How Was The Game? (August 12, 2013)
A loss, but with one heck of an exclamation mark.
White Sox 6, Tigers 2
The Tigers got to Chris Sale for two early runs courtesy of a Cabrera bomb and a Pena double, but a 3 run 5th inning doomed Doug Fister (24 GS, 155 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.2 WAR) and the Tigers thanks to a couple of goofy plays and some poorly timed control issues from Fister. He didn’t pitched terribly, going 6 innings and allowing 4 runs, but after three strong innings to start the game he played in traffic for most of the night. The bats had a great chance to get to Sale in the 6th as Cabrera and Fielder hit back to back hard singles, but a FC by Martinez and a fly out to the wall in center by Tuiasosopo kept the Tigers from cashing in. The story, however, was a ridiculous play by Jose Iglesias. Here is a link to a video and here is a link to a GIF (h/t @Sporer). Below is a screen shot of the basic concept. It was stupid good.
The loss is the Tigers 3rd in the last 4 games, but after a stretch where they won 16 of 17, one can’t be too upset. They’ll turn around and send Max Scherzer (23 GS, 158.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.8 WAR) to the mound for game two on Tuesday.
The Moment: Jose Iglesias does something that the author has a difficult time describing.
Victor Martinez’s 2013 Season Explained Graphically
We’re all pretty clear on the basic structure of Victor Martinez’s 2013 season. His numbers were bad during the first few months and then he started having excellent numbers and now his season long stats are all pretty solid. I argued earlier this season that Martinez was getting supremely unlucky and those claims were supported when Martinez started crushing it.
I’d like to update you on his pace with a few graphics. I don’t have any crack analysis because I’ve already done that part. His numbers were bad, I told you why. His numbers got better, I told you why. Now I just want to show you a full picture with a few graphics. Enjoy!
First we have his average, on base, and slugging percentage at the end of every game. Since above game 70, he’s been incredible and pulled out of his early season slide:
If you drop a line at game 70 and split the numbers, he was not very good beforehand and is a borderline MVP after. The cutoff is arbitrary, but there are more than 200 PA on each side. Let’s check out his monthly splits by OPS, wOBA (what’s wOBA?), and wRC+ (what’s wRC+?).
Like I said in the first citation, his bad luck on hard hit balls is regressing amazingly to the mean in his batting average on balls in play (what’s BABIP?). I drew in his career average to show exactly how amazing it is. Perfect balance:
Martinez was having bad luck and now he’s not anymore. The two links at the top of the post break it down and these graphs sum it up. Martinez was having a lousy season as far as results went, but then the hits started to fall and he’s come racing back. We always knew they would because he’s been near the top of the hard hit average leaderboard and stands at 6th in MLB entering the day. He’s now having an above average season overall (102 wRC+) and is still on the rise.
How Was The Game? (August 11, 2013)
Something you’re not going to believe.
Yankees 5, Tigers 4
It’s unclear where to start, so let’s just lay it all out. Justin Verlander (25 GS, 158.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.5 WAR) gave up 4 runs in 7 innings, but had a very nice afternoon courtesy of a good fastball and excellent curveball that yielding just 1 walk and induced 9 strikeouts. Verlander gave up two solo homeruns which barely cleared the short fences at Yankee Stadium and would have been easy outs in more parks, so I certainly won’t hold that against him when attempting to discern performance from statistics. The signs were all good regarding his road back to dominance as his average fastball registered 95.3 mph and his release point was in line with his most recent start.
The bats failed the Tigers early as they left a ton of men on base and gave away outs at inopportune times, but things turned late. It didn’t help that Iglesias was called out at 2B in the 8th when he was clearly safe or that Jackson made a boneheaded mistake in thinking Garder dropped a ball in the next at bat but a Pena homer to lead off the 8th and a Cabrera homerun off Rivera in the 9th to make it a one run game set up a huge bomb by Martinez to tie it against Rivera for the second time this weekend. It was a great comeback, but it was for naught as Gardner walked off in the 9th. The Tigers will head to the Windy city for a three game set against the Sox with Doug Fister (23 GS, 149 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 3.2 WAR) getting the ball on Monday.
The Moment: Cabrera and Martinez launch homers in the 9th to stun Rivera.
More Exciting News From New English D
So I know we just went through this three days ago, but I’m excited to announce that I’ve joined Gammons Daily as a regular contributor, which is a site surrounding Peter Gammons’ baseball writing and devoted to unfiltered analysis from some of the country’s best. It’s only a couple weeks old and is a partnership between Gammons and TruMedia that should eventually feature some of their analytic tools. I’ll be writing there once or twice a week in addition to my weekly work at Beyond The Box Score. Like I said on Thursday, none of New English D’s Tigers coverage will be affected and you’ll only notice a slight reduction in MLB coverage here to accommodate the transition.
