Revisiting The Nine Best Catchers for 2013
In the weeks leading up to the 2013 season, I unveiled my predictions for The Nine best players at each position. Some of the lists look good, some look terrible at this point, but that’s all part of the fun. Over the next two weeks leading up to the All-Star Game I will be revisiting these lists to see how things are going so far, around the halfway mark.
Obviously, the early evaluations will feature fewer than half a season and the later lists will feature a bit more, but try to think of these as the state of the position at the halfway mark. I’ll be using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to generate the rankings because it is the number that best captures the entire value of a player. It isn’t perfect, so don’t take the precise values too seriously, but it’s certainly the best way to make any type of holistic list. WAR values offense, defense, baserunning, and playing time, so it represents exactly what I was trying to capture when I made the rankings during Spring Training.
Here’s how this will work. Below, you’ll see all nine players I ranked in the preseason and any player who currently ranks in the top 9 at that position. The current ranking drives the order and the preseason ranking and their current WAR is noted. Hit, miss, and push distinctions are based on where their first half places them going forward. For example, I can miss on a player even if I expect them to play much better in the second half if their first half was so poor that it is impossible to make up the ground overall.
Let’s start with catchers! Here’s the original post for you to refer to: The Nine Best Catchers for 2013. (Numbers reflect start of play on June 22).
57. Ryan Hanigan, Reds (Preseason Rank: 9, 2013 WAR: 0.0 WAR)
Hanigan made my original list largely based on his excellent defensive work and his ability to get on base. The defense has been strong as usual, but his .278 OBP has been horrible, especially compared to his .365 mark a year ago. As a result of his poor offense, he’s receiving much less playing time than I expected and isn’t accumulating much value. I don’t think he’ll be replacement level the entire year, but it’s likely too late for him to make any sort of run at a top nine spot. MISS
51. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (Preseason Rank: 7, 2013 WAR: 0.1 WAR)
Ruiz missed the first 25 games with a suspension, which I knew about going into the season, so I anticipated his value would be backloaded. However, he also got hurt and has only appeared in 19 games to date with 67 PA. He hasn’t played well in that span, but that’s such a small sample that it’s really too hard to tell how he’ll play for the whole season now that he has come off the DL. Even if he matches his career year pace the rest of the way, I think it will be pretty hard for him to crack the top 9, much less be number 7. I expect him to play like a top 10-12 catcher for the rest of the season, but this is an accumulation list and that doesn’t do me much good. MISS
49. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (Preseason Rank: 4, 2013 WAR: 0.1)
Montero was a pretty safe pick coming into the season, but while his walk rate is still very good the batting average and power have vanished. He’s actually making more contact, but it is, evidently, weaker contact. He’s hitting more balls on the ground than he used to, but the line drive rate is pretty consistent. I’m optimistic that he’ll break out of this, especially because of his home ballpark, but it’s pretty unlikely he can make it to #4 on the list under any circumstances. He’s not this bad, but he’s not as good as I said either. MISS
19. Matt Wieters, Orioles (Preseason Rank: 6, 2013 WAR: 0.9 WAR)
Wieters looked like he was on track to finally become the star player he was billed as coming up in Baltimore, but pretty much every part of his offensive game has taken a big step back this year. The average is down, the walk rate is down, and so is the power. His defense is still excellent, but a .288 OBP isn’t something you can wash away with a nice UZR. From the right side of the plate, he’s been very good, but he spends most of his time hitting left-handed. It might be time to think about bagging the switch hitter thing if this keeps up. MISS
18. Brian McCann, Braves (Preseason Rank: 8, 2013 WAR: 0.9)
McCann’s numbers are in line with what I expected from him. No longer a star player, but still a better than league average hitter who players catcher and does so reasonably well. He missed time to start the season, but appears to be back and healthy now. If he keeps up this pace, he’ll be right around where I figured he’d be. I’m not ready to call this a hit, but it’s certainly not a miss. PUSH
11. Salvador Perez, Royals (Preseason Rank: 5, 2013 WAR: 1.2)
All of Perez’s numbers are very good, especially for a 23 year old, except for his walk rate, which is under 3%. The average is good, the power is good, the defense is excellent. I banked on him developing his approach to some degree this year, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. He’s a very good player (I bet Harold Reynolds loves him because he thinks walks are outs in disguise), but he’s not a top 5 catcher until he learns some patience. I’m going to call this a push, because he’s less than a win away from the spot I pegged him for and some of those guys are overachieving. We’ll revisit this after the season is over. PUSH
