach to updating our beliefs about the baseball future. You can find a summarization of the original projections here. You’ll notice a column on the far right that indicates the difference in projected wins from the preseason prediction. Positive numbers mean teams are now projected to win more games and negative numbers mean a team is now projected to win fewer games.
This Dynamic Standings Projection is updated through the April 23 games.
The Morning Edition (April 23, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Matt Moore dominates the Yankees, tosses 8 2-hit innings and strikes out 9 in a 5-1 win
- Miller and the Cards edge the Nats 3-2
- Felix and the Mariners handle the Astros
What I’m Watching Today:
- Wainwright looks to stay hot against Detwiler and the Nats (7p Eastern)
- Kershaw and Niese hook up in a battle of talented lefties (7p Eastern)
- Cain looks to straighten out against rookie standout Patrick Corbin (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Will we be watching the NL Cy Young today with Kershaw and Wainwright in action?
I was a big believer in Shin Shoo Choo going into the season from an offensive perspective. I thought he was exactly what the Reds needed. So far, that looks pretty good. The defense is hit and miss so far (-3.7 UZR), but here’s his line as of 10:12pm on April 22:
.371/.522/.614, .490 wOBA, 216 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
Not bad. He’s only reaching base more often that he is making outs. That’s not a valuable skill or anything. How’s he doing it? Well he’s a patient hitter in a good park, but he’s also been hit 10 times. The league leader was only hit 17 all of last season. He’s on pace for close to 80 HBP, which would be silly, but he’s going to have a lot. The record, should you be interested, belongs to Ron Hunt of the 1971 Expos. He was hit 50 times. Don Baylor was hit 35 times in 1986, which is second best. Choo might have a shot at that one.
The Morning Edition (April 22, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Zito carves up the Padres enroute to a 5-0 win
- Five Mets combine to shut out the Nats 2-0
- The Rays offense wakes up to punish the A’s in an 8-1 win
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller faces Dan Haren in a battle of pitchers going in opposite directions (7p Eastern)
- Sabathia and the Yankees travel to Tampa to face Matt Moore in the Rays in a battle of lefties (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez gets his first crack at the Astros in 2013 (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long can the Rockies exceed expectations?
The Tigers pitchers comfortably lead the entire league in FIP and WAR at 2.79 and 4.2, respectively, which is mostly due to their 2nd best K/9 and league best HR/9. But as you can also notice, their team ERA (3.81) is in the middle of the pack and they have allowed the highest BABIP (.326). All of this points to a pretty filthy pitching staff that could benefit from some better defense. They went a long time before they made their first error, but we’ve seen in recent games that they have a tendency not to make 50/50 plays. What’s remarkable about this? The bullpen isn’t actually a weakness.
Tigers Starters : 108 IP, 8.58 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, .327 BABIP, 3.42 ERA, 2.84 FIP
Tigers Relievers: 59.2 IP, 11.46 K/9, 4.68 BB/9, 0.45 HR/9, .324 BABIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Both groups lead their counterparts in WAR and FIP. The ‘pen walks more, but they make up for it by striking out more too. They allow homeruns at the same rate and allow the same batting average on balls in play. Their FIP are essentially the same. Their ERA is elevated, but that’s mostly outside of their control. Funny how that works out, we don’t need to panic.
How Was The Game? (April 21, 2013)
One they should have had.
Angels 4, Tigers 3
After two blowouts to open the series, the Tigers sent Doug Fister to the mound to salvage a win in LA and he was equal to the task on Sunday. Fister went 7 innings and held the Angels to 3 runs (2 earned), but those should all be unearned due to the official scorer calling something that was clearly an error on Cabrera a double. Fister didn’t get a ton of help from his defense, but he provided some of his own and limited the damaged that occurred due to errors and should-be errors. Wilson, on the other side, danced around trouble all day until Prince Fielder broke out in the 5th with a two run homerun to tie the game. Alburquerque entered in the 8th innings to relieve Fister and struck out the side which set up a failed scoring chance in the 9th in which the Tigers left the bases loaded four batters after a blown call at second cost them an out. Al-Al shut the Angels down in the 9th and sent this series finale into extra innings. Despite scoring opportunities, neither side could deliver a run until Mark Trumbo ended the game with a homerun to left field off Phil Coke in the 13 inning, Coke’s third inning of work. No one can blame the pitching for this one, as the defense and bats let the Tigers down in their attempt to win one in LA. The Tigers head home with a 9-9 record after going 4-5 on the roadtrip that ended with a sweep at the hands of the Angels. They’ll be in action again on Tuesday against the Royals behind Max Scherzer at Comerica Park.