I hope you’ll check out Gammons Daily, follow my work around the web, and continue to engage with me on Twitter. Check out my first piece for the site, on the Tigers own Max Scherzer.
How Was The Game? (August 10, 2013)
Another breezy win.
Tigers 9, Yankees 3
After surrendering their 12 game winning streak on Friday in extra innings, the Tigers handled the Yankees easily on Saturday. They won the war on both fronts as Anibal Sanchez (20 GS, 125.2 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.41 FIP, 4.2 WAR) was excellent across 7 innings (4 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 8 K) and the bats sent Hughes to the showers early. The Tigers first three hitters all homered during the game and 5 players reached base at least twice. Jackson stayed hot, Cabrera stayed hot, and Hunter, Kelly, and Iglesias also did things that improved the team’s chances of winning. It was never really in doubt as the Tigers won their 17th game in their last 19 tries and improved to 69-46 on the season. They will look to take the series on Sunday with the newly himself Justin Verlander (24 GS, 151.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.5 WAR), who lowered his ERA between starts thanks to a scoring change.
The Moment: Cabrera turned on a Hughes pitch and sent it out to left field.
How Was The Game? (August 9, 2013)
The end of a great run.
Yankees 4, Tigers 3 (10 innings)
It had to end sometime. Logic dictated that. You can’t win every game and the longer your streak goes the more improbable it gets. After 12 straight victories and a figurative funeral for the rest of the division, the Tigers finally lost on Friday. Rick Porcello (21 GS, 125 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 2.3 WAR) was solid, and a Robinson Cano double on a pretty good changeup was the difference between a very good start and a pretty good one. He only went 5 innings but struck out 6, walked 2, and surrendered 3 runs. On most nights, that’s good enough for the Tigers offense but Ivan Nova escaped a few jams against the Tigers, who only cashed in with the starter in the game during the 7th inning on a Cabrera single. Jackson had a good night, but the Tigers simply didn’t get hits with men on base, which is going to happen from time to time and especially when you’ve just completed the type of run the Tigers went on. It got extremely interesting, however, when Miguel Cabrera launched a 2 out, 2 run, game-tying homerun to dead center off Rivera and sent the game into extras. Despite the amazing turn of events, the Yankees rallied against Alburquerque in the 10th while Benoit sat alone in the bullpen waiting for a save that would never come. The streak is over, but the Tigers have still won 16 of their last 18 games and saw the Indians fall on the out of town scoreboard so they will remain 7 up in the Central with 48 to play. They’ll play a matinee at Yankee Stadium with Anibal Sanchez (19 GS, 118.2 IP, 2.58 ERA, 2.37 FIP, 4.1 WAR) on the bump.
The Moment: Cabrera hits a game tying homerun with two outs in the 9th against Mariano Rivera
Joaquin Benoit: Evolution of a Reliever
This post will make no further reference to Joaquin Benoit being the Tigers’ closer. I don’t believe in the closer myth and would rather run the bullpen much differently. That said, good relief pitching is important and having and using good relievers is essential to success. One of the key cogs in the current Tigers bullpen, Benoit, is having a great season and deserves some credit.
Let’s start with some particulars from 2013. He’s thrown 47 IP with a 1.53 ERA, 2.15 FIP, and 1.5 WAR. Those three marks are 9th, 14th, and 15th among qualified MLB relievers this year. By our own reliever stat, SOEFA, he ranks 7th among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. By all accounts, he’s having a great year and you know he’s had great years in the past.
This isn’t a particularly groundbreaking analysis piece, but rather more a recognition that Benoit was become a very good reliever and has been good for a pretty long time. Let’s start from 2006 when he became a full time relief pitcher and work forward. And let’s start with ERA, FIP (what’s FIP?), and xFIP (what’s xFIP?) and lets park adjust them because he’s played in a few different stadiums that are somewhat extreme. These numbers are easy to understand. 100 is league average during each season and a point below or above is a percent better or worse than average. The lower the better, just like ERA. Note that he missed 2009 with an injury:
You can see he’s been above average for the most part in his entire relief career. 2010 was his golden season, but 2013 is pretty darn close. For a reliever, strikeouts and walks are key and he’s made some nice gains over time:
2008 is obviously the outlier, probably due to the coming injury, but overall the BB rate came down in a big way compared to before the injury and the strikeout rate has steadily risen. He’s cut his HR rate quite a bit this year, but that’s mostly a fluky small sample thing which will regress up a bit, but not so much that it will dramatically shift the results. Across the board, there aren’t a ton of other underlying numbers that have my attention except for the one that’s about to come.