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.3)
Salty was part of a couple of high profile trades and it’s taken him a while to grown into a solid big leaguer, but the power is real even if he has a problem with strikeouts. His OBP is better this year than in the past and that’s probably going to regress a bit, but it is possible he is starting to figure it out. I don’t think he’s going to be a top 10 catcher the rest of the way, but he’s certainly lined up for a respectable season. PUSH
8. A.J. Ellis, Dodgers (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.6)
Ellis broke out last year and is reproducing his excellent approach at the plate, which puts him in line for a great OBP. His defense is looking better but the power has ticked down a bit so he’s probably not going much higher than this. I had him just outside the top nine, so I’m feeling very good about this one. HIT
7. Jason Castro, Astros (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
Castro has always had a fairly good approach, and the batting average has trended up every season, but this year the power has broken out and it is certainly his carrying tool. He’s never had 300 PA at the MLB level, so it’s a bit of an unknown on a bad team, but I think he’s certainly better than I thought at the beginning of the season. I think he’s going to be an average catcher and I’d have put him around the middle entering the season. PUSH
6. Carlos Santana, Indians (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.8)
I had Santana literally right outside the top 9 going into the season and agonized between him and Hanigan, who I love on defense. Santana has a great approach and great power and can be counted on for above average power and OBP, but he has stepped from a 120 wRC+ guy to a 140 wRC+ guy this year which is enough to take his iffy defense from 10th best catcher to top 6 catcher so far. I’m banking on him falling back on this list, just slightly, such that he’ll be right around the 8-10 range. HIT
5. Evan Gattis, Braves (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 1.9)
Gattis doesn’t give you a great OBP and scouts say he is likely overperforming in that regard, but the power is absolutely incredible and he mashes lefties. Gattis has already provided more value than I had him pegged for entering the year, so it’s an obvious miss, but I’m not so sure he can provide more than another 1-1.5 wins the rest of the way. MISS
4. Russell Martin, Pirates (Preseason Rank: N/A, 2013 WAR: 2.4)
Yeah, so Martin has always been a good defender and had a nice approach, but his strikeouts were trending up and his average was trending down over the last several years and the power had been inconsistent. But it’s all coming back. This calls for a graph:
I hope you can forgive me for not seeing this Russell Martin coming. Nice sign by the Bucs. MISS
3. Buster Posey, Giants (Preseason Rank: 1, 2013 WAR: 2.8)
Posey is a great player having an excellent season. He’s not 2012 Buster Posey, but that’s a career season. He’s striking out less and is still above average to great at everything except running. HIT
2. Joe Mauer, Twins (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.1)
Mauer, too, is a great player having a great season. His major question mark lately has been health and that hasn’t been an issue so far. High average, excellent approach, and the power has even bounced back to go along with his nice defense and excellent game calling. It’s not his fault no one else on his team is any good. HIT
1. Yadier Molina, Cardinals (Preseason Rank: 3, 2013 WAR: 3.6)
Molina has always been an unquestionable great defensive player who could probably hit .150 and still be worth rostering, but over the last few years he has made the leap to MVP by turning himself into a great hitter too. Catcher defense is not fully appreciated with UZR and DRS, but even without giving him enough credit for his defense he’s still a top player in baseball this year thanks to this offensive adjustment:
Not bad. HIT
Check back for more The Nine updates featuring the other positions. How will these lists look come October? Sounds off in the comments section.
The Morning Edition (June 21, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wright homers twice, but the Mets lose Niese in win against the Braves
- Longoria’s 2 HR lift the Rays over the Yanks
- Zimmermann dominates the Rockies, but Oswalt gets 11 K of his own as Nats win 5-1
- Pena walks off on the Crew in 10
- Another Puig HR
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg looks to build on a solid first start back (7p Eastern)
- Cole goes to LA to face Weaver (10p Eastern)
- Clayton Kershaw faces similarly named Clayton Richard (10p Eastern)
- Colon and Iwakuma (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Who would you honor with the NL All-Star start?