The Moment: Trumbo walks off to sweep the Tigers in the 13th.
The Morning Edition (April 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox triumph over the Royals in their return to action, Big Papi says the f-word to celebrate, and Neil Diamond belts out “Sweet Caroline” at Fenway
- Hellickson outduels Parker as the Rays beat the A’s 1-0
- Harper homers twice as the Nats beat the Mets
What I’m Watching Today:
- Royals and Sox play two at Fenway, featuring prospect Allen Webster’s debut in the nightcap (130p and 7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann, coming off his first career CG, takes on the Mets at Citi (1p Eastern)
- Brandon McCarthy tries to right the ship after three rocky outings, but has to face the Rockies at Coors (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- How long until “This is our f-ing city” t-shirts starting selling outside Fenway? Six hours?
I promise this section will get more interesting once we have more that 15 games of information to talk about, and I’ll eventually stop referring to sample size, but one particular player who is near the top of the WAR leaderboard caught my eye; Brandon Crawford. The Giants shortstop is known for his glove, but his bat is doing some damage during the couple weeks of the season. In his career, he’s been a .240-.250 type hitter with very little power. In 696 plate appearances entering the season, he had 7 homeruns. He already has 3 in 68 as I write this. His .248/.304/.349 slash line last year was indicative of the type of player most people expect him to be. His wRC+ last year was 79. He’s not a black hole type hitter, but he relies on his glove. This season? This season he’s tearing the cover of the ball so far. He has 3 homeruns, but he’s also hitting .317/.397/.533, good for a 160 wRC+. He’s 5th in baseball in position player WAR at 10:53pm on April 20th. I’m not saying this means he’s going to be a good hitter going forward, not at all. It’s too early to suggest a given hitter is a new man, but I’m telling you he’s been crazy good so far this year. That’s remarkable in its own right. You want to know which players hit .310/.390/.530 or better in 2012? Trout, Braun, Posey, Cabrera, McCutchen. That’s it. That’s the whole list.
For the first three weeks of 2013, Brandon Crawford has hit like the top finishers in last year’s MVP races. Baseball is fun.
How Was The Game? (April 20, 2013)
Kind of a laugher.
Angels 10, Tigers 0
The Tigers lost their third straight game today and we can point to two distinct causes. First, the offense has really just not gotten anything going over the last few days. Second, Rick Porcello had one of the most hard luck innings you’ll ever see. He faced 11 hitters, gave up 9 hits, 1 walk, and 9 runs, retiring just two batters courtesy of the double play. At first, you wouldn’t really see how that qualifies as hard luck, but the Angels only hit two balls hard. The rest were weakly hit balls that just barely made it through the infield or died on the infield grass. Leyland mercifully pulled him after he surrendered the second hard hit ball, a grand slam to Trout, but it was too late for any justice for Porcello. It certainly wasn’t a great start, but it wasn’t nearly as bad as the box score indicates. Luckily for the Tigers, Drew Smyly was excellent in relief. He went 5.2 innings, allowed 4 hits and struck out 7 to really save the bullpen. The Angels and the Tigers both failed to do much else offensively and the game whimpered to its conclusion. You can imagine there will be Smyly versus Porcello speculation in the coming days, but it’s far too early to bail on your early season decisions. I’m a Porcello believer, but even if a change needs to be made eventually, you can’t make that call based on the information you have so far. The Tigers fall to 9-8 after today’s loss and lose their first series since the opening one in Minnesota. They’ll try to salvage one behind Doug Fister tomorrow.
The Moment: Mike Trout ends Porcello’s day with a grand slam to center.
The Nine Most Exciting Plays in Baseball
This week, inspired by a fan poll question on FSDetroit on Friday, New English D provides you with The Nine Most Exciting plays in baseball. Each of these are general in that they do not refer to a play that has occurred such as Gibson’s 1988 walk off, but rather plays such as “the inning ending double play.”
Only one of them features a specific game situation (#4), but each play is amplified by the situation. Consider them ranked based on how exciting they would, all else equal. A double play may be more exciting than a diving catch if the double play comes in the bottom of the 9th and the catch comes in the 3rd, but here we consider them context neutral with one obvious exception that will be clear when you read the list.