Something I noticed in Jose Veras when the Tigers traded for him was that he’s getting ahead of hitters with first pitch strikes. Benoit is working the zone early too:
Since the rotator cuff injury, he has gotten better. Some of that might be maturity and between his ears, but some could be a health factor. Benoit has taken a step forward as he’s aged despite most relievers having a short shelf life. The ability to throw strikes is critical to a reliever’s success and Benoit is getting better at it early in counts. He’s not hitting the zone more, he’s just doing it earlier. That’s very valuable thing. His velocity improved after the injury, but it’s been constant since. I’m interested in the movement. The top charts (H/T FanGraphs) are 2008 and the bottom are 2013:
You can see more consistency and separation in his pitches. He’s better. More first pitch strikes, more consistent pitches, more strikeouts, fewer walks, and better overall results. Benoit’s been a very good reliever for what’s going on quite a few seasons. In over 400 MLB innings since the start of 2006, he has an ERA- of 73 and FIP- of 77.
And he’s heading onto the open market next season with the shine of a big season. He’s done that before and it paid him nicely.
How Was The Game? (August 8, 2013)
Everything you could ever want, and then some.
Tigers 10, Indians 3
So I’m going to get right to it. Yes Max Scherzer (23 GS, 158.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 2.69 FIP, 4.8 WAR) was excellent and yes the Tigers scored 10 runs, but the story of this game came in the waning moments when Ryan Raburn came trotting in from the Indians’ bullpen. Ryan Raburn pitched in an MLB game which is the confluence of just about everything I love about baseball. I love Raburn because he’s the most dynamic player I’ve ever seen. He could hit a game winning homerun or he could trip down the stairs and injure the starting pitcher. The range of outcomes is so wide and so amazing. He’s a utility man, which I love. And he’s a player who fans didn’t like, which made me love him more. And then of course the simple fact that he was a position player called on to pitch, which is just about my favorite thing in the world anyway. Against his former team. A 1-2-3 inning. With a strikeout. On this day, the Tigers ran over the Indians for their 12 straight win, 16th in their last 17, and pushed their lead over the Indians to a seemingly insurmountable 7 games. It was their fourth straight sweep. It’s all going right these days, and we got to see Raburn pitch. Baseball, you guys. Baseball. The Tigers will hop a plain to the Big Apple and will give the ball to Rick Porcello (20 GS, 120 IP, 4.28 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 2.1 WAR) in game one on Friday.
The Moment: Ryan Raburn pitched.
Can The Tigers Win 15 Straight Games?
Winning streaks are so in right now. The Braves have won 13 games in a row and pushed their insane August-division lead to 15.5 games in the NL East. That looks like a typo even though I know it’s a fact. The Tigers, for their part, have won 11 straight baseball games and are 6 games up on the very solid Cleveland Indians. Winning is exciting and doing it a bunch of times in a row is compelling and interesting.
We’ll leave aside the Braves and focus on the Tigers because, well, this is a Tigers site. Let’s establish some basics. The Tigers record for consecutive wins is 14. The AL record is 20 by the 2002 A’s. The MLB record is 21 from the 1935 Cubs. The Tigers are currently at 11.
What are the odds they get to the record(s)?
Let’s start with the team record because that’s the one we can really dig into because we know the pitching matchups. The Tigers have one game against the Indians (108 wRC+) and then three against the Yankees (81 wRC+). The Indians have a good offense and the Yankees have a bad one. That was easy. Let’s take a look at the matchups:
- Scherzer at McAllister (3.47 ERA, 3.81 FIP)
- Porcello at Nova (3.08 ERA, 2.97 FIP)
- Sanchez at Hughes (4.87 ERA, 4.67 FIP)
- Verlander at Pettitte (4.71 ERA, 3.90 FIP)
McAllister has been successful at preventing runs and his peripherals generally support that. Nova’s been pitching well across the board. Hughes has had some trouble and he’s a mess at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte’s pitched better than his ERA, but he has to pitch in front of that defense so when we’re talking about team wins and losses the runs matter even if they aren’t Pettitte’s fault.
So what can we infer from the pitching matchups and offensive numbers that we can incorporate into our expectations? Not too much. Most individual baseball games are unpredictable. McAllister is tough matchup, Nova is pitching well. Hughes gives up homers in a small park and Pettitte is left handed. All in all that’s pretty balanced. Nothing on the page tells me the Tigers are especially favored in any of the games.