There are a number of good candidates depending on what statistics you value:
WAR:
Wainwright, Harvey, Lee, and Kershaw
FIP:
Harvey, Wainwright, Miller, Kershaw, Lee
ERA:
Kershaw, Locke (!), Miller, Harvey, Corbin, Wainwright, Zimmermann
K/9:
Miller, Burnett, Samardjiza, Harvey, Lynn
Wins (LOL!):
Wainwright, Lee, Corbin, Zimmermann, Lynn, and Marquis
Wainwright is probably having the best season, but I’d be completely happy with Harvey given that the game is at Citi Field and he’s one of the game’s brightest young stars. Kershaw, Lee, and Miller are all very deserving as well. Right now, I’d go with Waino or Harvey. You?
The Morning Edition (June 20, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Bruce ties it in the 9th and Phillips wins it in the 13th as the Reds beat the Bucs 2-1
- Myers drives in his first two to lead the Rays over the Sox
- Medlen shuts down the Mets
- Papelbon allows the Nats to tie it in the 9th, Suzuki delivers a GS in the 11th
- Yanks and Dodgers split a DH
What I’m Watching Today:
- Oswalt returns to the bigs with the Rockies against Zimmermann (7p Eastern)
- Moore and Pettitte at Yankees stadium (7p Eastern)
- Felix Hernandez faces the Angels (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- After 8 straight wins, are the Blue Jays getting back in this?
I’m doubtful despite the hot streak. Despite 8 straight wins, they are still 7.5 games back of first place and 4.5 back of the second wild card. That isn’t a number too big to overcome, but the problem is how many teams are between them and their goal. To make up the terrible start, they would have to outplay at least two other teams the rest of the way plus the distance they are already back. I’m not sure they are good enough. Fangraphs’ own standings projection is equally skeptical of the Jays, figuring them for 82 wins. New English D has them at 83 wins, and I feel pretty good about that. One week in June isn’t enough to convince me the first 10 weeks didn’t happen.
The Morning Edition (June 17, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Strasburg erratic, but decent in loss against Kluber’s 8 IP, 8K
- Nieuwenhuis walks off on Marmol, lifts Mets
- Blanks homers late to back Richard and the Padres to their 6th straight win
- Iwakuma struggles as Colon rolls, A’s win 10-2
- The Angels get 5 in the 9th, but Pujols Ks with the tying run on 2nd to lose to the Yanks
- 3 HR lift Wang and the Jays over the Rangers
- Astros sweep the White Sox
- Greinke struggles in first start since brawl, falls to Pirates and Cole
- Lester Ks 8, walks 0 despite giving up 5 ER in 5 innings
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby “Must-Watch” Miller faces the Cubs (7p Eastern)
- Liriano faces Leake for NL Central glory (7p Eastern)
- Turner and Corbin in the desert (930p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- What should we think of the Padres?
I ranked the Padres 22nd coming into the season and 26th and 27th entering May and June in the New English D power rankings, but here they come in the standings with 6 straight wins and the team above .500 to 35-34 and just 2 back in the West. I was bullish on them coming into the season, but the pitching was pretty bad and I sort of gave up. They’re dead last in WAR (-1.9) and in the bottom 3 in park adjusted ERA, FIP, and xFIP. And they haven’t really gotten better in the last few weeks despite going 17-12 over their last 19. They’re surprisingly 5th in position player WAR, but you can’t compete at the big league level with pitching that bad.
The Morning Edition (June 16, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Felix throws 7 shutout innings to blank the A’s
- Lance Lynn gives up 7 runs in 5 innings to the Marlins, gets a W
- Cobb is struck in the head with a line drive, Rays win
- Freeman walks off on the Giants
- The bullpen coughs up a Kershaw gem, but wins in extras
What I’m Watching Today:
- Strasburg comes off the DL to face NERD darling Corey Kluber (1p Eastern)
- Lester tries to get back on track versus the O’s (130p Eastern)
- Greinke against Cole in Pittsburgh (130p Eastern)
- CC and Weaver face off in LA (330p Eastern)
- Iwakuma and Colon in Oakland (4p Eastern)
- Ian Kennedy tries to go an entire game without committing a felony (4p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Do we live in a world where Iwakuma and Colon is the most intriguing pitching matchup?