9. Inside the Park Homerun
Now this one is pretty low on my list compared to what most people tend to believe, but there is a very simple explanation. Almost every inside the park homerun is the result of a defensive misplay. Either a fielder overruns a ball or it takes a weird hop they weren’t anticipating. Rarely is it a feat of speed and guts. In a big park with a fast runner, it can be exciting, but you almost never see one that isn’t dumb luck.
8. Triple Play
My thoughts here are similar; most triple plays are just dumb luck. Usually they happen when the runners are trying to steal but the batter hits a line drive. That’s not really exciting, it’s more just interesting for its rarity. A true triple play is almost impossible and usually just a function of random happenstance. Triple plays are fun, but rarely very exciting because they aren’t terribly dramatic.
7. The Diving Catch
This is a pretty wide category, but diving catches are great because they build to a crescendo. There is the moment the ball is hit, then you think it’s going to be a hit, then you see the fielder closing fast, then you see him decide to dive, then there is a heart stopping moment in which you aren’t sure if he caught it. It’s a thrilling novel spread across less than five seconds.
6. The Do or Die Groundball
I like this one because it functions exactly like the diving catch, except it happens even faster and you have the added element of the bang-bang play at first. Not only do we suddenly realize the fielder might make a play, but we also have to see if the runner can beat the throw. Take the diving catch, narrow the time frame, and given the batter some agency and you’ve got the do or die.
5. Suicide Squeeze
If you aren’t familiar with the terminology, this is when the runner on third takes off for home on the pitch and the batter lays down a bunt to ensure the catcher doesn’t receive the baseball and tag him out. It sounds exciting enough, but the great part is that first second when you see the runner take off and immediately think, “Oh my goodness, what the heck is he doing?” You’re prefrontal cortex takes over after a second, but at the beginning of it, your brain just can’t process what’s happening. It’s pretty cool.
4. Walk-Off Homerun
Everything is better in walk off fashion because it decides the game, but the walk-off homerun gets special mention due to its utter decisiveness. It’s just a great moment.
3. Robbing a Homerun
Take the excitement of the homerun and then add in the excitement of the diving catch. You think it’s going to be a homerun and then all of a sudden it’s taken away. It’s difficult and rare, but its key feature is it takes you from high to low or low to high reaction in a matter of seconds.
2. Stealing Home
This has all the excitement of the suicide squeeze, but with none of the wimpy “bunting.” The baserunner literally thinks he can get to home before the catcher can receive the ball and tag him. All of the “what the heck?” moments from the squeeze apply, but we also get to factor in the chutzpah this requires.
1. Play at the Plate
The play at the plate is the most exciting play in baseball because it has everything. It includes risk by the baserunner, defensive skill by the outfielder, usually a bang-bang call, and it is punctuated by the fact that it can only result in an out or a run. You can see it developing a mile away, but you also hold your breath because you have no idea how it’s going to turn out. A lot of moving parts have to work and then you have to wait that half beat to see what the umpire calls. Just think about how exciting this would be if it came with two outs in the 9th inning of a tie game.
The Morning Edition (April 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Halladay holds the Cardinals to 2 runs in 7 innings in a 8-2 win
- Matt Harvey continues to dominate as he outduels Strasburg in a 7-1 win
- Jean Segura somehow steals first base in a 5-4 win over the Cubs (that was not a typo)
What I’m Watching Today:
- Buchholz and Shields face off as the Sox and Jays kick off their series after Friday’s cancellation (1p Eastern)
- Paul Maholm tries to keep his scoreless streak alive against the Bucs (7p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee and Lance Lynn toe the slab in Philly (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
While I’m repeatedly reminding you that small sample sizes can belie the truth, Matt Harvey is starting to look like one of the NL’s best starters. Certainly we can say he has been one of the best so far this season, but his success looks real and sustainable, even if it won’t be at this level. He looked very good in a handful of starts last season and the stuff is good. Let’s admire his numbers thus far. 4-0, 29IP, 9.93 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 0.93 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and a 1.0 WAR. That’s pretty good. As I write this, only Wainwright, Darvish, and Lester have higher pitcher WAR. Fun fact, Verlander, Sanchez, and Scherzer are right behind him. I didn’t include Harvey as one of the best pitchers in the NL going into the season, but man, I’m pretty sure I should have. Every five days, The Morning Edition is just going to become the Matt Harvey How’d He Do? Get used to it.
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