So what are the odds. Let’s use a simple formula. The Tigers have won 59.8% of their games. Indians at 54.4%. Yankees at 50.4%. These numbers are based on playing the whole league and not other reasonable good clubs. So I’ll undersell the Tigers’ advantage. Let’s say they have a 52% chance of winning any individual game against another team.
If we give them a 52% chance and assume that winning one game doesn’t change the likelihood of winning the next game, the Tigers have a 7.3% chance of winning the next four games.
But under those same conditions the odds of winning 11 in a row up to this point is a staggering 0.075%. The odds of a 15 game streak is 0.006%. Basically, they’ve done the hard part! When this thing started they had a less than a 6/100,000 chance of winning 15 straight games. Now it’s up to 7/100!
They’ve won with great pitching and big contributions from the bottom of the order and the bullpen. It’s unlikely they’ll win 4 more games before they lose and set the team record, but the odds are way better now than they were two weeks ago. 7 in 100, as an old Econ professor use to say, is not like walking outside and getting hit by an asteroid. Sometimes it does happen.
The Tigers are playing excellent baseball but they still have a ways to go to set the record, even if they’ve made it pretty easy on themselves comparatively. Just for fun, the odds of setting the AL and MLB record are pretty fun to consider.
The Tigers have a 0.14% chance of setting the AL record and a 0.075% chance of setting the MLB record starting today. The odds of winning 21 and 22 games in a row starting from zero at odds of 52% for each game comes out to 0.0001% and 0.00006%. Also known as 1 in million or 6 in 10 million.
Even if you assumed the team was a true .600 win percentage team, winning 22 straight games would still only happen 0.0013% of the time. It’s really hard to win a bunch of games in a row. Even if you were a .800 true talent team, you would still only win 22 games in a row 0.7% of the time. Essentially what I’m tell you is that if a team who finished 130-32 played repeatedly in some sort of weird experiment, they would only win 22 consecutive games about 1% of the time.
This is a fun streak. Hold your breath, because we’re getting close to some impressive history and another division title.
Exciting Announcement About Baseball Writing
I am excited to announce that I will be joining SB Nation’s saber-slanted baseball community Beyond The Box Score as a staff writer starting this week. If you’re not familiar with Beyond The Box Score, you like what I do here, and have a baseball interest outside of just the Detroit Tigers, check it out. You can find us on Twitter @BtBScore and all other places the internet is available.
If you a regular reader of New English D, fear not! There will be absolutely no change to our Tigers coverage and no change to our writing about the use of advanced statistics in baseball. If you read us for Tigers coverage, The Nine, Stat of the Week, and all sorts of other stuff, you’ll hardly notice a change. The only difference is a slight reduction in our MLB coverage at large. If I have something to say about another team or player, I’ll now be writing about it at Beyond The Box Score. To facilitate this shift, I will be axing our daily MLB recap series, The Morning Edition. Generally, this has been one of the less popular features on the site and I was planning to wrap it up after this season regardless of my other projects. If you’re broken up about it, I’m sure some sort of begging would get me to bring it back. As far as I can tell, you come to New English D for Tigers analysis and posts about why certain stats are bad and certain stats are good. That’s mostly what we do here.
So that’s it. No more Morning Edition, and no other changes. I’m looking forward to joining BtBS and am just as happy to interact with readers here, there, and on Twitter (@NeilWeinberg44). If you have questions and ideas you want to see researched and discussed, I welcome requests regarding the Tigers and any other MLB team or player.
Finally, thanks for reading. New English D started as something personal for me. I missed writing and it was therapeutic in my first year far away from the Comerica Park (and I guess my family and friends?). I started this site during the 2012 ALCS and for about eight months, it was pretty small and more or less just something I did for myself. And then I wrote about Rick Porcello’s big breakout and a few well-timed plugs from people much more established than me helped us take off. So New English D grew. Tigers fans and baseball fans started coming back and coming in higher numbers. More people visited New English D in July than had visited in total up to that point and it continues to trend up. I didn’t start New English D for fame or page views and that still remains a very, very peripheral goal. I write about baseball because I enjoy it and it’s rewarding. I’m happy you like it and I’m happy it makes you think. Life isn’t always easy, and baseball and baseball writing makes me feel better. I hope it does the same for you.
It’s been fun and I’m certain it will continue to be. If you like New English D, keep coming back and tell your friends. I’ll keep churning out high quality content. If you’re interested in baseball outside of Detroit, check me and my new colleagues out at Beyond The Box Score. As always, Go Tigers.
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