So I’m pretty up and up on which players are having the best seasons and wasn’t expecting to be surprised, but here we are, with Hunter Pence at #12 among position players with a 3.0 WAR. Now Pence isn’t a bad player, but he’s generally been a 2-4 win player in his career with a high water mark of 4.4 in 2011. He’s already 2/3 of the way there in just 67 games. He’s had this type of offensive season before (139 wRC+) but he’s never hit this well during a good defensive season and he’s never run the bases this well according to the advanced metrics. If he keeps this up, he’ll get a nice lump of money from an organization that doesn’t care about a below average walk rate. And…the Phillies have already signed him to a 5 year deal…
The Morning Edition (June 15, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Chris Sale went 8 innings, allowed 0 ER, and struck out 14. Against the Astros. He lost.
- Buehrle looks good, blanks the Rangers over 7
- Bumgarner is brilliant against the Braves, 10K
- Fernandez K’s 10 to beat the Cards
- Dusty Baker actually used Chapman in a non-save situation, helping Jay Bruce homer the Reds to victory
- Moore struggles in loss to the Royals (about to lose Appointment TV status)
- The Indians walk off the Nats, Masterson K’s 10
What I’m Watching Today:
- Kershaw pitches at PNC (4p Eastern)
- Cobb faces the Royals (4p Eastern)
- Felix tries to slow the A’s (7p Eastern)
- Zimmermann vs Kazmir (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Are we still even keeping track of wins after what happened to Sale tonight?
Chris Sale went the distance, gave up no earned runs, and struck out 14 Astros and lost. Basically, you can give up 7 ER in 7 IP and get a win and give up 0 ER in 8 innings and lose. So these make sense. But much more notably, MLB handed down suspensions for the Dbacks and Dodgers brawl today and kept it pretty toothless. Belesario threw punches and got one game. Ian Kennedy got 10 games, but he’s only going to miss one start. The managers only got one game. It doesn’t look like MLB wants to curb this behavior, even thought it’s essentially felonious. Other than that, I just have to plug Rick Porcello again, because he’s turning into a star.
The Morning Edition (June 14, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Wainwright and Harvey don’t disappointed, combining for 14 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 3 BB, and 13 K as the Cards win 2-1
- The Cubs walk off the Reds in 14
- Parker and Kuroda pitch to a draw, the A’s win in 18
- Cain gives the Giants 6.2 scoreless as they beat the Pirates
- Tulo likely facing a “lengthy absence” after breaking rib
What I’m Watching Today:
- Matt Moore tries to avoid being dropped from the Appointment Television list against the Royals (7p Eastern)
- Westbrook comes of the DL to face Fernandez (7p Eastern)
- Bumgarner and Medlen in ATL (7p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe our marquee matchup last night lived up to the hype?
After yesterday’s duel, Adam Wainwright (4.0) and Matt Harvey (3.3) are 1st and 3rd in pitcher WAR, only separated by Anibal Sanchez (3.4). In fact, Wainwright and Harvey are the only two pitchers in the top five who don’t play for the Tigers. It is perhaps worth noting that Wainwright and Harvey are excellent examples as to why the pitcher wins statistic is not useful for evaluating performance. Wainwright has a 2.18 ERA and 1.78 FIP. Harvey has a 2.04 ERA and 2.15 FIP. Harvey leads in K/9, Wainwright leads in BB/9 and HR/9, but both are great in each category. By all reasonable accounts, Wainwright and Harvey are two of the top few pitchers in the league. But Wainwright is 10-3 and Harvey is 5-1. Among the pitchers with more wins than Harvey is Jason Hammel, who features a 5.24 ERA, 5.09 FIP, and 0.4 WAR. Pitcher won-loss record is nonsense.
And now, because they’re awesome:
The Morning Edition (June 13, 2013)
From Last Night:
- Clete Thomas goes 4-4 as the Twins beat the Phils
- Miller K’s 10 but gives up 4 as the Cards fall to the Mets
- The Pirates outslug the Giants 12-8
- Frazier homers to lift Leake over Wood and the Cubs
- The Angels beat the O’s despite an 0-5 from Trout
What I’m Watching Today:
- WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY. WAINWRIGHT AND HARVEY (1p Eastern)
- Guys, Wainwright and Harvey!
- Latos versus Sharky (1p Eastern)
- Darvish faces the Jays again (8p Eastern)
- Cliff Lee heads to Minnesota (8p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Is Wainwright and Harvey a Cy Young battle?
That’s a bit of a misnomer, but it’s easily one of the top duels we’ve seen so far this season even if it won’t actually determine who wins the Cy Young. But it should inform who gets to start the All-Star Game. Verlander and Darvish was close as far as how each pitcher had performed up to that point, but not quite. Let’s look at the big one tomorrow:
Wainwright: 9-3, 93 IP, 2.34 ERA, 1.75 FIP, 3.8 WAR
Harvey: 5-0, 90 IP, 2.10 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 3.0 WAR
The two starters are 26th and 9th in K/9, 1st and 22nd in BB/9, 8th and 5th in ERA, 1st and 3rd in FIP, 2nd and 6th in xFIP, and 1st and 4th in WAR in MLB. So yeah, that’s pretty good. Watch it. And while you’re waiting for that one to start, check out New English D’s newest feature: New English D Audio.
The Morning Edition (June 12, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Dbacks and Dodgers trade serious beanballs, brawl in LA, many suspensions to come
- Cole goes 6.1 in his MLB debut as the Pirates beat the Giants
- The Jays tie it in the 9th and win it in the 10th against the White Sox
- Kluber goes 8 to end the Indians’ skid
- Cingrani and the Reds unload on Garza and the Cubs
- Stanton homers in the 8th to avoid spoiling Turner’s strong outing
- Rays shell Lester
- Harang CGSO
What I’m Watching Today:
- Shelby Miller goes to Citi Field (7p Eastern)
- Corbin and Ryu in LA (10p Eastern)
- Bonderman gets the Astros in Seattle (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- So, no hard feelings between the Dodgers and Dbacks?
Hardly the case. Greinke hit Ross early in the game (not intentional at all), but things heated up when Kennedy hit Puig in the 6th and Greinke retaliated by hitting Montero in the 7th. Greinke came to the plate in the 7th and Kennedy hit him in the head, precipitating a massive bench clearing brawl that featured grown men tackling each other and punches being thrown. I’ve been pretty outspoken about the need to curtail this type of behavior in baseball. I wasn’t watching the game, so I don’t know which pitch was the one that started it, but everyone carries some blame for keeping it going. I hope MLB suspends everyone involved because there is just no place for this in the game. Intentional beaning is dangerous and childish, especially when it’s up around the head, but it’s even more ridiculous for adults to run onto the field and start fighting. I have no problem with certain members of the teams coming out to talk and yell about it, but it’s not appropriate to settle these things with violence. If this happened somewhere other than the field of play, there would be arrests. It reflects poorly on the sport, even if people enjoy it.
The Morning Edition (June 11, 2013)
From Last Night:
- The Red Sox and Rays enter into Game of the Year territory (see below)
- Bailey rolls over the Cubs with 8 innings, 0 ER
- A fog delay at US Cellular
- Another Kershaw-y Kershaw start
What I’m Watching Today:
- Gerrit Cole makes his MLB debut against the Giants (7p Eastern)
- Lester starts after Monday’s marathon game (7p Eastern)
- Turner tries to stay hot in Miami (7p Eastern)
- Wacha against the Mets (7p Eastern)
- CC and Colon in Oakland, I’ll leave the jokes to you (10p Eastern)
The Big Question:
- Can you believe that game in Tampa last night?
So here’s what happened, briefly. Alex Cobb started and got shelled. 6 run first. But the Rays clawed back. 2 in the first and 1 in each of the 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th. 6-6. In the 10th, the Sox got two to take the lead, then Andrew Bailey had the meltdown to end all meltdowns and sent it hurling forward deeper into the night. It ended, finally, when Nava singled home Victorino in the 14th and the Sox added another for good measure. Just for reference, one of the more incredible win expectancy graphs you will ever see:




